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GrafTech International Ltd. (EAF)

Q2 2025 Earnings Call· Fri, Jul 25, 2025

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to GrafTech Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the conference call over to Mike Dillon, Vice President, Investor Relations and Treasurer. Please go ahead.

Michael Dillon

Analyst

Thank you, Jenny. Good morning, and welcome to GrafTech International's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. On with me today are Tim Flanagan, Chief Executive Officer; Jeremy Halford, Chief Operating Officer; and Rory O’Donnell, Chief Financial Officer. Tim will begin with opening comments. Jeremy will then discuss safety, the commercial environment, sales and operational matters. Rory will review our quarterly results and other financial details, and Tim will close with additional comments on our outlook. We will then open the call to questions. Turning to our next slide. As a reminder, some of the matters discussed on this call may include forward-looking statements regarding, among other things, performance, trends and strategies. These statements are based on current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated by forward-looking statements are shown here. We will also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures, and these slides include the relevant non-GAAP reconciliations. You can find these slides in the Investor Relations section of our website at www.graftech.com. A replay of the call will also be available on our website. I'll now turn the call over to Tim.

Timothy Flanagan

Analyst

Good morning, and thank you for joining GrafTech's second quarter's earning call. Today, we'll provide an overview of our second quarter performance, share key operational and commercial updates and discuss our outlook for the remainder of 2025 and beyond. But before we dive into the details, I'd like to begin with an update on the proactive steps we are taking as it relates to the evolving industry dynamics and heightened macro uncertainty. We have outlined a series of strategic initiatives to meet our key commercial, operational and financial objectives. Our objectives are clear and include increasing sales volume and regaining market share, improving our average pricing through a combination of price increases and shifting the geographic mix of our volume to higher-priced regions, reducing costs and working capital requirements and ultimately to improve our liquidity and strengthen our overall financial foundation. Our initiatives have been designed to strengthen our competitive positioning, enhance our resiliency and ensure we remain well positioned to generate strong returns as the market recovers. The team is delivering on all fronts, and the results have been impressive. Allow me to highlight a few examples from our second quarter performance. We grew sales volume by 12% year-over-year in the second quarter and 16% sequentially compared to the first quarter. In fact, our sales volume in the second quarter was our highest level since the third quarter of 2022. Likewise, our capacity utilization rate increased to 65%, also the highest level in nearly 3 years. We achieved a 13% year-over-year decline in our cash COGS per metric ton, and we expect to exceed our initial cost reduction guidance for the full year. We generated positive EBITDA for the first time since the second quarter of last year. And lastly, our cash flow performance and quarter end liquidity position…

Jeremy Halford

Analyst

Thank you, Tim, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin with an update on safety, which is one of our core values and a non-negotiable priority across our organization. We are pleased to have maintained strong momentum in this area, putting us on track for our best safety performance ever. This positive trend is a direct result of our team's vigilance, accountability and shared commitment to a culture of safety. As we move through the rest of the year, sustaining and building on this momentum will remain a key focus. While we're proud to be among the top safety performers in the broader manufacturing industry, we are not satisfied. Our ultimate goal is 0 injuries, and we will continue working relentlessly toward that standard every single day. Let me now turn to the next slide to discuss the commercial environment. On a global basis, steel production outside of China was approximately 210 million tons in the second quarter of 2025, which was down 1% compared to the second quarter of last year. This resulted in a global utilization rate for the second quarter of approximately 67%. Looking at some of our key commercial regions using data published by World Steel Association earlier this week. For North America, steel production was down 1% year-to-date compared to the prior year. Specific to the U.S., World Steel reported that production grew 1% year-to-date through June. For the balance of the year, reflecting the impact of U.S. tariffs on the level of steel imports, we expect further growth in this region on a full year basis. In the EU, steel output decreased 3% year-to-date compared to the same period in 2024 and remains well below historical levels of steel production and utilization for that region. With that background, let's turn to the next slide for…

Timothy Flanagan

Analyst

Thanks, Rory. To summarize our comments, we've laid out a clear, disciplined plan to navigate the near-term industry headwinds, and we're executing against that plan. Our objectives are to increase sales volume, regain market share, increase our average price, reduce costs, lower our working capital and strengthen our financial foundation. We are making meaningful progress across all of these areas. Our recent achievements reflect our unwavering focus on the factors within our control, allowing us to preserve flexibility and remain well positioned to capitalize on a future market recovery. To this last point, we remain bullish on the structural tailwinds that will support the ongoing shift towards electric arc furnace steelmaking. Globally, based on any data -- based on data recently published by the World Steel Association, the EAF method of steelmaking further increased its market share this past year, accounting for 51% of steel production outside of China in 2024. This is a continuation of the steady share growth that the EAF industry has experienced for a number of years. And driven by decarbonization efforts, we expect this trend to continue. In the U.S., which produces approximately 80 million tons of steel annually, over 20 million tons of new EAF capacity has either recently come online or is planned for the coming year, with further announcements expected as we move ahead. Given our strong commercial momentum in the U.S. and our focus on meeting the evolving needs of our customers, we are well positioned to capitalize on this demand growth. In the EU, as Jeremy noted, steel production remains below historical levels. However, we continue to see signs that point towards potential recovery in the near to medium term. As we've spoken to previously, these include actions being taken by the EU Commission to create a policy backdrop that…

Operator

Operator

And our first question is from Bennett Moore from JPMorgan.

Bennett Moore

Analyst

It's nice to see the continued share gains in the U.S. Does this still stand at around 50% for the company's overall exposure? And is there any room to gain further share this year potentially from Indian suppliers? Or is this more of a 2026 contract opportunity?

Timothy Flanagan

Analyst

Yes, Bennett. So, I would say U.S. or the Americas as a whole represent a little bit more than 50% of our overall revenue. And certainly, as we continue to look to grow our share, which is up 31% year-over-year in the U.S., that will continue to drive that percentage higher as we move out forward. I think as we look at the back half of the year, I think we'd expect demand in the U.S. to remain robust given the tariff landscape and those 232 steel tariffs that are already in place. How it impacts the supply side on electrodes is still yet to be seen as the reciprocal tariffs and all of those kind of work through the system and continue to evolve. But net-net, I think we feel very good about our position, both with what we've done thus far and also how we think about the value proposition and what we offer our customers as we look forward. So, look forward to continued growth in this market.

Bennett Moore

Analyst

Great. And then my quick second one here relates to the Chinese antidumping duties. Do you feel this is potential to lift local needle coke prices and ultimately cost support for U.S. pricing? Or is this kind of a further dated opportunity just given how immature the Western supply chain still is?

Timothy Flanagan

Analyst

Yes. I mean I'll start, and I'll let Jeremy chime in as well. But I think the way you asked the question kind of answered it in some respects, right? There isn't any anode production of material note within the United States right now. But I think the backdrop of the previous ITC ruling and now the most recent Department of Commerce ruling on the 93.5% really sets a foundation that will allow for more confidence in moving forward with these projects and the development of the supply chains in the West, which, again, I think we feel good about where we sit in terms of a raw material supplier and our technical capabilities, both on the raw materials, but the graphitization as well, which is an important kind of first step to get the supply chains established. So, I think it will support medium to long-term, but it's not an immediate impact to pricing in the short run. Jeremy, anything you want to add?

Jeremy Halford

Analyst

Yes. No, I think you hit the key points there, Tim. The only other thing that I would note is that while there is a variety of announced projects that we hope come online for additional anode production domestically, there's been no announced new projects for needle coke other than, of course, our permitted expansion at our Seadrift facility. And so we do think that this will lead to an eventually -- an eventual tightening up of that market, but that's still quarters into the future, as Tim mentioned.

Operator

Operator

And your next question is from Arun Viswanathan from RBC Capital Markets.

Arun Viswanathan

Analyst

Congrats on the EBITDA improvement and the cost reductions as well. So, I guess maybe the first question would just be on pricing and the pricing environment. It looks like there was a tick up in your production and volumes. So -- and the utilization rate may be slightly better as well in the U.S., especially. So, would you say that overall kind of pricing expectations have bottomed and maybe kind of very, very small room for improvement? Or how would you kind of characterize the pricing environment as you look into, say, the next 6 months or so for electrodes?

Timothy Flanagan

Analyst

Yes and appreciate that, and thanks for the comments. Listen, the pricing environment remains very competitive, right? We've talked about the oversupply, especially coming out of China, which has put pressure on the rest of the world and the global demand environment with some puts and takes in certain regions outperforming other, but overall, global demand is pretty flat. I think though, despite this, we are growing our volume, and we did grow our ASP by 8% over the fourth quarter last year. So I think we are starting to see price stability globally, but it's still not at a level where we think it's sustainable for the long term, right? So whether it's our actions to change our mix and focus our energies on those markets that again will compensate us for the value we provide in our healthier production markets as a whole or if it's through the continued pressure of raising our prices and driving higher prices and getting compensated again for the services and the value provided to our customers, we're going to keep pushing the envelope to drive prices higher. It's a challenging market, but we're starting to see some success. We've seen some flattening out of the pricing curves, which throughout all of 2024 were downward sloping. So, we hope that we've hit bottom and we'll now start to see some recovery in the back half of this year, but then more importantly, as we get into 2026.

Arun Viswanathan

Analyst

Okay. And could you also offer any thoughts on needle coke? There was a lot of oil-based volatility in the quarter, especially from a geopolitical standpoint. But does that affect needle coke? And then what is kind of the outlook? We've had somewhat slightly good EV demand in China, but not necessarily that great outside of China. And so I'm not sure if that's been a drag on needle coke supply-demand? Or how would you characterize the needle coke supply-demand and pricing outlook as well?

Timothy Flanagan

Analyst

Yes. So, thanks for that, Arun. Really, we're seeing continued flatness in the needle coke market. Pricing remains pretty consistent with where it has been for the last several quarters. And as we look forward, we're not seeing a large catalyst in the near-term as we get -- as we look out a little bit further and start to see some of these catalysts, particularly some of the Western supply chain developments come online, we think that, that should start driving some improvements. But as of right now, things are still pretty flat with where they've been.

Jeremy Halford

Analyst

Yes, Arun, I would just add, if we go back to prior to the Trump administration, you had a lot of support, EV mandates and such. Now you're seeing it more on standing up the EV industry through trade and tariff actions and even more so as you think about the recently announced deal with MP Materials from the Department of Defense, right, where you've seen a creative and very transformational public-private partnership that really is going through kind of the government or Washington's efforts to stand up domestic production and onshoring kind of the production of these critical minerals. So, like those were the things that I think we'll see start to drive needle coke pricing and the demand in the West, which will ultimately help us beyond just the growth of EAF consumption of electrodes as we look out going forward. So, all in all, I think those are 2 really positive developments that we're seeing in the market right now as it relates to needle coke.

Arun Viswanathan

Analyst

Okay. So given that you expect a flattish needle coke environment, you are driving your own cost lower, you were able to accomplish positive EBITDA this quarter. Do you expect that positive EBITDA trajectory to continue and you see some sequential improvement as you get into Q3? And then maybe it falls off just seasonally a little bit in Q4. And then next year, you continue to expect some modest continued improvement in EBITDA. Have you kind of bottomed and you're kind of heading now towards improved results each period? Or where are you kind of in your evolution here? Rory O’Donnell: Sure, Arun. So as you saw in our release, our cash cost for the first half of the year was about $3,700. We revised our guidance for a full year cash cost of about $3,950. So you're right, you'll see some cost uptick in the second half of the year, which is driven by a couple of things. It's driven by fixed cost leverage we lose in the second half because of some of our summer shutdowns. It's driven by some of the higher cost of inputs like labor and energy in the second half of the year. And it's also driven by kind of the back half being loaded up with our view on tariffs currently. We're also not getting as much of a benefit from our LCM utilization, LCM reserve utilization as we had previously. So that's a little bit of a headwind. But all in, I think you can expect that the full year, if you bake all that together, we'll probably be at or slightly above a breakeven type EBITDA number. As far as where we go, in years ahead. As you know, a lot of our negotiations are coming up in the fourth quarter. So, we're looking forward to that. I think we've proven our value beyond just the electrode, but also from a CTS perspective and technical service perspective. So, we're looking forward to that. And as that develops, we'll give more views as to how we see the upcoming year.

Timothy Flanagan

Analyst

Arun, I would just, sorry, I was just going to add. I mean, I think what Rory has outlined is 100% accurate in the sense that next 6 months are what they are. This is all about us stacking quarter-after-quarter of improved performance. And the team has been doing that now for a number of quarters in a row. It's not always going to be a straight line up and to the right, but we think we've started to develop the momentum. We're seeing stickiness in our cost reduction efforts. The commercial efforts, again, are paying dividends. And we think as we head into '26, we're happy with the momentum we're creating.

Operator

Operator

And your next question is from Alex Hacking from Citi Research.

Alexander Hacking

Analyst

I just wanted to follow-up on the potential opportunity in anode materials. I feel like we've been -- or you've been talking about this for many years, right, probably at least 5 years and nothing's really happened so far, like nothing has been announced. How would you categorize the state of discussions at the moment? Are they active? Because we've obviously seen others move forward, right? T66 has got together with NOVONIX and they got some money from the DOE. So, I'm just curious, like where do things stand? And yes, so where do things stand?

Timothy Flanagan

Analyst

Yes. Thanks, Alex. Listen, we have been talking about the anode opportunity for a while. And we've also been consistent in saying this isn't something that we necessarily will do on our own or have the balance sheet to go alone and have outlined a number of areas and ways that we think we can participate in this market and think those still exist, whether it be a raw material supplier, whether it be a graphitization supplier to the market given the capacity that we have. But I think as we've also gone through this last, call it, 3 or 4 years, we've also continued to develop our capabilities to kind of go soup to nuts on the production of anodes and think we have opportunities. So, I think the change potentially that's coming and the way I would think about it is what I mentioned before with what we just saw last week with MP Materials, right? Again, fairly transformative public-private partnership, kind of a very creative use of federal dollars from the Department of Defense to unlock value. And also, I mean, they're generating returns for taxpayers. So they're kind of going about it in different ways where they're not just handing out money to whoever has the best application, but they're really looking for those that are well positioned to be cornerstones in the industry. And again, I think as GrafTech, our existing capabilities, the fact that we're vertically integrated could potentially position us to be an attractive partner with the Department of Defense. So, we are continuing our efforts. We're not going to slow down. We'll continue to probe and look for all [Technical Difficulty]. I think this is a bit of a game changer from a sense of the government is putting real dollars behind standing up businesses in an industry versus trying to pull demand through tax incentives and such like that. So, I think that's where you start to see this change.

Alexander Hacking

Analyst

Tim, like not to put you on the spot, I'm not sure what you could say. But based on those comments, I would interpret that to mean that you are in active discussions with the government over potential partnership type opportunities. Would that be fair?

Timothy Flanagan

Analyst

Yes, Alex, I'm not going to comment other than saying we are -- we do think we're well positioned. We welcome the opportunity to continue to advocate on all fronts, whether it's for funding opportunities, whether for its trade protections, whether it's for our position with our customers to improve our position. We're -- the MP Materials deal was just announced last week, and this is all very new and very recent to the market. So, we'll continue to explore it as we see appropriate.

Operator

Operator

[Technical Difficulty]

Timothy Flanagan

Analyst

[Technical Difficulty] at the end of the first quarter, you saw a transaction to move one of the plants to a financial fund or a strategic fund or whatever. We'll see how that plays out in terms of what their intentions are to do that plant. I don't think necessarily that capacity has gone away in its entirety. But I think all of the European capacity is running at fairly low utilization rates, which is why I think we're happy that we've increased ours to 65% and think we're starting to build some momentum there.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I will now hand the call back over to Tim Flanagan, CEO and President, for the closing remarks.

Timothy Flanagan

Analyst

Thank you, Jenny. I'd like to thank everyone on this call for your interest in GrafTech. We look forward to speaking with you again next quarter. Have a great day.