Richard Muncrief
Analyst · Goldman Sachs
Yes, Neil, great question. I guess for us, we think that just fundamentally, OPEC, we'll see what they come up with. But they probably may handicap a little bit of the concerns around a possible recession that could impact demand some -- somewhat. I don't think it's going to be very, very large. If they were to bump there, let's say, Saudi specifically, if they were to bump their productivity. I don't think it would be a large bump because I think in the back of their minds, they're looking at a lot of data like we all are, right? And so they're going to be -- I think they're going to be very measured. The rest of OPEC, I just think, quite honestly, I think are going to be very, very challenged to getting more close their quotas. That's been, I think, well represented. So for us, when we think about maybe a slight uptick in Saudi's production, maybe even the UAE, but I don't think it's going to be that strong. You see continued discipline. You do see some growth here in the lower 48, but it's still a disciplined approach. China is -- there's a point in time when you will see that demand, I believe, increase as they started reopening. In our mind, demand is going to be strong. And I think demand is going to -- net-net is you're going to start -- you'll still see some demand growth until we see prices -- I think WTI north of 120. That's kind of what we thought the first time and it pulled back and it could have been just circumstantial. But -- so we'll see. But I think for us, we're very constructive on the commodity price environment. That's both on the crude side and then on the gas side, too. I've been a little surprised that gas didn't pull back a little harder and stay, but it's -- I think we've talked about it with our team, just fundamentally, you do not want to be short at gas in this world. And I think that at that point-driven, whether it's whether it's a Uri storm or type storm or some of the geopolitical things, you just do not want to be short at gas. That's an uncomfortable place for governments and utilities and the greater society. So we're very, very constructive. I think for us, we just -- Neil, we're very pleased with our execution. We're staying on top of the supply chain the best we can, and it's, I think, going well. We've made some really strong moves on -- in the marketing front, both on the gas side and the crude side to ensure, in my mind, very consistent reliable flows to the market. So I think we've done what we need to do. And I guess the takeaway for us is that we still are constructive on demand, both on the oil and gas side.