Earnings Labs

Dollar General Corporation (DG)

Q4 2021 Earnings Call· Thu, Mar 17, 2022

$115.90

-1.24%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.
Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Robert, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to Dollar General's Fourth Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. Today is Thursday, March 17, 2022. [Operator Instructions] This call is being recorded, and instructions for listening to the replay of the call are available in the company's earnings press release issued this morning. Now I'd like to turn the conference over to Mr. Donny Lau, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Strategy. Mr. Lau, you may begin.

Donny Lau

Analyst

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. On the call with me today are Todd Vasos, our CEO; Jeff Owen, our COO; and John Garratt, our CFO. Our earnings release issued today can be found on our website at investor.dollargeneral.com under News & Events. Let me caution you that today's comments include forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, such as statements about our financial guidance, strategy, initiatives, plans, goals, priorities, opportunities, investments, expectations or beliefs about future matters and other statements that are not limited to historical fact. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations and projections. These factors include, but are not limited to, those identified in our earnings release issued this morning, under risk factors in our 2020 Form 10-K filed on March 19, 2021, and any later filed periodic report, and the comments that are made on this call. You should not unduly rely on forward-looking statements, which speak only as today -- as of today's date. Dollar General disclaims any obligation to update or revise any information discussed in this call unless required by law. We also will reference certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures are included in this morning's earnings release, which, as I mentioned, is posted on investor.dollargeneral.com under News & Events. At the end of our prepared remarks, we will open the call up for your questions. [Operator Instructions] Now it is my pleasure to turn the call over to Todd.

Todd Vasos

Analyst

Thank you, Donny, and welcome to everyone joining our call. We are pleased with our fourth quarter and fiscal year results, and I want to thank our associates for their unwavering commitment to meeting the critical needs of our communities, particularly over the past 2 years of the COVID pandemic. Our fourth quarter performance was impacted by sustained and rising inflation, ongoing global supply chain pressure and a surge in Omicron cases, which impacted staffing levels at our distribution centers, contributing to elevated out-of-stocks. Despite these challenging conditions, our teams continued to focus on controlling what we can control and being there for our customers. Because of their efforts and great execution over the past 2 years, we believe our underlying business is even stronger than before the pandemic, which positions us well to deliver solid sales and profit growth in 2022 and beyond. And while we expect this challenging environment to persist over the near term, which is reflected in our Q1 and fiscal 2022 outlook, we're confident we are taking the appropriate actions to manage through this period and deliver on our full year plan. In fact, I'm pleased to report our staffing levels are back to 2019 pre-COVID levels in both our stores and distribution centers, and we are seeing a meaningful improvement in our in-stock positions. Additionally, although we experienced higher-than-expected product and supply chain cost in Q4, we are very confident in our price position as our price indexes, relative to competitors and other classes of trade, remain in line with our targeted and historical ranges. And because so many families depend on us for everyday essentials at the right price, we believe products at the $1 price point are important to our customers, and they will continue to have a significant presence in our…

John Garratt

Analyst

Thank you, Todd, and good morning, everyone. Now that Todd has taken you through a few highlights of the quarter and the full year, let me take you through some of its important financial details. Unless we specifically note otherwise, all comparisons are year-over-year, all references to EPS refer to diluted earnings per share and all years noted refer to the corresponding fiscal year. As Todd already discussed sales, I will start with gross profit. As a reminder, gross profit in Q4 2020 and fiscal year 2020 were both positively impacted by a significant increase in sales, including net sales growth of 24% and 28%, respectively, in our combined nonconsumables categories. For Q4 2021, gross profit as a percentage of sales was 31.2%, a decrease of 131 basis points. The decrease compared to Q4 2020 was primarily attributable to a higher LIFO provision, increased transportation and distribution costs and a greater proportion of sales coming from our consumables category. Of note, while we expect some relief as we move through 2022, our Q4 supply chain expenses were significantly higher compared to Q4 2020, resulting in a headwind to gross margin of approximately $100 million. These factors were partially offset by a reduction in markdowns as a percentage of sales in higher inventory markups. SG&A as a percentage of sales was 22% in the quarter, a decrease of 16 basis points. This decrease was primarily driven by lower incremental costs related to COVID-19, lower hurricane-related expenses and a reduction in incentive compensation. These items were partially offset by certain expenses that were higher as a percentage of sales, including retail labor, occupancy costs and depreciation and amortization. Moving down the income statement. Operating profit for the fourth quarter decreased 8.7% to $797 million. As a percentage of sales, operating profit was…

Jeffery Owen

Analyst

Thank you, John. Let me take the next few minutes to update you on our operating priorities and strategic initiatives, including our plans for 2022. Our first operating priority is driving profitable sales growth. We have a growing portfolio of initiatives which are contributing to our strong results as well as strengthening the foundation for future growth. Let me take you through some of the recent highlights as well as some of our next steps. Starting with our nonconsumables initiative, or NCI, which was available in more than 11,700 stores at the end of 2021. We continued to be very pleased with the strong sales and margin performance we are seeing across the NCI store base. Notably, NCI stores outperformed non-NCI stores in both average ticket and customer traffic, driving an incremental 2.5% total comp sales increase on average in NCI stores, along with a meaningful improvement in gross margin rate. We expect to realize ongoing sales and margin benefits from NCI in 2022, and we are on track to complete the rollout across nearly the entire chain by the end of the year. Moving to our newest store concept, pOpshelf, which further builds on our success and learnings with NCI. As a reminder, pOpshelf aims to engage customers by offering a fun, affordable and differentiated treasure hunt experience delivered through continually refreshed merchandise, a differentiated in-store experience and exceptional value, with the vast majority of our items priced at $5 or less. During the quarter, we opened 25 new pOpshelf locations, bringing the total number of stores to 55 and exceeding our initial goal of 50 stores. Additionally, we opened 11 new store within a store concepts during Q4, bringing the total number of Dollar General Market stores with a smaller-footprint pOpshelf store included to a total of 25…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Matthew Boss with JPMorgan.

Matthew Boss

Analyst

Great. So maybe to kick off, Todd, with a number of moving pieces between employment and inflation, could you speak to health of your low-income consumer? How do you view the opportunity to potentially take share in this environment? And just drivers of top line improvement that you see as the year progresses within your 2.5% comp guide.

Todd Vasos

Analyst

Sure, Matt. Thank you for the question. Yes, I'll first start by saying, we've always said here that the health of the consumer, this low-end consumer that we serve the most here at Dollar General, is usually geared and attached to whether they're gainfully employed or not. I'm happy to say that, with the labor market the way it is, that she is gainfully employed, working as many hours as she would like to right now. Matter of fact, we believe that approximately $1.20 increase year-over-year in her wages are in her wallet. So that is a significant amount. Now to your point, there are some other things, other headwinds here that we watch out for. Obviously, inflation has definitely taken a toll on some of that additional wage growth that she's seen. And then recently, over the last couple of weeks, gas prices are up $0.70 a gallon. So that -- we watch that very carefully. Now we always also said that once that gas price reaches over $4 a gallon, which it has now, that we normally see the consumers stay closer to home, which bodes very well for that value and convenient message that we have out there for our core consumer and that we deliver every day. That value and convenient message reigns supreme at the end of the day across the company here at Dollar General and with our core customer. So again, as you think about it, tougher times for the consumer normally means that she needs us more, and we normally start to see a trade-down once that occurs and we'll be watching out for that. Again, that value and convenience really attracts that trade-in, trade-down customer. As far as the drivers of what we believe. Well, our initiatives, Matt, as you know, have been very, very successful over the last 6 to 7 years here at Dollar General. And they're the cornerstone of why we feel confident in our guide for 2022. Obviously a lot of year ahead of us, but those initiatives are truly the cornerstone of that. But then when you think again about that value and convenience message we have, if the market gets a little tighter from a labor perspective or inflation continues to pull more money out of the consumer's wallet, we feel that we're very well positioned as we move through '22 as well.

Matthew Boss

Analyst

Great. And then maybe, John, as a follow-up on gross margin, just to dig a bit deeper. I guess what level of runway remains with DG Fresh in terms of the gross margin opportunity from here? Are you seeing anything in pricing and the promotional landscape as we think about your assumption for markdowns to return to historical levels? And then just last, the net of distribution and transportation efficiencies relative to fuel costs, is that a net headwind, tailwind, neutral? Just kind of trying to size those 3 up in terms of a net for the year.

John Garratt

Analyst

Sure. Sure. So a lot of pieces there. I'll try and attack all those as I kind of walk through the puts and takes of gross margins. I'll start by saying we're really pleased with what we've done with gross margin in recent years. As you look at 2021, it's up about 100 basis over 2019 levels. Now we didn't give specific margin -- gross margin guidance for 2022, but we did mention that Q1 in particular would be pressured as we're lapping a pretty significant expansion last year of 208 basis points that certainly benefited from favorable mix fueled by stimulus. In addition to that tough lap, we have cost inflation continuing in Q1, which is driven by supply chain, fuel and product costs, and to a lesser extent, a return to recent historical rates of markdowns and shrink. Still lower than the pandemic levels, but normalizing a little bit. So certainly, there's some near-term pressures persisting in Q1 in the first part of the year. But bear in mind, as we move through the year, the lap gets easier in the second half as we're lapping the heavy inflation from this year. And just as a frame of reference, in Q4, we had about 200 basis points of added pressure to gross margin from the combination of supply chain, which was about $100 million incremental year-over-year impact; and the LIFO provision, which was $72 million. We don't see this as structural. We anticipate some moderation in cost pressures. We're already seeing this in transportation, supply chain, for instance. Plus, when you look at the benefits of the initiatives and the cost-reduction actions we have in place, we see a growing benefit from that. For instance, if you look at private fleet, we mentioned we're going to double that…

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Karen Short with Barclays.

Karen Short

Analyst · Barclays.

So I wanted to just talk a little bit about the longer-term algorithm and relationship between sales growth and EBIT. So when I look at 2022, excluding the extra week, it looks like 8% -- well, it is 8% for the top line, and about 6% EBIT growth. I just want to get a sense, is that the right relationship or algorithm to think about going forward? So like slight EBIT margin expansion off of the 9.3% that I think guiding you're to, excluding the extra week. And then I had a bigger-picture question.

John Garratt

Analyst · Barclays.

Sure. I would say, as you think about the 10% plus model, every element of that is very well intact. Starting at the top, we've never had a bigger pipeline of new unit growth with the -- for everybody in discount retail, about 17,000 potential opportunities there, not to mention Mexico. We're still seeing the same rate unit level economics on the top line, the bottom line and the returns. A ton of initiatives in place to drive sales, as well as we're seeing an outsized bigger impact from real estate. Not only we're seeing a 15% increase in sales per square foot productivity in the bigger box stores, but as we've mentioned, we're accelerating the number of new stores we're putting out there, and again, seeing really good impact on comp sales from the initiatives. And as you look at margin overall, operating margin overall, a lot of levers, as I just mentioned on Matt's question, with gross margin, SG&A. We stay laser-focused on that. We mentioned in the prepared comments, our Save to Serve program is alive and well. And since 2015, we've saved over $800 million from that. And so as you look at all the pieces, each year might be a little bit different. But I think that's the way to think about that, is the unit growth we've talked about, we feel very good about and are accelerating that a bit. We're seeing -- we've talked before about the impact of real estate, 150 to 200 basis points. And we're seeing the benefit at the high end of that. And then you have the initiatives on top of that and all the levers. So feel very good about our ability to drive 10% growth over the long term. And I think directionally, you're thinking about it right in terms of ongoing top line strength in that 2% to 4% comp range; and the ability over time, we believe, to hold, and in cases, expand our EBIT margins.

Karen Short

Analyst · Barclays.

Okay. That's helpful. And then just in general, I think there's definitely been a concern that you're lapping in 2022 tough discretionary comparisons, obviously. You talked about that. But wondering if you could give a little bit of color on how you think about that discretionary specifically and baked -- in terms of expectations baked into your guidance. And then it sounds like you're certainly not leaning away from discretionary in calendar '22. So maybe just some color on that given that, that is probably a category that will be pressured in the year, this year.

John Garratt

Analyst · Barclays.

Sure. As you think about the non-consumable sales and discretionary sales, what we have contemplated in our guidance is some moderation of that. We still continue to feel great about that side of the business, the growing benefit of the non-consumable initiative as well as the scaling of pOpshelf. But what we have contemplated, given the backdrop from a macro perspective, is somewhat of a moderation of mix back toward consumables, but not going back to where they were. So holding on to a lot of the strength in that business and the mix benefit from that, but some moderation.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Simeon Gutman with Morgan Stanley.

Simeon Gutman

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

I'm wondering if you've given any thought to the 20% of the mix being $1. Has there been any debate around that mix moving? And then, Todd, you mentioned that at the customer, this could be a good environment for you. I take it as you haven't seen any sign yet that there's been any sensitivity to the current inflation.

Todd Vasos

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

We didn't hear your first part of the question, Simeon.

Simeon Gutman

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

The 20% of the merchandise mix. How do you think about that? Is there debate about changing that?

Todd Vasos

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

The $1 mix. Yes. But I would tell you that every time we talk to our core customer, she tells us the same thing, how important that $1 is so that she can round out her month. We've always said here, it's an unfortunate situation, but our customer runs out of money before that month runs out. And that $1 bridges that last few days for her, always has, and that continues to do so. So what we've done is, in light of that information, also with some of the inflationary pressures that we're seeing on other goods, we've actually leaned into our $1 price point. And what you'll see, if you come into our stores over the near term, will be even more displays of $1 items on end caps and off-shelf displays and really pushing that side of the business because I think our customers will need us even more there. And we believe that over time, we could grow that where appropriate and not even stay at that 20% level. So we feel really good about that $1 price point. And the great thing is our vendor community across the board has leaned into that $1 price point with us as well.

Michael Kessler

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

Right. This is Michael Kessler -- oh. Simeon, you got this?

Simeon Gutman

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

Yes. I just wondered if any signs of trade-down yet? Or there hasn't been any sign?

Todd Vasos

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

Yes. Right now, we haven't seen a lot of trade-down yet. The great thing, though, Simeon, is we actually have a lot of that trade-down already embedded in, and I think there'll be more as inflation comes in. And the reason I say it's embedded in is that we are extremely, extremely confident and glad to see that the gains that we got during COVID, so call it the 2020 gains, we've kept a lot more of those customers than we even thought we would have kept. And that continues. Actually, we saw a slight acceleration of that as we moved through Q4. So it was great to see. And we know that, based on the credit card data and our marketing against that, a lot of these customers are in that trade-down area that would happen when trade down occurs. So we've got some of it already, and I believe we'll get even more as inflation continues to take hold across the U.S.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Rupesh Parikh with Oppenheimer.

Rupesh Parikh

Analyst · Oppenheimer.

I was hoping to just touch on, I guess, on the comp line. I want to better understand the building blocks for comp growth this year, whether you can touch on inflation, traffic, the new store contribution. And the guidance implies an acceleration on the comp line as the year progresses. So I just wanted to better understand, what gives you confidence to drive that acceleration? So just any color there in terms of the stronger trends in the back half of the year.

John Garratt

Analyst · Oppenheimer.

Yes. I think you're thinking about it the right way. As we see our comp growth accelerating, as we move sequentially from quarter-to-quarter throughout the year, and we feel great about -- we've said before, this model works very well at 2% to 4% comp. And we feel very good about the 2.5% comp guide, which would imply a pretty healthy 3-year stack with that. As you look at the building blocks of that, what we're seeing right now is we're retaining -- we're exceeding our expectations in terms of what we've done in terms of retaining the new customers, holding on to those bigger basket sizes. We're seeing a bigger impact from real estate, at the high end of that 150 to 200 basis points we've talked about. And as we mentioned, seeing a growing impact from our initiatives as they scale. And the other thing to point out is we're improving our in-stocks. As we improve our in-stocks, that's driving sales as well. Todd mentioned that we're closely watching the consumer. But history tells us that we do very well in all cycles of the economy. And if the consumer is pressured as they are increasingly with inflation, what we've seen is that customer more productive. With high fuel prices, we've seen them shop, as we mentioned, closer to home. And we've seen trade in, all of which benefit us. So when you put all these pieces together, we feel great about the fundamentals of the business. And we think we're very well positioned, for this backdrop, to deliver that comp we've guided to. And we're going to go after more.

Rupesh Parikh

Analyst · Oppenheimer.

Great. And then maybe just one follow-up question on the CapEx side. So this year, CapEx as a percent of sales is closer to 4%. And I think historically, you've been in that 2.5% to 3% type range. So going forward, is this the right way to think about CapEx, at a more elevated level?

John Garratt

Analyst · Oppenheimer.

No, great question. There's 2 pieces of that. And we have been, for the last few years, a little above 3%, but rounding down to 3%. This year, we're rounding up to 4%. And there's really 2 things I'd point to there. One is we've stepped up our real estate. We're accelerating our new unit growth, which obviously delivers great returns, and it helps the bottom line, but does add a little bit of CapEx. That impact is outsized this year really due to inflation, steel inflation. It's up substantially, still getting great returns even with that steel inflation factored in, still getting the same returns. We've talked about that 20% to 22% after-tax IRR. But that really is the nearer-term pressure, the commodity pressure from fixtures, HVACs, things like that as we do these projects. That we see that coming back down over time. If you exclude the impact of that near-term inflation, that puts us back to a point where we're back to close to where we were, rounding down to 3%. So we don't see something structurally different here other than we have stepped up our real estate, which is a great decision, which we're pleased with. But it's really the difference in the short term, is that commodity inflation.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Michael Lasser with UBS.

Michael Lasser

Analyst

There's puts and takes with your margin outlook for this year. But if you assume you take on a little bit of leverage to buy back stock, it could imply that your operating margin is flat to maybe down 20 basis points versus last year. And if that's right, have all the initiatives that you've deployed translated to Dollar General's operating margin now being about 100 basis points higher than it was in 2019? And to what extent could this be eroded moving forward by a return to promotions and discounting in the broader retail environment?

John Garratt

Analyst

Yes. Look, I'll answer your question. If I don't, let me know. But what I would start with saying is that we continue to see the initiatives contributing to operating margin at or above what we expected. They're delivering across the board. But there are some near-term pressures. We talked about the puts and takes of gross margin. And we -- as you look at the gross margin, the biggest piece of that being inflation. Much of which we don't believe is structural. And we see signs of that easing, and certainly taking actions to make sure that eases. When you look at the SG&A side of that, there, too, we don't see a structural change there. We've talked about some geography as we spend a little bit of SG&A to save more gross margin. Again, those initiatives are delivering at or above what we expected. Throws off the geography a little bit. The other thing we have talked about is we did see some wage inflation above norm. We've said in the past that our wage inflation was running about 3% to 4% pre-pandemic. It was higher this year. As we look ahead to next year, we expect it to be a little bit higher than that 3% to 4%, but lower than what we saw in 2021. And we're already seeing moderation there. And we're in a great spot in terms of staffing levels. So as I look at our EBIT, I don't see anything structurally changing there. And as I mentioned to Karen, you see the ability for us over the long term to modestly increase that over time while driving the top line, too. And so feel very good about the algorithm and our ability to manage all the levers within gross margin and SG&A. Hopefully, that answers your question.

Michael Lasser

Analyst

It's helpful. My follow-up question is the competitive dynamics in the environment are ever so changing. The mass merchants and the grocery stores have been comping well above Dollar General for the last several quarters, which is unique in recent history. And now there's likely to be some changes at you're a big competitor. So how do you see this playing out over the next few quarters? Do you see some of these share changes as just a function of the unique dynamics, and you can reassert the leadership that Dollar General has historically had in the marketplace?

Todd Vasos

Analyst

Yes. So Michael, this is Todd. I would tell you that there's nothing that we see that doesn't suggest that our share gains won't start to come back to historical levels as we move through 2022. There's nothing structural that says that our comps won't get back to a more algorithmic level over time. And I think you have to look at, we had well oversized gains in 2020. And when you start looking on a 2-year stack basis, we stack up pretty well on a comp to our -- to those other classes of trade and by far out-exceeded our chief competitor in the space. So we feel very good. And then you've heard John and myself already talk about all these levers that we have. These are not new, right? These are ones that are well established and some newer ones that are already being embedded in our -- inside of our chain, where we can deliver, we believe, comp sales as we continue to move forward. The first quarter is going to be a little challenged, as we've already said. But as we move through the rest of the year, we feel better and better about where that comp is going to be. And then lastly, I would tell you that, your first part of the question, the competition, I would say it's very much the way it's been. I would tell you, we're on a little over 2 years now of pretty tame promotional environment. Obviously, we've had to take some price as others have done on an everyday basis due to some of the inflationary pressures that have been well documented out there. Matter of fact, our pricing position has never been better. And as I said in my prepared remarks, our indexes are as good if not better than they've ever been. So we feel great about our everyday price. And promotionally, we don't see anything in the near horizon that would say promotional pricing is going to escalate to any large degree.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Chuck Grom with Gordon Haskett.

Charles Grom

Analyst

Todd, could you size up for us the impact that in-stocks have had on comps over the past couple of quarters? Particularly in your traffic trends. And looking ahead, where you are on the restoration of those in-stocks.

Todd Vasos

Analyst

Chuck, that's a great question, thanks for it. We believe it had a significant impact in Q4. We called it out in our prepared remarks. And due to many factors, one, obviously, we had some labor challenges in Q3 and Q4, in distribution. We're happy to report that we are now back to pre-pandemic levels on staffing. So we feel good about that. But it constrained our inbound and outbound. We also, if you recall, Jeff indicated in coming out of Q3, that we prioritized seasonal to ensure that our seasonal goods got on to the shelf. That slowed down our everyday goods onto the shelf and obviously gained more out-of-stocks there. Now as we move through Q4 and now into Q1, we feel much, much better about where our in-stock levels are. Are we back to historical levels yet? Not quite. But I don't think anybody is. The majority of our opportunities still lie within the vendor community in that the constraints from the vendor community has continued into Q1, not nearly at the levels we saw at the end of last year. But we continue to work with our vendor partners to ship on time and in full. And once we get to that point, which we believe we're working towards pretty quickly here, we'll be in much, much better shape as we move through the back half of the year.

Charles Grom

Analyst

Okay. Great. That's helpful. And then one for Jeff. You called out that sales per square foot in the 8,500 square foot stores is 15% higher than the typical box. I was wondering if you could just unpack the delta, where you're getting that greater productivity from?

Jeffery Owen

Analyst

Thanks, Chuck. We are pleased with our larger-format stores and really seeing that sales per square foot productivity. I think it goes back to what we've started a while ago, and that's really providing a fuller fill-in shop for our customers. When you build a bigger store, anybody can do that. But you got to have what the customer wants. And you got to have a customer that wants more from you. So this 8,500 and above square foot store allows us to really expand all the best of that merchants have brought to bear. So we've got expanded wellness. We've got our NCI in full. We've got our full cooler assortment in these stores as well. An expanded queue line. And quite frankly, room to grow. And so we also have produce in many of these stores as well. And so when you step back and you look at that, that's really what has driven the productivity in these stores. And I can tell you right now that we're just getting started here. And we look to be able to further serve our customer by listening to what she's asking for and leaning on our best-in-class merchant team, our supply chain team and operators that can execute this across a wide, broad group of stores. So feel real good about where that is headed in the future.

Operator

Operator

Our final question comes from Edward Kelly with Wells Fargo.

Edward Kelly

Analyst

Thanks for all the great color today. One quick one to start on SNAP. There's been a lot of investor anxiety around reduction in SNAP benefits, what it means for you because it has grown considerably as a percentage of sales. What are you seeing as these payments have decreased?

John Garratt

Analyst

Yes. We've seen a modest decrease as we moved through the year. It peaked middle of the year around May. We've seen it come down a little bit as some of the states rolled off the emergency allotments. But with the Thrifty benefits -- Thrifty Food Plan benefit still in place, it's remained elevated. So if you look at Q4 this year versus Q4 last, still well above where it had been, just not quite where it was at the peak in May. As we move into next year, we're anticipating it to continue to moderate somewhat. However, that may be tapered just based on the cadence of when states roll off of that. So as we look ahead to next year, what we're assuming is that it's down from -- the benefit isn't as much as it was this year, but still elevated to pre-pandemic levels. And again, we've been taking share over a long time with the SNAP customers as we serve them so well, and you'll continue to see that as a key part of our business.

Edward Kelly

Analyst

Great. And then just a follow-up on self-distribution. You talked about significant expansion, doubling this year. Can you talk a bit more about the benefits operationally? I think you mentioned significant competitive advantage. Maybe more detail on what you mean there. And then from a P&L perspective, this 20% cost saves, is that 20% of domestic freight? Like is that how we think about what you're saying there?

Jeffery Owen

Analyst

Ed, this is Jeff. First of all, thank you for the question. Our private fleet is something we started several years ago. And I think you nailed some of the reasons why we're so excited about it. First of all, our drivers are on the same team as our store teams, our merchant teams, and that's certainly just brings a better service to the overall operation. But also, it allows us much more flexibility in our control over the environment. And when you think about it right now, with about 20% of our outbound fleet, we're pleased with that, but we're even more excited about where this thing goes. And we like to use that term early innings. We're certainly in the early innings of this initiative. And as you mentioned, with the 20% reduction in our outbound transportation every time we convert, it's obviously a very good return. So as you think about this year, we're pleased to be at doubling that to about 40% of our outbound transportation needs. And we look to grow that even further over time as we scale this initiative and really distance ourselves and provide that competitive advantage because it is an incredible lever that we're able to pull. And excited that we started this several years ago.

Operator

Operator

We've reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I'd now like to turn the call back over to Todd Vasos for closing comments.

Todd Vasos

Analyst

Thank you, and thanks for everyone joining the call and for all the questions. And thanks for your interest in Dollar General. I'm proud of this team, which continues to execute at a high level, even in a consistently evolving environment. As you heard today, we're excited about our initiatives and plans for 2022, which we believe positions us well to grow same-store sales, new stores, operating profit margins and market share over time. Overall, a mature retailer in growth mode, we believe this company is in a very strong position, which I think speaks to our strategy, our resilience and the strength of our culture and our people. As I said earlier, I've never felt better about the underlying business model, and I can't wait to see what 2022 holds for Dollar General. Thank you for listening, and have a great day.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.