Earnings Labs

DuPont de Nemours, Inc. (DD)

Q1 2010 Earnings Call· Wed, Apr 28, 2010

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is John and I will be your conference operator today. At this time I would like to welcome everyone to the DuPont 2010 first quarter investor call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks there will be a question-and-answer period. (Operator Instructions) To listen to the webcast, please go to www.dupont.com. Thank you. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Karen Fletcher, Vice President of Investor Relations. Madam you may begin your conference.

Karen Fletcher

President

Thank you John. Good morning and welcome. With me this morning are Ellen Kullman, Chairman and CEO; and Nick Fanandakis, CFO. The slides for today's call can be found on our website at www.dupont.com, along with the news release that was issued earlier today. Please turn to slide one. During the course of this conference call, we will make forward-looking statements. All statements that address expectations or projections about the future are forward-looking statements. Although they reflect our current expectations, these statements are not guarantees of future performance, but involve a number of risks and assumptions. We urge you to review DuPont's SEC filings for a discussion of some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially. We will also refer to non-GAAP measures and request that you please refer to the reconciliation to GAAP statements provided with our earnings news release and on our website. Finally, we've posted supplemental information on our website that we hope is helpful to your understanding of our company's performance. With that, I'll turn the call over to Ellen.

Ellen Kullman

Chairman

Thanks Karen, and good morning everyone. This time last year we were taking aggressive actions to respond to deteriorating market conditions. Our initiatives were aimed and enhancing near term profitability, while preparing to respond to the economic recovery when it came. Today those actions are paying off in the form of streamline business units, a lower cost base, and just as important, much greater customer intimacy, with an ability to respond faster to customer demands. During the first quarter we delivered strong results of $1.24 earnings per share, more than double the first quarter of 2009, and just $0.07 below the first quarter of 2008. I am very pleased with our performance, the way we responded to changing market demands, and our momentum going forward. The forecast for 2010, global industrial production is about a 7% improvement, with recovery rates that very greatly by country and by industry. Many of our polymers and chemical businesses saw a strong demand pickup in the first quarter, magnified by the comparison to a particularly weak first quarter of 2009. Because we stay close to our customers and supply chain, we could better anticipate demand signals. In some cases, our management teams made conscious, thoughtful business decisions to take on cost, in order to keep pace with a strong pickup in demand. Two cases in point; performance chemicals, and performance materials, had volume increases of 30% and 56% respectively. The supply chains were already tight, and these businesses skillfully managed significant challenges to produce and deliver product to keep up with market demand. They were able to, because our customer relationships gave us better visibility into markets and we were able to anticipate demand signals. We believe we were better equipped to meet demand than our competitors, and in some cases gained market share…

Nick Fanandakis

CFO

Thanks Ellen, and good morning everyone. I am delighted to report to you the DuPont has delivered very strong results for the first quarter performance. As the global economy recovers, we grew volume and price up in all regions. This is an outstanding start to what we expect to be a pivotal year for the DuPont company, as we replace pharmaceutical royalties with growth from all other business units. By almost any measure, it’s a solid encouraging performance, especially in light of still recovering global economy. Our teams around the world deliver on their commitments to grow revenue and generate earnings, while continuing to drive cost and capital productivity; all the while staying close to customers, their expectations and their changing needs. I characterize these as encouraging results, because I believe this to be great start to what we all expect to be a very good year for DuPont. I sense a real momentum from all of our business leaders. Given the challenges we faced last year, which I know at times seem very overwhelming, it’s a great feeling to know that this company is emerging stronger, more competitive, and ready to go the distance. We delivered on the first quarter and we are poised for growth throughout 2010. Now I’d like to review the details of the quarter, pointing out our accomplishments versus goals, as well as how our actions are a continuing transition from a recessionary environment to one of growth. Let’s go to slide two. It summarizes earnings per share and sales results. First quarter reported earnings per share were $1.24, up more than twice our earnings of $0.54 in the prior year. Consolidated net sales of $8.5 billion grew up 23% compared to the prior year, reflecting a 19% volume improvement, 2% price increase, 3% favorable…

Ellen Kullman

Chairman

Great, thank you Nick. I’d like to reinforce what Nick just said. When we met with investors last November, each one of our reporting units outlined its business mission, priorities and growth targets through 2012. Our plan is working. Result so far reinforced our confidence that we can meet or exceed our 2012 goals. $1.24, first quarter earnings per share was not the product of this quarter alone. It’s the result of the last six quarters worth of efforts in terms of restructuring, fixed and variable cost productivity, working capital productivity, and most importantly, staying close to our customers and markets. We’ve effectively can reposition the company for the recovery that’s underway right now. As for Ag business you can expect continued growth and margin expansion. We remain committed to deliver 15% segment earnings growth, compounded annually through 2013. Of course, half of our sales for this segment are in seeds, where we see the biggest growth opportunity. The Pioneer North American Leadership team has successfully implemented its reinvestment strategy, building a sales and agronomy force, numbering more than 4,000 strong, complemented by an industry leading of portfolio products. We have a track record of growth in international seed as well, and continue to building on that position. We have a strong R&D pipeline, and are committed to pricing for value, supported by growers who have benefited greatly from our product innovations, tailored to their needs and local conditions. In the end the strategy has delivered volume and price gains, which resulted in strong earnings growth, and will continue to do so. Please turn to slide 13. In summary, we remain focused on execution. Our priorities are outlined on this slide in the form of directives, which are broadly shared with employees. We have a high degree of confidence in…

Karen Fletcher

President

Okay great. John if you will open the lines and remind folks of the procedure.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, we will now begin the question-and-answer session.

Operator

Operator

Frank Mitsch - BB&T Capital Markets

Ellen Kullman

Chairman

Yes, basically I think that’s going to a hold late start in Europe. I think it’s going to be one of the drivers there, so we still see the second quarter being stronger. Frank Mitsch – BB&T Capital Markets: All right, terrific, and then as you look at the electronic segment, obviously a terrific recovery under way there, yet you were talking about flat or Nick was talking about flat growth in the second quarter verses the first quarter. What would be the factors behind that? Why would you know anticipate a continuation of the recovery there?

Ellen Kullman

Chairman

Well, we had a tremendous first quarter, and the growth there has been largely driven from photovoltaics. We are not seeing restocking in the first quarter, so you are not going to have that in the second quarter. So I think sales we see as remaining strong, but by and large on a sequential basis we’ll be pretty flat. Its not going to be kind of any diminution, it’s going to be continued strength in the electronics market, really drive off photovoltaics. This year we see probably about 50% increase in our revenue from PV Frank Mitsch – BB&T Capital Markets: All right, so I guess the way to think about it is that the first quarter saw some restocking as well as pick-up in demand, whereas in the second quarter you are going to see that underlying demand pick up without the kicker of restocking.

Ellen Kullman

Chairman

Exactly Frank, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from David Begleiter from Deutsche Bank; please go ahead. David Begleiter – Deutsche Bank: Hi, good morning. Ellen on AcreMax, are you expecting the approval at 10% refuge reduction, and are you actually selling AcreMax this year, or are you just in some test class performers. Tell us what’s happening with the 2600 test plots out there?

Ellen Kullman

Chairman

Sure, thanks David. The EPA has not announced their decision. We haven’t seen the registration. We do expect it with the next week. The discussions have been very consistent and positive, supporting both refuge in a back, and refuge reduction. So it’s a convenience factors in there as well. Now if I were to get and anticipate based off the discussions, I’d call it at a 90/10 product. Those products yield very, very well versus their conventional counterparts. So we are going to have it out, and demonstration plots, probably around 2600 plots this year, so that farmers can really understand the yield and the capability of this product. So we are very excited about it. David Begleiter – Deutsche Bank: And lastly, your competitor has announced their intention to lower pricing across the entire seed portfolio for 2010, what will your competitive response be in pioneer to that?

Ellen Kullman

Chairman

David Begleiter – Deutsche Bank: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from Laurence Alexander from Jefferies; please go ahead. Amanda Sigouin – Jefferies: Good morning. This is Amanda Sigouin on for Laurence this morning. First off, a question on the seed business; does DuPont have firm market share targets that its plans to defend if compotators become more aggressive in going after share.

Ellen Kullman

Chairman

Well, this year is pretty much played our. Have the seed is in the ground in corn, and farmers have pretty much made there decision. So we see that this year is going to continue to progress the way it has. We have to predict 2011 will bring, because that basically that basically has stilled of what happens in 2010. So we are sticking to our playbook; right product, right acre, the penetration adding, we expect to see one to two points in share gain globally, and we think that based on what we’ve seen so far in the year, we are still confident about that. Amanda Sigouin – Jefferies: Okay, and then just a follow-up. Could we please revisit the trajectory for the pharmaceuticals business, particularly how fast earnings are expected to decelerate in 2011 and 2012?

Nick Fanandakis

CFO

Let me handle that one. As you know, we are now saying that Pharma is going to be about $360 million to $400 million impact for the full year, and we saw $221 of that in the first quarter. So the reminder will be split evenly over each of the remaining quarters. So a third in each of the remaining quarters is our expectation. As you know, Pharma was down about $0.02 year-over-year in earnings per share in the first quarter. Now for the full year, we had about $1 billion in prior year, and as I say, we are expecting about $360 million to$ 400 million this year. So you can see the impact is about that $600 million for the full year. Then as you go forward into 2011, you can take the number that I’m talking about now and you can go by about half, and then in 2012 by about half again. Amanda Sigouin – Jefferies: Great, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from P.J. Juvekar from Citi; please go ahead. P.J. Juvekar – Citi: Yes hi, good morning.

Ellen Kullman

Chairman

Good morning. P.J. Juvekar – Citi: Just quickly on acre and just a follow-up; with all these extra 2600 plots that you are demonstrating your technology, and you’ve got an extra year to prepare, which is 2010, how big would your launch be in 2011 for AcreMax?

Ellen Kullman

Chairman

I think that we’re not going to predict that at this point. Our goal this year is to really allow thousands of farmers to see the yield and the productivity that AcreMax 1 provides, and I think that is really going to build the excitement around what we can do in 2011. Thanks P.J. P.J. Juvekar – Citi: Just on M&A that now some of these businesses have rebounded strongly, would you expect divesting some of the more commodity oriented businesses to move the portfolio up the value chain?

Ellen Kullman

Chairman

Nick would you like to?

Nick Fanandakis

CFO

P.J. let me address that. Thanks for your question. When you look at our M&A strategy, really it remains very consistent. From an acquisition standpoint, when we look at the opportunity for acquiring potential businesses, we stay along the lines of -- an acquisition would be for some thing really of providing significant strategic value, either technology, a value chain, etc., it’s not for just bulking up. On the divestiture side, which is really I think the harder your question, we put a lot of effort, time, and money into restructuring these businesses, and we really believe that right now is the time where we can extract a lot of that value as we move forward. I would really not want to give up on that opportunity and that value that we can create now with those businesses. So I really believe that from this point, from my advantage point, looking at those, we create the greatest shareholder value by continuing to run those businesses and take advantage of the leverage that we have created. P.J. Juvekar – Citi: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Don Carson from UBS; please go ahead. Don Carson – UBS: Yes, thank you. Just a question on some of these assumptions behind your guidance. I mean clearly you’re going to exceed your 10% revenue growth target. I’m just wondering what revenue growth is implicit in in your new guidance, and with raw materials rising, do you have the pricing power to maintain increases in variable margin, or is this earnings growth still going to come primarily through operating leverage?

Ellen Kullman

Chairman

Yes, Nick you want to help Don with that one?

Nick Fanandakis

CFO

Yes Don, let me try and answer that one. Certainly we have had a great first quarter, and we are at a rate that’s far greater than the 10% sales growth that we talk about. When you look at quarter two, we have very good visibility towards quarter two, and we are expecting as we mentioned, continued strength in the second quarter. Beyond that, the third and fourth quarter, it’s not as clear obviously, as to the top-line growth and what we are going to see within the market conditions. We don’t anticipate any major softening. We have some very good bellwether businesses within the corporation, like our TR2 business, and it’s operating very strong. Not only is our business operating strong, but the whole industry is. So we are anticipating a continued strong economy, but the visibility beyond the first half is a bit hazier. So at this point in time, I would stay with our greater than 10% top-line growth in the year. Don Carson – UBS: And just a follow-up on price variable cost, you really have pricing up despite costs being down. I know TiO2 is pretty tight, but what is sort of the general pricing power within your businesses, or is it just doing more to your continued focus on the DuPont pricing model?

Nick Fanandakis

CFO

Well, certainly it’s a combination. I mean, we instituted pricing per value for some time now, and we have that discipline institutionalized through all of our businesses, so we really do take advantage of that and make sure we get the value for the innovation that we bring in to the market place, so there is certainly that component of it. Then there are businesses that are very tight right now. If you look at our TiO2 business, very tightened capacity, our polymers business, our refrigerants, all those have a very high [Inaudible] right now.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from Kevin McCarthy from Bank of America/Merrill Lynch; please go ahead. Kevin McCarthy – Bank of America/Merrill Lynch: Yes, good morning, how are you? Nick I understand the acreage numbers are still to be seen, but with half the crop in the ground and the seed selling season down, would you care to hazard an estimate on your share gains in the US markets for corn and soybeans?

Ellen Kullman

Chairman

I mean that’s still paying out as we speak. I mean, we feel it looks like corn will probably play a little more this year than maybe we had estimated earlier in this year than maybe we had estimated earlier in this year, and soy will come in late, but I think that we are on track with what we had predicted at what our estimates were this year, and I really think that globally we do see that 1% to 2% points of share come in our direction. Kevin McCarthy – Bank of America/Merrill Lynch: Then to follow up on optimum incremax; one just to clarify, would you intent to go to a refuge in the bag delivery system at a 10% refuge level, and if so, when might you be in a position to start sales in a rib mode?

Ellen Kullman

Chairman

When we get the registration from the EPA, which we expect in a week, our expectations or discussions with them indicate that the 90/10 is probable; at least in the way I’m calling it now. So that’s the product we will getting out in the bag, into the market place, and get those demonstration plots in this year. So that’s going to provide us with the opportunity to show the real value to the growers, not only its yield, but its convenience that will be used to greatly support our 2011 commercial launch. Kevin McCarthy – Bank of America/Merrill Lynch: Thank you very much.

Ellen Kullman

Chairman

Thank you Kevin.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from Paul Mann from Morgan Stanley; please go ahead. Paul Mann – Morgan Stanley: Thanks. Yes, its quite clear the recovery is significantly stronger than anticipated in November. You brought forward your affordable revenue targets from 2012 to 2011. So how do these results make you reflect in your 2012 targets you put out in November.

Ellen Kullman

Chairman

Yes, one quarter we were very excited about what we have been able to deliver in the quarter, both from a volume and from a productivity side, but I think we need to see a little more play up this year before we adjust the targets that we put out in November of 2009. We will probably be getting together with you guys in the fourth quarter like we do every year, and at that point I think it would be very appropriate for us to give you our thinking then. Paul Mann – Morgan Stanley: The only division where margins were slightly weaker than what we anticipated were robust performance coatings, we are just going to mark a target of 10% to 12% in 2012, and it's still early days. Were the margins this quarter more a mix effect, in terms of more OEM refinished? Do you feel you're on track for the 10% to 12% margin still?

Ellen Kullman

Chairman

Yes, Nick do you want to…?

Nick Fanandakis

CFO

Paul, thanks for your question, this is Nick. When you look at that business and the slight drop in margin that you saw in the quarter, its really due to mix that you said, the refinished versus the OEM mix, and its also due to some of the raw material increases that they started to experience already in the quarter around monomers and solvents of that nature. So they are starting to see some of that compression occur in the first quarter year. Paul Mann – Morgan Stanley: Okay, thanks.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from Mark Gulley from Soleil Securities; please go ahead. Mark Gulley – Soleil Securities: Yes, good morning. Here are my two questions. First of all, with respect to the competitiveness in the seed business, we have certainly talked about it a fair amount, and yet you saw a 5% increase overall in this segment. So how does that square up with the competiveness. Then second, Nick I have a question on continued pinch in contributions, both this year and perhaps even next year. Thank you.

Ellen Kullman

Chairman

Yes, thanks Mark for the question. On competitiveness in seeds, we have seen the first quarter start. It’s based off of a strong North American opportunity, and weaker Europe opportunity than we had projected early. Europe will come in strong in the second half and we’ll have a strong finish to North America. So I think you will see a second quarter strengthening in seeds as we have discussed earlier, and I think that that’s consistent with what we are seeing playing out in the planting today. So, I think that the overall production agriculture is always a first half story, and its always difficult to call first quarter, second quarter, and I think you will see from our first half standpoint a very strong positioning for us. Nick, you want to take up the pension question?

Nick Fanandakis

CFO

Yes, thanks. On the pension, let me just refresh everyone’s memory. The $400 million that we are taking to earnings this year in the way of pension is not a cash impact item, it’s just an earnings impact item. For cash impact or cash contributions this year to the pension plan, our preliminary estimates when we look at the funding requirements needed by the pension protection act of the 96% level, we believe we will be meeting that level without having to make any cash contributions within the US plan. Outside of the US plan, we still have about $300 million of cash contributions to those plans.

Ellen Kullman

Chairman

John, next question?

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from Robert Koort from Goldman Sachs; please go ahead.

Robert Koort - Goldman Sachs

Management

Thanks very much. I was wondering a little bit; you made some positive comments about safety and protection maybe starting to turn the corner a little bit. What would you expect through the incremental margin rate as you go back up the slope, and how long might it take to get back to that $ 1 billion revenue run rate; quarterly I mean?

Ellen Kullman

Chairman

If we take a look at facing protection they were laid in, they were late coming out, albeit we are still seeing improvement sequentially quarter-by-quarter. In 2012, we put targets in the low 20s for their margin. I see that no reason to come off of those estimates. You know military, which is about 10% of the revenue is lumpy. It comes and it doesn’t come depending on a lot of different factors. So when we integrate that all together, plus construction is going to be stronger this year than last year, but certainly I would not call it anywhere near robust. So we are confident in our products, and in the new products that we have introduced in the last year to continue to aid us in penetration of those markets globally, and I think that as we say, the focus is on getting back to those margins in the 2012 timeframe.

Robert Koort - Goldman Sachs

Management

If I look towards that business, it sort of peaked out a few years ago. It looks like the revenues were up maybe $270 million or $300 million or $175 million higher, but so was the profit level. Given all this stuff you’ve done internally, would you expect the margins if you get back to that same revenue base would be meaningfully higher or no?

Ellen Kullman

Chairman

No, I think that if you take a look at it there, the mid 20 margin levels are what we are focused on for the 2012. The mix is going to be very different as we come through the next two years, and I think that’s a very healthy margin and one that with our advanced products and the new technologies we are bringing forward, that we can focus on. John, we are nearing the end of our time, how about one more question?

Operator

Operator

Your last question is from Jeffrey Zekauskas from JP Morgan; please go ahead. Silke Kueck – JP Morgan : Good morning its Silke Kueck for Jeff, how are you?

Ellen Kullman

Chairman

Good. Silke Kueck – JP Morgan: Do you have any targets to employ those free cash outside of paying dividends?

Ellen Kullman

Chairman

Nick, would you like to comment on our cash?

Nick Fanandakis

CFO

Sure. We have a dividend policy, which is fairly well articulated, and known. We return our excess cash to our shareholders, unless we have a compelling investment opportunity. Our dividend issuance, we have a range in about 25% to 45% of our cash flow from operations. We would like to stay within that range. Ultimately, obviously the dividend policy is a board decision. Outside of dividends, we look at the growth opportunities that we have within the corporation and you look at the opportunities that we spent some of our fixed cost on, our cash and capital dollars on this year, this quarter. It’s reflective of the tremendous growth opportunities we have, so I believe the cash will be put to tremendous use. Silke Kueck – JP Morgan: Okay, and just to follow up, if it were the case that currencies stay where they are today for a longer period of time, would that in anyway impair your 2012 earnings guidance or are the underlying operations strong enough to absorb that?

Ellen Kullman

Chairman

I think that we are anticipating a little bit of a headwind for currency in the second half of the year.

Nick Fanandakis

CFO

From this point on, we are actually anticipating a headwind in the currency. The currency right now, and the euro for example is 133, and our assumptions are in the 134-ish range, so we are seeing some headwind for the rest of this year. It’s difficult to project that out beyond, it’s difficult to project it even for the rest of the year, let alone into 2011.

Ellen Kullman

Chairman

Okay, so that brings us to a wrap. Thank you everybody for joining us this morning and we are anxious to answer your questions that you have in follow up.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today’s DuPont 2010 first quarter investor call. You man now disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.