Earnings Labs

Ellington Credit Company (EARN)

Q2 2020 Earnings Call· Sat, Aug 8, 2020

$4.76

+0.32%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT 2020 Second Quarter Financial Results Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to [Tara Barn], Manager of SEC Reporting. Miss, you may begin.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst

Thank you, and welcome to Ellington Residential's Second Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that certain statements made during this conference call may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements are not historical in nature. As described under Item 1A of our annual report on Form 10-K filed on March 12, 2020, and Part 2 Item 1A of our quarterly report on Form 10-Q filed on May 11, 2020, forward-looking statements are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties that could cause the company's actual results to differ from its beliefs, expectations, estimates and projections. Consequently, you should not rely on these forward-looking statements as predictions of future events. Statements made during this conference call are made as of the date of this call, and the company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Joining me on the call today are Larry Penn, Chief Executive Officer of Ellington Residential; Mark Tecotzky, our Co-Chief Investment Officer; and Chris Smernoff, our Chief Financial Officer. As described in our earnings press release, our second quarter earnings conference call presentation is available on our website, earnreit.com. Our comments this morning will track the presentation. Please note that any references to figures in this presentation are qualified in their entirety by the end notes at the back of the presentation. With that, I will now turn the call over to Larry.

Laurence Penn

Analyst

Thanks, Tara, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate your time and interest in Ellington Residential. This was a great second quarter for Ellington Residential, capping an amazing first half of the year performance for the company in what was obviously an extremely challenging environment for mortgage REITs. The second quarter of 2020 began with the continuation of the COVID-related market turmoil that had rocked the markets in March. By mid-April, however, these market stresses had subsided considerably. Massive purchasing by the Federal Reserve continued to inject liquidity into the system, calming the market and putting a ceiling on agency mortgage spreads. In fact, the Fed now owns about 30% of the entire agency MBS market. At the same time, many credit-sensitive fixed income assets rebounded sharply over the course of the second quarter, following the violent sell off in March. The MOVE Index, which measures interest rate volatility, reverted to pre-crisis levels in mid-April after reaching its highest point since the 2008 financial crisis in March. The 10-year treasury traded in an extremely tight 33 basis point range in the second quarter as compared to a 134 basis point range for the first quarter. As you can see on Slide 3, we the 10-year treasury yields were virtually unchanged quarter-over-quarter and remained near an all-time low at June 30. With mortgage rates also near all-time lows, prepayment speeds spiked during the quarter, with overall market CPRs reaching a more than 7-year high in June. During March, pay-ups had declined considerably and also compressed considerably in the face of market-wide liquidity stresses. Cash was king in March and early April, and the market really stopped distinguishing between pools based on deep value. As discussed on our last earnings call, we responded to these stresses by selling our low pay-up specified pools…

Christopher Smernoff

Analyst

Thank you, Larry, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide 6 for a summary of EARN's financial results. For the quarter ended June 30, we reported net income of $21.3 million or $1.73 per share. Core earnings were $3.2 million or $0.26 per share. These results compared to a net loss of $16.7 million or $1.35 per share and core earnings of $3.4 million or $0.27 per share for the first quarter. Core earnings exclude the catch-up premium amortization adjustment, which was negative $3.8 million in the second quarter compared to negative $0.7 million in the prior quarter. As you can also see on Slide 6, net income for the quarter was primarily driven by net realized and unrealized gains on our agency specified pools and non-Agency RMBS. You can also see here that our net interest margin improved significantly during the quarter, increasing 66 basis points to 1.86%, driven by significantly lower borrowing costs. Despite the increase in NIM, our core earnings per share decreased slightly as a result of significantly lower average holdings quarter-over-quarter. Average pay-ups on our specified pools increased to 2.69% as of June 30 as compared to 1.67% as of March 31 as actual and projected prepayments rose significantly with declining mortgage rates. Turning next to our balance sheet on Slide 7. We continue to maintain ample liquidity during the second quarter. At June 30, we had cash of $50.9 million, along with other unencumbered assets of approximately $45.1 million. Most of those unencumbered assets were non-Agency RMBS. We did not finance any of the non-Agency RMBS that we purchased during the quarter. As of June 30, substantially all of our borrowings continue to be secured by specified pools. Our debt-to-equity ratio declined modestly quarter-over-quarter to 6.8:1 as of June 30 from 7.2:1 as…

Mark Tecotzky

Analyst

Thanks, Chris. I'm pleased with EARN's performance for both the quarter and year-to-date through the second quarter. Returning over 15% for the quarter and now 3.5% for the year, EARN was able to mitigate the March drawdown with our prudent leverage and disciplined hedging, while still being able to capture the tremendous upside in Q2 when the Fed support repaired investor balance sheets and drove asset prices higher. There were a number of notable things in this quarter. The first thing to note for Q2 was that interest rate volatility was extremely low. So that tells you that the extent of the Fed intervention was more than equal to the task at hand. As one example of low volatility, the magnitude of the trading range in Agency MBS for the entire quarter was comparable to what it was on certain single trading days in March. Coupled with the consistent and substantial Fed purchases, this column in Q2 was obviously a headwind for Agency MBS. Of course, whenever you make 15% in the quarter, you can't expect your assets to be as cheap as they were at the start of the quarter, so we can't get complacent. In general, we think there is still a very good opportunity in Agency RMBS right now, but we see big differences between subsectors of that market. We view this as a market where some coupons and specified pool stories are very attractive but many other parts of the market, frankly, are unappealing right now. Another thing to note for Q2 was that the Federal Reserve purchasing was the overwhelming driver of the market. For a levered mortgage investor like EARN, what is great about this market is that you have 1 giant participant, the Fed, which telegraphs everything it does. The Fed is also…

Laurence Penn

Analyst

Thanks Mark. I'm really pleased with our performance for the first 6 months of 2020. During the extreme volatility of the first quarter, our risk and liquidity management protected book value, allowed us to avoid forced sales and freed up capital, putting us in a position to play offense in the second quarter while asset prices were still depressed. We took advantage of some very attractive investment opportunities in both agency and non-Agency MBS. And as a result, we were able to participate in the market recovery, more than earning back the first quarter loss. Remarkably, we generated a positive year-to-date economic return of 3.5% through June 30, and our strong performance has enabled us to maintain our dividend throughout despite historically low interest rates and high volatility. Just as remarkably, I believe that EARN was the only publicly traded mortgage REIT to have a positive total return on its common stock for the first half of the year. Year-to-date through August 3, the total return on EARN's stock was a positive 7.4%, again, unmatched by its mortgage REIT peers. As Mark mentioned, we are still seeing lots of good tailwinds, such as record low repo borrowing costs, which helped increase our net interest margin by 66 basis points last quarter to its widest level in a few years and which should help drive core earnings going forward. But there are also significant headwinds as well as crosscurrents. We are in an ultra-low interest rate environment with record high levels of prepayments. This will doubtless drive further divergence of performance between different subsectors of the agency MBS market. We believe that this market environment actually plays to our strengths. Pool selection, hedging choices and risk management should continue to drive long-term performance. The divergence over the first half of the…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from line of Doug Harter with Crédit Suisse.

Douglas Harter

Analyst

Thanks. I was wondering if you could just talk about kind of how your risk profile might look a little different given that you're kind of buying kind of the current production TBAs versus kind of pools and kind of how you're thinking about managing that different risk profile.

Mark Tecotzky

Analyst

Doug, it's Mark. So I think the one thing it does is it improves liquidity a little bit. While specified pools are liquid, they're not as liquid to TBA. And as you get into specified pools with higher pay-ups, liquidity comes down a little bit. So I think one thing with the TBAs is you pick up a little bit better liquidity. Now the flip side is, are you have a little bit worse convexity, right? So you're -- the TBAs are typically the cheapest to deliver, so they tend to be most reactive to prepayments. And so one of the reasons why this TBA strategy has been working out well is because we've been in an environment where there is not a lot of interest rate volatility, right? So the Fed has really dampened a lot of the interest rate volatility, and Larry mentioned it. So it adds a little negative convexity. You go up a little bit in liquidity, but you're adding negative convexity to time when delta hedging costs have been extremely low and that the benefit of these very high roll levels, you put it all together and I think it's been a plus. And for the higher coupons, there are still a lot of things to do. It's just -- we're just bringing to bear all our prepayment expertise and all the data analysis we do to try to find the most call-protected pools where the pay-ups are not -- where we don't find the pay-ups onerous.

Douglas Harter

Analyst

Got it. And just on those pay-ups, I guess, how have you seen them trend so far, I guess, for July and first few days of August?

Mark Tecotzky

Analyst

They're well supported. You haven't seen as big a move as you saw in the second quarter where they completely repriced. A lot of the way we understood pay-ups at the end of Q1 was the very depressed pay-up levels were a manifestation of the fact that balance sheet was in very short supply. And the way we understand a lot of the return to stability of the market is that the Fed was very, very aggressive in providing balance sheet. So it's interesting. I talked in the script how now they're focused on buying the coupons that impact the mortgage rate for homeowners that want to buy and homeowners that want to refi. But that's a little bit different tack than what they took in March. In March, they were buying a range of coupons because they astutely recognized that there were some big holders of agency mortgages that were -- had very stressed balance sheets. And in order to give them balance sheet relief, the Fed had to buy sort of the coupon distribution of what some of these platforms held, which is what they did. But once the balance sheets were repaired and you really saw that manifested by the big drop in repo rates, how repo rates came down and collapsed basically to 3-month LIBOR, once that happened, then the Fed shifted their purchases to what the market calls production coupons. So the coupons where you're going to have the biggest impact on the mortgage rates that are offered to consumers.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mikhail Goberman with JMP Securities.

Mikhail Goberman

Analyst · JMP Securities.

Good afternoon. Good morning. I was wondering if you guys could give an update on book value performance thus far in the third quarter, please.

Laurence Penn

Analyst · JMP Securities.

It's Larry. Yes. We're not going to give an update on that. But as Mark just mentioned, pay-ups were well supported in July. And the market was -- continued sort of a very low-vol environment. Rates didn't move much. And so those are both supportive of book value, as you can imagine.

Mikhail Goberman

Analyst · JMP Securities.

All right. Fair enough. And Mark, forgive me if I'm wrong. In your prepared comments, did you mention that you're looking at some CMBS opportunistically? Or am I wrong?

Mark Tecotzky

Analyst · JMP Securities.

No. If I misspoke, I apologize. What I mentioned is that in the second quarter, we opportunistically added some legacy RMBS. So those are non-agency mortgages that were originated generally 2007 and earlier, and EARN had very small allocation to that sector pre-COVID. And when the Fed sort of healed a lot of agency mortgage focused balance sheets in March and April, even at that point, there was still a lot of stress on balance sheets that owned non-Agency RMBS or non-Agency CMBS. And so we saw an opportunity in the second quarter to add to our holdings in non-Agency RMBS.

Mikhail Goberman

Analyst · JMP Securities.

All right. If I can get one more in, just a quick question about expenses. I noticed a bit of a spike in the professional fees. Wondering if that's kind of a onetime thing or any color on that?

Christopher Smernoff

Analyst · JMP Securities.

Sure. It's Chris. I can take that question. So given that both our current S-3 shelf registration and ATM program are set to expire in October of this year, we decided to expense the majority of our deferred offering costs in the second quarter, and this is what created that spike in professional fees. Absent this spike, we expect our expense ratio to hover around the mid-3%.

Michael Hall

Analyst · JMP Securities.

Great. Congrats on that book value getting pretty much all the way back to the $12.91 at the end of the year. That's -- it's almost there about $0.10 more.

Operator

Operator

At this time, there are no further questions. This concludes today's call. You may now disconnect your lines.