Edward Ryan
Analyst · William Blair
Great. Thanks, Allan. So we're a month into Q4 and the end of our fiscal year. General areas of our business that benefit from end-of-year holiday sales such as e-commerce and truck deliveries will see an uptick in volumes, and other areas such as ocean transportation are at a seasonal low point as the inventories are already in store. Our forecasting and plans remain relatively cautious, given the general malaise in shipment volumes seen in the previous quarters this year, however, we're also mindful of the press reports with initial positive statistics on Black Friday sales volumes. We keep these things in mind as we set our calibration for the quarter. Our business is designed to be predictable and consistent. We believe that stability and reliability are valuable to our customers, employees and our broader stakeholders. To deliver this consistency, we continue to operate from the following principles. Our long-term plan is for our business to grow adjusted EBITDA 10% to 15% annually. We grow through a combination of organic growth and acquisitions. We take a neutral party approach to building and operating solutions on our Global Logistics Network. We don't favor any particular party. We run our business for all supply chain participants, connecting shippers, carriers, logistics service providers and customs authorities. When we overperform, we try to reinvest that overperformance back into our business. We focus on recurring revenues and establish relationships with customers for life, and we thrive on operating a predictable business that allows us to forward visibility to our revenues and investment paybacks. In our Q3 report, we provided a comprehensive description of baseline revenues, baseline calibration and their limitations. As of November 1, 2023, using foreign exchange rates of $0.72 to the Canadian dollar, $1.06 to the euro and $1.21 to the pound, we estimate that our baseline revenues for the fourth quarter of 2024 are approximately $127 million, and our baseline operating expenses are approximately $79 million. We consider this to be our baseline adjusted EBITDA calibration of approximately $48 million for the fourth quarter of 2024 or approximately 38% of our baseline revenues as at November 1, 2023. We continue to expect that we'll operate an adjusted EBITDA operating margin range of 40% to 45%. Our margin can vary in that range, given such things as foreign exchange movements and the impact of acquisitions as we integrate them into our business. We've got lots of exciting things planned for our business. It remains an uncertain broader economic and supply chain environment, but we believe our proven track record of execution, solid capital structure and customer focus will serve us well. Thanks to everyone for joining us on the call today. As always, we're available to talk to you about our business in whatever manner is most convenient for you. And with that, operator, I'll now turn it over to you to manage the Q&A portion of the call. Thank you.