Earnings Labs

New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (EDU)

Q4 2016 Earnings Call· Wed, Jul 20, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good evening and thank you for standing by for New Oriental’s Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2016 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After management’s prepared remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. Today’s conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. I would now like to turn the meeting over to your host today, Ms. Sisi Zhao. Please go ahead, Ma’am.

Sisi Zhao

Management

Thank you. Hello everyone and welcome to New Oriental’s fourth quarter and fiscal year 2016 earnings conference call. Our financial results for the periods were released earlier today and are available on the Company’s website as well as on Newswire services. Today you will hear from Stephen Yang, Chief Financial Officer. After his prepared remarks, Stephen will be available to answer your questions. Before we continue, please note that the discussion today will contain forward-looking statements made under the Safe Harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. As such, our results may be materially different from the views expressed today. A number of potential risks and uncertainties are outlined in our public filings with the SEC. New Oriental does not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statements except as required under applicable law. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. In addition, a webcast of this conference call will be available on New Oriental’s Investor Relations website at investor.neworiental.org. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Yang. Stephen, please go ahead.

Stephen Yang

Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Sisi. Hello everyone, and thank you for joining us on the call. I am pleased to report another quarter of solid results. Net revenues in fiscal year 2016 increased to more than 18% to almost $1.5 billion with operating income up 29.5% and student enrollments up 25.8%. Throughout the fiscal year we opened six new schools in new cities and added a net of 18 learning centers in the existing cities. In total, we added approximately 71,000 square meters of classroom area extending capacity by 7%. At the same time, utilization rates consistently improved by 2% to 8% to around 19% during the fiscal year. In short, business has been quite positive trajectory, our strategies are working and our investments are bearing fruit allowing us to lay down important foundation for ongoing expansion and growth, particularly in areas of our O2O efforts. More specifically, our O2O Interactive Education System is now being used across all key business lines, teachers and students in all of 55 existing cities across our school networks are using our new POP Kids and U-Can Visible Progress Teaching system and the feedback we are getting is very strong. Also, we also launched the O2O system for our overseas test prep business, such as IELTS, TOEFL and SAT programs, in some of the large cities in China. The market feedback has been very positive in that area as well and will continue to improve our O2O products and services. In terms of the performance for the fourth fiscal quarter as mentioned before, this time of the year as part of our peak season for K-12 business which last through the second half of our fiscal year. And we performed quite well during this peak period this year. Fourth quarter net revenues exceeded the high ends…

Operator

Operator

Thank you, sir. [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Zoe Zhao from Credit Suisse. Please ask your question.

Zoe Zhao

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please ask your question

Hi, management. Thank you for taking my question. I have two questions. One is we've seen very strong K-12 enrolment growth for the past quarter, and then how if the growth rate of enrolment in June and July excluding promotion trending currently? And the second question is what is the retention like for the summer promotion so far? And do we see more aggressive than expected the sense from the so called players who also started to do promotion this quarter? Thank you.

Stephen Yang

Chief Financial Officer

Okay. Thank you, Zoe. I think for the K-12 business, yeah, we had very strong student enrolment in last year and also I think the good trend is continuing, even in the June and the first half of the July we're seeing the very strong student enrolment growth for K-12 business. And in terms of the summer promotion classes, I think we had very strong number. I think it is better than we expected. And till now we got – we got the 200,000 student enrolment so far. And I don't have the retention rate for the autumn semester till now, but based on my forecast I believe we will get 50% to 70% retention rates for those students who enrols in the low price summer classes. Is that clear?

Zoe Zhao

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please ask your question

I just want to clarify on the retention rate. Do we measure this by headcounts or enrolments, like course enrolments?

Stephen Yang

Chief Financial Officer

I think enrolments.

Zoe Zhao

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please ask your question

Right. And then could you give us more color about the very strong enrolment growth excluding promotion in June and July. Are we talking about like similar ballpark number as in like 30% to 40% for June and July? Or do we see a higher base effect for the next quarter, given the relatively soft guidance?

Stephen Yang

Chief Financial Officer

Zoe, you know when we announced – when we reported student enrollment, we don't count the low price student enrollment.

Zoe Zhao

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please ask your question

Yes. Understood, yes.

Stephen Yang

Chief Financial Officer

If take out the low price classes in the first half -- the first quarter we'll still see the student enrollment growth somewhere at 25% to 30%.

Zoe Zhao

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please ask your question

Okay. Thank you.

Stephen Yang

Chief Financial Officer

Okay. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Alvin Jiang from Deutsche Bank. Please ask your question.

Alvin Jiang

Analyst · Alvin Jiang from Deutsche Bank. Please ask your question

Hi. Thank you, management for taking my question. I have a quick question on the expansion plan in fiscal year 2017. We can see our peer company are really started, accelerated expansion into new cities. Do you think New Oriental will also accelerate expansion again? Is they're impacting to our operating margin going forward, because we can see – we have strong margin improvement in recent quarters, so I'm not sure how we look at this expansion and the margin in FY 2017? Thank you.

Stephen Yang

Chief Financial Officer

Okay. So, thanks, Alvin. In terms of the expansion plan, you know, we added 24 learning centers in the whole year of fiscal year 2016 and we open six new schools in five new cities in this year. And we expect to step into one or two, maybe three new cities in the coming New Year, and we plan to open 30 to 40 new learning centers in fiscal year 2017. So compared to the total learning centers we have now, you know, it’s a 748, it's just like a 5% to 7% expansion percentage. So our – you know, anyway what I mean this, our student enrolment growth, what is the volume growth in the coming year we expect to be in the range of like say, 15%, but the student enrolment will be like say, 25%. But volume growth will be at 15% growth. So, you will see the very strong same-store sales continuously in the fiscal year 2017. So based on the 30, 40 new learning centers we plan to build in fiscal 2017. It will not attract the margin, on contrary I think the operating margin in the fiscal year 2017 will be slightly go up because of the more leverage of the business. Yes, that's our plan, the expansion plan.

Alvin Jiang

Analyst · Alvin Jiang from Deutsche Bank. Please ask your question

Okay. Thank you.

Stephen Yang

Chief Financial Officer

Okay. Thanks Alvin.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Fan Liu from Goldman Sachs. Please ask your question.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Fan Liu from Goldman Sachs. Please ask your question

Thank for taking my questions. This is Jason [Indiscernible] asking on behalf of Fan Liu. Can the management share with us what's the utilization rate target by the end of fiscal year 2017? And also you mentioned about the strong model in your conference previously. Would you elaborate on that and how does it compare to our opponent TAL's model? Thank you.

Stephen Yang

Chief Financial Officer

Okay. Thanks, Jason. In terms of the utilization rates, you know, at the end of the year the fiscal year 2016, we got the utilization rates at about 19%, which means compared to last year we were 200 or 300 bps up and in fiscal year 2017 we hope we got the utilization rate by 20% or 21%, because its very easy to calculate. If our revenue grows by 20% RMB term and we just expand 7% of new cost areas, so it will drive the utilization rates up. And your second question is about the structure – you know, we're still in the process of the piloting the program and we just pilot the program in several cities since this year. So I think it's too early to say that what are the results or the impact for the business. But I think I will pull this question to maybe three or six months when we ran the business for several months our [Indiscernible] in more detail.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Fan Liu from Goldman Sachs. Please ask your question

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Natalie Wu from CICC. Please ask your question.

Natalie Wu

Analyst · Natalie Wu from CICC. Please ask your question

Hi. Good evening Stephen and Sisi. Thanks for taking my questions. I've got two questions for you actually. The first one is you mentioned that you've got 200,000 enrolment for your summer promotion, right? So just wondering what the percentage comes from Beijing? And can you update us which cities you only started the summer promotions plan since this year compared with last year. This is my first question. And the second one is regarding your guidance, can you give us some quick on each business lines forecasted growth say, POP Kids, U-Can, Oversea's English Prep, Domestic English Prep etcetera? Thank you.

Sisi Zhao

Management

Okay. Your first question is about the summer promotion classes. We've got 200,000 student enrolments for the summer promotion classes. And I think 50% that means 100,000 student enrolments belongs to Beijing. And you know we have around 30 cities to do the summer promotion. So the other let's say, the other cities except Beijing occupied another 50%. And your second question is for breakdown for the Q1 revenue guidance. You know typically we don't guide the revenue growth by business line, but in general I can share with you the some information as below, the K-12 business will grow by more than 30 – less than 30% to 40% in the Q1. And for the oversea test prep, I think it should be, let's the 10% in RMB term. What I'm saying is only RMB term, because I don't know the exchange rate. And the pure online 30% to 40% and also the add [ph] English and domestic test prep I think this will go down by 5%, this is a breakdown of the Q1 guidance.

Natalie Wu

Analyst · Natalie Wu from CICC. Please ask your question

Great. So, just further clarification, we have mentioned this like 50% of enrolments of your summer promotion coming from 13 cities. So, you mean that the net add cities this year is like 13 or total will increase?

Sisi Zhao

Management

30. Last year we only did this only in Beijing, but this year we spread out to 30 cities.

Natalie Wu

Analyst · Natalie Wu from CICC. Please ask your question

Great. What about the subjects? Do you also expand the subjects?

Sisi Zhao

Management

You know this year in Beijing the summer promotion classes are for all three subjects, Math, Chinese and English and also in Shanghai three subjects. But for the cities outside Beijing and Shanghai all the other cities only have the summer promotion class or math only.

Natalie Wu

Analyst · Natalie Wu from CICC. Please ask your question

Great. Thank you. Very helpful.

Sisi Zhao

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Tian Hou from T.H. Capital. Please ask your question.

Tian Hou

Analyst · Tian Hou from T.H. Capital. Please ask your question

Yes. Stephen and Sisi, good evening. So, I have question regarding the seasonality so as you guys exclude the weight away from English oversea test preparation to K-12, it seems like the seasonally that has been changed, but normally Q1 is a strongest quarter and however in this year or almost last year we didn't seen like a Q1 is still strongest quarter? So would you please elaborate the new norm of your seasonality? That's the number one question. The second question is related to your subject. English is your strong foothold and I wonder in U-Can program how are going to plan your rapidly growing your other subject? That's two questions.

Sisi Zhao

Management

Okay. Thanks, Tian. I think it’s a good question, the seasonality question. New Oriental business has changed a lot in the last three, four years. And the K-12 business is the key gross driver. And so the Q1 of the summer classes is not the strongest season. What I mean, you know, Q1 is not the peak season for K-12 business. So, if the Q3 and Q4 will be a big season for K-12 business. So if you recall the growth rate in individual quarters in fiscal 2016, in the Q1 of fiscal 2016 we got 16.4% and the second quarter, 18%, third quarter, 21% and fourth quarter almost 20% to 21%. So that means the Q1 should be the lowest season for the revenue growth, because the different business line, this is my answer to your first question. And your second question is about the subjects, you know within the U-Can, the middle school high school business, the English is only account for one-third of the total revenue. And the non-English subjects, the other eight subjects grow faster than the English thus going forward. So going forward you will see the higher growth rate for non-English subject, that's my answer. Is it clear?

Tian Hou

Analyst · Tian Hou from T.H. Capital. Please ask your question

Yes. Thank you.

Stephen Yang

Chief Financial Officer

Okay. Thanks, Tian.

Tian Hou

Analyst · Tian Hou from T.H. Capital. Please ask your question

Yes.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Wendy Huang from Macquarie. Please ask your question.

Wendy Huang

Analyst · Wendy Huang from Macquarie. Please ask your question

Thank you. My first question is about your cost strategy. So what kind of price increase or extension that we should expect for the FY 2017 across the different segments? And also the last quarter's non-GAAP operating margin was round about 10%. So, in cost periods you have been able to recover your margins. Where shall we seeing your long term non-GAAP operating margins to stay with provision extension and also recoveries?

Stephen Yang

Chief Financial Officer

Okay. In term of pricing, you know within fiscal year 2016 we use the difference applies strategy compared to year before last year. June – last June fiscal year 2016 we rollout our new O2O product especially for K-12 business. So we just want to take more market share. We just allow locals who have to increase the price by only 5% on our basis. But going forward what I mean in fiscal year 2017, I think we believe, we will use a little bit more aggressive pricing when it matters. Regarding the ASP for the K-12 business will increase by 5% to 8% in RMB term. And for the oversea test preps, we dominate the market, so in fiscal year 2017 we still increase the price by around 8% in RMP term. And for another one, for the oversea – for the domestic test preps and English we increase price by 5% to 8%. We are in fiscal year 2017. And this is my answer for first question. What is – okay the margin.

Wendy Huang

Analyst · Wendy Huang from Macquarie. Please ask your question

Margin, yeah.

Stephen Yang

Chief Financial Officer

Okay. You know, last year the fiscal year 2015 the op margin was 12.3%, this year we got 110 base up and our target for op margins is to get 17%, 18% in next three or four years. And if you recall the earnings call four quarters ago – our op margin will keep last in fiscal year 2016 then as a result we 110 base up. So next year few just on guide the op margin will slightly up. That's it.

Wendy Huang

Analyst · Wendy Huang from Macquarie. Please ask your question

Okay. I have just one housekeeping question on the headcount, so what was total headcount and also the number of features as of May and also what kind of percentage increase shall we expect for the FY 2017? Thank you.

Sisi Zhao

Management

Headcounts, you know, as you know end of May the total headcount is 36000 employees and the teachers is around 19,000. And based on our budget I think total headcount of next year will increase by 5% to 10%. This is a budget.

Wendy Huang

Analyst · Wendy Huang from Macquarie. Please ask your question

Okay. Thank you very much.

Sisi Zhao

Management

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Mariana Kou from CLSA. Please ask your question.

Mariana Kou

Analyst · Mariana Kou from CLSA. Please ask your question

Hi. Good evening management. Thanks for taking the question. I just have two quick questions. I think on the overseas test prep you mentioned the plan that ASP up slightly, could you actually help us understand a bit of the bottom view of this business in terms of total revenue, how we trending, I guess that would imply some comments on the volume? That's my first question. And the second question is just update on housekeeping as well. Lastly quarter I think there is jump in tax rate, could you actually share bit more color in terms of your tax outlook in the next 12 months? Thanks.

Sisi Zhao

Management

Okay. For the oversea test prep pricing, you know, going forward I think we will increase the price by 8% to 9% in RMP term year-over-year. And the student enrolment growth we'll keep flat. So we will get 8% to 10% revenue growth in RMB term for oversea test prep courses. And for the ETR this year the fiscal year 2016 our ETR is 14% and next year I think the ETR will be somewhere at 14.5%, because based on the tax structure some companies will lose the tax preference in the next year. So the tax rate will fairly move up, plus they were 14.5% or somewhere at 14% to 15%.

Mariana Kou

Analyst · Mariana Kou from CLSA. Please ask your question

Okay. So, we should just kind of think it by on a more full-year basis because you just look at Q4 year-on-year, I think there was quite significant increase in the effective tax rate, but I think we should just focus on --?

Stephen Yang

Chief Financial Officer

Yes. There still be. Yes.

Mariana Kou

Analyst · Mariana Kou from CLSA. Please ask your question

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Claire Cao from Morgan Stanley. Please ask your question.

Claire Cao

Analyst · Claire Cao from Morgan Stanley. Please ask your question

Good evening Stephen and Sisi and thanks for taking my questions. Just want to follow-up on the RMB 50 [ph] course. so I'm wondering what's the percentage of those course enrolment were contributed by English subjects and considering that the current enrolment number is pretty impressive at 200,000, I'm wondering how should we think about margin impact in the coming fiscal first quarter? Thanks.

Stephen Yang

Chief Financial Officer

Okay. There are lot of questions for the summer promotion classes. And I think, yeah, we gather 200,000 student enrolments for summer promotion classes and I think we'll get the 50% to 70% retention rate afterwards. So I think we will get 2% to 3% extra revenue growth from the summer class, what I mean, on the yearly basis. And in terms of the margin I think we will get negative impact for operating margin slightly in Q1 because the price is little low and we have to pay the teachers salary. But I think it will have a little bit positive impact for op margin for the whole year because of the potential higher retention rates. Is it clear first question?

Claire Cao

Analyst · Claire Cao from Morgan Stanley. Please ask your question

Yes. Thanks. Then how about the enrolment contribution from English subject?

Stephen Yang

Chief Financial Officer

Ultimately what I mean, the English enrolment within the U-Can were all the business line.

Claire Cao

Analyst · Claire Cao from Morgan Stanley. Please ask your question

Sorry, I mean for the low price courses this summer?

Stephen Yang

Chief Financial Officer

So, I don't have the numbers.

Unidentified Speaker

Analyst · Claire Cao from Morgan Stanley. Please ask your question

We don't disclose by subject details for the promotion numbers, but actually it should be come from all subjects and cities outside Beijing and Shanghai the promotion is mainly for math.

Claire Cao

Analyst · Claire Cao from Morgan Stanley. Please ask your question

Understood. Thanks.

Stephen Yang

Chief Financial Officer

Yes. So English subject, it should be below 30% or 25%.Most of the class are the [indiscernible] class

Claire Cao

Analyst · Claire Cao from Morgan Stanley. Please ask your question

Okay, thanks very helpful.

Stephen Yang

Chief Financial Officer

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we are now approaching to the end of the conference call. I will now turn the call over to New Oriental’s CFO, Mr. Stephen Yang for his closing remarks. Please go ahead sir.

Stephen Yang

Chief Financial Officer

Again, thank you for joining us today. If you have any further questions, please do not hesitate to contact me or any of our investor relations representatives. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our conference for today. Thank you all for participating. You may all disconnect the lines now.