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Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL)

Q4 2009 Earnings Call· Tue, Jan 26, 2010

$205.79

-0.01%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome and thank you for standing by. (Operator Instructions). Now, I will turn the meeting over to Mr. Tony Takazawa.

Tony Takazawa

Management

Good morning. Welcome to EMC’s call to discuss our financial results for the fourth quarter and year 2009. Today we are joined by Joe Tucci, EMC’s Chairman and CEO and David Goulden, EMC Executive Vice President and CFO. David will provide a few comments about the results that we released this morning. He will highlight some of the activities that was had this quarter and discuss our outlook for 2010. Joe will then spend some time discussing his view of what is happening in the market, EMC’s execution of the strategy and how EMC is positioned. After the prepared remarks, we will then open up the lines to take your questions. I would like to point out that we will be referring to non-GAAP numbers in today’s presentation unless otherwise indicated. The reconciliation of our non-GAAP comments to our GAAP results can be found in the disclosure today in our press release, supplemental schedules, and the slides that accompany our presentation. All these are available for download within the investor relations section of EMC.com. As always we have provided detailed financial tables in our news release and on our corporate website. These include a lot of financial details; so, we do encourage you to take a look at them. And with regard to details of VMware’s results, we refer you to their financial release from last night. The call this morning will contain forward-looking statements and information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ, can be found in EMC’s filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Lastly, I will note that an archive of today’s presentation will be available following the call. With that, it is now my pleasure to introduce David Goulden.

David I. Goulden

Management

Good morning and thank you for joining us today. EMC showed good progress through 2009 and end of the year with very solid growth in Q4 with revenues of $4.1 billion up 17% from Q3 2009. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.33, up 43% and free cash flow of $793 million, up 6%. These quarterly results provide a good example of the resilience in our model with revenues up 2% over Q4 2008 demonstrating good profit leverage with non-GAAP EPS of 6% and solid free cash flow generation of 2%. Within these results, our are EMC infrastructure business had a good quarter with $3.5 billion in revenue, up 15% sequentially and $0.28 of non-GAAP EPS, up 40% from Q3. On a year-over-year basis, non-GAAP EPS was up 12% on flat revenue, a result that clearly shows the success of our cost translation efforts. As previously announced, VMware also had a strong fourth quarter contributing $607 million of revenue and was $0.05 of non-GAAP EPS of EMC and showed very good growth from Q3. Given the tough global economic conditions and an IT spending environment down across the board, EMC performed well as we moved through 2009. Our vision, strategy, and most importantly the hard work and sacrifice of EMC team as enabled our company to come out of the year with business momentum and very well positioned to grow and gain share in 2010 and beyond. It is especially worthy to note that even in this economic climate, the consolidated Q4 revenues, Q4 non-GAAP operating margin, Q4 non-GAAP EPS, and Q4 free cash flow results were all records for EMC. In other words, EMC is coming out of the worst global recession we have seen in our best financial shape ever. We think this is truly impressive. Beyond the financial metrics, we’ve…

Joseph M. Tucci

Management

I’d like to begin by welcoming everyone to today’s call. Thank you for joining us and thank you for your interest in EMC. Looking back to Q4, I was very pleased with our overall results. Certainly, demand for storage was strong, especially in the areas of next generation backup with integrated deduplication technologies with storage systems that support virtualized and cloud environments, where unified storage effectively features fiber channel SAN, IT SAN, and NAS architectures, where storage supports mass consolidation and business continuity, and for storage that is custom built for the SOHO market; in other words, storage opportunities in which EMC leads with innovative products, technology solutions and services. Also, you heard from VMware yesterday, the demand for virtualization was very strong. As our customers continue to make solid progress in recovering from the effects of the great recession, they are demanding faster and better returns on their IT investment while striving to be more environmentally conscious. They are turning to VMware and virtualization technologies in record numbers, and Q4 demand for technologies and solutions that help customers ensure they are implementing and adhering to good governance principles and policies while minimizing risk was strong. This helped drive our RSA security in our information management businesses. In fact, our RSA business produced year-over-year growth in each and every quarter throughout 2009. Additionally, I was very pleased with the very warm market reception our private cloud Vision strategy and product roadmap and partner ecosystem has received. This holds well for our future and gives confidence in our ability to grow and take market share going forward. I would like to take this opportunity to thank the global workforce of EMC and VMware. Our team was selfless accepting and even volunteering for 5% pay reduction to help us minimize layoffs, keeping…

Tony Takazawa

Operator

Before we open up the line for your question, as usual, we ask you to try and limit yourself to one question including clarification. It will enable us to take as many questions as possible in the time that we have. We thank you all for your cooperation in this matter. Teresa, can we open up the line for questions, please?

Operator

Operator

We will now begin the formal question and answer session. (Operator Instructions). Our first question comes from the line of Jason Ader - William Blair.

Jason Ader - William Blair

Analyst

Two related questions; for Q1, what would normal seasonality be; I know we lost a couple of years, have not exactly been normal; and then secondly, could you give us some color on the backlog as you enter Q1?

David I. Goulden

Management

I will answer both in the same way. We don’t comment on backlog, but I did point out to you that we expect the progression, the expense contribution to revenues from each quarter as a percentage of the total to follow a reasonably normal seasonal pattern. You can go back and look at your own data. We’re trying to avoid guiding all on the quarterly basis; we’re giving annual guidance, and we can’t tell you; the progression during the year will be seasonally normal as a percentage of revenue; so I encourage you to just go back and not have me guide you towards Q1.

Jason Ader - William Blair

Analyst

And what year should we look at to see the most, to get a sense of what the normal contribution would be?

David I. Goulden

Management

I wouldn’t look at 2009. the whole comment that we made about 2009 and if you look at the contribution in 2009, the first half versus second half, we saw a much higher percentage of revenue than normal in the second half of 2009 as we expected that to be the case because we saw a much weaker demand in the first half; so I would go back and look at the three or four years leading up to 2009.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mark Kelleher - Brigantine Advisors.

Mark Kelleher - Brigantine Advisors

Analyst · Mark Kelleher - Brigantine Advisors

Some very good gross margin numbers there; maybe the highest in the couple of years; can you give us some puts and takes on that and whether you think that is sustainable?

David I. Goulden

Management

We are very pleased with gross margin performance this quarter. A couple of things really; perhaps the best way to look at gross margins is probably look sequentially; so we saw a nice uptick from Q3. You have seen our margins improving during the year, that really being the results of some of the cost translation problem we would be doing and driving efficiencies through our supply chain, but also some good work in the field to make sure that while this is a very tough pricing environment, we are charging suitably for value. But if you look sequentially, what we saw was a nice improvement in both product margins and services margins, and in both cases, principally volume driven as we see additional leverage in the models volume starts to pick up again. So, that’s the biggest driver. A little bit of FX impact sequentially, but mainly both products and services margins pick up sequentially because of volume.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of William Shope - Credit Suisse.

William Shope - Credit Suisse

Analyst · William Shope - Credit Suisse

Can you discuss your R&D plans for 2010 in a bit more detail, more specifically help us to understand where it is targeted; is this somewhat from a snapback from a compressed 2009 plan; and then touching on a more sensitive topic, can you address this target in light of the nagging historical concerns that you will reinvest upside and leverage back into the business?

David I. Goulden

Management

As we have been talking throughout this tough cycle, we’ve really worked hard through our cost transformation to get ourselves in a situation where our cost structure is simply more lean and efficient; you saw the benefits of that happening in Q4 where on the EMCII we saw operating margins close to 22% which is much higher than we have seen for any recent period of time. So we really believe we have put that cost structure in place so we can generate much more leverage on incremental revenues, but also as we said earlier we can produce that leverage while continuing to top our investments. So, if you think about revenue growth next year of 14%, R&D growth is a 20-point growth, then obviously we’re showing a much higher investment back into R&D, and just before I hand over to Joe and talk about what we’re going to be investing in; this year you made a comment that R&D looks a little less robust. I think when you’re looking at the change on year-on-year growth or decline in R&D dollars versus SG&A dollars, that in turn is being impacted by a number of things including software capitalization, transition expense, and acquisitions, and if you pull those three out, the year-on-year decline in those lines are actually much closer than they look on the financial statement. So, just a few comments upon leverage and R&D mix, and I will hand it back to Joe to talk about the investment areas.

Joseph M. Tucci

Management

Obviously, the two big investments are around storage and VMware on the virtualization building the next generation of data center OS. Within storage, what is hot is where the majority of the increase will go. So, a lot is going around the federation and virtualization, which David said, we have a number of big announcements there and initiatives coming out obviously around the next generation backup and recovery, obviously in unified storage, obviously in building in security to both our virtualized and physical products. So, those are areas off the top of my head that are getting some big increases or nice increases.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Benjamin Reitzes - Barclays Capital.

Benjamin Reitzes - Barclays Capital

Analyst · Benjamin Reitzes - Barclays Capital

Could you address whether there were any shortages in the quarter and whether they have been alleviated and I’ll sneak another one in there; of your 14% growth this year, could you talk about the Data Domain and Avamar segment, what is the growth expected of the Data Domain Avamar segment within the 14%?

Joseph M. Tucci

Management

We’re not going to break out that segment but we will as we go through give you a lot of color around that, but let me put it this way; throughout the entire company the segment we expect to grow the fastest will be that BRS group that we talked about, the Data Domain and the Avamar technology by far. So we continue to believe that.

David I. Goulden

Management

On the shortages, obviously you can see that we diluted $4.1 billion of revenue against our guidance of $4 billion; so we obviously had the supplies to feed our guidance during the quarter, but just to comment a little bit deeper, you will notice, I am sure as you start to pull through the financials that we did have a buildup in inventory of Q4; we built up about $100 million of inventory and that was designed to protect ourselves going into Q1 against what we knew would be a tight supply environment. So, we think, and we’re well positioned going into Q1, we did invest a little bit ahead of our Q4 needs, we have good relationships with all of our suppliers, and so we’re very confident and we do not see anything that will disrupt our Q1 numbers either, but we have invested a little bit to make sure we have that protection.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Daniel Ives - FBR Capital Markets.

Daniel Ives - FBR Capital Markets

Analyst · Daniel Ives - FBR Capital Markets

Could you just, anecdotally; you guys are talking to customers, quarter to quarter; what really changed this quarter, and maybe could you compare it with a typical Q4, what you see when you’re visiting customers around the world in terms of spending?

David I. Goulden

Management

Obviously, there was a lot more optimism in our customers, a lot more clarity, a lot more normality in the CIO’s ability to spend their budget without all kinds of checks and approvals they had to get in prior quarters, especially when it went up to and including board levels; so that was for sure. Obviously, we saw what I would consider to be a very normal budget rush, and I think we also saw even maybe a little extra in some of that spending the customers didn’t do in Q1 and Q2 as the companies got more confident in their next year 2010 business plans, they were doing a little bit of catch-up because I think they really starved their infrastructures in Q1 and Q2.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Marshall - Broadpoint AmTech.

Brian Marshall - Broadpoint AmTech

Analyst · Brian Marshall - Broadpoint AmTech

I was wondering if you could comment on what’s baked into your EPS guidance for calendar year 2010 non-GAAP with regards to minority interests; it looks like based on my calculations, that might be doubling year-over-year to roughly $120 million, and then also, the 20% R&D growth; can you talk about if any M&A in organic growth is baked in as well?

David I. Goulden

Management

We’ll take those in reverse order, Brian; no that is an organic growth in R&D spend; and in terms of minority interests, I think you’re talking about the minority interests in VMware, obviously you can run the math based upon the guidance of VMware I gave you last night about the revenue and their operating margins. As the programs roll out, we do expect the minority investments to increase slightly during the course of the year because it is more profitable or more contribution coming from VMware and the actual dollars will be greater than they were in 2009. So, you’re probably directionally generally okay.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ittai Kidron - Oppenheimer & Co. Ittai Kidron - Oppenheimer & Co.: Congratulations on the great numbers. Maybe if you could talk a little bit about your operating margins; great performance there and great targets for the year. I guess going forward, have we reached peak levels of your operating margins, where are the opportunities to keep on growing that level?

David I. Goulden

Management

Thank you for the comments on the quarter and the question. We are really here to talk about 2010, I think we’ve given you a very compelling roadmap for 2010 that is going to give us, this combination is triple flavor; I spoke about market share growth, investment for the future, and significant operating margin leverage. Going forward, we’re obviously looking at all three of those metrics, but we’re here today to talk about 2010 and we’ll leave our comments there at this point in time.

Joseph M. Tucci

Management

I think the longer-term to that Ittai is how well we execute on those four mega billion-dollar plus growth opportunities for us, and we intend to execute well. We’ll keep you posted as we go through.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Freed - Morgan, Keegan & Co. Brian Freed - Morgan, Keegan & Co.: When you look at the mix between your V-Max and DMX products in the fourth quarter, can you talk about that for direction there, and secondly, can you talk about merging related to V-Max versus DMX clearly higher given the component; do you think they would continue to leverage on the product gross margins on as that continues to gain share?

David I. Goulden

Management

Brian, on the V-Max versus DMX question; that transition continues to be ahead of plan and it continues to be going faster than other major transitions. So, we’re up close to three-quarter of the total mix this quarter coming from V-Max versus DMX, and yes, because of the design of the V-Max, it does inherently, particularly now we’ve gotten up to higher volumes of product levels, it would cost us less on a per box or per capacity basis, and therefore, margins are better; and that’s one of the reasons why you saw a margin uptick as well in Q3 to Q4, the mix shifting from a little over 50% of total to close to 75% helped us a little bit as we moved through the progression between the two quarters.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Maynard Um - UBS.

Maynard Um - UBS

Analyst · Maynard Um - UBS

Related to the seasonality, I am just curious if you’re expecting that across all your geographies or if there are more specific geographies that will outperform others; and sorry if I missed this, but can you just give us the information; storage gross margins in the quarter?

Joseph M. Tucci

Management

Seasonality by geographies, it does absolutely vary. For instance, not a geography, but our federal business for instance has a little bit different drumbeat than the directional seasonality, but as David said, we don’t break up that up and we’re not going to be guiding that way, but on the macro level, if you look with this regard in 2009 and look at the previous four years or so, I think you can come to proper conclusions.

David I. Goulden

Management

All information on storage gross margins, we’re not giving those out today, but I can tell you that from both a parts and service basis, within information storage margins, we saw an increase both on a quarter on quarter and a year on year basis to margins within information; we’ll give you more information as we complete our filing for the quarter.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Toni Sacconaghi - Sanford Bernstein.

Toni Sacconaghi - Sanford Bernstein

Analyst · Toni Sacconaghi - Sanford Bernstein

I wanted to just follow up on the very strong gross margin performance and try and better understand beyond volume what else may have helped in the quarter more permanently. When you think about $450 million or $500 million in cost savings that you generated year over year in 2009, how much of that is impacting the COGs line; should we be thinking about the six COGs portion being structurally reduced by a certain amount, and how do we think about that, and can you also comment on changes in depreciation, warranty expense, and other allowances, and whether those had an impact on gross margins in 2009 and expected for 2010?

Joseph M. Tucci

Management

I think more than anything else the bet that this company has placed from top to bottom, this is consolidated EMC statement, on the x86 architecture has really served us well; (a) build up a lot of expertise, (b) build up a lot of commonality which helps both volume side and helps on the cost side as we get more commonality of physical parts. Obviously, we’re also seeing what V-Max helped on the performance side as Intel and others have done a phenomenal job moving the power curve and performance curve, and with better environmentals. That has proved to be a great bet for us and one that will continue to get benefit from.

David I. Goulden

Management

Just on the other areas that you mentioned; in terms of our cross transformation program, we have basically about a third of those reductions impacting COGs and two-third in OpEx, and the areas that we’re impacting on the COGs side are along some of the areas that you spoke about, kind of reducing some of our structural fixed costs in the parts and services side of the business. I think the important thing to recognize is that quarter on quarter we had really nice progression in both parts and service margins; yes, volume is the biggest single factor, but we did get some benefit from ongoing cost transformation, but as you know, if you’re adding volume onto a fixed cost structure with variable margins, or the attractiveness what we saw during the quarter.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of William Fearnley - FTN Equity Capital Markets.

William Fearnley - FTN Equity Capital Markets

Analyst · William Fearnley - FTN Equity Capital Markets

A question for Joe here; when you look at pipelines, can you provide more color on pipeline by segment, geography, or product, and any additional color on the direct pipeline and what you’re seeing with the channel partners; where are the bright spots here when you look across the world for 2010?

Joseph M. Tucci

Management

Certainly, David commented some of our emerging markets we called Brick Plus 13 here and we’re increasing that 13 number which is Brick countries plus 13 others we really put a strong focus and that 13 number will go up; that has performed very well. We continue to believe that will perform very well. I think there are a lot of opportunities on the back of our partnerships with Cisco and VCE, and revitalizing our DELL partnership; I think those two are massive opportunities for us if we do them right, and I believe we can do them both right. Of course, as we really get into this next generation of how we take the cloud computing and really bring it, internal or private cloud market is going to be a big, big, big opportunity for us and how we really execute on that is phenomenal. And then the reception of the combination of the Data Domain and Avamar products is nothing short of exceptional. So, I would say those are the things, the markets, and the opportunities for us that comes off the top of my mind.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Kaushik Roy - Wedbush Morgan Securities Inc.

Kaushik Roy - Wedbush Morgan Securities Inc.

Analyst · Kaushik Roy - Wedbush Morgan Securities Inc

Can you give us a little bit more color on the 20% operating margin for 2010; R&D is going up by 20%, where is the leverage coming from; can you quantify in any way your expectations for the SG&A or what are your gross margin assumptions for 2010?

David I. Goulden

Management

Kaushik, I think we’ve given you a lot of pieces of the puzzle; we’re not going to give you the entire puzzle. Our real focus here is commitment for 2010 for the full year to deliver 20% operating margins. What you will see is that you will see our operating margins improving sequentially during the year with 20% being the average. I told you that R&D is going to go faster than revenues; so we’re going to see, by definition, a negative leverage there. So, on a year-over-year basis to deliver the increase, you’re going to need to see improvements as a percentage of revenue in both SG&A and gross margins. I am not going to give you the mix between those two pieces, but I think I have given you most of the puzzle.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mark Moskowitz - J.P. Morgan.

Mark Moskowitz - J.P. Morgan

Analyst · Mark Moskowitz - J.P. Morgan

First, a clarification if I could on Dan’s question earlier; could you talk a little more about the inventory protection, is that more on the hard disk drive side, any comment there; and then Joe, can you talk a little more about the smarter pricing environment that was exhibited throughout most of 2009 with the downturn; heard a lot of folks and seemed like discounting was not as pervasive within the system environment; do you expect the discounting to change and get more competitive as we go through 2010 or are folks going to be structurally a little smarter?

Joseph M. Tucci

Management

Being in the middle of the food fight here, so to speak, 2010 was a very competitive market with the storage industry in total being down. Obviously, because of our cost transformation projects, because of our move to x86 and more commonality in parts and service, etc., we were able to offset that. I think going into 2010, I think you’ll see more the same. I think it obviously will be a very competitive market, and we got to continue to make sure that we’re incredibly cost competitive and make sure that we get the best out of our cost transformation, and at the same time, just they can’t beat innovative products; so that’s why the increase in our R&D and that is what is going to make more of a difference than anything else.

Joseph M. Tucci

Management

Tony Takazawa

Operator

We have enough time for one more question and then Joe will have a few closing comments.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from David Bailey - Goldman Sachs.

David Bailey - Goldman Sachs

Analyst

You announced resumption of your share buyback, can you talk a little bit about how you prioritize buyback versus acquisitions and internal spending to drive growth?

David I. Goulden

Management

Clearly, those are the three priorities for any use of cash, and as you know, we’re in the fortunate position this year to have strong cash balances and feel sufficiently comfortable about the environment to commit to a buyback; so, the most important thing we can do with our cash is to put to work with the company and things like what we did last year with the acquisition of data domain was a great result for the company, will be very accretive on the long-term basis, but if we have excess capital beyond what we think we need for investments that’s what we put into buybacks; so, essentially, first two are investments and third is buybacks, and we’ve committed to spend a billion dollars.

Joseph M. Tucci

Management

Thanks everybody for joining us. Hopefully we leave here believing that we have a great vision, a solid strategy and we’ve had pretty good execution; we’re focusing on, as David called, the triple play. We are focused on taking share and growing faster than the market, we are very focused in investing in the future, and we are very focused on creating leverage, and if we do that, it will be a good day for everyone here at EMC and a good day for our shareholders. So, thank you very much for your interest in being with us today and we’ll be talking to you soon.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for your participation.