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Transcript
OP
Operator
Operator
Greetings. Welcome to the Dollar Tree, Inc. Q3 2025 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, participants are in a listen-only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to Robert LaFleur, Senior VP of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.
RL
Robert LaFleur
Management
Good morning, and thank you for joining us to discuss Dollar Tree, Inc.'s third quarter fiscal 2025 results. With me today are Dollar Tree, Inc.'s CEO, Michael Creedon, and CFO, Stewart Glendinning. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that some of the remarks that we will make today about the company's expectations, plans, and future prospects are considered forward-looking statements under the safe harbor provision of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by our forward-looking statements. For information on the risks and uncertainties that could affect our actual results, please see the Risk Factors, Business, and Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations sections in our Annual Report on Form 10-Ks filed on March 26, 2025, our most recent press release, and Form 8-Ks and other filings with the SEC. We caution against any reliance on any forward-looking statements made today, and we disclaim any obligation to update any forward-looking statements except as required by law. Also, during this call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP items to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are provided in today's earnings release available on the IR section of our website. These non-GAAP measures are not intended to be a substitute for GAAP results. Unless otherwise stated, we will refer to our financial results on a GAAP basis. Additionally, unless otherwise stated, all discussions today refer to our results from continuing operations, and all comparisons discussed today are for 2025 against the same period a year ago. Please note that a supplemental slide deck outlining selected operating metrics is available on the IR section of our website. Following our prepared remarks, Michael and Stewart will take your questions. Given the number of callers who would like to participate in today's session, we ask that you limit yourself to one question. I'd now like to turn the call over to Michael.
MC
Michael Creedon
Management
Thanks, Bob. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us to discuss our third quarter results. It's great to be with you again. When we recently gathered in New York for Investor Day, I said this was the start of a new era for Dollar Tree, Inc. One company, one brand, one focus. Our energy is now directed towards strengthening and growing the Dollar Tree, Inc. business. We delivered a high-quality quarter accompanied by mid-single-digit comps, above outlook earnings, and strong end-of-quarter momentum heading into the holidays. These results speak to our disciplined execution and focused strategy. Let me start by framing the quarter at a high level, then Stewart will take you through the financial details. First, I'd like to highlight the strength of our discretionary business, which showed its first positive year-over-year mix shift since 2022. We believe this strength illustrates how our exceptional value proposition, including our growing multi-price assortment, is resonating with our shoppers by helping them meet their needs and desires in the budget-constrained environment that many consumers find themselves in today. The three pillars that define Dollar Tree, Inc. are value, convenience, and discovery. Those are not slogans. They're how we win. They describe a brand that offers customers compelling values across a variety of price points that help them do more with less, in stores that are easy to shop and full of surprises worth discovering. While the consumer landscape remains uneven, the underlying story remains consistent. All consumers are seeking value. Marrying that value-seeking behavior with convenience and discovery is the intersection where Dollar Tree, Inc. thrives. And the evidence is clear. Dollar Tree, Inc. continues to gain share and attract new shoppers while continuing to serve its large and loyal base of core customers. Today, we serve an increasingly broad…
SG
Stewart Glendinning
Management
Thanks, Mike, and good morning, everyone. Q3 comp sales increased 4.2% and adjusted EPS was $1.21. Both our comp performance and our adjusted EPS were ahead of the expectations we shared in mid-October. The 40 basis points of Q3 comp acceleration between October was driven by a late but strong performance in Halloween sales on the back of a deeper multi-price assortment and excellent execution across our stores. Dollar Tree, Inc.'s seasonal assortment and value resonated strongly with shoppers. Our EPS improvement versus expectations was largely driven by freight, higher discretionary sales mix, and SG&A. With that, let's go over the details of our third quarter results. Q3 net sales increased 9.4% to $4.7 billion. Consistent with our expectations, Q3 comp growth was primarily ticket-driven as traffic was slightly negative. Average ticket growth was supported by increased multi-price penetration, particularly across our Halloween assortment and the pricing actions we began rolling out last quarter. Importantly, strong execution around merchandise costs, tariff mitigation, freight, and operating expenses helped drive profitability. Q3 gross margin expanded 40 basis points to 35.8%. These results reflect the strength of our assortment and the agility of our merchandising, supply chain, and store operations teams. The key drivers of this improvement were merchandise margin, successful execution of our five merchant levers, renegotiation, reengineering, shifting country of origin, discontinuing, and targeted price changes. All contributed to our ability to manage increased costs from tariffs. Freight, import, and inbound freight rates were favorable versus prior year, with lower spot market utilization and better container flow through at our DCs. Domestic transportation costs were also favorable. Mix, discretionary, and seasonal categories, particularly Halloween, were stronger than expected, increasing the realized mark on. Markdowns, as part of the ongoing strategic initiative to increase shelf productivity that we outlined at Investor Day,…
MC
Michael Creedon
Management
Thanks, Stuart. Let me wrap up by putting Q3 in the broader context of where we are and where we're going. When we shared our roadmap at Investor Day, we said this transformation was about focus, consistency, and accountability. We believe Q3 was a strong proof point that our strategy is working. We delivered above-market comps, expanded gross margin, and continued to make meaningful cultural progress across the organization. Today, Dollar Tree, Inc. is a pure-play value retailer with the scale and focus to compete at the highest level. Post-Family Dollar, we have clarity of purpose, and our teams are responding with renewed intensity. As we look to Q4, the setup is solid. Halloween was great, and our Thanksgiving and Christmas assortments are resonating with our customers as we remain focused on consistently delivering unbeatable Wow value and the thrill of the hunt experience. As 2025 winds down, let me wrap up by saying first to our associates, thank you. Your dedication, creativity, and pride in the work you do are what makes Dollar Tree, Inc. special. To our customers, thank you for your trust and loyalty. For choosing us for the moments big and small that matter the most in your daily lives. And to our shareholders, thank you for your continued confidence and partnership. With that, Stuart and I are happy to take your questions.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you. We will now be conducting the question and answer session. One moment please for our first question. First question comes from the line of Matthew Boss with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.
MB
Matthew Boss
Analyst
Great, thanks and congrats on another nice quarter. Maybe I'll maybe two parts. Mike, could you elaborate on drivers of the same-store sales acceleration that you saw in October? Speak to comp trends that you've seen in November that support the 4% to 6% comp guide? And then Stewart, could you just help break down gross margin expansion opportunities in the fourth quarter? And how best to think about gross margin puts and takes maybe at a high level for next year?
MC
Michael Creedon
Management
Yes. Sure, Matt. As we looked at how the quarter runs unfolded, the Halloween was just a great finish to the quarter. It did come as we see in times like this, people buying for need and a little closer to need. So it came a little later, but it came incredibly powerfully. And, it came with a record number. If you go back, Easter performed that way. A great Easter, a great Halloween. Our setup for Thanksgiving and Christmas is just fantastic. So we really look at what we've done with multi-price and how the assortment's gotten better and our customer across all incomes is really resonating with that. And providing just fantastic seasons for us. So we feel really good about our guide on the four to six.
SG
Stewart Glendinning
Management
Matt, let me pick up on the gross margin for the fourth quarter and then just talk a little bit about next year. So first of all, as we think about the fourth quarter, the same kind of levers that you saw in the third quarter, we detailed some of that in our supplementary materials as well as in my prepared remarks, are going to be drivers in the fourth quarter. You will see a very powerful fourth quarter on the back of those drivers. If you look at next year and just think about next year, freight is a benefit certainly in that fourth quarter. It came through in the third quarter. As you look to next year, both freight and markdowns are the areas that we'll be watching. If you think about how we operate our business, we buy to a margin. And so when we set up our goal for next year, we shared with you that we said we would be equivalent to this year's margin plus or minus 50 basis points, and that's the place that we're targeting. There may be continued benefit in freight as we move into next year. There is some belief that perhaps on the freight side, we will see a tightening of capacity later in the year, and we are watching the potential shortage of drivers. Understand that the reason I bring up the targeted gross margin is because we use those five merchant need levers to achieve that margin. So I think the margin you can take to the bank for next year. The second piece is to refer back to the Investor Day materials that we had. And in our recent investor day, we shared with you an algorithm said we would achieve high teens improvement next year. That's on the basis of that same gross margin achievement and based on some of the discrete items that we're expecting to see in coming years. So we're set up well for next year. And I think that probably gives you the main drivers.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Lasser with UBS. Please proceed with your question.
ML
Michael Lasser
Analyst · UBS. Please proceed with your question.
Good morning. Thank you so much for taking my question. It's on traffic. And obviously, this was the first decline in traffic that Dollar Tree, Inc. has experienced in a while. To what degree is that as a result of some of the legacy households pushing back on the price increases that have been taken in the last couple of quarters? And if that's the case, does that give you any pause on your ability to achieve this high teens EPS growth next year in light of the prospect that you might have to make some investments in order to recapture those households that are just dissatisfied with the pricing changes? Thank you so much.
MC
Michael Creedon
Management
Yes. Michael, we really see traffic as a mix between some internal activity, namely the re-stickering, and some broader retail trends. We don't see it as a pushback from our customer. And if you look at our performance in the quarter, we had great growth across all income cohorts. And our core customer really had our highest comp. So we look at it and say, we saw the traffic decelerate in that August, September time frame. That was the peak of our re-stickering. Those red stickers were the peak distraction for us. And then it was good to see traffic strengthen towards the end of the quarter really on the backs of that Halloween and that great strength in Halloween. So we believe there was some, you know, broad-based retail traffic deceleration around back to school, some of the sticker shock around back to school. But as we got into the real core of what Dollar Tree, Inc. does and does, we think, better than anyone, we saw the strength in our Halloween and we're very excited about what Thanksgiving and Christmas and all the seasons can do for us.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of John Heinbockel with Guggenheim Partners. Please proceed with your question.
JH
John Heinbockel
Analyst · Guggenheim Partners. Please proceed with your question.
Mike, two quick ones. When you think about traffic or divergence between traffic and units, so you sort of is the idea traffic will be strong units, maybe to a lesser degree because you're basically trading people into higher price point items. Talk about that divergence in your mind. And then secondly, you know, if the units are gonna grow at a slower pace, how do you think about space allocation and replanagramming the stores, you know, over maybe the intermediate to longer term?
MC
Michael Creedon
Management
First of all, thanks, Rob. We'll always follow our customer on that. We believe that the customer is resonating incredibly well with multi-price. We're hearing that in the surveys we're doing. We're seeing it in how our customers are performing in the store. And that real strength in the comp of that core customer. So, yes, when we look at the store, when we take multi-price, we'll take away sections of a dollar 25. And so your units will naturally decline there as you take that space and make that space more productive. So we do see some of that. But we believe, you know, the proof point we have from break the dollar was that you took up the price of the whole store. There were elements of the store that just didn't work, and our merchant team took the next buying cycles to really recover that. What we've seen here in this multi-price evolution and some of the re-stickering we did based on the inflationary cost environment is that the units have performed better. The traffic has performed better. And we're confident we can continue to drive that value in our product across these price points and continue to give the customer exactly what they need. So we see that coming together very well for us, and we'll respond to the customer and their trends with how we set up the store.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Edward Kelly with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question.
EK
Edward Kelly
Analyst · Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question.
Yes, hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my question. I wanted to ask you about the mix of multi-price as you think about next year. Just looking out, it does seem you'll have more conversions. I would imagine you're still doing more merchandising around that, improving the multi-price mix. So how do you think the stores look from the standpoint of the multi-price offering as we think about next year? And then how does that play into the way that you are thinking about driving comp next year in terms of traffic versus ticket? Thank you.
MC
Michael Creedon
Management
Yes. Thanks, Ed. I mean, really want to start with saying 85% of the store is still $2 or less. So we're still early in this multi-price game. And when you look at what the seasons have done, we're gonna continue to benefit in those seasons from the multi-price assortment. And we're really looking at everyday essentials and where we can benefit in the assortment there and the shift towards multi-price. Where it ultimately goes, our customers will respond to us, and we'll respond to them in terms of building it out. But I know it's higher than where we are today, and it's something that we believe sets up a multi-year run where we're able to respond to our customers, wow them with new discovery, and not just at the season. But new discovery every day because multi-price contains something on a wow table for us or on an end cap. That shows them something they couldn't believe they could get at that price. Even though it's a price, you know, higher than $2. So we're delivering the everyday value with the majority of the stores still at that $2 or less. And we're wowing the customer in what we bring into the multi-price assortment.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Paul Lejuez with Citi. Proceed with your question.
PL
Paul Lejuez
Analyst · Citi. Proceed with your question.
Hey, thanks guys. Curious if you could talk about Thanksgiving weekend and what you saw from a traffic versus ticket perspective. It sounded like you saw a pickup in traffic around the Halloween period. Curious what you saw Thanksgiving week and weekend. And then that 85% number I think you're talking in terms of units, in terms of the percent of the store that's still $2 and below. What percent of sales would we should we think about being above that $2 level? And how does it split between discretionary and consumables? Thanks.
MC
Michael Creedon
Management
Yeah, Paul. Let me clear up the first one. So first of all, it's sales dollars that are at the 85% of the stores, $2 or less. That is on sales dollars. As we look at how the quarter has started, I said in my prepared remarks, we're really pleased. We look at the strength of the seasons, the Thanksgiving setup for Christmas, what we've seen so far in Christmas. So we feel really good about the guide for the fourth quarter. You know, we've got one period in. And we're feeling really good about where we sit.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Rupesh Parikh with Oppenheimer. Please proceed with your question.
RP
Rupesh Parikh
Analyst · Oppenheimer. Please proceed with your question.
Good morning and thanks for taking a question. I also have a two-part one. So just on the elasticity front, just curious on the categories you took pricing related tariff and price increases. Just curious how that played out. And then if we do get tariff relief, you know, how do you guys approach that, whether on those savings or letting it flow to the bottom line? Thank you.
MC
Michael Creedon
Management
Yeah. Thanks, Rupesh. I mean, the elasticity has really, you know, it's coming as we've modeled it. It's very manageable. It's really offset by the mix we see in the multi-price. But most importantly, the value perception is intact. Our customers are responding across all income cohorts, core customers, new customers, the 60% of the new 3 million that have come in, making more than $100,000. So we believe that the elasticity is very manageable. Then I do think it's important to go back to that break the dollar moment. What we saw there, it's a proof point. You can go back and look. See what happened with traffic. And now our performance, we believe, and what we're seeing in our numbers is better than that. And gives us the confidence in the path we're on on this. You know, as for the tariffs, I know it's been a lot in the news. We have, I think, one of the very best global sourcing teams in the business. They are all over this. They've got great partners watching this. We'll see how it unfolds with the Supreme Court. And we'll take action from there.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Simeon Gutman with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.
ZM
Zhihan Ma
Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.
Hi, this is Zach on for Simeon. Thanks for taking our questions. Just a couple from our end. Back to the traffic question, is there a way you could compare your frequent and most loyal customers to those who are more episodic and, you know, would you say there's a similar deceleration in traffic trends between both of those groups, or is there a gap in the trend?
MC
Michael Creedon
Management
Yeah. When we break it down, we really look at more our sales across all those income cohorts. It's really important to us to make sure that as we know multi-price skews and attracts more towards higher income, that we are committed to the base of our business, which is that core customer, that customer that makes, you know, around $60,000 a year. And we were particularly pleased with how our comps performed at that core customer. They had our highest comps in that customer. And so we think that our customer, whether you're new to Dollar Tree, Inc. or you shop us, you know, several times a month, that you're finding what you need as you seek if you seek out affordability, you're finding exactly what you need at Dollar Tree, Inc.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Scot Ciccarelli with Truist. Proceed with your question.
SC
Scot Ciccarelli
Analyst · Truist. Proceed with your question.
Good morning, guys. Scott Ciccarelli. I think we all understand that there was some internal disruption as you re-stick our product. But with the negative traffic this quarter and the expectation to keep expanding MPP, should we just expect 4Q and next year to have a similar mix of traffic and ticket that we saw in 3Q? In other words, it's prime all the comp is primarily driven by ticket. Thanks.
MC
Michael Creedon
Management
Yes. Scott, it's hard to say. We can go back and we know what we saw in Break the Dollar. You saw the multiple quarters in the traffic performed there. We believe this time around, we were much more strategic. I mean, back then, the only choice was raising everything to a dollar 25. And as I've mentioned, you had a healthy percentage of the store that just didn't work at that new level, and the merchant team had to go over several buying cycles and reengineer products and renegotiate and get product that did work. And you saw what happened with traffic recovery. This time, we were much more strategic in how we took that. We really feel that we have found the right value places to take price, and our customers responded. If you look at value we took in Halloween or in Christmas, I mean, our customers responded incredibly well to that move. So I look at it and say, I think we were more strategic this time, or we at least had a more strategic opportunity available to us this time, and we'll see how the traffic plays out.
SG
Stewart Glendinning
Management
Yeah. And maybe one other thing just to supplement. I think if you want if you go back to the investor materials we laid out, I mean, that entire strategy is set up to drive higher sales in stores. Via productivity on the shelves, via the way we intend to market to customers. And based on the way we intend to run better stores. I think that entire setup really is organized to enhance the traffic and the ticket flow.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael with Evercore. Please proceed with your question. Michael, could you please check if you're self-muted?
MM
Michael Montani
Analyst
Yes. Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. Was going to ask if you could share what the average selling price was in 3Q versus the time a year ago, and then curious if you think that you'd be able to get that level of price increase again in 2026 to drive comp?
MC
Michael Creedon
Management
Yes. Our AUR right now is right about 50. When you look at that, value over time, it's pretty remarkable. Considering, you know, what this company's done, what other prices have done. So we look at it and say, our customer is gonna tell us with their comps, with their wallets, that we're hitting the right points in terms of value, convenience, and discovery. One of the things that we really turn to is that expanded more relevant assortment. So, yes, it comes at a higher ticket, but it's still an incredible wow for the customer. It fits their occasion, the purpose for their trip. And whether it's a great pack size for them that helps them. Or just an item that helps them celebrate, and they love it. So we feel that while the AUR moves up, it does so lock squarely into that value play for the customer.
SG
Stewart Glendinning
Management
Keep in mind, one other item is that obviously, as our multi-price penetration increases, so that will also move AUR. That is not price dependent. And I think if you looked at the supplementary materials and you look at how well the multi-price worked in Halloween this year, it will give you a sense for the kinds of benefit we might see going forward as we drive that multi-price harder.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Zhihan Ma with Bernstein. Please proceed with your question.
ZM
Zhihan Ma
Analyst · Bernstein. Please proceed with your question.
Great. Thank you. Just one quick clarification on corporate expenses. Did it come in a bit better than your prior expectations? If you can provide a bit more color there, that'll be really helpful. And then a quick one on next year. Given the trade-in you have seen from middle to higher-income consumers, what does the tax refunds, the incremental refund next year do to middle to high-income consumers' shopping behaviors in your mind? Thank you.
SG
Stewart Glendinning
Management
Yes. I'll pick up on the first part, Stuart here. The SG&A did come in better than we expected. As we get ready to set ourselves up for next year and achieve some of the aggressive savings targets we've set up. We've been squeezing down on SG&A. Some of those savings came in a little bit faster than we had expected.
MC
Michael Creedon
Management
Yeah. And then I'll take the second one. I look at the tax refunds of the OB3, big beautiful bill. You know, would you offer the best value in retail? You benefit when people have more money in their wallet. And Dollar Tree, Inc. has the best value retail has. And we think we'll benefit as they get more money in their pocket.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Kelly Bania with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
KB
Kelly Bania
Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
Good morning. Thanks for taking our questions. Wanted to ask about the consumables, the market share trends there from a unit perspective. They seemed quite strong in the first half but really shifted in the third quarter here. I was just curious if you had any explanation of what you think is happening there. Is that attributable to the sticker, the re-stickering, impact or any other color on the market share trends there?
MC
Michael Creedon
Management
Yeah. Kelly, you know, the red dots is kinda how I'll answer that. It really peaked for us. In this Q3. It was the mass distraction. I will tell you, though, as we've seen trends from our customer post that, you know, we track via customer surveys, scrapes of websites and, you know, star ratings and all that. The sentiment of our customer that really peaked negative in that August, September has improved every week. So the fewer mentions of pricing, more positivity, less negativity, we've been watching that. And every week, that's gotten better. So, you know, we don't love that we had to create that environment for our customer. It was a necessary evil to continue to deliver for them and give them product at a value. But, you know, it is what it is, and it's behind us now. The red stickering is basically done. You get a little bit as you take some pack away. It's basically done. The distractions behind us, and our stores and customers are responding very favorably.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Joseph Feldman with Telsey Advisory Group. Please proceed with your question.
JF
Joseph Feldman
Analyst · Telsey Advisory Group. Please proceed with your question.
Thanks for taking the question, guys. When you talked about that higher-income consumer, to get them to visit more often with more frequency, I'm just wondering how you guys plan to go about that. Maybe is it more stimulus from a marketing standpoint? Or I don't know what other methods that you might be thinking of, but how do you get them to come more frequently? Thanks.
MC
Michael Creedon
Management
Yeah. We love that this customer's finding us. We wanna create a very sticky relationship with them. We believe it is the more relevant assortment, so continuing to wow them each season that they come up and for their everyday essentials with items they just can't believe they found. Remember, you don't come into Dollar Tree, Inc. with a list and your head down, and I have to get this. You come in with your head moving around, looking at all the things that are wowing you. So that relevant assortment creates a sticky relationship, and then there is nothing more important than running better stores. Our store standards are on the move up. And we believe that as we continue to improve the in-store experience, those customers are gonna wanna come more and more often.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Robert Ohmes with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.
RO
Robert Ohmes
Analyst · Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.
Hey, thanks for taking my question. Wanted to follow-up on the last question. Just it's impressive how you guys are gaining all the new customers and the info you gave us on that. Just help me understand gaining all these new customers at all these income cohorts versus negative traffic? Like, how does that happen? Is somebody are there cohorts dropping out or coming a lot less frequently and that's offsetting all these new customers that you guys have gotten to come to the stores? Maybe a little more color on, like, what's happening there?
MC
Michael Creedon
Management
Yeah. Robbie, it's really a question of frequency. So you're driving new customers to the store, which is I mean, 3 million new households. Yes. They're skewing a bit higher income. But the strength of our business is still in that core customer, their purchase frequency, their, you know, comp dollars. We believe that these new customers come in. We can increase their trip frequency too. When they find better-run stores and they find an assortment that keeps them coming back. So right now, they're coming in, you know, because of a Halloween or they're coming in for a great season. And then what they find in the store when they're there in health and beauty and in everyday essentials. That's what keeps them coming back. If you look at Dollar Tree, Inc., compared to some of the folks we aspire to be, the difference is not in our ticket. The difference is in trip frequency. We believe we've got an opportunity to unlock increased trip frequency with these great newer trade-in customers.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Bobby Griffin with Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.
BG
Bobby Griffin
Analyst · Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.
Hey, good morning guys. Thanks for taking the question. Just curious if you could expand a little bit more on shrink and where you are in that journey of bending that line item. And then I don't think it was discussed at the Investor Day, but what is embedded in the multi-year outlook for shrink? Is that elevated rate first pre-COVID or is it a return to 2019 rates?
MC
Michael Creedon
Management
Yes. I'll start with that, with the focus we have. You know, we learned a lot about shrink from Family Dollar. Family Dollar has, you know, a higher shrink threshold, if you will. And we were able to bend the curve over there. And so we've really reorganized how we're addressing shrink at Dollar Tree, Inc. It's not as simple for us as it is other we can't just go rip out a bunch of self-checkouts and improve our shrink. We don't have self-checkout, in any large capacity. So for us, it has to be leveraging training of our people, leveraging technology to address shrink over time. And then in terms of how it builds, Stuart?
SG
Stewart Glendinning
Management
So, Bobby, Stuart, we have built in some improvement in shrink as we move forward. I mean, we've made these changes to people and process. We're investing money in our secure in our asset protection. And we expect that to bend the trend. So that is built into the forward expectations.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Chuck Grom with Gordon Haskett. Please proceed with your question.
CG
Chuck Grom
Analyst · Gordon Haskett. Please proceed with your question.
Hey, thanks a lot. I have just a question on the SG&A line. In Slide nine, you talk about the unit trend going from 100 to 89. So there's a clear benefit, you know, from running fewer units through the store on freight and handling expenses. But when we look at the core SG&A line, can we unpack the 160 basis point increase in SG&A? And then also looking ahead to the fourth quarter, how are you thinking about the complexion of both gross margins and SG&A in the last quarter of the year?
SG
Stewart Glendinning
Management
Yes. So Chuck, Stuart, when you really look at SG&A in total, the big driver for SG&A increases is really in-store payroll. That whole space. We do have some increases, as we said before, both in D&A based on store investments and also in general liability claims. Those are probably the big areas to think about. If I unpack the store payroll for you a little bit earlier in the year, we commented on the fact that first, we were faced with some rate increases. A number of those were driven by state minimum wage increases. With the increased investment in hours, and a third was stickering. Let me come back now to your unit point, and I because I want to look forward to next year. If you're thinking about next year, the stickering is sort of largely gone. So that piece is not gonna be pushing on our P&L. In fact, that's a benefit. The rate increases, we believe that that rate is going to start to moderate, and that's going to help us next year. And then the last piece on the hours side, actually, the hours side, exactly the point you've just made. The success of multi-price, in fact, allows us to move fewer units through the store. Do we invest some hours in running stores better, that'll give us the flexibility to decide do we take the unit do we take the hours down. Hopefully, that gives you a good flavor for your question. I think it puts us in a better position overall.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you. We have reached the end of our question and answer session. I would now like to turn the floor back over to Michael Creedon for any closing comments.
MC
Michael Creedon
Management
Hey, thanks for joining us today, and we wish everyone a safe and healthy holiday season. Enjoy the rest of your day.