Earnings Labs

Diageo plc (DEO)

Q2 2024 Earnings Call· Tue, Jan 30, 2024

$78.97

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Transcript

Debra Crew

Management

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining our results presentation for the first half of fiscal '24. As we shared in November, we expected that the first half of fiscal '24 was going to see slower growth than the second half of fiscal '23, due to materially weaker performance in LAC, our Latin American Region, which is nearly 10% of Diageo's net sales value. We ended the half in line with our November trading update. But let me be clear, we are not satisfied with these results. Today, I will share my reflections on our performance for the half, including an update on LAC. Lavanya will then discuss our results in more detail before I return to discuss our near-term outlook. The group's organic net sales declined 0.6% in the first half of fiscal '24, and organic operating margin declined by 167 basis points. Excluding LAC, organic net sales grew 2.5%, driven by good growth in Europe, Asia Pacific and Africa. And while North America declined versus the prior year, we did deliver sequential improvement period-on-period, as our actions in the region began to show an early impact. Organic operating margin declined 53 basis points, excluding LAC, driven entirely by increased marketing investment. We generated strong free cash flow of $1.5 billion, up $0.5 billion while continuing to invest in the future growth potential of our brands. This was driven by strong working capital improvement and Lavanya will discuss this further. Once again, we increased our dividend, up 5%, maintaining our track record of increases, since Diageo's formation over 25 years ago. Usually, our performance discussion begins with the 2 around the world, starting with NAM because it is our largest region. But as I promised in November, I first want to give you an update on the inventory issue…

Lavanya Chandrashekar

Management

Thank you, Debra, and good morning, everyone. As Debra mentioned, we are disappointed with our fiscal '24 first half results. Organic net sales were down 0.6%, with positive price mix performance, mostly mitigating a decline in volume. Excluding LAC, the business grew organic net sales by 2.5% despite the slightly negative impact from North America, where we did see sequential improvement to the second half of fiscal '23. Organic operating margin declined by 167 basis points primarily driven by LAC. Excluding LAC, organic operating margin was down 53 basis points driven entirely by increased investment in A&P. We generated free cash flow of $1.5 million. Strong working capital management and lower tax payments more than offset the combined impact of the decline in operating profit, higher interest payments and increased investment in CapEx. Pre-exceptional earnings per share declined mainly due to lower operating profit and higher finance charges. We increased our interim dividend by 5%, reflecting our continued confidence in the business and commitment to a progressive dividend policy. We believe our profitable growth algorithm continues to support sustainable long-term growth. Our focus continues to be on driving growth through winning quality market share. We continue to premiumize our portfolio, benefit from increased prices and drive productivity, all of which enables us to continue to invest smartly back into the business. Price/mix contributed 4.6 percentage points to top line growth, reflecting price increases in all regions except for LAC. Price contribution to organic net sales growth was in the low- to mid-single digits. Organic volume was down 5.2% with the biggest driver by far being the decline of spirits volume in LAC. I will cover this in further detail shortly. We unlocked a further $335 million of productivity cost savings across cost of goods, marketing and overheads during the half…

Debra Crew

Management

Thank you, Lavanya. In this uneven global economic environment for the second half, we expect our organic net sales growth rate to gradually improve compared to the growth rate for the group in the first half. And we expect an organic operating profit decline in the second half compared to the prior year, but we expect the rate of decline to improve compared to the first half of fiscal '24. While we expect headwinds to persist from continued inflation and relatively low operating leverage as we reduce inventory and LAC, we will continue to focus on delivering strong productivity and benefit from revenue growth management. We will continue to invest in marketing and brand building for the future. As we move into fiscal '25, and the consumer environment improves, we expect to progress towards the delivery of our medium-term guidance, with our organic net sales growth trajectory improving compared to fiscal '24. And we expect organic operating profit growth in fiscal '25 to be broadly in line with organic net sales growth. The first half of fiscal '24 was no doubt challenging for Diageo and our sector. But I am pleased with how we are responding as a team, and I would like to thank all my Diageo colleagues for their hard work, dedication and resilience, especially in the last 6 months. I am 8 months into my tenure as CEO of this wonderful business. And despite the uneven global pattern of economic recovery, we can and, I believe, will do much better. We are focused on accelerating the business, winning share raising the bar on operational execution and building the foundations for our next successful decade of growth. My confidence in our ability to drive sustainable growth and returns for shareholders over the long term is as unchanged as when I originally joined the Board of Diageo nearly five years ago, back in 2019. Yes, we face an uneven global consumer environment. But this is a resilient company, staffed by resilient and talented people, who do business the right way. Remember, Diageo has a track record of navigating volatility. We've done it before, and we will do it again. We are diversified by category, price point and region, and we'll continue to invest behind our iconic brands and actively manage the portfolio to maintain our position as an industry leader in total beverage alcohol, an attractive sector with a long runway for growth. My focus is to generate long-term sustainable value for shareholders by driving performance of our brands, especially in scotch, tequila and Guinness, meeting global consumers evolving taste and stepping up our operational excellence to win quality market share. The job to be done is clear, and we have both the long-term strategy and have put in shorter-term interventions to do it. Thank you for watching, and I look forward to meeting many of our shareholders in the weeks ahead.

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Management