Earnings Labs

Donaldson Company, Inc. (DCI)

Q2 2017 Earnings Call· Wed, Mar 1, 2017

$87.71

-2.32%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

-1.66%

1 Week

-3.05%

1 Month

-0.87%

vs S&P

+0.81%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Denise and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Donaldson’s Q2 Fiscal Year 2017 Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. Brad Pogalz, you may begin your conference.

Brad Pogalz

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining Donaldson’s fiscal 2017 second quarter earnings conference call. With me today are Tod Carpenter, President and Chief Executive Officer and Scott Robinson, Chief Financial Officer. This morning, Tod and Scott will walk through the details of our second quarter performance, the drivers of our increased guidance for fiscal 2017 and provide an update on some of our strategic initiatives. During today’s call, we may reference non-GAAP metrics such as adjusted earnings per share. You can find a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP metrics within the schedules attached to this morning’s press release. Also, for reference, we posted a schedule on our Investor Relations website showing the year-over-year sales change with and without the impact from currency translation. I want to remind everyone that any forward-looking statements made during this call are subject to risks and uncertainties, the most important of which are described in our press release and SEC filings. Now I will turn the call over to Tod Carpenter. Tod?

Tod Carpenter

Analyst

Thanks Brad. Good morning, everyone. We are pleased with the results we delivered during the first half of the fiscal year. We now expect to generate full year sales and profit above our original forecast. Scott will cover the guidance in more detail but the midpoints of our new ranges implies sales will be up 3% from last year and adjusted EPS will be up about 8%. I want to thank our Donaldson employees for their contributions so far this year. They’ve done an excellent job executing our strategic priorities and meeting the needs of our customers. Everyday our employees around the world demonstrate the innovation, value and stability that Donaldson provides. I sincerely appreciate the commitment they have shown and their efforts are reflected in our strong performance. In second quarter total revenue was $551 million, up 6.4% from last year in dollars and 7% in local currency. The strength in the quarter was entirely driven by the Engine segment which was up 13% as we compared against a very soft quarter last year. Within Engine there was clear evidence that our strategy to win innovative first fit programs and grow our replacement parts business is working. In the quarter, we also saw some positive macro trends with restocking being the most notable. As an aside, I feel compelled to add a bit of restraint to the recent enthusiasm regarding market conditions. Beyond restocking the signs of stabilization are becoming more apparent; key measures like commodity prices, rig counts and industrial production all appear to be moving in the right direction. While these trends are encouraging there is still uncertainty relating to the timing of sustainable demand driven growth. The mixed outlooks provided by our large customers reinforce the point that it is unlikely that we will see a…

Scott Robinson

Analyst

Thanks, Tod. Good morning everyone. We are pleased with the quarter, as we converted a 6.4% sales increase in second quarter to a sharp increase in net earnings, as we saw better absorption and expense leverage. Our Q2 EPS of $0.35 was up 25% from last year on a GAAP basis and 20.7% when compared with last years adjusted EPS. As a reminder, the prior GAAP metrics included about $1 million of one-time charges. These items reduced second quarter 2016 GAAP EPS by $0.01 and operating margin by about 30 basis points. Our second quarter 2017 operating margin grew to 12.6% from last year's GAAP and adjusted rates of 10.4% and 10.7% respectively. The improvement from last year split fairly evenly between gross margin and operating expense. Higher fixed cost absorption drove the gross margin up to 34.1% while the expense ratio of 21.5% reflects leverage on the sales volume that was partially offset by a headwind from incentive compensation. Our effective tax rate in the quarter increased to 29.8% from 23.0% in 2016. The prior rate was artificially low due to retroactive benefits from the FAST [ph] tax act and other discrete items. Additionally the mix of earnings lowered the rate last year and pushed this year's rate up. We continue to manage our balance sheet with discipline. We ended the quarter with a gross debt-to-EBITDA leverage ratio of about 1.5 times, right in line with our long-term targets. Compared with last year, receivables are up slightly and inventory is down more than 5%. We are pleased with how we have kept working capital in check, while managing the sales increase. During the second quarter, we returned $23 million to our shareholders through dividends and invested another $10.5 million to repurchase 0.2% of our outstanding shares. So far this…

Tod Carpenter

Analyst

Thanks Scott. To summarize our sentiment we are encouraged by overall end market conditions but not yet confident that sustainable market growth is right on the horizon. We are however confident in our strategic priorities and our ability to maintain our focus on those things that are within our control. More specifically we continue to act with the future in mind. Our sales teams are in this field building and deepening our customer relationships while our engineers are developing new and innovated filtration techniques and products. The combination of their efforts is perfectly aligned with our strategy, win new innovative first-fit business to drive sales of replacement parts. Over the past few year our customers have become increasingly interested in signing longer-term supply agreements with us because they see how our strategy creates value for them. We used to discuss two or three year contracts but now we are talking about arrangements that can last up to 10 years resulting in strong customer relationships. The strategy begins with the innovative first-fit wins and we continue to be pleased with the in-roads we are making. Our win rates for new programs are at or above historical levels. Importantly a large portion of those wins are incremental business for Donaldson and we have a big pipeline of new opportunities. In liquid for example, first-fit wins with our innovative Synteq XP media are starting to show up in revenue. This product effectively addresses challenges created by high fuel injector pressure and increasing use of low sulfur and bio-diesel. Although the dollars are still small our Select Fuel business which leverages Synteq XP media has increased by nearly 50% so far this year. We are also excited about the progress with down flow evolution in the industrial segment. As I mentioned early in the…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Nathan Jones with Stifel. Your line is open.

Nathan Jones

Analyst

Good morning, Tod, Scott, Brad.

Tod Carpenter

Analyst

Good Morning.

Nathan Jones

Analyst

I wonder if we could just start a little bit in the Engine business there, clearly strong sales, clearly a big increase in your forecast for the year. Could you give us a little bit more color on what you think is fundamental market improvement there versus customer restocking and maybe how long you think that restock could last?

Tod Carpenter

Analyst

Sure, this is Tod. Relative to restocking and where we are in the cycle of restocking it’s really tough to say. What we have seen clearly is good execution and share gain. We’ve seen restocking. As far as the third component end market increase, really unclear at this time. On the restocking I want to remind you that our sales on the independent channel are roughly 60% of our aftermarket and our OES channel is 40% and you’ll see less of a restocking phenomenon in the independent channel than you will on the OES and we are seeing it on the OES. So where we are within that particular cycle of restocking, it’s not sure, we’re not sure.

Nathan Jones

Analyst

Historically could you give us some color on maybe an average length of the restocking cycle, just give us some kind of idea of maybe how long to expect on that?

Tod Carpenter

Analyst

Again it’s just unclear, we’re looking at what happened in this quarter as an acute event. And really we kind of shrug that off, we take care of our customers. We’re really focused on them make sure that our delivery rates are where they need us to be in order to strengthen our long term relationships, but as far as the longevity of the restocking it’s really tough to say.

Nathan Jones

Analyst

Okay, fair enough.

Brad Pogalz

Analyst

Nathan, this is Brad. One point I’d add on the historic side, just to give you a context when things were going the other way a couple of years ago we were talking about the old rules of thumb on destocking where typically one to two quarters, and then it ended up being 4, 5, 5.5, 6 quarters where we saw more aggressive destocking. So I think part of what’s happened in the market in the last couple of years is some of those old paradigms have changed as well which clearly adds to the uncertainty.

Nathan Jones

Analyst

Okay, understood and then just a follow up question on the mining market. I think you said you’re still expecting that to be down mid-single digits this year. I know that does drive some outsize off the market in that. I think people are starting to get more positive on the mining market. Can you talk about what you’re seeing there and what the expectations are going forward, maybe added to 2018 if you have any ideas there?

Tod Carpenter

Analyst

Sure, I think what you see are articles about the actual mining operators and producers like the Rio Tintos of the world coming out a little more positive on their balance sheet recovery et cetera, and so that’s getting people more positive about the mining sector. But for us it’s really about vehicle utilization and overall quantities of that product, that’s been shipped. And so we continue to look for vehicle utilization. You are looking at highly dependent, look forward in highly dependent mining based economies like Australia, South Africa et cetera. And then it’s still a little modest out there and mixed. So we did not change our projections on mining as a direct result of lack of clarity.

Nathan Jones

Analyst

Have you seen any directional change there at all?

Tod Carpenter

Analyst

No.

Nathan Jones

Analyst

Okay, thanks very much for the help.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Brian Drab with William Blair. Your line is open.

Brian Drab

Analyst · William Blair. Your line is open.

Hey, good morning, thanks for taking my questions.

Tod Carpenter

Analyst · William Blair. Your line is open.

Good morning.

Brian Drab

Analyst · William Blair. Your line is open.

Good morning. First, just on I guess a little bit more on the restocking, I'm looking at the aftermarket forecast and just looking at first half of fiscal ’17 versus second half of fiscal ’17 and the guidance that you just gave us, where I think you said up high single-digits to low double-digits for the year. And that would put aftermarket up about 8% in the second half of ’17 versus the first half and that seems sort of like just typical seasonality and I'm just wondering if you can comment, does that increase second half over first half in your mind and your model contemplate just typical seasonality or is there continued restocking and is there I guess potentially upside to that number if we see continued restocking?

Tod Carpenter

Analyst · William Blair. Your line is open.

Brian, I think you’ve analyzed that correct. We would look for the normal seasonality. We built that within our guidance here and that's the way we really look at the aftermarket activity. We see -- we really don't know where we are in this restocking channel if you will, in cycle and so consequently we're really a bit more business as usual on the predictability of things and that's what you're interpreting in the guidance. So I think that's fine.

Brian Drab

Analyst · William Blair. Your line is open.

Okay. Thanks and then I guess, related to predictability and visibility, I'm not sure if this is a great question, because I know you many, many data points that you look at to solve the market and competitive landscape. But does that acquisition of CLARCOR in anyway takeaway meaningful important indicator data points that you had -- I mean that you previously tracked to keep an eye on the market in the competitive landscape?

Tod Carpenter

Analyst · William Blair. Your line is open.

As far as the way we view the market and the way that we overall forecast the market, it does not, right. Obviously, it takes away just a data point of competitive analysis of how we're doing as compared to a competitive, but as far as the macro trends and how we operate Donaldson company and what we look for within our forecasting, it doesn't change anything.

Brian Drab

Analyst · William Blair. Your line is open.

All right, great and then last one from me, you mentioned the SynTech Product again and that the dollars are still small, but I wonder if you can tell us a little bit more about which products and markets are driving the great growth in liquid filtration and are you taking share there and if you could tell us what percent of total sales, liquid sales account for today given, it sounds like you're seeing great growth in that -- with that product line?

Tod Carpenter

Analyst · William Blair. Your line is open.

Sure, Brian. The overall share gain that we're experiencing is in fuel. We've been talking to you about fuel and our competitive advantage with some of our innovative technologies that we created over the last three, four, five years and you're starting to see that come forward. We've highlighted that story for quite some time and you're really now seeing that come into production. So we would look to build on that, based upon the share, the clear share gains that we have had in that segment and so it's really fuel driven.

Brad Pogalz

Analyst · William Blair. Your line is open.

Brian, this is Brad. I'll give you the stats on it. liquid is about a third of total engine and the fuel lube business Tod is talking about is a little more than half of that.

Brian Drab

Analyst · William Blair. Your line is open.

Okay. And liquid as a percent of total sales today, and maybe compared to what it was a year or two ago?

Brad Pogalz

Analyst · William Blair. Your line is open.

I have to do the math, it's again about a third of total engine, but where it was…

Brian Drab

Analyst · William Blair. Your line is open.

Okay, and that's all -- that's the only place that we have liquid and so you are saying it's all in engine, right, right. So okay.

Brad Pogalz

Analyst · William Blair. Your line is open.

So liquid in total this year is up in the low teens, so versus a year ago we're – we continue to do quite well in this business.

Brian Drab

Analyst · William Blair. Your line is open.

Great. Okay.

Tod Carpenter

Analyst · William Blair. Your line is open.

Yes, yeah in the industrial segment, Brian, you see us going after liquid with things like our LifeTec products and other. So you will see our liquid based strategy really starting to go over to the industrial side as well in quarters to come.

Brian Drab

Analyst · William Blair. Your line is open.

Okay. All right, great, thank you.

Tod Carpenter

Analyst · William Blair. Your line is open.

Thanks Brian.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Charlie Brady with SunTrust Robinson Humphrey. Your line is open.

Charles Brady

Analyst · SunTrust Robinson Humphrey. Your line is open.

Hey thanks, good morning guys.

Tod Carpenter

Analyst · SunTrust Robinson Humphrey. Your line is open.

Good morning, Charlie.

Charles Brady

Analyst · SunTrust Robinson Humphrey. Your line is open.

I wanted to dig into a little bit more on the off-road piece of engine. I mean clearly was -- you've touched on a little bit, but I guess I'd just like to a get a little more deeper in granularity into kind of where you're seeing on that, and you talked about some of the restocking but that sounds more like an aftermarket phenomenon then on OE side. I'm just trying to understand the strength on the off-road business from an OE perspective, it just seems a little stronger than we would have thought it would have been to coming into this quarter?

Tod Carpenter

Analyst · SunTrust Robinson Humphrey. Your line is open.

Charlie this is Tod. It's actually stronger than we have predicted in our models as well. And I think the primary comp when you go year-to-year is last year we had year-end shutdowns and extended year-end shutdowns as it was a pretty difficult moment, and you saw across all sectors of the off-road really managing finished goods inventories, and therefore producing less. We did not see those extended shutdowns this year. So in a way it's kind of early easy comps year-over-year but really what carries that strength is less shutdowns across all sectors ag, construction and mining.

Charles Brady

Analyst · SunTrust Robinson Humphrey. Your line is open.

Okay. That's helpful understanding that, so I guess I would take from that then, I you alluded to it going into the second half, you don’t really have that same phenomenon. So the rate of increase may be stronger than it was otherwise going to be we thought. But you’re not going to get the similar types of surprising pop to the upside in the second half just because you don’t have the similar phenomenon on shutdown comp, is that correct?

Tod Carpenter

Analyst · SunTrust Robinson Humphrey. Your line is open.

That’s correct. That’s the way we view it and that analysis is what we built in guidance.

Charles Brady

Analyst · SunTrust Robinson Humphrey. Your line is open.

Okay. And just on the gas turbine business, on the order delays, it sounds that that's pushed into 2018, is it in fact order delays or you are seeing things may be being pushed out, when you are saying delayed, delayed to date unknown type of delay as opposed to six, eight month type of timeframe.

Tod Carpenter

Analyst · SunTrust Robinson Humphrey. Your line is open.

Two types of delays. So we’ve seen projects that are in hand move out of this fiscal into next fiscal year. But we’ve also seen quotes that were expected to be awarded move out much further as well.

Charles Brady

Analyst · SunTrust Robinson Humphrey. Your line is open.

Okay, thank you. That’s helpful, thanks.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Matthew Paige with Gabelli and company. Your line is open.

Matthew Paige

Analyst · Gabelli and company. Your line is open.

Good morning everybody. Just wanted to touch on some points, kind of what you brought up earlier. Have you evaluated, what kind of impact you would see from the administration's tax proposals?

Tod Carpenter

Analyst · Gabelli and company. Your line is open.

Yeah, I mean we’ve been following that closely. I mean, I provided a little bit of additional information this quarter to discuss, the fact that Donaldson is a net exporter, out of the U.S. So we feel like we’re well positioned there. I am also indicated that our of our cash sits outside of the U.S. so any sort of repatriation changes, we would love to take advantage of. And you know obviously a lower corporate tax rate would help our company. So we feel like we sit in a strong position, in relation to the various tax changes that have been considered and we continue to monitor that every day.

Matthew Paige

Analyst · Gabelli and company. Your line is open.

Great. And then how do you view a potential boost in infrastructure spending effecting Donaldson's products in your end market

Tod Carpenter

Analyst · Gabelli and company. Your line is open.

We are really pleased that the administration is taking look at boosting infrastructure spending. However that would not affect our fiscal ’17 typically, as I want to remind you that we’d end in -- our fiscal year ends July 31st. So any infrastructure spending boost by the time it would roll through the overall end market, would likely be in future fiscal years.

Matthew Paige

Analyst · Gabelli and company. Your line is open.

Got it. And then the last question from me is obviously on road class 8 has been under pressure, but seeing some signs of life in envisioned orders. Could you may be provide some color on how your conversations with customers there have gone?

Tod Carpenter

Analyst · Gabelli and company. Your line is open.

I think it’s really just more bouncing along at the current levels and everybody trying to understand when the U.S. base market which has really driven so much of the headwinds here, when that U.S. market will start to see a turn. We are really with all of our on-road OE's more fixated on winning future business and winning new platforms than any kind of euphoria about end market turn around.

Brad Pogalz

Analyst · Gabelli and company. Your line is open.

Matthew this is Brad, one thing I would add is just looking at ACT data I guess from our point of view the other positive that’s varied in some of this declines is that, the forecast as they’ve been moving through the year are coming down at a less dramatic pace. I think a year ago the quarterly forecast from -- were moving down by 10% or 15% or 20% each quarter from what they thought, just 90 days ago. And now that seems to a stabilized. Still declining production but at least the forecast seemed to have a better handle on it.

Matthew Paige

Analyst · Gabelli and company. Your line is open.

Great. Thanks for the time.

Tod Carpenter

Analyst · Gabelli and company. Your line is open.

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Richard Eastman with Robert W. Baird. Your line is open.

Richard Eastman

Analyst · Robert W. Baird. Your line is open.

Yes. Good morning and congrats on the nice surprise, nice quarter. I am sure you’ve breathed a little bit sign of relief here. I have just a quick question, when I look at the geographic growth rates, kind of by segment engine and industrial what maybe strikes me a little bit here is EMEA and the strength in EMEA across the board. Is did -- from a geographic stand point was EMEA the biggest may be surprised to you and is there a macro perspective that you could overlay on to what amounted to 10% growth rate, local currency

Tod Carpenter

Analyst · Robert W. Baird. Your line is open.

No, I don’t think EMEA really surprised. If you take a look at our previous calls I have been talking about the gains we have been making in our after-market strategy and pressing forward with our replacement parts businesses across EMEA and they have been executing very well on those strategies for some time and to a larger extent that really just a microcosm of our comprehensive plan for the year, which is grow replacement parts to offset the headwinds we should experience in the first fit, and really all segments all regions in the company are performing quite well there. So the things that I would suggest about EMEA is that throughout all of this it's held up in the core base businesses a bit stronger than for example the U.S. region cycled down much heavier and there was a less of a drop in Europe. So I think overall we’re pretty proud of the execution across our European organization.

Richard Eastman

Analyst · Robert W. Baird. Your line is open.

I understand. And then just a quick question as well. Do you have any visibility, when you look at the aftermarket business and the nice kind of bounce there, do you have any visibility into the sell-through in that channel versus your sell-in this quarter?

Tod Carpenter

Analyst · Robert W. Baird. Your line is open.

We don’t Rick, and that’s what really creates the difficultly for us to predict where we are in any kind of an acute event like a restocking.

Richard Eastman

Analyst · Robert W. Baird. Your line is open.

Okay, and then just maybe last question. Really good incremental EBIT leverage in the quarter and obviously we’re surprised here with the restock and just the acceleration here and the upside in the revenue. As we go -- as we push forward over the next, call it 12 months so we capture the first half of next year, should we expect that incremental to settle down more in the 25 to 30 range or, how do you think about that, because you obviously do reinvest if you feel there is some sustainability in the revenue top line. So should that be the way we’re thinking about the incremental here moving forward?

Scott Robinson

Analyst · Robert W. Baird. Your line is open.

Hi, Rick, this is Scott. So I mean we were pleased with the incremental improvement we delivered in the first half. We did have a pretty good lift in sales. We have taken our guidance up a little bit on increased sales for the last half of the year. So we are comfortable with the current guidance and as we have always said, we believe that we can slowly improve our profit on increasing sales and that something we’re going to work on everyday. We do have some headwinds coming this quarter, as I mentioned, we have some variable comp that we’re going to have to absorb. We do have some additional margin costs associated with suddenly increase in demand that being freight you know and maybe some additional cost in the plant that we have to manage. But at the end of the day we believe we can slowly increase incremental margins on improving sales.

Richard Eastman

Analyst · Robert W. Baird. Your line is open.

And is there any issue, Scott, or any concern around any materials inflation, materials cost inflation at the cost to goods sold end?

Scott Robinson

Analyst · Robert W. Baird. Your line is open.

Yeah, there is certainly some inflation coming. We monitor our commodity prices every day and they are providing a little bit of a headwind going forward. We work to mitigate that, but that’s something that we are aware of.

Richard Eastman

Analyst · Robert W. Baird. Your line is open.

Okay, okay, very good and thank you and congrats again, nice quarter.

Scott Robinson

Analyst · Robert W. Baird. Your line is open.

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Laurence Alexander with Jefferies. Your line is open.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is open.

Hi, good morning this is Dennis on for Lauren. You mentioned that Ag was going to be down mid-single digits, could you provide some color what you are seeing there, I mean are trough conditions forming or is it just not showing any signs of firming up, just any insight?

Tod Carpenter

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is open.

Sorry, what was the last part Den. Not sure we got your whole question. Could you please repeat that?

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is open.

Sure, I think you indicated that Ag was down mid-single digits. I was wondering if any if trough conditions are starting to form, if there is any signs of strength at all?

Tod Carpenter

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is open.

Within Ag, I think you see Deer for example they took up their latest forecast and so they gave, they signaled some positivity out there. So we do hear those kind of data points and we -- but we did take that into account, because it's as you look outside the U.S. it’s a little bit more of a troubled story with other large based customers. So overall there is clearly mixed signals across the Ag market, and there is just not clarity. And so we just did not feel comfortable altering where we currently stand on ag as we don't see it in our backlogs and we don't really translate that obviously therefore into revenue.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is open.

Okay. And then the cost you removed through last year's restructuring or 2016 restructuring, is there any chance both cost could seep back in as some of -- as things kind of accelerate or some of your end markets accelerate?

Tod Carpenter

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is open.

Sure. We said there was $12 million of benefit coming into this year. Those are structural cost. I would say that we worked to take out. Sales continue to accelerate. We are certainly going to have to address our expense levels. And some of our expenses are fixed, others are variable. But in general I think if revenues are way up then our expenses are going to have to address that. We're cautious in adding infrastructure. So we're very careful about adding in. but we will continue to invest in the future of the company on sales increases.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is open.

Okay. and then finally, with your e-commerce efforts, that's coming online in the next year or I think you said 2016. Is using e-commerce unusual for the industry? Is that something Donaldson (phon) would have ever looked to before? I was just wondering what the dynamics look like.

Tod Carpenter

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is open.

It's not unusual but for Donaldson it represents a new channel just simply because we're very inconsistent in its usage. Today you could order an e-commerce part in some of our businesses in some of the regions. But you can't order a part over the internet from Donaldson everywhere in the world. And that's the thing we're out to change. There will be multiple models of e-commerce, the engine model for aftermarket because we are distribution based partnership model. We'll keep that intact but there are other businesses also that will have an direct end-market model because that's the way we run that business. And so we are building in the flexibility necessary to arm all of our businesses to really use this e-commerce channel as a positive for growth.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is open.

Great, thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions at this time I turn the call back over to Brad Pogalz.

Brad Pogalz

Analyst

That concludes today's call. I want to thank everyone for listening for their time and interest in Donaldson. I also want thank our employees again. I'm very appreciative with their efforts and because of them I am confident that we can deliver our strategic and financial commitments. Have a good day. Good bye.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.