Svein Moxnes Harfjeld
Analyst · David Bruce, a private investor
I think we alluded to that. The stock market tends to front-run sort of the reality, if you like. This year, COVID-19 in particular puts a big dent in oil consumption in the world, so i.e. demand for oil. So, refiners have to cut their runs significantly. And this, of course, reduced the demand for transportation, i.e. to bring feedstock from the production areas and into the refiners. And this has sort of driven freight rates down quite meaningfully. And of course, at least in the near term, it also puts a question on demand for next year. And so, in that sense, you could argue that the stock market was correct. But our industry has a history of being very cyclical and volatile, and we don't think it will necessarily stop being cyclical. So, it's a question really of understanding when the oil market will rebalance being a combination of the cuts that OPEC+ is currently doing and, of course, that – to what extent – to what level oil demand will raise up again compared to where we were in 2019. So, keep in mind, also in this picture, that the fleet of tankers without anything – new investments happening now, the next couple years, it's likely to shrink because the order book for new ships is rather low, around 7% of capacity. But some 25% of the fleet is older than 15 and will retire in due course. So, you have some self-adjusting forces here, if you like. So, in our mind, it's more a question of when things will return rather than if.