William G. Quigley
Analyst · Merrill Lynch
Thanks, Roger, and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Slide 10 provides a summary of Dana's 2012 second quarter financial performance with a comparison to the same period a year ago. As Roger mentioned, Dana posted a strong second quarter, earning $86 million in net income and delivering diluted adjusted earnings per share of $0.56, a 24% improvement from the second quarter of last year. Sales were about $2 billion for the quarter and slightly higher than a year ago. Similar to our first quarter results on a year-over-year basis, sales in the second quarter were impacted by unfavorable currency and lower Commercial Vehicle production in South America. However, our regional diversity more than offset these headwinds as we experienced higher sales in all other regions of the world. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $225 million, improving $24 million, at 12% over the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA margin rose to 11.5% in the quarter, representing a 110 basis point improvement over the second quarter of 2011 and an 80 basis point improvement sequentially from the first quarter of this year. Net income increased $18 million compared to last year and was up sequentially $16 million from our first quarter 2012 results. This performance represents the fifth consecutive quarter of positive net income. Capital spending this quarter was $37 million, about even with a year ago, and free cash flow was positive $107 million, up $63 million, or a 60% increase versus last year. We are very pleased with the team's performance as we again delivered strong results in a much more challenging macro environment. Over the next few slides, we will highlight certain of these challenges, and how we expect they will impact our business over the remainder of the year. On the next slide, we have provided a year-to-date summary of our financial performance. 2012 consolidated sales were almost $4 billion, representing an increase of $193 million, or nearly 5% compared to 2011. Adjusted EBITDA increased $55 million from the prior year to $437 million year-to-date. Adjusted EBITDA margin totaled 11.1% and represented a 90 basis point improvement over the same period in 2011. 2012 net income of $156 million is significantly higher than a year ago. And even adjusting for the $53 million charge we recognized in 2011 related to our debt refinancing, Dana's net income performance is higher by $65 million. Free cash flow of $70 million, adjusting for the $150 million voluntary pension contribution to our U.S. plans, which we made in the first quarter of this year, was $61 million higher than last year's results. As Roger stated, all in all, very strong performance for the first half of 2012. Turning back to our second quarter results. Slide 12 provides a comparison of our consolidated sales for the second quarter of 2012 and 2011, as well as the change by business segment and the key year-over-year drivers of the change. From a regional perspective, the North America market remains strong across all of our operations, most notably favoring our Light Vehicle Driveline business. Sales in Europe were within our expectations for the quarter. We did experience continued weak demand in South America, in particular Brazil, principally impacting our Commercial Vehicle Driveline business. Adjusting for currency, all business segments other than Commercial Vehicle, posted year-over-year sales growth as highlighted in the lower left of this slide. On the lower right of this slide, we have highlighted the key year-over-year drivers of the change in our consolidated sales. Volume and mix contributed $88 million, even with the lower production environment in Brazil. Currency lowered sales by $122 million on a year-over-year basis, reflecting a stronger U.S. dollar compared to most other currencies. We expect currency to continue to be a headwind for the remainder of the year. Other includes the impact of material recoveries, pricing and other items, which on a year-over-year basis increased sales by $50 million. Slide 13 provides a comparison of adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter of 2012 and 2011. Adjusted EBITDA of $225 million for the quarter was an improvement of $24 million, or 12%, compared to the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA margin increased to 11.5%, up from 10.4% in the second quarter of 2011, principally due to volume and mix gains, as well as the net impact of our ongoing net cost improvement initiatives. On a business segment basis, Light Vehicle posted the most significant improvement, up $16 million compared to a year ago. If you recall from last quarter, we guided that Light Vehicle would improve margins during the course of 2012. And I will review the performance of each of our business segments in more detail on the next slide. At the bottom right of this slide, we have highlighted what drove the change in adjusted EBITDA on a year-over-year basis. The impact of volume and mix was favorable in the quarter by about $20 million, reflecting about a plus-20% contribution margin. Currency, including both transaction and translation impacts, lowered adjusted EBITDA by $6 million in the quarter. Performance includes our material recovery, pricing and cost control initiatives and was a net positive $10 million in the second quarter compared to a year ago. Partially offsetting our performance in the quarter were higher raw material costs and certain 2011 nonrecurring insurance recoveries that benefited last year's second quarter. We highlight our business segment results on Slide 14. In Light Vehicle, sales were up 12%, while segment EBITDA increased 27% for the quarter compared to the prior year. Segment EBITDA margin for the quarter of 10.3% was 110 basis points higher than a year ago and 160 basis points higher than the first quarter of this year. Volume and mix and the net impact of raw material recovery and pricing initiatives offset the impact of currency. This performance is in line with the guidance we provided last quarter, and that we expect our margins to improve back to more normal levels throughout the remainder of this year. Commercial Vehicle experienced lower sales of $70 million or a decrease of 12%, principally reflecting continued market softness in Brazil and the impact of currency. Even with the sales decline, segment EBITDA increased 4% compared to last year, resulting in an 11.1% margin. Production volumes and mix in North America and to a lesser extent Europe, as well as pricing and material recovery actions all contributed to this improvement. Off-highway turned in another strong quarter as sales increased 3%, even with a currency headwind of plus $40 million compared to last year, largely reflecting higher demand in Europe. Segment EBITDA increased $5 million for a margin of 13.1%, an 80 basis point improvement over the second quarter of last year. This is also an increase of more than 190 basis points sequentially from our first quarter. Off-highway benefited from higher demand and margin improvement initiatives. Power Technologies sales in the quarter were lower than a year ago by about $7 million, of which currency represented a $16 million headwind. Adjusting for currencies, sales increased $9 million, principally reflecting the increased volume of both North America and Asia-Pacific. Segment EBITDA was even with a year ago, although a 30 basis point improvement. Slide 15 provides our free cash flow performance for the quarter. Free cash flow in the second quarter was positive $107 million, compared to $44 million in the same quarter a year ago. Working capital was a use of $55 million of cash in the quarter as production volume remained relatively high, although an improvement compared to the prior year. We do continue to expect working capital to be at moderate use for the full year. Capital spending was $37 million and in line with last year. Cash outflows for interest and taxes were $9 million in the quarter, equal to a year ago. On a sequential basis, the decrease from first quarter 2012 is attributable to the semiannual interest payments on our unsecured notes, which are due on the first and third quarters of each year. For the full year, we expect cash income taxes to be still around $100 million. Restructuring of $8 million was flat to last year and for the full year, we expect restructuring cash outflows to be about $50 million. Finally, Other includes the impacts of changes in all other assets and accruals and was down slightly on a year-over-year basis. On a year-to-date basis, free cash flow adjusted for the $150 million voluntary pension contribution we made in the first quarter of this year was positive $70 million, an improvement of $61 million compared to the previous year. Turning to Slide 16. Our balance sheet remains strong at the end of June. Total cash on hand, including marketable securities of $60 million, was $941 million, and our net debt was $13 million. To the right of this slide, we highlight the changes to our overall liquidity from year end 2011 to the second quarter of 2012. At the end of June, there were no borrowings outstanding under our U.S. and Europe revolving credit facilities and availability under these agreements stood at $488 million. Our liquidity profile enables us to continue to execute our operating strategy, both near and longer term, as well as provide a return to our shareholders. Slide 17 provides an update of our global vehicle production estimates for full year 2012, and I'd like to highlight a few items included therein. In North America, we expect Light Vehicle production to be unchanged in the range of 14 million to 14.5 million units. We also estimate full-year light truck production to remain stable compared to our prior outlook. We are adjusting our North American heavy truck production estimate down a bit, and we are now expecting Class 8 truck production in the range of 270,000 to 280,000 units for 2012. While we continue to monitor Europe closely, given the current economic environment and uncertainty, we are maintaining our full year production outlook for both light vehicle and medium/heavy truck compared to our prior estimates, although we believe that final production will be at the lower end of the range on the light vehicle front. For South America, while there was a slight increase in medium/heavy truck production in Brazil from the first to second quarter, this market has not staged the recovery that we previously expected. We now expect full-year truck production to be lower than a year ago by almost 30%, which is reflected in our revised production estimates for the region. We have also lowered Asia-Pacific medium/heavy truck production due primarily to the slower market in China. As you know, changes in the China heavy truck market have the largest impact on our DDAC joint venture, which has been significantly impacted through the second quarter. DDAC's year-to-date sales are $378 million, 25% lower than a year ago, reflecting the current market environment. In the off-highway market, we are maintaining our previous production estimates. We do see some softening in Europe and China, although some positive trends in North America. All in all, we are not expecting significant changes at this time. I would like to take a moment to talk about our expectations for the second half of 2012 compared to our first-half actual results, which is summarized in Slide 18. On this slide we have outlined the 3 main drivers that take us to our full-year guidance. First is currency. We expect currency to remain a headwind for the rest of the year and have revised our currency assumptions. As an example, we are now forecasting the USD/euro rate at about $1.21 for the rest of the year. The impact of currency on sales is expected to be in the range of $100 million to $130 million and adjusted EBITDA to be about $5 million to $10 million. The next driver is volume, mix and other. We expect sales to be low in the second half of 2012 when compared to our first-half results, in the range of $130 million to $185 million, for a number of reasons. First, we have lowered our production assumptions for Class 8 trucks in North America, which impacts our second-half expectations. Off-highway sales will be lower in the second half of the year, reflecting normal seasonal demand for agricultural, as well as overall Europe demand due to summer and holiday shutdowns. As we mentioned last quarter, in Light Vehicle, we have planned legacy programs rolling off in the second half of this year. On an adjusted EBITDA basis, these roll-offs have a much lower margin profile than our base business. As we progress into the second half, we expect our operational improvements will partially offset the pressures of currency and volume. Our operating model drives us to adapt to the ever-changing market conditions while maintaining our margins. The final driver is the impact of one prior divestiture and one potential divestiture. Together, these will impact sales in the amount of $45 million to $60 million and $5 million to $10 million of adjusted EBITDA in the second half 2012. In 2010, as you'll recall, we divested the majority of our structures business, but retained one facility that was in a planned wind down. That facility will cease production in the third quarter of this year. And last quarter, we disclosed our intent to divest our leisure products operation, the small off-highway operation in North America represents about $50 million in annual sales. So to summarize, 3 main drivers, currency, volume and mix and divestitures lead us to a second half sales forecast that is lower by $275 million to $375 million from our first-half results. We expect adjusted EBITDA to be lower by $35 million to $55 million in the second half of 2012, yet we expect our operational improvements will enable us to continue to maintain our overall margins. Let's turn to Slide 20, which summarizes our updated full-year guidance. For the items we discussed on the previous slide, we are revising our 2012 full-year sales outlook to a range of $7.5 billion to $7.6 billion, essentially flat to last year. We are also revising our full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to $820 million to $840 million, which represents a $55 million to $75 million improvement in EBITDA over our actual 2011 performance. We expect the adjusted EBITDA margin to be approximately 11% for 2012, which is at the upper end of our previous guidance. We have slightly lowered our full year capital spending, which we now expect to be in the range of $210 million to $230 million. And we expect full-year free cash flow to be greater than $200 million, adjusting for the $150 million voluntary U.S. pension cash contribution made earlier in the year. We appreciate your support, and now I'm going to turn the call back over to the operator for any questions. Thank you very much.