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Dynagas LNG Partners LP (DLNG)

Q1 2018 Earnings Call· Thu, May 17, 2018

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Thank you for standing by, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to Dynagas LNG Partners Conference Call on the First Quarter 2018 Financial Results. We have with us Mr. Tony Lauritzen, Chief Executive Officer; and Mr. Michael Gregos, Chief Financial Officer of the Company. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] I must advise you that this conference is being recorded today. And at this time, I would like to read the Safe Harbor statement. This conference call and the slide presentation of the webcast contain certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provision of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Investors are cautioned that such forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties which may affect Dynagas LNG Partners' business prospects and results of operations. Such risks are more fully disclosed in Dynagas LNG Partners filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. And now I shall pass the floor to Mr. Lauritzen. Please go ahead, sir.

Tony Lauritzen

Analyst

Good morning, everyone and thank you for joining us in our first quarter ended 31 March 2018 earnings conference call. I am joined today by our CFO, Michael Gregos. We have issued a press release announcing our results for the same period. Certain non-GAAP measures will be discussed on this call. We have provided a description of those measures, as well as a discussion of why we believe this information to be useful in our press release. Turning to slide three, to the benefits of the partnerships with the purchase options on Clean Ocean and Clean Planet two ice class 1A vessels owned by our sponsor was extended from March 31 through December 2018. On April 12, 2018, we announced the plan to reduce the quarterly distribution on the partnerships common units to $0.25 from $0.4225. The reduction took effect on May 3, 2018 up on the payment of the common unit distributions with respect to the first quarter of 2018. This decision by our Board of Directors to reduce to level of the partnership’s quarterly common unit distribution was necessary to align the partnership’s distribution level with his capacity to generate cash flow in the long term, despite some material increase in the partnerships, estimate the revenue contract and backlog over the last two years. We have experienced a decrease in operating cash flow and the weakened distribution coverage ratio following our shifts to longer term charters for the employment of our LNG carriers, which provide us with greater cash flow visibility of a lower charter rates that provide attractive returns of capital. As the partnerships shorter period of time charter contracts as peak charter rates have expired or are approaching expiration. We have capitalized on our managers operational track record and the versatility of the ice class designated LNG carriers in our fleet to secure long term employment contracts. Our adjusted EBITDA for the period was reported at 26.6 million with corresponding adjusted income of 7.2 million. The partnership reported a net income of 4.8 million and distributable cash flow was reported at 11.3 million. Quarterly cash distribution for the first quarter of 2018 of $0.25 per common unit was paid on the 3 May, 2018. The partnership also paid on 14 May, 2018, a cash distribution of $0.5625 for each of its Series A preferred units for the period from February 12, 2018 to 11 May 2018. Distributions on the Series A preferred units will be payable quarterly on the 12th day of February, May August, November at an equivalent of $0.5625 per unit provided the same as declared by the partnerships Board of Directors. I will now turn the presentation over to Michael who will provide you with further comments to the financial results.

Michael Gregos

Analyst

Thank you Tony. Moving on to slide four, the results of the quarter were within our expectations. We are pleased with our operating performance for the quarter with utilization at 100% and vessel daily operating expenses of $11,741 per day. For the quarter or average gross time charter hire on a cash basis, amount of the $66,300 per day per vessel, whereas our cash breakeven including our distributions to preferred and common unitholders amounted to about $59,000 per day. Moving on to slide five, in this slide we see the progress of our distributable cash flow since we went public. This slide provides the rationale for the 41% quarterly distribution realignment to $0.25 per common unit or $1 on an annualized basis, which we announced on April 18. As you can see from Q1, 2014 until Q3, 2017, the orange line representing distributable cash flow was consistently higher than the Blue Line representing our quarterly distribution to common unitholders. And as a result, we had a distribution coverage consistently above one. Subsequently, as Tony -- as advised by Tony our distribution coverage declined as previous legacy shorter term contracts at peak charter rates were replaced with longer term contracts which were concluded at lower, but still attractive rates as a consequence of both their longer term duration and market conditions at the time they were entered into. The distribution reduction was a necessary move in order to address the misalignment between cash generated by our fleet and the cash paid out our common unitholders. Moving onto slide six, the realigned cash distribution has minimized the impact of tapping into our existing cash balance in order to fund distribution and results and annual cash savings of 24.5 million. The aligned distribution provides for greater stability and sustainability. We do find it…

Tony Lauritzen

Analyst

Thank you, Michael. Let's move onto slide 10, to summarize the partnerships current profile. Our fleet currently accounts 6 high specification and versatile LNG carriers with an average age of about 7.8 years in an industry we're expected to useful, lifetime is 35 years. We have a diversified customer base with substantial LNG companies, namely Gazprom, Statoil, Petrochina and Yamal LNG, which latter is a joint venture between Total, CNPC, Novatek, and the Silk Road Fund. Our contract backlog is about $1.46 billion and our average remaining charter period is about 10.2 years which compares very well versus our peers. Our vessels have also served customers such as Shell, Qatargas, RasGas, Marubeni, Woodside, coal gas CPC, North West Shelf and several other major oil and gas companies. We therefore have a large customer base that we are able to contract with. Moving on to slide 11. Our fleet of LNG carriers are largely fixed on long-term charters with strong and reputable LNG companies. Drivers for our charters were the characteristics of the fleet including its ice class notations and our organization’s track record. After employing the clean LNG to Petrochina and extending the Artic Aurora to Statoil, we only have limited availability going forward in 2018 and onwards, we are 85% contracted in 2018, 92% in 2019 and 100% in 2020. Assuming that, the Yenisei and Lena River will enter their longterm charters at the earliest stage in their delivery windows. We are now pursuing opportunities for the availability that we have in 2018, given that we believe the market is on an improving trend. Let's move to slide 12, our sponsor Dynagas Holding owns a fleet of 9 LNG carriers which are all on long-term contracts. Four of those LNG carriers are fully Arc-4 type of those four carriers…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And your first question comes from the line of Randy Givens from Jefferies. If you could please ask your question.

Q - Randy Givens

Analyst

Thanks operator. Yeah. So now that the distribution is more aligned with the suitable cash flow, do you feel like this current level is pretty easily sustainable in the coming quarters and years? And then more importantly, do you expect to be able to increase the distribution back to that minimum quarterly distribution of $36.60 after the Yenisei River and Lena River charters with Yamal commence next year?

Michael Gregos

Analyst

Yeah, definitely. What we wanted to achieve was this alignment. And as for the foreseeable future this distribution, as I mentioned before is sustainable. Basically the expectations that we have on the market, there are some moving parts as I mentioned, which are the Lena River and Yenisei River. Again how long they're going to be in this sport market and what they’ll make. But under a reasonable scenarios; yes, definitely this distribution is sustainable. Now I think it's a bit too early to discuss distribution increases at this particular stage. Our focus is more on sustaining the current distribution and refinancing our unsecured notes.

Randy Givens

Analyst

Okay, that's fair. And then you mentioned the delivery windows for the Yenisei and Lena River, what determines when that was actually get delivered, that kind of a decision you make or is that Yamal’s decision? How did that work?

Tony Lauritzen

Analyst

Well, its a decision that a charter will make, when it's pretty normal to have a narrowing down window given new project. So basically the way that he works with that, some sometime in advance we receive the notice which is narrowing down the window. So it's difficult to say exactly what Yamal will do going forward, but what we have seen so far with the Yenisei River is that they have narrowed down the window to the earliest possible days so far. So whereas, the original window was the full calendar 2019 for the Yenisei, it is now first half of 2019.

Randy Givens

Analyst

Okay. Excellent. I guess just last one for me. When do you expect to refinance that 250 million senior unsecured note. Would that be a 2018 event or are waiting till the first half of 2019 and it's doing not until October of ‘19.

Michael Gregos

Analyst

Yeah, I would say it’s -- we believe it's going to be a 2018 event.

Randy Givens

Analyst

Okay. Excellent. Tony, Michael, thanks so much.

Michael Gregos

Analyst

Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Fotis Giannakoulis at Morgan Stanley. If you could please ask your question.

Fotis Giannakoulis

Analyst

Yes. Hi guys. And thank you for the opportunity. I want to follow up about the concern about the some of the analyst have raised about distributable cash flow during this period until the Yamal charters begin. Is there a way that you can give us that this distribution the $0.25 per quarter, can be at least below a certain level. What is the breakeven point that might put -- for these two vessels that might put your current distribution at any risk, if any?

Tony Lauritzen

Analyst

Well, that's a good question Fotis. When we make a decision on the distribution, you don't base it on, overly optimistic or overly pessimistic scenario. We all know where the market is. We all know what expectations are for the market? So all I can is that it's based on expectations which are reasonable. We're not counting on extreme events in either case.

Fotis Giannakoulis

Analyst

Is that a way that you can tell us what could be an extreme event that would force you to reduce this distribution based on the development of the spot charter rate Yamal for these vessels?

Tony Lauritzen

Analyst

No, there isn't. I can tell you. There's no specific number I can tell you because it's not just, what was portray, it's various other parameters also. But, I think when you're trying to say give me a number, its not so simple. All I can say is that, we experience let's say extreme scenarios, which we're not, we don't believe its going to happen. Then that's something to be discussed, but that's more of a longer term discussion. It's not a near term discussion.

Fotis Giannakoulis

Analyst

A - Michael Gregos

Analyst

It's going to be as similar bond to the one that we already have. So another unsecured bond is most likely going to be used to refinance the unsecured note within this year.

Fotis Giannakoulis

Analyst

Okay, perfect. And can you get moving a little bit on the dropdown, the potential drop down? So you have a very long pipeline over vessels with long term charters. The question is, how you think that you can finance this dropdowns given the underperformance of the stock? Are there any thoughts about alternatives that we can facilitate as dropdowns? And what would be the potential timing of a certain event?

Tony Lauritzen

Analyst

Fotis that’s another good question. As I said, we are going to focus on refinancing our unsecured notes. As you said the, there were quite a few analysts who would rate this as an issue and once that is done we will be able to focus on growing the company and dropping down. And hopefully the refinancing will, reduce our cost of capital. So we will be able to consider dropping down vessel. So it's dropping down is not our immediate priority. It's the refinancing of the notes.

Fotis Giannakoulis

Analyst

Okay, perfect. Tony, I want to move a little bit on the market. The developments, oil increased significantly since last time we spoke. I'm wondering whether you see more activity on the -- from the customer side, from the buyer's side to sign volumes – to sign SPAs, long term SPAs? And if you see any momentum on signing SPAs on oil, on and we have link the volume – on U.S. gas linked volume?

Tony Lauritzen

Analyst

Thank you, Fotis. Maybe I can answer that question indirectly because, we don't sell the gas side. So when it comes to the actual underlying SPAs you know, we not first call for that. So, but what we do see is that, I mean, back to the presentation we said that in 2017 we saw above 30% of all U.S. volumes going to the Far East. In Q1 and the earlier part of Q1 for covering the winter market, we saw actually more than a 60% of U.S. volumes going to the Far East. So it's a tremendous shift. So we believe that, now with the oil price, but where it is now, it creates a very good opportunity for sales into the Far East at good prices. And we are really seeing a flurry of a shorter term charters, so like 6 to 12 months starting from relatively prompt up to the back end of this year to cover this the winter period. And quite some time into 2019. So right now, starting from let's say a 10 days ago, two weeks ago or so, there is a lot of activity in the market.

Fotis Giannakoulis

Analyst

Thank you Tony. I want to ask you about the way that the shipping market is developing, given the facts about the -- we have seen a significant growth of LNG – on the global LNG market. But these growth primarily coming, in the last few months from a growth in the spot volume, which I assume that also have an impact on the availability of long term contracts for ships. If volume is sold sport, I would assume that also ships are being chartering the spot market. Is there any shift in this market that, you will have eventually in the next few years to charter your vessels only and the short term contracts. And I'm not talking about this specialized project like the Yamal project, that they require vessels, ice class vessels. I'm talking about the majority of the projects. And how would that affect the required rate of return when you do projects? And if you can give me an idea, what would be the rate that you would need to get in order to make an acquisition?

Tony Lauritzen

Analyst

Yeah, thank you. So well, to start with your first question, yes, there is the transition from longer term charters to shorter term charters that are going, let's say, in the same path as the development of the LNG spot market. So today, I think that the LNG spot market, so the amounts of spot sales versus long term sales are much larger than the spot shipping markets. I mean what we see is that, a lot of big portfolio player, they are very active in the commodity and the spot market of the commodity, but they use their shipping portfolio to trade around this. But that being said, yes there is dependency to shorter term charters just in general. If we put this in the big picture, then of course if we go back two decades, you would have all this 20, 30 years deals and these are not so common anymore. And now you see deals for new bills being between 5 and 10 years and sometimes occasionally beyond that. So that is why we believe that it is important to offer something that is beyond just the conventional shipping which is what we do. We offer this to trading icebound in harsh environments and we believe it is prudent going forward to offer something that your peers cannot offer.

Fotis Giannakoulis

Analyst

Thank you very much, Tony. Thank you Michael.

Tony Lauritzen

Analyst

Yeah, I mean to be honest, we haven't taken a view on what would be the required return for acquiring know vessels that would be on the short term market. I mean, for example we, I mean we wouldn't do that. The end of the peak, the partnership wouldn't engage at this time in vessels that would not have long term cash producing contracts on them. We would rather look to find assets that are more in general in the infrastructure asset environment. And it doesn't necessarily have to be appear LNG carrier and tried to find opportunities down that path.

Fotis Giannakoulis

Analyst

Thank you, Tony. Thank you, Michael.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. Please continue.

Tony Lauritzen

Analyst

Well, we would like to thank you for your time for today and we look forward to speaking to you on our next call. Thank you very much.