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Diana Shipping Inc. (DSX)

Q1 2009 Earnings Call· Wed, May 6, 2009

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen welcome to the Diana Shipping first quarter 2009 earnings conference call. For today's recorded presentation, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. After the presentation there will be an opportunity to ask questions. (Operator instructions). I will now hand the conference over to Edward Nebb. You may begin.

Edward Nebb

Management

Greetings, everyone. This is Ed Nebb, Investor Relations Advisor for Diana Shipping. I want to welcome you to the Company's 2009 first quarter conference call. The members of the Diana Shipping Management team who are with us today are Mr. Simeon Palios, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Anastassis Margaronis, President; Mr. Andreas Michalopoulos, Chief Financial Officer; Mr. Ioannis Zafirakis, Executive Vice-President and Secretary, and Ms. Maria Dede, Chief Accounting Officer. Before management begins their remarks, let me briefly summarize the Safe Harbor notice which you can see in its entirety in the news release we issued earlier today. Certain statements made during this conference call which are not statements of historical fact are forward-looking statements that are made pursuant to the Safe Harbor provision of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, expectations, projections, intentions, and beliefs as to future events that may not prove to be accurate. For description of the risks, uncertainties, and other factors that may cause future results to differ materially from what is expressed or forecast in the forward-looking statements, please refer to the Company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. And now without further redo let me turn the call over to Mr. Simeon Palios, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Diana Shipping.

Simeon Palios

Management

Thank you, Ed. Good morning and thank you for joining us today. I am pleased to report that Diana Shipping once again delivered a profitable performance despite the challenges and uncertainties of adversely impacted several sectors of the global economy. Throughout the current period we have continued to strive to execute on our cost strategies, managing our fleet for maximum revenue visibility, pursuing relationships with high quality charterers and maintaining our strong balance sheet. Especially in the present phase of the business cycle when worldwide economic conditions remain precarious we believe that at this time the strategies will enable us to produce solid results for shareholders during the months ahead. Now I would like to point out some of the highlights of the 2009 first quarter. Then the members of our senior management team will review our market outlook and discuss the financial results in greater detail. Net income was $34.8 million U.S. with Voyage and time charter revenues of $62.7 million U.S. for the first quarter of 2009. This compare to net income of 53.2 million U.S. and voyage and time charterer revenues of $17.9 million U.S. for the same period a year ago. While prevailing times charterers have declined as compare with the 2008 period we are pleased that Diana has continued to obtain profitable charterers from top quality charterers. Since the start of this year we have chartered (inaudible) Coronis, Calipso and Clio. With respect to the charterers we have extended our relationship with Cargill, and further diversified with Augustea Atlantica and TPC Korea. Our revenue visibilities were strong only two of our vessels have charterers expiring in late 2009 while the rest are charter through 2010 and beyond. By following the strategy of balancing long year and shorter term charterers we have achieved an average daily…

Anastassis Margaronis

Management

Thank you, Simeon, and warm welcome to all who have joined us in this conference call. During the first quarter of this year, the turbulence of the world economy has continued to exert a profound influence on the dry bulk shipping trade market. However, during the first three months of 2009, the dry bulk market manage to rebound more than anticipated by more shipping analysts with average spot rate more than doubling for some types of ships. The Baltic dry index has started the first quarter of 2009 at 773 and yesterday closed at 1897. The equivalent figures for the Baltic Cape Index were 1361 and 2528 respectively, while for the Baltic Panamax Index were 514 and 1702. There is no doubt that the future course of the trade market will be closely linked to the worldwide economic growth and corresponding demand for steel. According to the IMS, (inaudible) was expected to contract by 1.3% this year and expand by an anemic 1.9% during 2010. This latest forecast comes as Japan reported its first quarterly trade deficit in nearly three decades with the year to March 2009, highlighting the global downturn effect that on the world's second largest economy which remains heavily reliant on exports. As regards the steel production, it came to just 92 million tons in March, a 24% drop year-on-year. In the first quarter of 2009, world’s steel production was 246 million tons, a 23% fall compared to the first quarter of 2008. Only China showed a slight increase in steel production during the first quarter of 2009 of 1.4% year-on-year at 127 million tons. Contrary to a number of reports, some raw materials for the production of steel are not actually costing much less these days than say, a year ago. For instance, thanks to 40%…

Andreas Michalopoulos

Management

Thank you. Thank you, Stassis, and good morning. I think we'll be discussing the growth of the Diana's operational results for the first quarter ended March 31st 2009. Net income for the first quarter amounted to $34.8 million and the EPS of Diana Shipping amounted to $0.47. Voyage and time charter revenues decreased by $52.7 million, compared to $78.9 million in 2008. The decrease is attributable to reduced average hire rate which was partially offset by the increase in the number of available days after the acquisition in Norfolk in February 2008. Ownership days were 1,710 for the first quarter of 2009, compared to 1688 in the same period of 2008. Fleet utilization was 98% in the first quarter of 2009 and 99.8% in 2008. The daily time charter equivalent rate for the first quarter of 2009 was $34,898, compared to $45,191 for 2008. Voyage expenses were $3.2 million for the quarter. Operating expenses amounted to $9.4 million, an increase by 2%. The increase is attributable to the 1% increase in ownership days resulting from the delivery of the Norfolk, an increase in crew costs and repairs, which was partially offset by decrease insurance and other costs. Daily operating expenses were $5,521 for the first quarter of 2009, compared to $5,458 in 2008, representing an increase of 1%. Depreciation and amortization of deferred charges amounted to $10.8 million for the first quarter of 2009. General and administrative expenses increased by $0.5 million or 14% for the first quarter of 2009 to $4.1 million, compared to $3.6 million in 2008. The increase was mainly attributable to compensation costs on restricted stocks and legal fee. Interest and finance costs decreased to $0.8 million for the quarter, compared to $1.5 million in 2008. The decrease was attributable to reduced average interest rates during the first quarter of 2009 compared to 2008. Thank you for your attention. We would be pleased to respond to your questions. And I will turn the call to the operator, who will instruct you as to the procedure for asking questions.

Operator

Operator

Thank you sir. (Operator instructions). Your first question comes from Jon Chappell with JP Morgan. Jon Chappell – JP Morgan: Thank you. Good afternoon, everybody. Stassis, you made some comments at the end of your remarks about distressed asset opportunities and Diana's position to take advantage of that. Simeon or Stassi, could you maybe talk about where you are seeing asset values right now and then the returns that you are seeing based on the current charter market. Really when is Diana expecting to be willing to find some good opportunities, are we talking in the next month or maybe through the summer or the fall?

Simeon Palios

Management

Well, Jon, you realized that the three months ago when we talk again we were three months behind of course we're today. We are closely watching the mass market I think that the prices are somehow come down as we are expecting and we are watching possible yards that they are going to (inaudible) a number of ships to sell very, very closely. I think we are three months later than what we were three months ago. Jon Chappell – JP Morgan: Do you think the pessimism has reached its peak yet? It seems like a lot of the macroeconomic numbers have shown some stabilization and obviously the equities have started to move, but do you think there is more pain as far as ship owners perspective that allow those opportunities to come later this year?

Simeon Palios

Management

I think that the yards will be more willing to discuss now than they were before, because their all their book comes to an end. And I think that you have to understand that since last September, there is no orders in the books. So September is eight months ago, and they are coming to an end, the orders.

Anastassis Margaronis

Management

Jonathan, as far as pessimism goes, we try to monitor that closely and our feeling is that we are not clear just yet. There is first it has to be a realization which we think will be coming over the next few weeks or months. That the fortunes of the tri-bulk shipping market have become decoupled from the fortunes of the equity markets and also of the future growth. In shipping, we have Aronis [ph] used to cope with which I try to summarize earlier on from the supply side and they are not completely dependent but they won't go away purely because the equity markets might recover and world economies might start showing some sort of growth. And that is what we are monitoring closely, this decoupling. When it comes then we might have to renew the pessimism in the shipping industry which will not be matched by pessimism in the equity markets. Jon Chappell – JP Morgan: Right. I agree with that. And then you have a little over $100 million in cash on your balance sheet, that get probably at today's prices if we knew today's prices were help you buy a couple of assets. But if the rate opportunity came along to really make a transformational acquisition, have you been in discussions with your banks, Stassis, laid out a scenario where the banks really are lending right now. But Diana's capabilities to add leverage for the rate acquisition?

Simeon Palios

Management

Well, I see we're in a fantastic position to get further leverage from the banks. And although there are very few banks lending money I think that we can manage to get some loans from existing banks. There is no problem there. Jon Chappell – JP Morgan: What type of leverage would you go to? Considering this might be the trough of the market would you go up to 50%, 60% or would you be more comfortable on maybe 30% to 40% range?

Simeon Palios

Management

Well, 50-50 I think is okay, because (inaudible) much, much less now.

Anastassis Margaronis

Management

Jon, if I may add, don't forget that we have said that our intention is to stagger our outpurchases and therefore slowly leverage our company. We don't intend to have at least at the moment this kind of transformational type deal that you were mentioning earlier. But more to sort of stagger our purchases because we know that (inaudible) into bottom the same way you can have it. Now, the ideal for us would be to arrive to 70% or even 80% leverage at the time where the cycle really shows clear signs of recovery. That would be the ideal. And the last thing I want to mention is that as we said before few banks are lending and those banks are already selectively and we are fortunately not because of the strategies that we have had in our balance sheet and the management of the company to have the banks coming to try to lend to us versus probably other players. Jon Chappell – JP Morgan: Okay. That's very helpful, Simeon, Stassi and the rest.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Justin Yagerman with Wachovia Capital Markets. Justin Yagerman – Wachovia Capital Markets: Hey, gentlemen, good morning. Wanted to follow-up on a couple of the questions that Jon asked. I mean Stassi, the scrapping and slippage numbers that you went through in your prepared remarks were fairly low I guess relative to maybe some of the expectations that are out there in the market. Is that what colors you guys where you right now, I mean we have seen Panamax transactions at about $30 million level that's 60% plus of a fee. I guess two parts to the question. Do you believe those numbers are what are actually going to take place and if so, I mean, how much more asset downside would that imply in your opinion?

Anastassis Margaronis

Management

Well, to be honestly, Justin, I think it would be further out we go in time, the less reliable the numbers and the forecast. For 2009, which for us is the pivotal year, by the end of which we will have received very clear signs as to where we are going on the supply of new building ships. We are going to see numbers which is very close to what I just tried to summarize. And therefore, what we're going to see is something like 10% increase, net increase in the dry bulk trading fleet. Now, if that increase does not negatively affect the freight market then we have to look again at our assumptions not only on the supply, but also on demand. And to reassess the whole situation as regards to the balance when it will come. So all I can say is that we put quite a lot of confidence on the numbers I described for 2009. For 2010, 2011, of course, less confident. But don't forget that as the world economy improves and the credit markets loosen up, the problems I described above the financing of the new buildings are going to be affected as well. Therefore, the 2010 and the 2011 deliveries become even more uncertain because we don't know how credit will affect the rate of cancellations of these vessels. So all I can say is that 2009 we stand by these numbers, 2010, we put a small question mark and 2011, slightly larger one. Justin Yagerman – Wachovia Capital Markets: That makes sense. So I guess by the end of this year that's when you would be looking and trying to reassess and reevaluate do you think will have better order book data at that point?

Anastassis Margaronis

Management

Yes, I think so.

Simeon Palios

Management

Well, I think you have a lot of buttons to press here. First of all, you have the appreciation which is a key issue. And you can do that for certain ships when the time comes. But in the interim, you have the possibility and you have the luxury to have charterers who are demanding from us certain types of ships. So, that is not going to be 100% appreciation, but it could be an intermediary between the appreciation of 100% and a banking deal. So we can play in different scenarios here. The key thing is to have a strong balance sheet to do your eventual purchases. And we are in a fantastic position to be in such a good position to do our program in a very, very efficient manner. Justin Yagerman – Wachovia Capital Markets: That's helpful. Thanks. Andreas, on the utilization, not a big drop-off obviously, but would that just the dry docking of the Clio and then putting that on to a spot charterer. What was going on with utilization in the quarter?

Andreas Michalopoulos

Management

The utilization of 98% basically, the difference is 34 days in total and the big difference comes from 34 in total, 24 days are due to the Calipso and to the Atlas charterer, that what money pay so that was our pie and that's the main difference there. Justin Yagerman – Wachovia Capital Markets: Got it. And can you remind us of what dry docking you guys have going forward?

Simeon Palios

Management

Yes, of course. We have the dry docks to perform, the one who is the Protefs and the other is the Erato. The Protefs is in queue for dry dock in August 2009 and the Erato the same month in the same year. Those are the two for 2009. The two ships for 2009. Justin Yagerman – Wachovia Capital Markets: Can you update us on the approximate cost for us?

Simeon Palios

Management

Well, the cost, because the vessels are new, we have no changes of plates therefore; they are going to be straightforward banking and clearing the bottom. That's the main thing which is not going to be more than $200,000.

Andreas Michalopoulos

Management

Together with that I must say that we have also two intermediate surveys that are two are due, one is Sideris GS at the end of the year and the other one is Semirio at the end of the year. That's going to be intermediate surveys. Justin Yagerman – Wachovia Capital Markets: Okay. That's all I got right now. Thanks.

Simeon Palios

Management

Thank you, Justin.

Operator

Operator

Next question comes from Greg Lewis with Credit Suisse. Greg Lewis – Credit Suisse: Thank you, and good afternoon.

Simeon Palios

Management

Good afternoon, Greg.

Andreas Michalopoulos

Management

Hi. Greg Lewis – Credit Suisse: My first question is regarding the order book. Clearly, there have been any orders, but from a historical perspective that we would have sort of look back by 7 years, 8 years ago, what was the typical turnaround time for order in a ship taking delivery of a ship?

Simeon Palios

Management

How many years ago? Greg Lewis – Credit Suisse: Say, like in 2002, 2003.

Simeon Palios

Management

Well, in 2003, for a Panamax, you will consider two years. Today, it’s approximately depending from the yard about maximum of eight months for a Panamax. Greg Lewis – Credit Suisse: I'm sorry; still I could order Panamax today and received it in May month. Really what I'm trying to get at is the order book sort of ballooned up to three year waiting time and we haven't seen any orders in a while, but the shipped owners actually have anywhere from say, six months to 10 months, 12 months just the sort of put the order book back in the sale historical type of delivery time. Do you sort of agree with that statement?

Simeon Palios

Management

Well, assuming that there is space in the yard today, you can order a vessel today and get it in eight months. But if there is no space in the yard then you have to add it when the yard will have space. Greg Lewis – Credit Suisse: Okay, great. And then just one follow-up. It looks like SG&A spiked up a little bit in Q1 versus Q4. When we look at SG&A going out to the rest of the year where should we sort of expect that number to be?

Andreas Michalopoulos

Management

I think you should expect at a same level of the first quarter. It’s more realistic and it's due to the compensation costs on restricted stocks which should be the same throughout the quarters from now on. Greg Lewis – Credit Suisse: Okay, thank you very much. Congratulations on a good quarter.

Andreas Michalopoulos

Management

Thank you.

Simeon Palios

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Natasha Boyden with Cantor Fitzgerald Natasha Boyden – Cantor Fitzgerald: Hi, thanks, everybody. Good morning, gentlemen.

Andreas Michalopoulos

Management

Hi, Natasha. Natasha Boyden – Cantor Fitzgerald: I think you said during your remarks you had several ships up for recharter this year, is that correct?

Simeon Palios

Management

The three vessels, even we get to the early as possible or the delivery date. Natasha Boyden – Cantor Fitzgerald: Okay. So given what the current market is right now, are you going to continue to focus on the one-year charters that you have been doing this year up to the stage?

Ioannis Zafirakis

Analyst

This is Ioannis Zafirakis. Our chartering strategy has always been to have a portfolio of 12/6 [ph] meaning that we want to play there is delivery dates from the charter as such a manner that we do not have a lot of vessels to pick up the same time but at the same time to have a vessel to fix every now and then. So basically what you should expect from us is to position rather than anything else, that delivery date of the next charter that we're going to do in such a manner that it is well-positioned in our portfolio. When we charter a vessel for a year or two years or six months for that matter, it doesn't mean necessarily that we have taken a view about the market. Natasha Boyden – Cantor Fitzgerald: Okay. So the last year that you have done that I think have been about a year is not necessarily your view?

Ioannis Zafirakis

Analyst

Yes. We have done two years as well. Natasha Boyden – Cantor Fitzgerald: That's fair. So are you sort of willing to say given your outlook on the time charter rates for this year and next?

Simeon Palios

Management

Well, today, Panamax could be chartered at $22,000 if the vessel is free in continent, for four months to six months which is a good rate and perhaps it takes you away from the bulk of ships we have coming free next year. So this is the consideration. But I would say, Ioannnis said, you have to watch when the vessels are coming free, because we want to be always there to have free ships at any time. Natasha Boyden – Cantor Fitzgerald: Right. Fair enough. Okay. That's helpful. Thank you. And then just looking at I think your best of operating expense line, it actually came down I think about $500,000 this quarter versus the last three quarters. Can you just give us a reasoning behind that and then what we can expect going forward?

Anastassis Margaronis

Management

I think you can expect around the same level of operating expenses again going forward. The main reasons it came down where crew costs this quarter came down a little bit. And also lubricants that came down a little bit, but crew costs will be probably offset next quarter and more specifically the third quarter. As you know the third quarter they are in negotiations and therefore these are retroactive throughout the year. So usually you get a small spike on the third quarter. So but you should expect we have this quarter $5,521 per day per vessel, you can expect next quarter we have budgeted around $5,850 per day per vessel on average, so I think if you take that as a ballpark-ish you shouldn't see any major changes there. Natasha Boyden – Cantor Fitzgerald: And then just lastly, in terms of trade credit with the bank, obviously, that was the huge issue last quarter, and everybody was talking about sort of top line issue. What are you seeing now in terms of where the banks are and what they are willing to do in terms of trade credit? Have they loosened up a bit or are they still very much unwilling to help or open up?

Anastassis Margaronis

Management

As pointed out earlier by Andreas in a related question, there are certain banks that are there to do business, with the clients which they have kind of an hate list of theirs, and they consider good credits, the price of course has gone up. There is no doubt that we are not going to be able to convince any bank to offer us the terms that we have for example, on our revolving credit facility. And therefore, we have to adjust to new pricing of loans for the ships that we will be acquiring and financing with the net roughly 50% as we indicated earlier. But we have a number of banks that are there to finance acquisitions and we have got of course the remainder and the balance of our revolving credit facility to utilize. So in other words, yes, there are banks, they are there, not as many as they used to be. And the cost has gone up, but the credit is there. Natasha Boyden – Cantor Fitzgerald: Okay. Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Urs Dur with Lazard Capital Markets. Urs Dur – Lazard Capital Markets: Good afternoon, everybody. My questions have been thoroughly answered. Thank you.

Simeon Palios

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

(Operator instructions). There are no further questions at this time.

Simeon Palios

Management

Thank you again for your interest in and support of Diana Shipping. We believe that our profitable results and formidable balance sheet are distinguishing qualities of our company at the time of economic uncertainty and that we will continue to be well-positioned to take advantage of opportunities that they may arise in this volatile market. We look forward to speaking with you next quarter. Thank you.

Operator

Operator