Earnings Labs

Ellington Credit Company (EARN)

Q1 2015 Earnings Call· Wed, May 6, 2015

$4.76

+0.32%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT First Quarter 2015 Financial Results Conference Call. Today’s call is being recorded. At this time all participants have been placed in a listen-only mode and the floor will be open for your questions following the presentation. [Operator Instructions]. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to Lindsay Tragler, Vice President of Investor Relations. You may begin.

Lindsay Tragler

Analyst

Thank you. Before we start I would like to remind everyone that certain statements made during this conference call may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements are not historical in nature. As described under item 1A of our annual report on Form 10-K filed on March 21, 2014, forward-looking statements are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties that could cause the company’s actual results to differ from its beliefs, expectations, estimates, and projections. Consequently, you should not rely on these forward-looking statements as predictions of future events. Statements made during this conference call are made as of the date of this call and the company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. I have with me today on the call Larry Penn, our Chief Executive Officer; Mark Tecotzky, our Co-Chief Investment Officer; and Lisa Mumford, our Chief Financial Officer. With that, I will now turn the call over to Larry.

Laurence Penn

Analyst

Thanks Lindsay. It’s our pleasure to speak with our shareholders this morning as we release our first quarter results. As always we appreciate your taking the time to participate on the call today. First an overview; it was a good quarter for EARN, particularly given the high levels of interest rate volatility that impacted the market. And we earned $3.7 million or $0.40 per share on a fully mark-to-market basis. Our core earnings of $0.66 per share comfortably covered our $0.55 dividend which equates to a 0.12% yield based on our March 31st book value and a yield of more than 0.13% based on our May 4 closing price. In our Agency portfolio we benefited from the strong performance of our holdings of specified pools, which we still believe offer substantial prepayment protection. The surge in refinancing activity in the first half of the quarter served as a reminder that prepayment risk is still significant and enhance the value of our specified pools relative to our short TBA hedging portfolio. The first quarter’s volatility also created trading opportunities for us. We returned over 25% of our agency portfolio to further enhance its composition and capitalize on inefficiencies. Meanwhile our non-agency portfolio again contributed positively to our results, as the non-agency market continued to benefit from a lack of new issuance, as well as supportive fundamentals, such as improving delinquency and foreclosure trends. Looking forward as you will hear from Mark we expect specified pools to continue to outperform in the near to medium term and we remain positioned accordingly. We will follow the same format as we have on previous calls. First Lisa will run through our financial results. Then Mark will discuss how the residential mortgage backed securities market performed over the course of the quarter, how we positioned our RMBS portfolio and what our market outlook is. Finally I’ll follow with some additional remarks before opening the floor to questions. As described in our earnings press release we posted a first quarter earnings conference call presentation to our website, www.earnreit.com. You can find it in three different places on the website; on the home page, on the for our shareholders page or on the presentations page. Lisa and Mark’s prepared remarks will track the presentation. So it will be helpful if you have this presentation in front of you and turn to slide four to follow along. As a reminder during this call we’ll sometimes refer to Ellington Residential, by its New York stock exchange ticker E-A-R-N or EARN for short. Hopefully you now have the presentation in front of you and open to page four and with that I’m going to turn it over to Lisa.

Lisa Mumford

Analyst

Thank you, Larry and good morning everyone. In the first quarter we generated net income of $3.7 million or $0.40 per share. The components of our net income were as follows; our core earnings totaled approximately $6 million or $0.66 per share, net realized and unrealized gains from our mortgage-backed securities portfolio were $11.9 million or $1.30 per share. And we had net realized and unrealized losses from derivatives of $14.3 million or $1.56 per share, excluding the net periodic cost associated with our interest rate swaps. This is a significant improvement over the fourth quarter one short losses in our interest rate hedging portfolio and driven a net loss of $1.2 million or $0.13 per share. Our fourth quarter net income had been comprised of core earnings of $7 million or $0.76 per share, net realized and unrealized gains on mortgage-backed securities of $14.1 million or $1.54 per share and net realized and unrealized losses on our interest rate hedging derivatives of $22.2 million or $2.43 per share. Our first quarter core earnings declined by approximately $1 million or $0.10 per share. This drop resulted from a decrease in our net interest income of $1.6 million or $0.18 per share, which was partially offset by a decline in our swap costs of $360,000 or $0.04 per share and a decrease in our operating expenses of $331,000, or $0.04 per share. Our first quarter net interest margin decreased to 2.21%, down 28 basis points from 2.49% in the fourth quarter. The decline was driven by a 29 basis point drop in our average asset yield which was only slightly offset by a one basis point decline in our quarterly cost of funds. With respect to our average asset yield in the first quarter our overall yield was 3.14%, including a…

Mark Tecotzky

Analyst

Thank you Lisa. With the significant increase interest rate volatility that we saw during the first quarter the period had the potential to be a very challenging for agency REIT managers. Volatility was as high as it has been for quite some time and the chart of 10 years course over the quarter looks a bit like a roller coaster ride. For many it was, even though the change between the quarters beginning and ending yields wasn’t enormous, the distance travelled was large. The 10 year yield peaked at 224 and fell to a low of 164. That’s a total swing of 60 basis points during the first quarter. That is a challenge for mortgage REIT managers who typically earn spread income by owning higher yielding RMBS, negative convexity and hedging them with lower yielding swaps with positive convexity. To produce returns in this environment which is not a particularly hospitable one for Agency RMBS investors, we don’t just aim to capture mortgage spread or market data. We seek to earn to generate significant alpha, first and foremost through smart portfolio construction and second through opportunistic trading to capture efficiencies and improve portfolio composition. It’s challenging to manage agency RMBS portfolios to credit when interest rates move dramatically because the portfolio constructions that captures a big net interest margin with market share improving also can expose you to greater book value declines in times of turbulence. We tried to design our portfolios with simultaneously capturing healthy NIM without taking undue interest rate risk. A big part of this is accomplished on the hedging side of the portfolio by our significant use of TBA shorts where we essentially buyback a significant chunk of a negative convexity of our agency pools. This portfolio construction helps in two ways during the first quarter.…

Laurence Penn

Analyst

Thanks Mark. I am sure that you can appreciate that Mark just scratched the surface in terms the richness of the opportunity set in agency pools. The agency pool market is one of those ideal market combinations of high liquidity, agency pools trade with a bid offer spread of just a few 30 seconds but at the same time they have high complexity just to look at all the different types of specified pools, each one with the unique and highly complex characteristics, not only involving interest rates but servicer specific and originator specific behavior, geography, loan to value ratios, FICO credit scores and others including of course loan balances which was the characteristic that Mark happened to be discussing. This makes it an exciting market for us. The liquidity of this market allows us to very activity manage the portfolio, the depth and breadth of this market allows us to be disciplined about what kind of pools we choose to be invested in at any given time and the complexity, the wide availability of data and the rich history of this market allows us to really drill down and try to tease out the value of all these different pool characteristics including applying Ellington’s extensive expertise in pre-payment and interest rate modeling and analysis. We delivered a totaled economic return of 2.2% for the first quarter which equates to 9.3% on an annualized basis. And this week marks the two year anniversary of our IPO and over that period which includes the steep rise in interest rates known as the taper tantrum we’ve generated 10% total economic return with low volatility, compare that combination the performance of our peer group over the same period. Our disciplined risk management has enabled us to generate strong returns since our inception, despite…

Operator

Operator

The floor is now open for questions. [Operator Instruction]. Your first question is from Steven DeLaney, with JMP Securities.

Steven DeLaney

Analyst

Good morning everyone. May be I would like to start with Lisa’s comments about the premium adjustment, you reported core EPS of $0.66 but shouldn’t we view that as $0.70 if we add back the $0.04 one-time premium catch?

Lisa Mumford

Analyst

Yeah, you could view it that way and also last quarter we had a positive adjustment and that would add back $0.02.

Steven DeLaney

Analyst

Yes, so you had $0.76 reported, what was the per share positive benefit last quarter, Lisa?

Lisa Mumford

Analyst

$0.02.

Steven DeLaney

Analyst

$0.02, okay so that would normalize if we want an apples on apples that would be $0.74, so $0.70 versus $0.74. Okay, thank you very much. And looking at the compression on yield I mean that looks like that was really the story, especially since you had a good quarter from a trading standpoint. So $0.28 basis points decline in the NIM to 221 and I believe that you said that 13 bps was associated with the catch up premium is that correct?

Lisa Mumford

Analyst

That’s correct.

Steven DeLaney

Analyst

I guess Mark or Larry should we attribute the remaining decline of what 15 basis points or so, is that just related pretty much to the CPR picking up to 6.3 versus 4.6 in the fourth quarter?

Laurence Penn

Analyst

Well it’s not just that, this is Larry Steve.

Steven DeLaney

Analyst

Hello

Laurence Penn

Analyst

Hi, how are you?

Steven DeLaney

Analyst

Good, thank you.

Laurence Penn

Analyst

Good, that’s part of it but we turn over the portfolio a lot, so especially on the asset side. So you are going to see as yields decline, let’s say from one quarter to next you are going to just naturally see a decline in yields just because we are replacing higher yielding assets that were purchased in the higher rate environment with lower yielding assets that were purchased more recently. So as we turnover especially the assets out of the portfolio and Mark mentioned how when you saw the volatility and pay ups and just the overall volatility that’s going to lead to that kind of turnover. You are going to see a natural decline when rates decline and then conversely this quarter I would expect the reverse to happen.

Steven DeLaney

Analyst

So coupon roll down, roll down and roll up just based on which you are getting into and out of in the market place on your trading?

Laurence Penn

Analyst

Yeah.

Steven DeLaney

Analyst

Okay, okay got it. Obviously we have got a pretty big back up in rates I guess over the 220 on the 10 year so as you look at the second quarter can you comment on what your expectations for CPR would be in the second quarter versus that the 6.3 average in 1Q?

Mark Tecotzky

Analyst

Hey Steve its Mark. Tonight I believe tonight the night we get the monthly prepayment report. So I think in aggregate expectations the prepayments should drop somewhere in the order of 8% to 10%.

Steven DeLaney

Analyst

Quarter to quarter?

Mark Tecotzky

Analyst

Yeah quarter-to-quarter, that’s for the market as a whole when you have prepayment protected pools, may be you might see the same thing on a percentage basis but on an absolute basis the actual prepayment change is not that large. So for most of what we own I don’t think it’s going to be a big issue. We have not, we have been trying not to expose ourselves to things that we thought had a lot of potential prepayment volatility to them like lot of the jumbo pools and things like that.

Steven DeLaney

Analyst

Okay, great and just one final thing, obviously we have heard about the impact of rate volatility on just about every earnings call and the book values have certainly been challenged - and you did not have a significant drop of less than 1% but nevertheless you have a home market stability there. I guess if you look at to quarter, the second quarter the market would you say generally that since March 31 that conditions in the market have generally been more supportive of book value stability than they were in the first quarter. And I don’t know if you can comment on the trend in your book value post March 31, but anything you can say would be appreciated?

Mark Tecotzky

Analyst

Yeah, I think mortgages have traded well so far in the second quarter but the interest rate volatility has really been with us in earnest the last really since third or fourth week of April where you had several days in a row where yields have climbed. So then when that happens right there is pretty significant changes in duration of your portfolio. So something we look at every day, something we manage through. So I would say it’s really cross trends. Mortgages have done very well, relative to swaps and this moving rate is going to reduce some of the refi generated supply, sort of take those supply pressures off the market. But this also requires some delta hedging and that can manifest itself as buying high and selling low, if it reversed its course. But I just think right now rates are very unpredictable. So it’s important to try to stay on top of these moves and make sure you have them contained as best you can.

Steven DeLaney

Analyst

Appreciate your candor. I mean what I am hearing you say is maintaining a stable book value is a very challenging job in this type of market and it sounds like that’s something that you focus on every day.

Mark Tecotzky

Analyst

And part of it I would say if you are not - if you don’t have a big portfolio of either swap changes or short TBA positions then it’s going to be very, very difficult, when you got a quick upswing like this to not have a significant deterioration of book value. So as you got a big portfolio of fixed rate pools. So I think we have tended to focus on the TBA short side of that, because that accomplishes other things for us as well and it also allows us to express our view of TBA so it’s for us you can see as a percentage of the time we generally have had a pretty healthy share of our interest rate hedges in the form of TBAs. That really comes in incredibly handy when you got a big rate move.

Steven DeLaney

Analyst

Guys appreciate the color and congrats on another solid quarter and covering the dividend very well. Thank you.

Mark Tecotzky

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. There are no further questions at this time. Ladies and gentlemen this concludes Ellington Residential Mortgage REITs first quarter 2015 financial results conference call. Please disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day.