Svein Moxnes Harfjeld
Analyst · John Chappell from Evercore ISI. Please go ahead
This is a difficult question - a complex question. But I guess, I think from my chair, and I should be - I'm humbled often say that I'm not an oil analyst. But I think Saudi's main objective, obviously, is price. And now there's sort of - is working for them, price is now up in the '80s. Of course, if they continue to hold back barrels, and you see the forecast demand coming into the fourth quarter and oil price will rock it. And that could, of course, also help our demand. So it's -- let's see how this all plays out. But I think they just want a higher price, and then they will be able to offer more oil to the market when they see demand really being out there. So that's sort of our simple take on it. And it, of course, remains to be seen what the case period will be. But of course, they want to make revenues as much as possible. And right now, I guess, the price increase is worth more than the loss of volume. So this is the key objective in our view. Exactly how much of the current sort of dip is due to the cuts or not. It's hard to put that into a spreadsheet and get an actual number. But -- so one thing that we picked up, which we found a bit interesting is that Saudi in particular, we understand, they consume close to 7,000 barrels a day for energy and in particular, running air conditioning during a very hot summer period. And we understand this year that they bought quite a lot of discounted the Russian fuel oil for that consumption and maybe allowing the cut to be less than 1 million barrels per day. And I think you've seen some estimates that the cuts actually happening is more in the sort of 650 to 750 level. So there is maybe 25% to 35% difference there. But to get all these details, I think we'll only figure out a bit later on, it's hard to have all this information in life, frankly. So if I can be more precise, John, but I think these are sort of the components of it in some shape or form.