Good morning, ladies and gentleman, welcome to the BRP Inc.'s Fiscal Year '25 First Quarter Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. And I would now like to turn the meeting over to Mr. Philippe Deschenes. Please go ahead, Mr. Deschenes.

Thank you, Sylvie. Good morning and welcome to BRP's conference call for the first quarter of fiscal year '25. Joining me this morning are Jose Boisjoli, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Sebastien Martel, Chief Financial Officer. Before we move to the prepared remarks, I would like to remind everyone that certain forward-looking statements will be made during the call and that the actual results could differ from those implied in these statements. The forward-looking information is based on certain assumption and is subject to risk and uncertainties and I invite you to consult BRP's MD&A for a complete list of these. Also, during the call reference will be made to supporting slides and you can find the presentation on our website at brp.com under the Investor Relations Section. So, with that, I'll turn the call over to Jose.

The first quarter of fiscal 2025 play out essentially in line with our plan. Financial results were as expected and reflect our focus on managing network inventory to support our dealers. From a retail standpoint, our product portfolio performed relatively well despite softer market condition. As the year continues to unfold, our dealers are very cautious with respect to inventory, as uncertain economic condition and high interest rate are impacting them more than anticipated. Moreover, many OEMs are turning to more aggressive promotional activity and dealer profitability is under pressure, as they are selling at low margin to move inventory. On the marine side, the industry has been softer than expected since April, and dealers are taking a limited number of new boats. As you know, we have always been close to our dealers and proactive in taking market conditions. Therefore, in light of the current context, we are adjusting our production to further reduce dealer inventory. This is reflected in our updated guidance. Let's turn to Slide 4 for key financial highlights. Revenue reached $2 billion, normalized EBITDA was $247 million and normalized EPS was $0.95 all as expected and consistent with our planned volume reduction. As for retail, our North American powersports sales were down 5%, in line with the industry, with a solid performance in year round product, offset by softer trends in seasonal product, as you can see on Slide 5. In fact, our year round product retail was up 11%, with solid growth and market share gain across all product lines. Meanwhile, seasonal products were down, reflecting a soft end of season for snowmobile, due to unfavorable winter condition, softer overall industry trend in marine, which also impacted the Sea-Doo switch and a difficult comparable for personal watercraft, as Q1 last year was unusually strong.…

Thank you, Jose, and good morning, everyone. Our first quarter results came in essentially in line with our expectations. Looking at the numbers, revenues were down 16% to $2 billion primarily due to lower shipments and higher sales program. We generated $480 million of gross profit representing a margin of 23.6% down 210 basis points from last year. This decline was primarily due to lower shipment volumes and higher sales program, partly offset by a richer mix of products, favorable pricing and cost efficiencies. Note that an important margin headwind was related to our marine business as we significantly reduce shipments and introduce new promotions during the quarter. Meanwhile, our powersport gross profit margin remained strong at 26. 2%. Continuing down the P&L, our normalized EBITDA ended at $247 million and our normalized earnings per share at $0.95 dollars. Free cash flow came in stronger than anticipated at $66 million driven by our tight management of CapEx and working capital. From a usage perspective, we continue to actively return capital to shareholders with a 17% increase in the quarterly dividend and through $47 million of share repurchases. Now for an update of our network inventory. Our dealers inventory ended the first quarter up 23% from last year. This increase was in line with our expectations as we faced a difficult comparison with last year's overall linear inventory levels. And we ended the snow season with more inventory due to the unfavorable winter we just experienced. Note that snowmobile accounted for 43% of the year-over-year increase. From Q4, we began making progress in rightsizing and improving the quality of our off-road inventory which was down 6% sequentially, including more important reductions in non-current models and in categories that are experienced softer retail trends. As for other product lines, the inventory evolved…

Thank you, Sebastien. Over the short term, we are focused on protecting our dealer value proposition by managing network inventory and proactively adjusting our shipment. Looking beyond this correction year, we remain confident in our long-term strategy. Our agility is a significant advantage and we have proven many times over that we are geared up to respond to evolving market conditions and continue to outperform the industry. We are managing the business to ensure continuing success, and we are committed to investing in the development of market shaping product in true BRP fashion, who will keep on innovating to strengthen our leadership position in the powersports industry. On that note, we look forward to hosting our dealer event in August, and you are invited to join us in Anaheim, California. As usual, we will introduce new technologies and product to bolster our lineups. We are also on plan to launch our promising new Can-Am electric motorcycle, which will allow us to enter a new industry. I thank all our employees for their hard work and dedication. Their capacity to adapt to changing market dynamic enable us to continue to succeed in a challenging context. I also acknowledge our dealers for supporting our lineup and for their confidence in our ability to provide them with a superior value proposition. On that note, I turn the call over to the operator for questions.

Thank you, sir. [Operator Instructions] And your first question will be from Craig Kennison at Baird. Please go ahead.

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. You talked about inventory. I'm wondering if you could share with us the percentage of your powersports inventory that is non-current?

Good morning, Craig. Obviously the non-current inventory is a subject that we've heard quite a bit about and we're actually when I look at the overall retail numbers for the first quarter, about 65% of the total retail that we did was current inventory. So we're actually in a very good position from an inventory point of view and that's pretty much in line with the industry as well where they were trending in that percentage as well. The inventory that we have is, let's say, non-current model year 2023 less than 1% of the total inventory that we have is model year 2023 and over. So what we have left is model year 2024 and that is relatively clean and the rest is current inventory. And as I mentioned for Q1, 65% of our retail was current inventory. So that's an indication of how healthy it is.

Thanks. I'll get back in the queue.

Thank you. Next question will be from James Hardiman at Citi. Please go ahead.

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my call. So on the last call, I thought it was really helpful sort of your view as we look through some of the noise. I think you said something along the lines of it felt like from an underlying earning power perspective, more of an $11.50 type year in terms of earnings. Once we add back some of those, if you want to call them one time-ish cost. I guess, a couple of months later, the guidance is down another $1. 25. I guess maybe if you could take us through a similar exercise. Does this still feel like an $11.50 type year, once we sort of get past some of these one timers costs?

Yes, good morning. First, I will just give you high level what have changed since March. And I would like to put things in perspective to start with. The inventory in unit is up 36% pre-COVID, but our retail is up 50% versus pre-COVID then our turn of inventory is better than pre-COVID. And we're fully aware that the increased value of the unit have changed. There is new product line that switch size of the product has got bigger. And obviously, the cost of carrying an inventory is putting pressure on dealer to move product and retail and deal retail at low margin. What has changed since last guidance is the high level of snowmobile that is confirmed, the softer trend in marine and the US market that is softer for the first time in a while. Then if you combine all this to the macroeconomic context, the competitive landscape and the high interest rate, all this is a lot at the same time. And we were aware of those elements and it's no surprise to us. But to be honest, we have not anticipated how dealer react to the accumulation of those factors. And this is why we decided to reduce inventory by an additional 5%, now up to 15% to 20% by the end of the year. We will also limit shipment of seasonal product outside of the core retail season. And we are investing in more promotions support to move inventory faster. Then all of this is obviously impacting the financial performance. And you can be sure that we don't like having to reduce our guidance just one quarter into the year. But again we believe it's essential that we protect our value proposition with the dealer and it's the right thing to do for the long-term success of the business.

Yes, and if I give you a bit of color to this year and it is in fact a transition year and we do have few headwinds that you mentioned that will turn into positives in the near future. And I would bucket them into three categories. Obviously, the first one is the impact of the snow season where we're reducing deliveries and being more promotional this year. The other element is the marine business, which I highlighted this morning. It's a drag on earnings of $1.50 and obviously that's unacceptable and we're obviously going to work to fix that. And the other element is the one-time element of reducing inventory. Inventory turns are better than pre-COVID. Usually, they gave you some color on the retail versus the inventory. So the inventory is a healthy situation because of the higher interest rates obviously. Dealers are more cautious on taking on inventory, but that 15% to 20% inventory reduction is a drag to revenue as I mentioned of $575 million to $775 million. So when I package all of these three elements together, there are like a $3 to $4 of EPS that will come back to our earnings post fiscal year 2025, yes. Does it all happen next year? Obviously, we're going to certainly work to make sure that we crystallize that as quickly as possible. But obviously these one-time headwinds are certainly impacting our financials this year and on a normalized basis, the earnings potential of BRP is much higher than what we're presenting as a guidance this morning.

Got it. That's really helpful. And then maybe as a follow-up, I mean you noted a couple of times about limiting inventory carrying costs and wanting to protect dealer profitability. And I think implied there is that it's at the expense of your own profitability in a lot of cases. So this sounds like somewhat of a sort of a goodwill play, right, that that dealers will appreciate the support that you're giving them. I guess maybe speak to what you're seeing in the broader industry and if there's broader sort of industry support to protect the dealers. And ultimately, did you get that back, right? Does that goodwill, as we look forward benefit you in some tangible way or some financial benefit? Thanks.

Maybe just to add, over the years, we are the OEM who invest the most in R&D and in CapEx. And we're pushing to gain market share in all the product categories and we proved that over the last few years. And we always say to our dealers, you can expect from us that we'll push for market share, because we are investing more than the competition and we deserve with the product innovation and the investment we deserve to gain market share. But you can count on us that if there is a hiccup, we will support you. And this has been our speech for the last 20 years with the dealers. And here we are in a situation where we are after the COVID bubble and we want to make sure that we support our dealers and we are sure that it's the right thing to do for the long-term of the business.

Got it. That's helpful. Thanks guys.

Thank you.

Next question will be from Jonathan Goldman at Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Good morning and thanks for taking my questions. Maybe to start off, Jose, I mean, you did discuss this in your prepared remarks, but could you discuss specifically how the competitive environment has changed in Q4? And relatedly, what gives you confidence that the additional actions you've taken to right size production will be sufficient and that competitive intensity won't accelerate through the year?

Yes. First, like we said, there is more promotional activity. And also some OEM have reduced their pricing on the new model. And this is putting pressure. And some OEMs are still pushing the dealer to take more. Then you can say, is this will play in your favor or not? But I would like to remind you the dynamic for multiline dealers. Then, we're convinced that reducing inventory will increase inventory turnover and reduce the floor plan cost. And for a multi-line dealer, they have a credit line for each OEM. It's not one credit line for all the OEM. Each OEM brings its financial partners. And by reducing our inventory does not mean that the other will fill the credit line. Then the other thing that is different versus other OEMs, we are more than an ORV business. We are the leader with high market share in watercraft and snow. And we will make sure that we're reducing shipment that will help the dealer and will ship closer to the retail peak of those big product lines for us. Then, overall, and you could see some market share plays from month to month, depending on the action of the other OEM and the sales program and the dynamic in the industry. But for this year, we're still planning to gain share in ORV and maintain our leadership position in watercraft and snow. And again, we're convinced it's the right thing to do.

I appreciate those comments. That's very helpful. And I guess a follow-up then is, do you have any visibility or do you have a sense of how much excess inventory is in the industry generally related to current demand levels?

Well, as I've mentioned, I mean our inventory levels are healthy, our turns are better than pre-COVID. I don't think it's a question of having way too much inventory. It's much more a question of the higher interest rates, the current macro environment, the marine business that is softer and that's making dealers more hesitant on taking more inventory for the fear of having that huge floor plan interest expense that they have to pay. And again the floor plan cost for dealers is in the probably in the 13% to 14% range and so it is quite expensive. And in a context where dealers are more cautious on inventory means they're more discounting hence making less profit and when you add that floor plan cost it obviously puts more pressure on their profitability. So it's not a question of having too much inventory, it's more a question of dealers being more cautious given the current context. And again, us as OEMs, we have that ability of reducing our deliveries in order to give them a bit more breathing room.

That's great color. Thank you very much. I'll get back in queue.

Thank you. Next question will be from Joe Altobello at Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Thanks. Hey, guys. Good morning. I guess, first question sort of broadly, has your North America powersports industry retail outlook changed at all? I think last quarter, you were talking about an industry down low-single-digits.

We've done a few tweaks to the outlook, especially on the seasonal side and that's where we've adjusted the guidance more for seasonal on Sea-Doo switch and on the Sea-Doo watercraft. But overall, pretty much in line with what we had versus last guidance. And one good indication of this is that we've maintained our P&A guidance equal to what it was previously, because retail is a big driver of the P&A business. So overall, no big changes other than the seasonal business.

Okay. And just a follow-up on that, the increased promotional activity and support that you cited in powersports, is that across the board or is it concentrated in particular product categories? And how does that compare maybe with the competition? Are you guys generally more or less promotional than other players?

It varies by product category. Obviously, for snowmobile, everyone has been more promotional because everyone ended with more inventory. We are in a relatively good position when you look at our market share versus the inventory that's remaining. What we've seen as well is that OEM has introduced new models with price reduction. And so that's a new phenomenon that we're seeing. But overall, yes, the industry is more promotional. Dealers are more promotional as well and OEMs are more promotional because they see that dealers are hesitant to take on inventory and therefore offer a higher wholesale incentives or even retail incentives as well.

I guess just in terms of off-road vehicles, are you seeing in that space as well?

The promotional, yes, it's in that space as well for ORV. And marine, I would say, the pure traditional marine business is significantly more promotional than the powersport industry.

Okay. Thank you. Thank you. Next question will be from Cameron Doerksen at National Bank Financial. Please go ahead.

Yes, thanks very much. Good morning. Just want to ask about marine. I mean, obviously, it's difficult to predict when that market will start to rebound. But just wondering what actions you can take if we don't get a return to more healthy market conditions? I mean, obviously, you mentioned the $1.50 drag on EPS, but is there something you can do to try to make that business more profitable even if we don't get a significant rebound in underlying demand?

Good morning. Obviously, it's not the start that we were planning and when we were up and running. We were ready and up to run. The industry softened more promotional activity and this season dealers are very hesitant to take inventory. And it's a difficult environment and obviously nobody could plan that. What I would say is, right now what we have done, we have reduced to a minimum our production between now and the end of the year for both Alumacraft, Manitou and Switch. In Australia, Quintrex is in line with the industry and the reduction is lighter. But basically we reduced production to a minimum and now we're working to deplete the inventory of the dealer. Then you can expect minimum production of model year 2025 and we will restart in 2026 with more normal volume. Then this is a transition year. We need to go through that bubble of inventory. Early in the year, we were thinking that it would be a one year correction. It might take to the industry, not us, a bit more than one year, maybe 18 months to correct this bubble of inventory. Obviously every business in our portfolio needs to contribute. And marine is no different. And we believe we have the right strategy. We just need to go through this industry normalization or the inventory normalization.

Okay. That's helpful. And obviously, if you've reduced your workforce, I think, for some of the marine segments, but is this going to represent a challenge when you do restart production? I mean, obviously, there's a fair bit of, I guess, skilled labor required and fuel, I think, production efficiencies have been somewhat of a challenge as it is. Just wondering how you sort of manage that re ramp once it does come?

No, you're totally right. There is a lot in those factory know-how and we did make sure that we keep the right level of people to be able to ramp up when things get better.

Okay. That's great. I'll pass the line. Thanks very much.

Thank you.

Next question will be from Mark Petrie at CIBC. Please go ahead.

Thanks. Good morning. Mostly just wanted to follow-up on a couple of the topics you hit on. I guess, just specifically, the guided decline for Q2 would imply that the second half EBITDA will actually be modestly higher than what you had previously guided to. I think just hoping you can help square that up. Is that mostly sort of unchanged revenue and gross margin, but just lower costs and that's tied to the cost reductions you've put in place or can you just clarify that please?

Yes, it's a combination of elements. We're taking a harder adjustment on the volume deliveries in the second quarter. Some of these units will be delivered in the third quarter. But in order to give immediate relief to the dealers from an inventory point of view, that's why we decided to reduce shipments significantly. So we'll be shipping some of the snowmobiles that were initially planned in the second quarter, in the third quarter, closer to retail season as well. And also, yes, obviously as you saw in the bridge, we're driving higher cost efficiencies which are going to payoff in the second half of the year, helping the overall EBITDA and EBITDA margin as well.

Yes, okay. And could you just elaborate on the actions you took with regards to the cost structure and that $0.75? I mean, you alluded to that being mostly in marine, but any color would be helpful. And do you think of those as permanent cost reductions and efficiencies or mostly temporary?

Some of it are permanent, some of it are temporary. I'd say the reductions we've had probably split half is variable compensation given the lower profitability. And the other half is efficiency. Obviously, over the last four, five years, our business has grown significantly and the operations team have been hyper focused on adding capacity and producing units in challenging COVID times and sometimes we were producing these units at any cost. Now obviously with reduced volumes, the teams are able to rethink the way they operate, reassess efficiencies in the plant. And we're actually getting a lot of savings coming from a greater focus from our teams on driving lean practices in our business, which as you see is helping compensate some of the headwinds we have this year.

Okay. So it's fair to say that, sorry, go ahead.

That would be permanent, Mark. Yes.

Yes, understood. But I guess just to clarify, so that half of the $0.75 which you're calling efficiency, most of that would actually be outside of marine, it sounds like?

Yes. Yes.

Okay. All right. Thanks for that. Take care. All the best.

Thank you.

Thank you. Next question will be from Fred Wightman at Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Hey, guys. Good morning. I just wanted to come back to the promotional outlook and you did talk about some incremental promos in powersports and Marine. And I think in the past you talked about still being a little bit below pre-COVID level. So can you sort of level set where that current expectation would put you? Are you going to be higher than sort of normal pre-COVID levels for this year?

Yes, currently the -- when I look at the forecast there were pretty much in line. I'm looking at the powersport business, we're in line with where we were pre-COVID. That is in a context where interest rates are higher and any retail financing promotions are more expensive as well. So from a percentage of revenue basis, we're pretty much in line with where we were pre-COVID.

Okay, that makes sense. And when you take a step back and you talked about interest rate headwinds, retails been mixed across different categories like what gets dealers comfortable ordering again? Do you need to see a pickup in retail? Is it really just a matter of a couple of rate cuts lowering these floor plan rates? What is sort of the big catalyst that gets people comfortable going forward?

Well, certainly, I mean financing is probably let's say 500 basis points higher for them versus pre-COVID. So it's obviously a big dent in their profitability. And so if we were to see rate cuts happening, who knows when that would certainly provide more comfort for the dealers and their appetite to take on more inventory. Certainly that's something that is going to help.

Okay. Thanks a lot.

Thank you. Next question will be from Benoit Poirier at Desjardins Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Yes. Good morning, everyone. Just looking back at Marine, obviously, you provide great color about the weather, the promotional activity. We know there has been sizable investment with the Stealth technology. So any more color? What -- how would you qualify the market acceptance of your new stealth technology and any change in the strategy for marine going forward? I'm just trying to know how committed are you to the segment given the contribution right now?

Good morning, Benoit. So far and again the product have not been there long, but so far what we call the MAX Deck. The MAX Deck is always the platform extension in the back of the boat. You're gaining four feet or six feet depending if a single or dual engine. This is a big value for the consumers. And this is only feasible if you have the Rotax stealth engine package. And so far, we have Manitou is available with MAX Deck. Alumacraft is coming with their model right now. And this is basically what we were betting for when we developed this new technology. And this is so far well received by the consumers. Obviously, like I said in my remarks, the timing to introduce those new modes with that feature is not ideal. But we need to first deplete inventory and be patient with the strategy.

Okay. And with respect to PwC, it seems that you're looking market share when you look at your trends versus the industry. It looks like Canada right now is much stronger than the US with respect to PwC and ATV. So I'm just wondering the discrepancy between two country, whether it's more weather related or the competitive landscape. Is it more aggressive right now in US versus Canada? What explain basically the discrepancy between both countries?

First, our market share in Canada is very high. It's over 75%. And Canada has always been a good market for watercraft. I would say it's a bit too early, Benoit, to conclude anything. The big retail season for watercraft is May, June, July. And the watercraft customer is impulse buy. It's relatively low priced product and it can go very fast up or down depending of the weather, obviously, depending of the overall situation. Then I think we have good momentum in Canada, softer in US. But I think it's too early to call if it will be a good season or a very good season or not so good season. I think it's too early. But so far, Canada is doing well, a bit lag in US. We'll see how things evolve.

Thank you very much.

Thank you. Next question will be from Robin Farley of UBS. Please go ahead.

Actually, I had a similar question on the marine outlook. Just given you've had in ORV and snow, great market share and great share growth and marine maybe doesn't have that sort of position to recover back to even when the market gets better. So I wonder if you could kind of give us a thought on it. It seems like it would actually be fairly additive to earnings if you exited the marine business. I'm just wondering how you see that longer term? Thank you.

Well, just a comment, Robin. With the high market share we have in watercraft and snowmobile and we are getting in off-road many and us we need to continue to plan for to grow the business. And if you remember the addressable market, we have a third of the powersports industry. And we need to plan mid to long-term where we will continue to grow because we will continue to grow in powersports, but we need to plan what's next. And marine obviously, it's the same scale that we have on powersport and it's a big market. And we believe we can be successful there. Again, like I said, the timing of our production could not be worse and we didn't execute perfectly either. But this is a long-term play. We just need to go to the bubble and this is a long-term play. And we will next year reduce our expenses in that product category.

Okay. Thank you.

Thank you. Next question will be from Tristan Thomas-Martin at BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Good morning. How has May trended at retail?

I would say, first, we don't have industry data yet. But so far May is a bit softer than what we were initially anticipating. We just been through the memorial weekend in the US. We don't have all the registration yet in our system, but the feedback we have from the dealer is a bit softer than what we thought. But again like I just explained memorial weekend is the start of the season in US for all the marine product. And it's a bit too early to say how it will go. So far BRP off-road is performing good. Watercraft switch is a bit lower than what we were planning. And obviously, the marine product is lower than what we were planning. Then this is basically where we are. But again I would be careful because we are very early into the marine season.

Okay. Let me just kind of sneak in one more question. You alluded to one of your competitors cutting pricing a couple of times, is that something you would consider?

Of reducing pricing?

Yes.

Well, obviously when you look at the whole lifecycle of our product, if we're able to drive cost efficiencies in our product, obviously pricing is something that we would consider. But the pricing adjustments we've made over time to increase pricing was in line with the inflation that we saw. One thing that we're mindful about is people who brought a product six months ago or 12 months ago, if you come out with a new model year and you're discounting the new model year, obviously it reduces the whole value proposition for that consumer. And so obviously our focus is let's bring innovative product, let's bring great products to the market, let's make sure we reprice that PVA for the customer. And then in the end, consumers see the value that you're bringing that they're willing to pay for the innovation, the novelty. And in situations where markets are more tougher, we prefer to use retail incentives in order to drive consumers to the dealer and stimulate sales. So it's a complex balance, Tristan, and all that.

Got it. Thank you.

Thank you. Next question will be from Martin Landry at Stifel. Please go ahead.

Hi. Good morning. I may have missed it, but did you change your assumption for your retail sales in North America this year and for industry retail sales as well. And I was wondering if you can just update us on these assumptions?

Yes, we had the questions a bit earlier, Martin, maybe you missed it. But we did a few tweaks on the seasonal business and that's why we adjusted the guidance. That's where we've made some adjustments internally, but nothing more significant on the ORV side.

Okay. And I heard in your opening remarks, Sebastien, you talked about powersport gross margins being around 26.2%, despite sales being down in the high teens. Can you just it looks like it's pretty solid despite sales decline. Can you just talk a little bit about what's like how are you able to sustain your gross margin despite the lower sales?

Well, it's been part of our long-term strategy of obviously leveraging our growth through our Mexican footprint, driving innovation to the consumers and also in sourcing some technology. We've talked about turbocharging, we've talked about modularity with our engines, with our platform. I think when you take the sum of all of that and also the focus of the teams on efficiency, when you take the sum of all of that even though we have lower volumes, even though we've put more programs in the quarter, we're still able to drive very healthy gross margins for the powersports business. And so the long-term strategy we've had as you can see today is paying off.

Okay. Thank you.

Thank you.

Next question will be from Brian Morrison at TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

Good morning. Seb, I know you made tweaks to your assumptions. What are your assumptions within your guidance with respect to retail sales volumes and your net pricing? And is the message that your destocking will be complete by the end of Q3?

Well, the destocking is going to happen throughout the year because snowmobile destocking is going to be a Q4 element. ORV dealers are going to feel it right away in the second quarter. And so it's going to be progressive, but a big part of it will happen in the second quarter. Inventory could probably be down versus Q1 and the second quarter, it's probably down 15%. In terms of pricing, obviously, we're going to club, as Jose mentioned, in a few months and we'll obviously be introducing new products, and new model year and we'll revisit our assumptions then. You'll appreciate that for competitive reasons. We won't necessarily disclose what our plan is. But as I mentioned earlier, we want to make sure that we price the value that we bring to our consumers and also we prefer using incentives as a way to stimulate retail sales when things are tougher.

Maybe to add on this on the pricing from your question, but the previous question. This is a very it's a science. We always measure the technology we have in our product versus the competition, all the feature and how much the customer is ready to pay for that feature and that feature. Then that don't mean because another OEM reduced pricing that automatically we will follow. It depends on how product is competitive and what are the value of our feature and our technology and our product versus others. Then don't take for granted that because another one do it, we will follow automatically. We're doing our homework right now and we're preparing for the model year '25 launch at Club in California.

Okay. Sorry, just to clarify, I appreciate that color. To clarify, in terms of your retail sales volumes, do you expect them to be flat to down? And then just to follow-up, Seb, within this base level of earnings that everyone likes to focus upon, what is your normalized EBITDA margin within those $10 or $11 whatever you want to call it?

Well, on the in terms of retail obviously to give you a global number probably doesn't give you the full appreciation of what we're driving, but the expectation is that for ORV retail will be up in the low-single-digit. And for seasonal products business, we expect retail to be down, softer obviously personal watercraft market, we had a very strong retail last year, switch as well expected to be down because of the marine business. And snowmobile, obviously with the softer snow we had this year, it impacted obviously our retail expectations and so we're expecting our seasonal business to be down probably in the high-single-digit.

And sorry just the EBITDA margin that you factor into your base level of earnings?

Well, we've communicated the expectation that EBITDA should come back to 17% for us with the size of the business we have, with the investments we've made in modularity and technology. We certainly believe that a 17% EBITDA margin is something that should be achieved even when you look at the implied guidance for the second half of the year, we'll actually be fringing close to that 17% EBITDA margin in a year where we're cutting deliveries. So it's certainly something that we believe is achievable.

Very good. Thank you very much and good luck.

Next question will be from Xian Siew at BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.

Hi, guys. Thanks for the question. I think in the previous guidance, net price was supposed to be a $0.50 benefit and now I guess $0.75 headwind. So maybe putting that together $0.25 year-on-year headwind. I guess is that how do you what gives you confidence that this is enough like just like a $0.25 headwind? And is this kind of the new normal on promos or do you think promos get better next year?

Well, certainly when I look at the promos, one of the big costs of the promos is the high interest rates and so it's costing us more money. And so if rates were to come down and hopefully they do in the near future, obviously, that's going to reduce the cost to us for these promotions and less of a headwind from a margin point of view. And again based on what we have in our forecast, what we see today, we believe the pricing assumptions and the program assumptions we have are sufficient. We've taken important provisions for the marine business at the end of Q1 and also planning for some programs in the second quarter. So I again with the guidance we have, I'm comfortable that we have enough money to go through what we see today in terms of overall demand.

Okay. It's very helpful. And then maybe just can you elaborate a bit more on the gross margin assumptions between marine and powersports? I mean, it sounds like marine is still negative, but I mean to your point, the 26% powersports gross margin, is that like how do we think about the rest of the year relative to that?

Well, the margin was obviously impacted in the quarter from higher promotions, but again margin in the back half of the year are planned to be a bit higher than what we delivered in the first quarter. Usually the second half of the year we see better margins as well historically. From the mix of the products that we ship, we usually ship obviously new model year, snowmobile, premium models for side by side at the start of the season and that tends to drive higher margins in the back half of the year.

Okay, very helpful. Thank you.

Thank you. Next question will be from Luke Hannan at Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead.

Thanks and good morning. Jose, on the last call, I know you gave good color on how the snowmobile industry has sort of bounced back from periods where units industry units were sort of lower than expectations. I'm curious when we think about the marine business, I think I heard you correctly and that it probably is going to take about 12 to 18 months for inventory to normalize there. How does that compare to maybe past periods where retail was a little bit softer and dealers had excess inventory to work off?

I think the two industry are quite different. In the snowmobile, you have only a few OEMs and we are the market leader. And the snowmobiler is very, I would say, enthusiast about the sport. And what is happening on snowmobile is, like this year, there will be quite a lot in the next season, but there will be quite a lot of model year 2024 with discount and the model year '25 reduced numbers. And this is why the snowmobile industry typically is quite resilient after a bad snow season. On marine, the big difference is a lot of smaller OEMs were supplying the industry. And there is a lot of different behavior between the OEM. And this is why it's a bit more difficult to predict, but it will take probably more time like I was saying. We were planning that it would be corrected in 2025. Now we say maybe it will take two seasons to correct the industry bubble, the inventory bubble that is out there. But the dynamic is a bit different because of the number of OEMs that have different behavior.

And when we say two seasons, we maybe do 75% in this season and then 25% in the next.

Okay, appreciate that. Thanks. And then a very quick follow-up. Seb, I think I heard you correctly, it's still expecting 750 million of free cash flow. What do you have baked into your assumptions as far as working capital goes?

Well, we do expect a slight tailwind from working capital. As we've shared in the past, we were still running with high raw material inventory, post-COVID and supply chain challenges. So, we kept higher safety stocks, but now we're progressively reducing these. And so I'm expecting probably a tailwind of about 100 million from working capital this year.

Thanks.

Thank you. Next question will be from Jamie Katz at Morningstar. Please go ahead.

Thanks for squeezing me in. I just have one question on CapEx. It looks like you guys have taken CapEx down just a touch this year, but are we thinking about maybe moderating any of the bigger projects over the next year or two, given that the environment looks like it might remain soft a little bit longer than previously expected? Thanks.

Yes, we're actually selective in how we deploy the CapEx. And as we've shared in the past, we're comfortable with the capacity we have today. So we don't see us needing to add more capacity in the mid-short term. And so we're good there and but obviously we'll continue investing in technology and so that's CapEx investments for new products, you'll see that. But again, this year, I think we're at the right level with where the business is and we'll make sure that we continue driving returns and drive good free cash flow as well for the business by being selective in our investment decision.

So does that imply that maybe next year it will be around the same spend level or perhaps just slightly higher as things resume rather than picking up again?

Yes, it could be slightly higher. That's certainly something that's possible. Not to the levels we were in the last few years, but a bit higher than this year is a possibility. Could you add 50 million, 75 million? Yes, we could.

Excellent. Thank you.

Thank you. Next question will be from Brandon Rolle at D.A. Davidson. Please go ahead.

Good morning. Thank you for squeezing me in here. Just a couple of quick questions. First, just on off-road vehicle. Given what's going on with some of the other OEMs being aggressive with their shipping approach, do you feel as though there could be a market share headwind in the near term over the next couple of quarters because they're continuing to ship aggressively while you're kind of pulling back on inventory and introducing a new model you're kind of out of season?

Like I said in my question before, my answer before, each dealer, each multiline dealer have a credit line by OEM then we don't an OEM the dealer cannot fulfill with other product lines our credit line. And this is a well we believe we will have despite the reduction in inventory, enough inventory not to miss retail. But also, it could happen that a month we lose some, but we gain some. But overall for the year, we still believe we will gain a few market share in the off-road business.

Okay, great. And just finally, I think you had mentioned you're going to be introducing electric motorcycle at your dealer event in August. Could you just kind of talk about what you're seeing in the electric motorcycle market and reasoning for why you think now is a good time to kind of introduce a new model there? Thank you.

First, this project has started about three years ago. Then everything is done. The investment is made. But I have to admit that I had the chance to try the product myself and it's funny. In the last two days and today, there is dealers from Europe and North America that are writing the product and we get their feedback and we feel quite optimistic about our product and how it will be competitive in that new segment for us. But again, I think you cannot ignore the trend that you see in the electric products. It's slowed down over the last few years, but it's still there to stay. And we believe we have good product and we need to start somewhere. The beauty of what we have done is the power pack that we're using on the motorcycle is exactly the same power pack that we have on snowmobile. And this part of our power pack will end up in other product lines. Then you can leverage multi product line with one investment in the electric power pack. And we believe it's a long-term play, but we believe it's the right thing to do for the continuation of our business.

Great. Thank you.

Thank you. At this time, I will turn the call to Mr. Deschenes to close the meeting.

Thank you, Sylvie, and thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning and for your interest in BRP. We look forward to speaking with you again for our second quarter conference call on September 6th. Thanks again, everyone, and have a good day.

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, this does indeed conclude your conference call for today. Once again thank you for attending. And at this time we do ask that you please disconnect your lines. Have a good weekend.