Steve Ledbetter
Analyst · Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.
Sure. Doug, this is Steve. Thanks for the question. You mentioned two things specifically. One, I think, relates to supply. And so I'll talk about that a little bit. First of all, Q4, we're heading into the obvious winter demand slump and seasonal driving coming off and refineries finishing maintenance. But when we look in 2025, we believe it will be closer to mid-cycle for a couple of reasons. And on a larger basis, we think there's a lot of puts and takes in terms of shutdown and then demand coming -- or capacity coming on to the tune of around 300,000 barrels net new capacity. But we think demand should outpace that. Obviously, timing matters. But we feel like we'll be in a normal balanced margin environment for 2025, which is around mid-cycle. You also mentioned TMX, and we've seen some impacts clearly there with regards to crude values. Just as an example, the dips have narrowed. And when you look out through next year, we think that, that that light to heavy dip kind of stands at around $12.50 to $15 range, obviously, depending on several things. By example, Q1 of 2025 on the strip looks like it's roughly $6 less than it was in terms of Q1 2024. But we also see that our position in the Pacific Northwest, our ability to have -- be close to the dock, have plenty of dock capacity, the ability to take multiple crudes as more barrels get out over the water, we will be in a good position to go compete for those barrels. And then through the balance of next year, while those dips are slightly compressed until the production outruns pipeline capacity there at TMX, we will have some compression in those dips, and it will impact our Mid-Con and PARCO refineries. But again, we're well connected to many hubs, and we're working hard to optimize the crude slate and flexibility there. But as a lot, on balance, we believe that our 2025 is a bit more supportive towards mid-cycle. That's how we're calling it right now.