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Daqo New Energy Corp. (DQ)

Q2 2024 Earnings Call· Mon, Aug 26, 2024

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Hello, and welcome to the Daqo New Energy Second Quarter 2024 Results Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Anita Chu, Investor Relations Director. Please go ahead.

Anita Chu

Analyst

Hello, everyone. I'm Anita Chu, the Investor Relations of Daqo New Energy. Thank you for joining our conference call today. Daqo New Energy just issued its financial results for the second quarter of 2024, which can be found on our website at www.dqsolar.com. So today, attending the conference call, we have our chairman and CEO, Mr. Xiang Xu; our CFO, Mr. Ming Yang, and myself. The call today will begin with an update from Mr. Xu on market conditions and company operations, and then, Mr. Yang will discuss the company's financial performance for the quarter and the year. After that, we'll open the floor to Q&A from the audience. Before we begin the formal remarks, I would like to remind you that certain statements on today's call, including expected future operational and financial performance and industry growth, are forward-looking statements that are made under the Safe Harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement. Further information regarding these and other risks is included in the reports or documents we have filed with or furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission. These statements only reflect our current and preliminary view as of today and may be subject to change. Our ability to achieve these projections is subject to risks and uncertainties. All information provided in today's call is as of today and we undertake no duty to update such information except as required under applicable law. Also, during the call, we'll occasionally reference monetary amounts in U.S. dollar terms. Please keep in mind that our functional currency is the Chinese RMB. We offer these translations into U.S. dollars solely for the convenience of the audience. Mr. Xu will make his remarks regarding current market conditions and company performance in Chinese, which I'll translate into English after he finishes. So now, I'll turn the call to our CFO -- to our CEO. [Foreign Language]

Xiang Xu

Analyst

[Foreign Language] Hello, everyone, this is Anita. I'll now translate our CEO Mr. Xu's remarks. [Interpreted] The solar industry experienced significant challenges during the second quarter, as market prices fell across the solar value chain to below production costs for nearly the entire industry. As end-of-quarter polysilicon ASP fell below our production cost, we were required in accordance with accounting rules to record a non-cash inventory impairment expense of $108 million because our inventory market value fell below book value. This had a significant negative impact on our cost of revenue, gross loss, operating loss and net loss. Nevertheless, we continued to maintain a strong balance sheet free of financial debt. By the end of the quarter, we had a cash balance of $997 million and a combined cash and bank note receivable balance of $1.1 billion. To take advantage of higher interest rates compared to bank savings, we purchased $1.4 billion of short-term investments and fixed term deposits during the quarter. Inclusive of short-term investments and fixed term deposit, we had adequate liquidity with a balance of quick assets in the amount of $2.5 billion. On the operational front, during the second quarter, we started initial production at our 100,000 metric tons Phase 5B polysilicon project in Inner Mongolia as planned, which contributed approximately 12% of our total production volume. Overall, the total production volume of our two polysilicon facilities for the quarter was 64,961 metric tons, exceeding our expectations and representing an increase of 2,683 metric tons compared to our production volume for the previous quarter. Through continued investments in R&D and dedication to purity improvements at both facilities, our overall N-type product mix reached 73% during the quarter. Remarkably, even our Phase 5B, which was still in the ramping up stage, had 70% N-type in the product…

Ming Yang

Analyst

Thank you, Mr. Xu and Anita. Hello, everyone. This is Ming Yang, CFO of Daqo New Energy. We appreciate you joining our earnings conference call today. I will now go over the company's second quarter 2024 financial performance. Revenues were $220 million, compared to $415.3 million in the first quarter of 2024 and $637 million in the second quarter of 2023. The decrease in revenue compared to the first quarter of 2024 was primarily due to a decrease in the ASP, as well as decreased sales volume. Gross loss was $159 million, compared to our gross profit of $72 million in the first quarter of 2024 and $259 million in the second quarter of 2023. Gross margin was negative 72%, compared to 17.4% in the first quarter of 2024 and 40.7% in the second quarter of 2023. For the second quarter of 2024, the company recorded $108 million in inventory impairment expenses as the company's inventory's market value falls below book value. The decrease in gross margin compared to the first quarter of 2024 was also due to lower ASP, which was partially mitigated by lower production cost. SG&A expenses were $37.5 million, compared to $38.4 million in the first quarter of 2024 and $43.3 million in the second quarter of 2023. SG&A expenses during the second quarter included $19.6 million in non-cash share-based compensation cost related to the company's share incentive plans compared to $19.6 million in the first quarter of 2024. R&D expenses were $1.8 million, compared to $1.5 million in the first quarter of 2024 and $2.2 million in the second quarter of 2023. R&D expenses vary from period to period and reflect R&D activities that take place during the quarter. Most of our R&D activities has been around increasing our N-type percentage. As a result of…

Operator

Operator

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Phil Shen with ROTH Capital Partners. Please go ahead.

Matt Ingraham

Analyst

Hi, this is Matt Ingraham on for Phil. Thank you for taking our questions. Looking ahead, can you give us a sense of pricing and cost structure beyond this year? Do you think that there could be some recovery in price next year? And how much room -- how much more room do you have to lower the cost structure?

Ming Yang

Analyst

Hello. This is Ming, CFO of Daqo New Energy. Thank you for your question. I think in recent months, particularly in August, we've already seen some pickup and recovery of pricing. As Anita said at the bottom, I guess, in terms of June and July, pricing was below RMB40 per kilogram. And as of now, pricing is in the range of RMB41 to RMB42 per kilogram. So, we saw a range somewhere in between RMB2 to RMB3 per kilogram in terms of price recovery. And this is primarily a result of the industry's production reduction and a slight uptick in demand from customers. So, we do not think the current pricing is sustainable. We do believe that, say, over the rest of the year, we should continue to see likely between RMB2 to, let's say, RMB4 kind of price recovery as production continue to remain at a lower level. And while for next year, we do believe that as demand continue to improve, especially from new markets like Middle East, Latin America, Africa and, again, I think, further market developments in China and Europe, for example, so we do think that pricing should recover to at least production costs or maybe normalize to higher production costs -- higher than production costs. So, we think maybe mid next year is when we will see normalized pricing for polysilicon.

Matt Ingraham

Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Ming Yang

Analyst

And then, quickly following up on your cost structure, sorry, we do think there continue to be opportunity to reduce cost. I think we're seeing very successful cost trends from Inner Mongolia Phase 2 facility. I think you saw approximately 3% reduction of cost from Q2 to Q1. And we do expect that Q3 costs should be flat to slightly lower than Q2. So, we think in the second half, we should -- overall we should see costs somewhere around $6 or even slightly lower than $6. And we think this cost structure should continue through next year.

Matt Ingraham

Analyst

Really appreciate the color there. And then, can you just talk about the channel inventory in the market? Do you expect that to continue to grow near term? And where do you think that peaks?

Ming Yang

Analyst

Okay. Actually, channel inventory has already peaked. So, inventory is actually coming down as of August, and we think this should continue to go down, I think primarily as a result of continued reduction in supply. So, we think it should probably reduce to a much more reasonable level by, say, Q4 or by the end of the year, right? So, unless we see some kind of meaningful price recovery, at least above the industry cash cost, we're very unlikely to see improvements in production.

Matt Ingraham

Analyst

Okay, great. Thank you for the color. I'll pass it on.

Ming Yang

Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Alan Lau with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Alan Lau

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Thanks for taking my question. So, I would like to know about what is the breakdown on the impairment of $108 million, because -- and also the inventory level at the end of 2Q, because it appears that the production volume is higher than sales volume for 20,000 metric tons. So, is 20,000 metric tons a fair assumption on the inventory level by end of 2Q? And if that is the case, an impairment of $108 million seems huge. So, we'd like to know the basis on that.

Ming Yang

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Okay. So, the reality is, the $108 million is a reduction in not just finished goods, but also work-in-process inventory and raw material, which reduces our cost from our production cost, say, around $6.19 per kilogram to, really, the current market pricing, which is below RMB40 per kilogram. And about 60% of that is related to finished goods inventory. Okay. And then, looking at our inventory at the end of the quarter -- give me a minute, let me just quickly look that up. Okay. Approximately 28,000 metric tons, okay? So, we built roughly 20,000 metric ton of inventory, like you said, during the quarter because of the market conditions and the weak demand. Although I think, starting in August, we're starting to see reduction in inventory right now.

Alan Lau

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Thank you. So, if 60% is finished goods, so it's basically around, I guess, $60 million to $70 million of the impairment is related to the impairment on 28,000 tons, right? So that's still like around $2 to $3 per kilogram. So, does this seem huge? Because the production cost -- the spread between the ASP and the production cost appears to be only $1 per kilogram. So, I would like to know did I miss anything from this front.

Ming Yang

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Okay. I think, realistically, if you look at pricing, especially, what it looks -- where we have to reduce our inventory to, like somewhere in the range of, say, RMB37 to RMB38 per kilogram. So, that's what -- let me do a quick math.

Alan Lau

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Okay. So, the ASP is RMB37 or RMB38, but your production cost is only at around RMB40-something. So, if the impairment...

Ming Yang

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Right now, RMB45, right, RMB45 per kilogram...

Alan Lau

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Yeah. So that's around -- yeah, so that's around RMB12. And then -- but if it's 28,000 metric tons, then it's still -- at most, it should be like $300 million maybe. So, since the impairment amount...

Ming Yang

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

[indiscernible]. Well -- and then, there's also raw materials, right? And then, work-in-process inventory, that's also being reduced.

Alan Lau

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

I see. So, maybe, we'll move on to the guidance. So, I have noted that the production volume guidance on 3Q and second half has reduced significantly. So, would like to know, first of all, the thinking behind this, is this to preserve cash? And secondly, what do you see -- like, the utilization rates of your peers, do they also cut their production volume as well?

Ming Yang

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

I would say, yes. So, for most of our peers, I think with the exception of maybe one -- of the main one, I think most have reduced utilization significantly, I think, in light of the current market pricing environment. I think, certainly, the -- I think in the current market condition, I think we have to balance, right, I think in the most economical way in terms of maintaining production while at the same time minimizing cash burn and cash loss. So, we do believe that the current utilization level that we have in -- that we're operating in, in light of pricing remains at below cash cost is the most prudent, I think also the most effective way of minimizing the cash burn on the company.

Alan Lau

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

So, there is effectively around 70% of utilization, right? So, will this impact the production cost or is okay -- is fine?

Ming Yang

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

It's actually, I would say, overall, very minimal impact on production cost. I think only RMB1 to RMB2, because almost 80% of our cost is what we call variable costs, which is electricity and energy and other consumables like steam and graphite and the silicon seed rod.

Alan Lau

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Understood. So, regarding to the fixed deposit of an investment in -- of RMB1.4 billion, so would like to know, how long is those investment and how liquid are those? So, basically, the question is related to buybacks, because I'd like to know the liquidity of the company on that front.

Ming Yang

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Okay. Almost all of the fixed investment and term loans were purchased by the Xinjiang Daqo subsidiary, right? So, in terms of the U.S. ListCo and our cash balance, it's -- virtually all of it is in liquid savings account or money market funds. So -- and then that $1.4 billion is primarily in either six months, I could call it, fixed term deposits with Chinese domestic banks or a higher interest savings product offered by the banks.

Alan Lau

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

I see. So...

Ming Yang

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

And those [maturity age] (ph) is within three months.

Alan Lau

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Oh, within three months, right?

Ming Yang

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Yes.

Alan Lau

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

I see. So, my last question is basically on the buyback. So the company has launched $100 million buyback program. So, I'd like to know if the company is going to continue on the buyback and what is the planning of the buyback. Like, which price do you think it's appropriate or do you think the current stock price is to the level where you think the company will actually accelerate the buyback?

Anita Chu

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Yeah. Thank you, Alan. So, in terms of the share repurchase program, so we are authorized in the amount of $100 million back in July. So, in terms -- so we definitely think that our stock is undervalued, but in terms of the pace, I would say that it will be contingent upon the market conditions and we'll be more opportunistic in terms of the repurchase.

Ming Yang

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

So, we're going to look [opportunities] (ph) to repurchase as many shares as possible for the company to maximize the money that we spend in terms of its effectiveness.

Alan Lau

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

I see. And yes, you have explained, so the cash is already there in the U.S. level. So, probably, it's going to still go ahead in this year, right?

Ming Yang

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

That's our current assumption, yes.

Alan Lau

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

I see. Thank you. So, I'll pass on. Thank you.

Ming Yang

Analyst · Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Great. Thank you, Alan.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Rajiv Chaudhri with Sunsara Capital. Please go ahead.

Rajiv Chaudhri

Analyst · Sunsara Capital. Please go ahead.

Good morning. My question -- the first question relates to the fully-loaded cost that you will incur in Q3 and Q4. If you are reducing the utilization rate, shouldn't that actually increase your fully-loaded costs relative to the fourth -- relative to the third quarter?

Ming Yang

Analyst · Sunsara Capital. Please go ahead.

Well, I think, interesting, that has to do with the cost structure of polysilicon production, right? So, roughly 35% to 40% is electricity and then another 35% is silicon metal. And then, majority of other costs is actually mostly consumables like graphite, with the silicon seed rod and the packaging. So, if I look at what these we would call -- you can call it variable costs, where we don't produce, right? We don't buy silicon metal, we don't buy the consumables. So, these represent actually more than 80% of the cost, okay? The remaining 20%, approximately 13% is depreciation, right, which is the non-cash portion. So, yes, right, depreciation will -- the overall depreciation expense will be aggregated over a smaller volume, but I think the overall impact is not that much, right, because it's not a huge portion of our costs and while -- in terms of -- the rest is labor. Labor, let me see, is roughly 6% of our cost. And then, we're reducing labor cost by between 10% to 20%. We're optimizing our staffing level, for example. So, I think the overall impact is actually not that significant as we maintain production, right, because we're reducing production by what, maybe 30%, 35%, something like that relative to previous levels, yeah.

Rajiv Chaudhri

Analyst · Sunsara Capital. Please go ahead.

A second question is related to the difference between production and sales. So, you will produce 210,000 tons to 215 -- 220,000 tons, but the sales are likely to be higher than that, right? I mean, if you expect inventories to get back to normal by the end of the year, then sales are likely to be, I don't know, 240,000 tons to 250,000 tons? Is that the right way to look -- think about it?

Ming Yang

Analyst · Sunsara Capital. Please go ahead.

I can only say we -- well, that's -- you're talking about the full year, right? But I think, realistically, in the first half, we did build inventory, so volume was less than production. And we expect, the second half, we will see more sales than production, right?

Rajiv Chaudhri

Analyst · Sunsara Capital. Please go ahead.

Right.

Ming Yang

Analyst · Sunsara Capital. Please go ahead.

But, again, it's early, right? It's only August. So, it really depends on how much more sales we can achieve relative to production, yeah.

Rajiv Chaudhri

Analyst · Sunsara Capital. Please go ahead.

I see. But for the year as a whole, you expect sales to be greater than production, right?

Ming Yang

Analyst · Sunsara Capital. Please go ahead.

It's difficult to tell, to be honest. Difficult to tell. It's really up to Q4 performance.

Rajiv Chaudhri

Analyst · Sunsara Capital. Please go ahead.

I see. Okay. And can you give us any specific examples of companies that are of competitors who are actually closing shop as distinct from just reducing their output right now?

Ming Yang

Analyst · Sunsara Capital. Please go ahead.

Well, I think one well-known case that happened recently is a company called Runyang, which I think they have a nameplate of over 100,000 metric tons. And that company was in financial crisis, where they had problems repaying their bank loans. And they have major issues repaying their suppliers and pay interest. So, our understanding is they're being consolidated by Tongwei. And Tongwei is doing due diligence on them right now, yeah. So, I think they have significantly reduced production. And then, we know of two other cases where -- we're not going to say the companies' name, but one new entrant actually built a 50,000 metric ton facility, actually, never even started that facility. That facility remains idle. It's complete and idle. And then, there's another peer competitor, I think they've built -- they've claimed they built approximately 100,000 metric tons to 200,000 metric tons of capacity, but we -- our understanding is, the volume that they're selling to the market is actually fairly trivial. So, those are the cases that we know of right now.

Rajiv Chaudhri

Analyst · Sunsara Capital. Please go ahead.

So, when you look at -- I mean, when you look at the year as a whole, 2024 as a whole, do you think that with the sales that you will do, which will be, let's say, around your total production levels, that you would have gained or lost market share in 2024?

Ming Yang

Analyst · Sunsara Capital. Please go ahead.

I think, at least based on the latest industry production, so even though we reduced utilization, I think we're still maintaining market share. I think based on our current production level we're roughly, say, 15%...

Rajiv Chaudhri

Analyst · Sunsara Capital. Please go ahead.

And...

Ming Yang

Analyst · Sunsara Capital. Please go ahead.

Approximately 15% of the market.

Rajiv Chaudhri

Analyst · Sunsara Capital. Please go ahead.

But your total output would be about 10% higher than last year or, I should say, maybe your total sales will be about 10% higher than last year, right? So, do you think that is roughly the growth rate of the market this year, 10%?

Ming Yang

Analyst · Sunsara Capital. Please go ahead.

Well, I think it really depends on, especially, Q4, because if you look at our production and sales volume in the first half, especially for Q1, it's still relatively healthy. It's really -- Q2, it came down. And then, at this point, we're expecting our Q3 sales volume and shipment to be above Q2. And then, Q4 is looking -- at least for now is looking at a positive trend. So, I would say, if I look at industry statistics, I think it's still expecting roughly 20% kind of improvement.

Rajiv Chaudhri

Analyst · Sunsara Capital. Please go ahead.

Okay.

Ming Yang

Analyst · Sunsara Capital. Please go ahead.

Maybe more than 20%...

Rajiv Chaudhri

Analyst · Sunsara Capital. Please go ahead.

Thank you.

Ming Yang

Analyst · Sunsara Capital. Please go ahead.

Yeah. Okay, thank you.

Rajiv Chaudhri

Analyst · Sunsara Capital. Please go ahead.

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Anita Chu for any closing remarks.

Anita Chu

Analyst

Thank you, everyone, again, for participating in today's conference call. Should you have any further questions, please don't hesitate to contact us. Thank you, and have an awesome day. Goodbye.

Operator

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.