Randall C. Stuewe
Analyst · Canaccord Genuity
Yes. I mean, for the most part, I mean, the west -- exports have been very, very slow. I mean, year-over-year, you kind of have to look back to Europe as being an importer of used cooking oil. I mean, I think if you follow the trade rags out there and anything, you're seeing that as Europe modifies their biofuel programs away from crop-based fuels, essentially, that's your decoder ring says that's for protecting the rapeseed farmer over there. So we don't see much hope of material going into Europe anytime soon. From a standpoint, the biggest impact, John, when you step back from this thing, and we spent a lot of time internally discussing it, we've got a couple -- 3 or 4 things that kind of created what may be, the euphemism, the perfect storm. But the #1 issue for us has been the amount of corn oil that the ethanol industry has generated in 2012. As they've learned to use enzymes in centrifugal separations to improve their yields, we've seen that business go from 0.5 billion pounds to 1 billion to 1.5 billion pounds to really, no tracking out there, somewhere between 1.5 billion and 2 billion pounds. It’s a high asset product, 10% to 14% asset. And it competes directly for the feed fat formulations that our fats used to go into. So we had 2 people competing for 1 pound of business, number one. Number two, the feed industry, much as we've talked or the animal production industry, which then translates to feed industry, always begins to look at alternatives when there's extreme volatility in one of their inputs. In this case, as fats moved around in 2011 and 2012, the industry has moved and started to use a lot of different enzymes into the feed rations. That reduced the need for energy derived from a calorie of fats. So to explain that, I can't do anymore than I did. It's a developing situation. But at the end of the day, we're not sure how much impact it's had, but we're certain it's had some. And that's explained by the amount of discount we are on a caloric basis to a bushel of corn today. Exports, drying up. I mean, the amount of corn or the fats that went to Europe, we lost about 0.5 billion pounds that was being exported to Europe that's backed up here in the country. All of this is good for Diamond Green Diesel. And obviously, as we've looked at the economics, it's certainly something that we wished the plant was running every day, not only from a new demand point but from a margin point. But overall, the West Coast was weaker than the Midwest. Just certainly less animals to feed out there. And when you don't have exports, you got to move against the grain.