Earnings Labs

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC)

Q3 2020 Earnings Call· Wed, Oct 28, 2020

$13.68

-2.08%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

+1.46%

1 Week

+9.08%

1 Month

+29.15%

vs S&P

+18.31%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Hilda and I will be your operator for today. Welcome to the Ecopetrol’s Earnings Conference Call in which we will discuss the main financial and operations results for the Third Quarter 2020. All lines have been muted. There will be a Q&A session at the end of the presentation. Before we begin, it is important to mention that the comments in this call by Ecopetrol’s senior management include projections of the company’s future performance. These projections do not constitute any commitment as to future results, nor do they take into account risks or uncertainties that could materialize. As a result, Ecopetrol assumes no responsibility in the event that future results are different from the projections shared in this conference call. The call will be led by Mr. Felipe Bayón, CEO of Ecopetrol; Alberto Consuegra, COO; and Jaime Caballero, CFO. Thank you for your attention. Mr. Bayón, you may begin your conference. Felipe Bayón: Good morning, everyone. And welcome to this conference call, where we will discuss our operating and financial results for the third quarter of the year. We hope you and your families continue to be safe. Personal and social awareness continue to be key elements to overcome the health emergency that we have experienced during 2020. The third quarter of the year was characterized by a better operating and financial performance associated with a gradual increase in our operations and aligned with demand recovery. This ramp up has been reflected in higher operational activity levels. For example, Ecopetrol S.A., where we have had an increase of active drilling rigs from two rigs in April to 10 rigs by the end of September. Likewise, in order to preserve our employees’ health and safety, our field personnel have progressively returned to their on-site work since…

Alberto Consuegra

Management

Thank you, Felipe. During the third quarter, we saw a gradual recovery of our operating results aligned with domestic demand recovery and a higher price levels. On exploration, we drilled three wells, totaling 10 wells over the year. We expect to exceed our 2020 targets with 17 wells drilled, four more than originally planned due to the inclusion of three wells through joint operating agreements and the appraisal of the Chacha 3 well [ph], an extensive field test was carried out in the Arrecife-1 side track well, a gas discovery drilled by Hocol in 2018. Sales began on October 1st, with a production of 3.5 million cubic feet of gas per day. I would like to highlight the commercial agreements achieved by Hocol and Lewis Energy for the exploration of natural gas in the frontier play in the Perdices block located in the department of Atlántico. Currently, the assignment of Hocol interests to Lewis Energy is subject to the ANH approval. Abroad, we continue our progress in completing the appraisal phase of the Gato do Mato project. Ecopetrol’s Groups production reached the cumulative average of 698,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. We expected production near to 700,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day by year end line up with our target for the year. Additionally, the Ecopetrol Group launched Ronda Campos 2020, an initiative to offer its entire stake in nine development and production assets, six of them owned by Hocol and three by Ecopetrol. This asset divestment process is part of the company’s portfolio turnover and supports Ecopetrols Group’s strategic pillars. During the quarter, we tested transporting heavy crude of 650 centistokes in some of our main pipeline systems, which will allow us to have greater dilution efficiencies. Currently, we are analyzing the economic feasibility of the scheme.…

Jaime Caballero

Management

Thank you, Alberto. EBITDA for the quarter was COP5.3 trillion, reverting to the level reach in the first quarter of this year, despite lower Brent reference levels, lower production on sales. Thanks to improved realization prices, operating performance, and OpEx optimizations, which contributed towards an EBITDA margin of 43% comparable to 2019 levels. I’d like to highlight the turnaround in EBITDA generation across the upstream and downstream segments, which are once again showing positive results, some even higher than those experienced in the first quarter and generating an EBITDA per barrel of $22.5. The best year-to-date. Cash indicators exhibited a major improvement during the quarter. The business reached a positive free cash flow, reversing the trend of the first semester. Cash breakeven, which is the Brent price necessary to fulfill the commitments of the period considering all inflows and outflows was $26.6 per barrel. Thanks to the increasing cash flow from operational activities, we prepaid short-term obligations for the amount of COP1.6 trillion equivalence. If current market conditions remain, we anticipate a strengthened gross debt-to-EBITDA year end closing position versus our previous estimates. Net income breakeven was $38 per barrel, the lowest year-to-date, demonstrating the increasing the impact of the interventions carried out to guarantee the Group’s resilience to the new market conditions. Please let’s move on to the next slide to discuss the income for the quarter. Net income for the third quarter of 2020 increased compared to the second quarter, mainly due to a COP1.9 trillion increase in revenues due to a higher sales basket price, which grew 23% more than the Brent reference, supported by a commercial strategy that captured the improvement in demand conditions for both crude oil and products. Second, the positive effect associated to the increase in sold gas and products. Third, improving operating…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] We have a question from Gabriel Barra from UBS.

Gabriel Barra

Analyst

Hi, Felipe, Jaime, Alberto. Thanks for the presentation. I have two questions from my end here. The first regarding the developments off the production in Colombia, with this new framework the country has now the guidelines required to advance towards the execution of those pilot tests, right? And I have -- as you have -- you mentioned, Ecopetrol’s interest in these new developments opportunity. And my question, after the result of the set launched by the National Hydrocarbons Agency to select the contracts next month. What would be the next steps here and how should we think about the timeline of the unconventional development in Colombia? And I mean, when should we expect the first production coming from these developments and how the company see the size of these new markets? On lifting cost, look at the figures that the company has reported the year-to-date, they are much lower than what the company were running in 2019 around $8.5 per barrel. And my question here is, it’s -- this is the normalized level going forward and if you should expect an effect from the monthly delays in 2020 to 2021 lifting costs are in the fourth quarter results. If I may, I have just one more here on the domestic demand and we saw during the presentation that the company expect -- expectations regarding improvements in fuel sales for the last quarter. But this is still below the levels pre-COVID, right? And my question is regarding the company’s estimate in relation to the return of this demand to the next year and how do you see the base case for 2021? So that’s our -- my questions here. Thank you. Felipe Bayón: Thanks, Gabriel. I am going to take the first part on unconventionals, talk a little bit about demand…

Alberto Consuegra

Management

Gabriel, good morning and thanks for your question. With regard to lifting cost and we have to remind that, during the second quarter, we had to stop activities and basically operate with a minimum vital [ph]. That took us the lifting cost under $7 per barrel. As we have been reopening fields and reopening wells, the lifting cost has slightly increased. When you see the third Q, you look at a lifting cost of $7.20 and what we see by year end is a slight increase and we will be ending the year, probably, in the range of $7.04 to $8 per barrel. And that will be because of ensuring that we reopen all closed production, because of our price and also because we have been able to cope with some operating close downs associated with social unrest.

Gabriel Barra

Analyst

Thank you. Good. Thank you, guys.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Bruno Montanari from Morgan Stanley.

Bruno Montanari

Analyst

Hi. Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. I have two questions. Felipe, if I may a follow-up from the Spanish call. I believe you mentioned that reserves could potentially decline between 15% to 20% with the information available to-date, I just wanted to check if that this is purely based on the oil price movement only or if it also accounts on any other technical aspects that the company might have revised in the process of start building up the reserve report? And my second question is about gas, and first, thanks very much for providing more granularity on the gas results. It’s very useful for us. And you showed that your gas margins are actually quite attractive, especially while oil prices remain depressed. So, with that in mind, would it make sense perhaps to increase investments in gas versus oil in the coming years? Thank you very much. Felipe Bayón: Bruno, thanks for the question. In terms of reserves, I will take the -- that question and I am going to ask Yeimy Baez, our Gas Vice President, to take the second one, but I will provide some context. So in terms of the guidance that we see right now, the 50% to 20% decline in reserves is a number that we are -- we see factoring everything in. So it does have a view on prices. It does have a view of our level of activity or level of investment, some of the difficulties that were mentioned in the call in terms of our ability to go back to higher levels of activity. So even though we have gone back to over 350 work fronts around the country, those are -- that guidance does reflect our view on how the fields are performing, how the price…

Yeimy Baez

Analyst

Sure. Bruno, thank you very much for your question. First, I would like to emphasize that gas has a strategic priority position within the Ecopetrol business plan being an essential fuel in the energy and economy transition. As we have said, and Felipe just mentioned that, we will invest about $800 million in the 2020-2022 period in projects related to exploit potential in the Colombian foothills, Caribbean onshore and offshore and unconventional basins. Of course, to be consistent with our strategic intent, we are actively looking for opportunities to create optionality and deliver growth. In particular, I would like to highlight three sources of opportunities to increase our investment outlook. First, in the foothills, we are in the process to mature debottlenecking projects to maximize the production and deliver the full potential of that basin. Second, if we are successful in exploring the foothills and Caribbean place, the investments will significantly increase to develop those resources. Also, we continue pursuing new exploration opportunities by mapping new prospects within our current portfolio. And finally, I would say that, we are committing also with our sustainable business, and therefore, we are planning also to increase the investments in social projects to provide access to gas and LPG to the most vulnerable communities in Colombia. And from an environmental perspective, we are striving to increase usage of gas in transportation and to become the supporting beam for electricity generation. I hope I answer your question, Bruno.

Bruno Montanari

Analyst

That’s very clear. Thank you both for the detailed explanation.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] We have a question from Lilyanna Yang from HSBC.

Lilyanna Yang

Analyst

Hi. This is Lily Yang. Just a quick question, please. I wonder why the midstream business was weak quarter-over-quarter. I don’t know if you addressed that in the beginning, but volumes came up, right, in the third quarter versus second quarter. And I think that the type discounts that you are giving to the producers they also were already lifted. So can you explain how I could see the business going forward? Thank you. Felipe Bayón: Lily, good morning and thanks for being in the call again. Appreciate your question. I am going to ask Milena López from the Midstream segment to take your question around the performance in the quarter. Milena, please go… Milena López: Thank you. Felipe Bayón: Go ahead. Milena López: Thank you, Felipe. Hi, Lily. Thank you for your question. When you look at a second quarter numbers versus third quarter numbers at the midstream level you basically have three sources of revenue. You have refined product pipeline where volume was up and consequently revenues were up. Basically these go from approximately COP438 billion to COP529 billion, so you have a COP90 billion increase in terms of the refined products pipeline. However, at the same time, when you look at production and volumes that are transported to our crude oil pipeline, there is an impact in the change of the way volumes are routed. The big difference between second quarter and third quarter, if you remember the results from the refining segment, is that when we look at the volumes that were being used at the Barrancabermeja refinery, this was up by approximately 40,000 barrels when you compare second quarter to third quarter. So, when you look at the impact of this in the transportation segment, as we are giving approximately 40,000 barrels per day more in volume to the Barranca refinery, these are volumes that no longer continue through the rest of the path that takes them to Coveñas and port. So, these 40,000 barrels are part of our total volume because they are delivered to refineries, but they no longer go to a segment -- Esenttia third segment and they don’t pay the export fees at port or they no longer go to the [inaudible] segment and don’t pay export fees at port. So basically what you see is well evacuated volumes are the same, there are 40,000 barrels. They are no longer making it to port, because they go to the refinery. Hence, they pay a total overall tariff in the system that is lower when you compared to second quarter to third quarter. Going forward, you should continue to expect to see this behavior as we continue providing transportation services to Barranca and these barrels no longer make it to port because they are used by the refiners. And that’s basically…

Lilyanna Yang

Analyst

Yeah. Thank you. Milena López: … compensate for the increase in refined product pipeline.

Lilyanna Yang

Analyst

Okay. Got it. Clear. Excellent. Thank you so much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We have a follow-up question from Bruno Montanari from Morgan Stanley.

Bruno Montanari

Analyst

Hi. Thanks. I joined again for two more questions. First one on the oil price baskets, it was very interesting to see that you returned basically back to the same level of discount before the crisis at around $5 a barrel. Should we expect this to remain stable at those levels or do you see an opportunity to capture even better realizations going forward on the back of your oil slate? And then the second question is about the CapEx range for the fourth quarter. I fully understand that you had the budget for the year with the variance of $500 million. But it strikes me as a little bit odd that we are already in November and there’s still such a big variance of $500 million. So are you more inclined to be on the bottom end of the range or the top end of the range for the CapEx in the year? Thank you. Felipe Bayón: Thanks, Bruno. And I will give you some context and I will ask then Pedro on the oil price for our basket of crudes and Jaime and Alberto to add any comments on CapEx. So, in terms of the basket from our -- for our exports, please bear in mind that normally we sell our crude two months in advance. So crude for November-December have been placed already in markets and we are actually seeing a good behavior in that sense and again we estimate the year should finish in good shape. And as you know we saw a very dramatic drop in 2Q, very, very difficult, but our crudes are considered a part of the base run or the base load for the rig some refineries in China and you saw that we have expanded some of our destinations to India and Korea. So I think that’s part of how we should view the question. Obviously, there’s still uncertainty around the topline and which is the price for Brent. In terms of CapEx, as I said, I am going to ask Alberto and Jaime to comment. So, Pedro, if you can give us some more color around these kinds of price basket, that would be great and then Alberto and Jaime, a little bit on the CapEx. Pedro?

Pedro Manrique

Analyst

Yeah. Thank you, Felipe. And thank you, Bruno for your questions. Yes. Certainly, because of the market conditions on the third quarter, what we are seeing is the demand is recovering, and as demand recovered, our discounts were much lower compared to the second quarter. And -- but they are coming back to levels that we had in the first quarter and the average discount that we saw last year, and this is basically due to the commercial strategy that we have been working on for quite some time, because as Felipe mentioned, most of our crude has been able to be placed in customers that use it in their base branch of their refineries and most of the crude is going into end users. And the other thing is that we are very active in looking for the best markets to place our barrels and then we have been able to sign long-term contracts with end users, refineries in strategic markets like Asia, the U.S. Gulf region, the eastern part of the United States as well and Europe. So what we are doing commercially is that we basically place our barrels whatever we can have the best realization for the barrels. And basically, our -- this is combined to the focus that we have been given to our goods for exports regarding quality, because quality has been very stable and we are -- we have a very competitive edge with our Castilla because of the low sulfur and the stability of the quality and also because we deliver barrel some time, so there is a lot of reliability from our side and that’s why we have been recognized by the market and our customers as one of the best crudes -- heavy crudes from Latin America. So what we foresee and also is that we already have done for the year, our production program has already been placed in the market and actually next week we are going to start showing barrels in key markets out for the beginning of the year. So we already -- we are seeing that because of all these conditions together, the discounts are very good and realization prices were being optimized and maximized over time and going forward. Thank you.

Jaime Caballero

Management

Bruno, with regards to CapEx, we feel very comfortable with the CapEx deployment in terms of the midstream and the refining segments, as well as in exploration. The uncertainty comes out with the CapEx associated with development. And specifically because we are going to -- although we are ramping up activity and we feel that October has been kind of a good month, I have to remind you that we still are facing the pandemic and there is uncertainty and the degree of the pandemic during the months of November and December and how it is going to affect our operations specifically in regions like the Llanos and the Magdalena -- the Medio del Magdalena. So that’s why we still maintain the range. Hopefully in November we can have a better view on how that CapEx will go.

Bruno Montanari

Analyst

All right. Fair enough. Thank you very much again.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] We have no further questions at this time. Now I will turn the call back to Mr. Bayón for final remarks. Felipe Bayón: Thank you. And thanks again everyone for being here today for participating in the 3Q conference call for Ecopetrol. We value your insights. We value your questions. We value that you follow the company and we will continue and strive to work to ensure that we can provide timely, transparent and relevant information that can help your analysis. 3Q shows signs of recovery after a very, very tough, very difficult second quarter. We are seeing different aspects of the operational side of the business that are improving, that are showing resilience of the company and that are then transferred into the financial side of the business and the results that we have shared with you today. Thanks, again, for your participation. We hope that you stay safe, and hopefully, we will be able to chat again very soon in the near future. Have a great day.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today’s conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.