Earnings Labs

Ducommun Incorporated (DCO)

Q3 2025 Earnings Call· Sat, Nov 8, 2025

$142.61

+0.83%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Ducommun Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Suman Mookerji, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.

Suman Mookerji

Analyst

Thank you, and welcome to the Ducommun's 2025 Third Quarter Conference Call. With me today is Steve Oswald, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer. I'm going to discuss certain limitations to any forward-looking statements regarding future events, projections or performance that we may make during the prepared remarks or the Q&A session that follows. Certain statements today that are not historical facts, including any statements as to future market and regulatory conditions, results of operations and financial projections, including those under our VISION 2027 game plan for investors are forward-looking statements under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and are, therefore, perspective. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors, which could cause actual results to differ materially from the future results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Although we believe that the expectations reflected in our forward-looking statements are reasonable, we can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to have been correct. In addition, estimates of future operating results are based on the company's current business, which is subject to change. Particular risks facing Ducommun include, amongst others, the cyclicality of our end-use markets, the level of U.S. government defense spending, our customers may experience delays in the launch and certification of new products, timing of orders from our customers, our ability to obtain financing and service existing debt to fund capital expenditures and meet our working capital needs, legal and regulatory risks including pending litigation matters generally as well as any potential losses arising from third-party supplication claims related to the Guaymas Performance Center fire that may become material, the cost of expansion, consolidation and acquisitions, competition, economic and geopolitical developments, including supply chain issues, international trade restrictions, the impact of tariffs and elevated interest rates, risks associated with the prolonged U.S. federal government shutdown, the ability to attract and retain key personnel and avoid labor disruptions, the ability to adequately protect and enforce intellectual property rights, pandemics, disasters, natural or otherwise, and risk of cybersecurity attacks. Please refer to our annual report on Form 10-K quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and other reports filed from time to time with the SEC as well as the press release issued today for a detailed discussion of the risks. Our forward-looking statements are subject to those risks. Statements made during this call are only as of the time made, and we do not intend to update any statements made in this presentation, except if and as required by regulatory authorities. This call also includes non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our filings with the SEC for a reconciliation of the GAAP to non-GAAP measures referenced on this call. We have filed our Q3 2025 quarterly report on Form 10-Q with the SEC. I would now like to turn the call over to Steve Oswald for a review of the operating results. Steve?

Stephen Oswald

Analyst

Okay. Thank you, Suman, and thanks, everyone, for joining us today for our third quarter conference call. Today, as usual, I will give an update of the current financial situation of the company, after which, Suman will review our financials in detail. Let me start again on this quarterly call with Ducommun's VISION 2027 game plan for investors as we finalize our third year of execution in Q4 2025. Strategy and vision were developed coming out of the COVID pandemic over the summer and fall of 2022, unanimously approved by Ducommun Board in November 2022, then presented the following month in New York to investors where we got excellent feedback. Since that time, Ducommun's management has been executing the strategy by increasing the revenue percentage of engineered products and aftermarket content, which is at 23% this year, up from 15% in 2022, consolidating our rooftop footprint in contract manufacturing, continuing our focused acquisition program, executing the offloading strategy with defense primes and high-growth segments, driving value-added pricing, expanding content on key commercial aerospace platforms. All of us here as well as my fellow board members continue to have a high level of conviction in the VISION 2027 strategy and financial goals and believe the market catalyst ahead present a unique value creation opportunity for shareholders. The Q3 2025 results show again the strategy initiatives are working with both gross and adjusted EBITDA margins, for example, at record levels with much more opportunity to come for DCO. I'm also very pleased to announce that our next investor conference will be in the fall of 2026 in New York, and we will present the next 5-year vision for DCO, which I believe will be very compelling, I look forward to it. For Q3, I'm pleased to report that revenues reached a new…

Suman Mookerji

Analyst

Thank you, Steve. As a reminder, please see the company's 10-Q and Q3 earnings release for a further description of information mentioned on today's call. As Steve discussed, our third quarter results reflected another record quarter of revenue with strong growth across all our military end markets, including missiles, fixed-wing aircraft, rotorcraft, ground vehicles and radars. Gross margins maintained at record levels established in the first half, and we saw another quarter of record EBITDA. We are nearly at the end of our facility consolidation project, which will drive further synergies into 2026 as we ramp up production of the various product lines that were moved. As Steve highlighted earlier, we also made great progress in continuing to build up our engineered products portfolio with those revenues contributing 23% to our mix this year. These actions, along with our strategic pricing initiatives drove continued gross margin expansion in Q3 and is keeping us on pace to achieve our VISION 2027 goals. Now turning to our third quarter results. Revenue for the third quarter of 2025 was $212.6 million versus $201.4 million for the third quarter of 2024. The year-over-year increase of 6% reflects strong growth in military and space of 13%, driven by increases in missiles, fixed-wing aircraft, military rotorcraft, ground vehicles and radars. This was partially offset by weakness in our commercial aerospace business, mainly driven by lower revenues across large commercial, including both Boeing and Airbus platforms and on business jets. We posted total gross profit of $56.5 million or 26.6% of revenue for the quarter versus $52.7 million or 26.2% of revenue in the prior year period. We continue to provide adjusted gross margins as we had certain non-GAAP cost of revenue adjustment items in the prior year period relating to inventory step-up amortization on our acquisitions.…

Stephen Oswald

Analyst

Okay. Thanks, Suman. Appreciate it. Okay. Just in closing, Q3 was another success, I believe, for DCO and its shareholders to continue driving our strategy while effectively managing the headwind from commercial aerospace. We achieved another quarter of record revenue. Adjusted EBITDA margins and adjusted gross margins were also at record levels of 16.2% and 26.6%, respectively. The company is also well positioned to meet and exceed our VISION 2027 target of 25% plus of engineered product revenues, year-to-date 2025 Q3 at 23%. As everyone knows, driving this percentage as high as possible is our #1 strategic focus and drive here at the company. Finally, with the continued strength in defense activity, the commercial bill rates heading higher, I'm very optimistic about what lies ahead in Q4 and the next few years for our shareholders, employees and other stakeholders. So thank you for listening, and let's go to questions.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Ken Herbert of RBC Capital Markets.

Kenneth Herbert

Analyst

Steve, I just wanted to ask really strong bookings in the quarter within commercial aerospace, can you provide any more detail in terms of what you saw there? And specifically, level set us maybe at what your ship rate is currently on the MAX and maybe how much of a headwind we should think about that into 2026?

Stephen Oswald

Analyst

Yes. Let me just -- thanks, Ken. Good to hear from you, and Suman can jump in as well. We first talk about the build rates. So the MAX build rate is really -- people always talk about Boeing and the build rates, and that's true for us. But we have a lot of business in Spirit. So it's really -- I think we probably have more on the MAX and Spirit than we do at Boeing. We obviously do spoilers direct and we do some other things direct, but we do a lot of stuff for the fuselage at Spirit, that's still down. I mean it's still running, I would say, probably 26, 28 a month, right?

Suman Mookerji

Analyst

That's right. In terms of us shipping our physical product, we're seeing mid-20s to high-20s, as Steve noted. And I would say our -- we want to maintain level load in our factories. So our production, depending on the parts and our view of inventory in the system, our part production may range to between 30 to 40 aircraft per month. So there are times for certain parts where we are continuing to build ahead to balance production in our facilities. We did see growth in bookings across Boeing and Airbus. We got some good additional order inflow for work we do on the nacelles for Airbus, not directly to Airbus, but on Airbus platforms. So there was -- it was good to see the bookings pick up and remaining performance obligations tick up for commercial aerospace. I mean it certainly did for defense as well, but it was good to see that tick up for commercial aerospace as well this quarter.

Stephen Oswald

Analyst

Yes. We're really -- again, we're really happy with the orders and we are really -- would really like to see the activity at Airbus for us. So I think it was strong across the board, Ken, as you know.

Kenneth Herbert

Analyst

If I could, the guide mid-single digit growth for the full year, your comment implies low double-digit growth in the fourth quarter. What are the puts and takes on that mid-single digit? I mean, where could we maybe see upside in the fourth quarter? Where are you still sort of seeing some pressure perhaps as you think about closing out the year?

Suman Mookerji

Analyst

I would say there continues to be pressure with destocking on the commercial aerospace side. So we expect that to continue to be a headwind that we will work through. Medium- to longer-term outlook continues to get more and more positive and brighter, but the immediate impact here in Q4, I think we'll continue to see some pressure there. On the defense side, we continue to see strong activity. We expect that to be the bright spot in Q4 as well, both with order intake and revenues. I think we try to be as balanced as possible with our...

Stephen Oswald

Analyst

And also -- I mean, one of the real bright spots at BA, Ken, you know, the 787, even though they're going to do a lot more down and they have a lot of plans for that is that they've been -- when they get to 8 or 10, which I'm sure they'll get through fairly quickly, that's real money for Ducommun. So we're really -- we're very enthusiastic about that program as well.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Mike Crawford of R. Riley Securities -- or B.Riley Securities.

Michael Crawford

Analyst

Yes. Thank you, B. Riley. So what's that $100 million difference in the RPO and the backlog between that $1.03 billion and the [ $1.116 ].

Stephen Oswald

Analyst

You mean what is the -- where is the...

Suman Mookerji

Analyst

[indiscernible].

Stephen Oswald

Analyst

Yes. So it came evenly between both commercial aerospace as well as defense. So we saw order intake on both fronts, driving the growth in RPO. As we said, in the commercial side, we saw growth with Airbus, but also with on Boeing platforms in order intake. On the defense side, we continue to see strong intake of orders on missile platforms that continue to support our growth there.

Suman Mookerji

Analyst

I think he was asking also the difference with backlog and RPO.

Stephen Oswald

Analyst

The difference between backlog. I'm sorry, Mike, is that what you want?

Michael Crawford

Analyst

Yes.

Stephen Oswald

Analyst

Yes. Okay. So RPO is a GAAP term, right? So that's the remaining performance obligations that is revenue yet to be recognized. Backlog is more linked to shipments. So that's kind of the primary difference. Backlog, we also constrained to a 2-year window. We include forecasts under LTA within backlog. So I would refer you to our 10-K and Q filings where we have kind of given a full and more precise definition of the backlog. But those are the key items that are within backlog, whereas RPO is unconstrained, so there isn't any time period constraint. It's the total remaining orders that are unfulfilled or for which we have not recognized revenue as yet in our financial statements.

Michael Crawford

Analyst

Okay. Yes. That makes sense. And then for Engineered Products, the year-to-date mix was 23%, I think that's the same as it was in the first half. So I just wanted to make sure that was the mix in the third quarter itself. And then if you had any thoughts on whether that is growing faster than the rest of the business in Q4 and/or next year?

Stephen Oswald

Analyst

Yes. So first -- yes, so look, we're really happy from where we came from a couple of years ago, 23% is a good number, hard to do, right? Because you do have -- we have a big contract manufacturing business, right? So you're fighting the percentages. So we're pleased that 23%. We did have -- we've had a good first 9 months. I see that going forward. Now I'd also mention that the upticks last year have been all organic, which has been terrific, right? So what we're using for shareholder money and buying these companies in the last 4, 5, 6 years, actually had doing a fairly good job for the organic growth. So we see that continuing. Obviously, we also have our other leg of our strategy, which is our acquisitions, and that's all going to be Engineered Products in the aftermarket. And that's -- Suman is obviously leading that, along with myself and the rest of the team. So we feel good about it. We've got 9 quarters to go, Mike. So we're confident we're going to beat that number in '25.

Michael Crawford

Analyst

And then last one for me is, so from last time buys, industrial was up in the third quarter, but I imagine that starts to come down and it is down next year, maybe thereafter. And so what do you do with that manufacturing space? Is it -- what does it port over to?

Stephen Oswald

Analyst

All right. I mean that moves primarily to aerospace and defense. And that's the objective behind pruning our industrial business where we're not getting sufficient returns. And we did see, as we noted, slightly higher revenues this quarter. I think it goes back to the run rate we have been seeing in Q1 and Q2 of this year, again, here in Q4. And it kind of -- it will be flattish to slightly down potentially in the future. If we don't make the required margin, we're not going to continue that business.

Suman Mookerji

Analyst

And Mike, goal, all that business are -- its cards. So all that business is circuit cards or CCA. So as that goes down, that goes directly over to Raytheon cards and other cards that we're making for customers. It's primarily out of Appleton, right? This is the Appleton facility. So it's a nice mix where we're just going to -- we have still SMT machines. We have the same people. It's just that -- so it's not like it's in 3 different locations. So it's going to be easy for us.

Operator

Operator

Next question comes from the line of Sam Struhsaker of Truist Securities.

Samuel Struhsaker

Analyst

On for Mike Ciarmoli today. Appreciate you taking the questions. It looks like margins have kind of been nice steadily improving and expanding here. I was just curious if you could give some thoughts from you guys on sort of where you're thinking about kind of the cadence of opportunities to continue to expand those margins might fall both for 2025 and throughout 2026?

Stephen Oswald

Analyst

Yes. It's a good question. And we do expect margins to be stable here for the rest of 2025 and then -- and as we look into 2026, again, we don't provide specific guidance on margin. But what I would say is that a big opportunity for us is to drive the savings from our facility consolidation efforts. So all the product lines that Steve mentioned earlier that we have transitioned from high-cost locations to lower-cost locations are going to ramp up and we get up the learning curve on production with these products, they're going to drive strong savings for us in 2026. So that's going to be a key driver. In addition to the things we do all day, every day, right, we want to get paid for the value we provide and drive strategic pricing. We want to find opportunities to continue to drive cost efficiencies and we want to continue our transition to more engineered products, which improves the revenue mix and drives higher margins. So those will continue. But the big the big nugget there in 2026 is the facility consolidation.

Suman Mookerji

Analyst

Yes. Yes. I think overall, Sam, that's sort of the recipe. We're going to continue to enjoy. We have very good demand in aftermarket in the commercial aerospace. We'll continue to enjoy that. Obviously, we're going to continue to -- where we provide value raised prices each and every year in that area as well as engineered products. So we have a lot of strength there and just more of the same. So we feel good about next year on margins.

Samuel Struhsaker

Analyst

That's great. And if I could just sneak in one other. I'm curious, you guys obviously called out M&A as a point of interest in the past, but just kind of curious about your thoughts on capacity there following this recent litigation expense? And maybe if there's any change in time line there?

Stephen Oswald

Analyst

So we do continue to have availability on our revolver, and we will post the drawdown related to the litigation settlement. We -- our net leverage, as I said earlier, is expected to be low 2s after making that payment. And we continue to generate cash. We'll continue to pay down debt and lower that leverage, and that opens up capacity for us going forward. So we are in discussions with our banks to increase the size of our facilities and extend the tenor of our current facility so that we have more flexibility going forward on being able to execute on acquisitions. So M&A continues to be a focus area for us, and we have and we'll continue to ensure we have sufficient liquidity to be able to execute on that plan.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Tony Bancroft of GAMCO Investors.

George Bancroft

Analyst

Great job as always. Just you talked about Golden Dome. I know it's pretty far out -- it's [ Boeing ] pretty far out there, but your -- a lot of your customers -- a high percentage of your customers are going to be big, probably participants in this program. And have you heard anything initially, maybe what they're telling you so you can begin planning phase or where -- what parts of your business do you think you're going to be most exposed to it?

Stephen Oswald

Analyst

Yes. Well, look, we're -- it's certainly something we're excited about because we are very to your point, very well positioned. Obviously, the missile franchise that we have, depending on what they use, what they deploy. I mean we're pretty much on every missile or pretty close to every missile persist on the RTX side. So we feel great about that. The other positive thing for investors, and I talked about this, it just -- it's happened for reasons like offloading from RTX for the SPY-6 and other things. And really -- we're really starting to build a radar franchise that is gaining more and more traction. That's going to be the other thing, right? I mean, we not only make radar for ground-based installations, I mean something that's exciting that we're thankful that it's going to go forward as the E7 Wedgetail, which we do a lot with for Northrop, it's folks that don't know it's a Boeing plane outfitted for sort of the brain of warfare and so that's on its way as well. So not that it's not goal, but it's all about us being well positioned in missiles and radar. Have we heard a ton about it yet from our customers, no. But we are on everything that we believe is going to be utilized pretty much. So we'll have more on that in the future, Tony.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Noah Poponak of Goldman Sachs.

Noah Poponak

Analyst

I know I guess if I look at the total company organic revenue growth through the year, low single digit in the first half, you're going to exit the year at low double digit and the defense business has had good growth for the year. Aerospace is down with the destocking. I guess as we go into 2026, can '26 look like the exit rate you're going to have here in the fourth quarter because the defense drivers -- I mean, that will be a tougher compare, but the defense drivers sound pretty durable. And then on the aerospace side, you're going to at some point, you're going to link up with Boeing, which will be pretty good growth off pretty easy compares. Can '26 grow double digits, total top line?

Suman Mookerji

Analyst

So we will provide guidance on 2026 early in the year -- we don't typically provide the guidance now. But I would say that commercial aerospace destocking, we expect will continue to have an impact in 2026. I don't think we see ourselves catching up to Boeing production rates in -- at least the first half of 2026, given the amount of inventory held by them and also inventory at our end, right? So it's kind of destocking both at the customer and at our end that we need to work through. So I do agree with you that. I think we are at a trough, but how quickly we move off the trough, we'll have to see based on how quickly destocking gets done here over the next couple of quarters. On the defense side, we do continue to see good order intake and growth in our RPO. So the outlook continues to be positive for defense growth.

Stephen Oswald

Analyst

No, we'll -- just our cadence, we'll -- I think our call is probably the end of February, right? So we will have a full view of our numbers. But I think you bring up a great point about, yes, there are lower comparison, which are going to be good for us, right? And eventually, we are going to sync up. The thing that I'm always a little bit worried about is that Spirit is always little bit a wildcard, still not closed with the purchase, and the fuselages and I don't know how many are back -- backyard these days, and that's more than half of our MAX business, right? So -- but we're very positive, but maybe in the first 6 months, it will be still a little rocky for commercial aero on the BA side.

Noah Poponak

Analyst

Okay. Okay. I guess, how is 4Q growing low double digits if you're seeing that rockiness or the inventory destock for the next 6 to 9 months?

Suman Mookerji

Analyst

Continued strength in our defense business. No, that's a key driver.

Stephen Oswald

Analyst

And a little compare to what, 197? 197 in Q4 last year, we were up 201 in Q3. So a little bit less on the compare there.

Noah Poponak

Analyst

Right. The compares can move around on you, okay. Can you just approximately how much of your revenue at this point on an annual basis is the MAX?

Suman Mookerji

Analyst

So it's -- if you look at large commercial aerospace, it's about -- if you look at Boeing and Airbus, it's about 50% of our total commercial aerospace business and Boeing is more than half of our large commercial. So it's a meaningful portion of our commercial aerospace business, maybe it's still less than 20% of our Commercial Aerospace business today but expected to ramp up.

Stephen Oswald

Analyst

Yes, And it's just -- yes, we're looking at the numbers here. We have a little cheat sheets here. I mean I'll add last year versus this year, year-to-date for the MAX, it's down double digit. So it's a good part of our business, but it has hurt us.

Noah Poponak

Analyst

And then Suman, on the cash flow statement, you've had improvement in the working capital turns year-to-date after that's built up on you over the last few years. Putting the payment aside, do you expect 4Q to be up year-over-year? Or maybe where do you expect the conversion from your adjusted EBITDA to come in for the year on free cash?

Suman Mookerji

Analyst

So we think about free cash flow to adjusted net income, and we are at 73% year-to-date, which is a significant improvement from where we were last year where that same conversion was around 40% and 33% back in 2023. So a significant improvement in free cash flow to adjusted net income conversion for the company. We don't provide specific guidance on cash flow generation, but we expect Q4 to be a continued strong quarter for cash flow generation kind of in line with what we have seen in the past couple of quarters.

Stephen Oswald

Analyst

Yes. And our goal is 100%, which we're working.

Suman Mookerji

Analyst

Our goal is 100%.

Noah Poponak

Analyst

Okay. And what is the cash payment you will make? How much is the cash payment you'll make regarding the litigation in the fourth quarter?

Suman Mookerji

Analyst

So the cash payment that we will make is a net payment to us net of insurance recoveries is just over $95 million.

Noah Poponak

Analyst

Sorry, sorry, in our out?

Suman Mookerji

Analyst

It's payment outflow of $95 million.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. It appears there are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the call back over to Steve Oswald for closing remarks.

Stephen Oswald

Analyst

Okay. Thank you very much. Thanks to everyone for joining us again for the call. Just to wrap things up here, we feel as we head into the end of the year, we feel great about our margins, what we're doing with defense. I mean we disappointed with the destocking and the continued sort of rocky road a little bit with commercial aerospace? The answer is yes. But we know that's our best futures ahead of us. And we're well positioned in capital, well positioned with the customer and look forward to a strong close to 2025 and excellent 2026. So again, all the best. Thank you for joining us, and have a great rest of the day.

Operator

Operator

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.