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Emerald Holding, Inc. (EEX)

Q2 2019 Earnings Call· Sun, Aug 4, 2019

$5.05

+4.55%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Emerald Expositions' Second Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Philip Evans, Chief Financial Officer.Thank you, sir, please go ahead.

Philip Evans

Analyst

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate your participation today in our second quarter 2019 earnings call. I'm very pleased to have Sally Shankland, Emerald's President And Chief Executive Officer, with me here today. As a reminder, a replay of this call will be available on the Investors section of the company's website through 11:59 P.M. Eastern Time on August 8, 2019.Before we begin, let me remind everyone that this call may contain certain statements that constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These include remarks about future expectations, beliefs, estimates, plans and prospects. Such statements are subject to a variety of risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated or implied by such statements. Such risks and other factors are set forth in the company's most recently filed periodic reports on Form 10-K and Form 10-Q and subsequent filings. We do not undertake any duty to update such forward-looking statements. Additionally, during today's call we'll discuss non-GAAP measures, which we believe can be useful in evaluating our performance. The presentation of this additional information should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for results prepared in accordance with U.S. GAAP. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP measure can be found in our earnings release.Now I'll turn the call over to Sally.

Sally Shankland

Analyst

Thank you, Phil. I'm very excited to be here today and leading Emerald, given the significant opportunity that I see for our company, our customers, our employees and our shareholders.On today's call I'll briefly introduce myself, discuss what attracted me to Emerald, give my high-level perspective on the challenges and opportunities within our portfolio and detail certain initiatives we have begun to implement during my first 60 days. I'll then hand the call back to Phil to review our second quarter results and to provide an update on our larger third quarter shows. He will then outline our latest expectations for full year 2019 performance before turning the call back to me for concluding comments. We will then open up the call for your questions. Before I go any further, however, let me acknowledge my disappointment with our second quarter financial results and the updated full-year guidance. I will talk today about some of the immediate actions we have taken and others that we plan to take to address the problems I see in the business.While it may take some time to see the benefit of these actions reflected in improved financial performance, I am confident that we are already on a path that will return the business to profitable growth. With that said, let me introduce myself. I have spent the majority of my career at UBM, which is now part of Informa, a U.K.-based multinational events, academic publishing and business intelligence company. In the course of my 27-year tenure at UBM, I held a variety of senior leadership roles, including serving as Chief Executive Officer of UBM Americas from 2012 to 2015.While at UBM Americas, I ran a portfolio that was somewhat larger than Emerald's and successfully executed on an M&A strategy resulting in four acquisitions, including two…

Philip Evans

Analyst

Thank you, Sally. As Sally has outlined, we are in the midst of implementing a broad strategy designed to improve our execution, more effectively utilize data and technology, recruit experienced industry executives, focus the organization on creating value for our customers and improve Emerald's culture to the benefit of our employees. Having been more involved in the operational side of the business over the last nine months as we conducted our CEO search, I saw first-hand how some of our larger shows are handling the various issues we've discussed on prior calls. I'm confident that Sally's initiatives will directly address the core issues that have led to their underperformance and which are impacting our results and our full-year guidance.I'm also confident that our challenges are well within our control to solve and the strong competitive positioning of our shows is still intact. This morning I'm going to briefly review our financial results and spend the majority of my time reviewing our larger shows in the context of the steps we are quickly taking to stabilize their performance. Turning to our second quarter results, revenue increased by $24.6 million or 31.4% to $103.0 million compared to the year-ago quarter. This growth reflected a net $23.7 million addition from several show scheduling differences in the second quarter of 2019, most notably Outdoor Retail or Summer Market and GlobalShop, which both staged in the second quarter this year versus the third and first quarters of 2018, respectively. As a result, the second quarter is now our second-largest quarter of the year by revenue, with the first quarter still being the largest. The two acquisitions that we completed in the second half of last year contributed $3.6 million of revenues in the second quarter, while our organic revenues adjusted to reflect scheduling differences declined…

Sally Shankland

Analyst

Thank you, Phil. Our second quarter results and updated full-year guidance are undoubtedly disappointing and reflect the challenges that we currently face. That said, I am confident that through improved execution, new leadership and a renewed focus on our customers and on our employees, we can return Emerald to sustained organic growth. The U.S. trade show industry is expected to grow by a low-single-digit percentage in 2019 according to industry researchers, and the National Retail Federation has forecast 2019 retail sales will increase around 4%. So the market conditions are in place for us to grow if we can execute effectively. I feel very positively about the impact of the new hires that we were able to attract to the company and the new organizational structure that we've recently put into place.In my first 60 days, we've also made a solid start on changing how we operate the business. It will inevitably take time to see the effects of our initiatives and investments flow through into improved customer satisfaction and ROI, increasing attendance, increased renewal rates, growth in new revenue streams and overall organic-revenue growth. Directionally, I expect 2020 to be a year of operating improvement and increased customer satisfaction that will be rewarded in 2021 with a notable change in our organic revenue trajectory. Thank you again for your time today. Let me finish by saying that Emerald has a portfolio of industry-leading brands, strong financial characteristics and in my view, a clear path to sustainable organic growth in the future.Operator, please open the call for questions.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Ashish Sabadra with Deutsche Bank.

Ashish Sabadra

Analyst

My question was just around the turnaround. So thanks for providing a lot of details on the call and some color on what to expect for 2020 and 2021. But I was just wondering if you plan to put out like a midterm guidance and how quickly should we see the organic-growth improvement and margin expansion?

Sally Shankland

Analyst

So we have already begun the activities that will lead to improvement in our organic growth and in our performance. As you know, this is a business where righting the ship is time consuming because of the way the -- you have a disappointing show; it takes time to return that portfolio to growth. Very difficult for me to say right now that we know we will see the turnaround at X point in time in the future. What I can tell you is that we have a huge amount already in motion in our first 60 days -- in my first 60 days -- in terms of improving the way we operate the business, improving the way we plan and forecast the business, understanding our customers' perspectives and understanding what levers we need to pull in order to increase their satisfaction and their ROI and also with developing the tools we need to correctly identify what their pain points are and how we address them, and then using those already in our planning for future shows. So we have much more data than we've previously had, and we're using that to take action to improve our execution and our rigor with respect to planning and delivery of events.

Ashish Sabadra

Analyst

And then just a question on the value-based pricing that you mentioned. Have you had a chance to evaluate that with exhibitors, and what has been the reaction like? Any early reactions that you've seen? And maybe any kind of color that you can provide on how should we think about the value-based pricing and does that help drive better revenue-per-square feet. Any color on that front?

Sally Shankland

Analyst

Yes. I first instituted it approximately five years ago when I was at UBM. It's in use across most of the major exhibition companies, so exhibitors by and large are not unfamiliar with this concept. My experience, and the industry experience in general, is that it leads to increases in revenue and increases in customer satisfaction, and that is obviously a very powerful combination and something that we will be implementing over the coming periods of time. A lot of our pricing is set for 2020, so it will be second half 2020 that we can start to institute some of these programs. But both the quality of the data has improved, the impact it has on revenue and yield and the impact on customer satisfaction. Even for those whose pricing goes up is quite significant. So we usually see revenue growth pretty standard in the industry in the mid-single digits linked to value-based pricing and commensurate increases in customer satisfaction. And when you think about most industries, some version of this is in play, and certainly it's widely in play within the trade show industry.

Ashish Sabadra

Analyst

And maybe one final question, if I can, just around how do you plan to drive more exhibitors to the show. And maybe all the data initiatives that you've talked about will definitely help. But I was wondering if you're also planning to reach out to more exhibitors or essentially drive more exhibitors and get them to spend more at the show. Any color on that frame? Thanks.

Sally Shankland

Analyst

Yes, absolutely. So we are fortunate in that our renewal rate is actually quite good, so we have a good renewal rate on existing exhibitors. The challenge we face is in attracting new exhibitors, and the plan that we're already putting into place is better use of the marketing tech stack and better use of the sales tech stack to identify and convert potential exhibitors, so to generate leads and to then nurture those leads and convert them. Brian Field, the COO whom we've just brought into the business in June, has direct expertise and success in ventures of this nature across his career, so that's what is enabling us to move quickly on getting this done.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Manav Patnaik with Barclays.

Ryan Leonard

Analyst · Barclays.

Yes, this is Ryan Leonard on for Manav. Just a question on the visibility in the business. Obviously, at the time of the IPO, the visibility was obviously one of the points that I think was brought up a lot. On the first-quarter call, it seemed like there was a higher expectation for the second quarter results. I was wondering if you could just help us understand what changes in those 20-some-odd days that obviously went from low to mid-single-digit revenue growth expectations to what we saw in the quarter, what falls through in that short of amount of time for a business that historically has had very high renewal rates and visibility into the following years or the following quarters?

Philip Evans

Analyst · Barclays.

Thanks, Ryan. I'll start off and then I'm sure Sally will add to it. So we've always maintained we have pretty high visibility on the booth revenue components of our revenue, which is 70% plus or minus of our total revenues, and particularly one or two quarters out. What we have is less visibility on the non-booth revenues, particularly conferences and advertising and digital revenues, and then booth revenues further out in the year. So what's happened this year is that the second half booth revenues haven't developed as we expected, and the outlook for the non-booth revenues, particularly the advertising and digital revenues, is quite a bit softer than we thought. Most of this is -- the Q2 numbers were broadly in line with what we were expecting, a little softness in IRCE. But the shows were -- earlier in the year, we were still fairly early in the pacing for those shows. And ones that I've talked about in the comments earlier on Surf and CEDIA and our winter markets, those softened as we went through the year.And the publications and digital products, which we have much less visibility on, those have certainly softened in the second half of the year. So I think we do have generally good visibility, but there are certain revenue streams and certain shows further out that are kind of more difficult to predict.

Sally Shankland

Analyst · Barclays.

So what I would add to that, and I think it's a very important question and I completely understand how that would be surprising. And personally, I 100% agree that the results are unacceptable. I think there are a couple of factors here. One is that the past many years, the primary focus of the business has been on current-year bottom line. That has an inevitable lag effect on revenue that we see in any business. Those tend to be businesses with really good short-term success. But eventually, those chickens come home to roost. And I think that part of the reason the revenue for this year was down so disappointing in general and particularly disappointing now is the fact that we didn't expect this depression in our revenue to occur.And also, there hasn't been the rigor around -- within the business there hasn't been the rigor around forecasting. There's been a tendency to be optimistic and which then in turn, I think, leads to a lack of accountability. And we're in the process of fixing that right now. And finally, there was an effort to make some serious investments in the business. And what we're seeing right now is declining revenue with some relatively fixed investments. That's a short-term problem, and I believe fully that more rigor around our investments, taking those things that have ROI, investing in things that provide benefit across the portfolio horizontally will allow us to drive more ROI from our investments. And you will see both more accurate forecasting and a better cost control and management of expenses and more measurement of investments from us in the future.

Ryan Leonard

Analyst · Barclays.

And then on the Outdoor Retailer, can you maybe provide more color there? This is a show that at the time you talked about there was such demand for it. And now it seems like that has gone away. How exactly does something like that happen? Are there ways to schedule maybe smaller shows to start? I'm just surprised to see the demand has already kind of dried up that quickly.

Philip Evans

Analyst · Barclays.

Well, and I'll start because I have some of the background, and Sally, I'm sure, will contribute, too. So OR's historically had two very strong kind of almost tribal shows in January and summer -- well supported, vibrant shows. And the industry strongly indicated a desire for an earlier winter season show. And we listened to the industry, and that led to the introduction of our first winter show in November last year. It wasn't as well supported as we wanted, and that doesn't help when you have launches and you'd like to see some momentum. That said, some of the industry leaders showed support for the second event, which is this November. But we're still seeing it seems to be taking time for the industry to adopt this new show into the cycle. So we will continue to listen to the industry, work with the industry associations and come up with the best solution. But we've been disappointed, too, and it hasn't played out as we expected it to.

Ryan Leonard

Analyst · Barclays.

And one more, if I could sneak it in. Sally, coming in and taking a fresh look -- does this portfolio of events look right as currently constituted, or are there areas you think should be expanded on? Are there areas that should be maybe revisited and shrunk? Just kind of your initial take.

Sally Shankland

Analyst · Barclays.

Yes, it's hard to gauge that at this point, because the things we're doing that impact how the business operates benefit horizontally across the entire business. In addition, as you know, we've brought in new talent and created a new structure where, for example, all of our retail shows are together and where all of our design shows are together. And that structure in and of itself is going to benefit the -- all of the shows in that portfolio due to the opportunities that exist for collaboration and list sharing, cross-portfolio pricing models that are customer focused but also drive additional revenue for us. So I think we are generally in a great industry with a solid portfolio, and that every challenge we have is something that's in our control to fix.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes the line of Seth Weber with RBC Capital Markets.

Seth Weber

Analyst

I actually wanted to follow up on that last question. Sally, I think I heard you say your aim is to sort of accelerate new show launches and things like that. Can you just talk about whether you're changing your kind of return thresholds or the way you look at ROI on introducing new shows or how we should think about the cadence of new shows going forward relative to past? Thanks.

Sally Shankland

Analyst

That's a great question, Seth. Thank you. So my focus is really on saying where's the white space? And if we look at our markets collectively with joint knowledge across retail, with joint knowledge across design, it gives us an opportunity to identify the white spaces and the opportunities that are there. In addition, we are collecting a lot more data from both exhibitors and attendees that we can mine to know what they want that neither we nor anyone else is delivering right now. And with those two factors, it makes it a lot easier for us to create opportunities and launches which are often going to be in adjacencies rather than in something completely new and that we can then use to grow the business organically. I don't think they're necessarily super-high cost, for the very reason that they're being serviced by teams and the data that we are currently collecting.So that's -- I don't think we're going to go launch a show in artificial intelligence, for example, but it is certainly possible that we will do things within the white spaces we see in the markets we already serve in a forward-looking way. So not just what's happening in the market today, but understanding through better listening tools and through better social presence and through better sharing of information and collaboration and accountability and a more rigorous and standardized planning process, we are in a much better position to identify where there are opportunities for us to grow into adjacencies than we were previously.

Seth Weber

Analyst

And then I guess on the flip side of that, though, would you be more aggressive in exiting shows that are underperforming? Would you be more likely to act more quickly, do you feel like, going forward, than the company has been historically to kind of just take shows out of the rotation?

Sally Shankland

Analyst

Yes, I think that's an important question and one that I can't answer yet. But yes, as we develop our sort of longer-term strategic plan, that will be absolutely one of the things we're looking at. And as I said today, I think mostly we are in really good places, and we're doing things that will make all ships rise with the rising tide. But that does not mean that we're forever going to hold onto everything we have that maybe doesn't fit with directions we start moving in the future. So still TBD.

Seth Weber

Analyst

And then, I guess just a related question. The other marketing business continues to be soft. Is there -- is that core to the company going forward? Is that part of the go-forward framework for the company, or is there some decisions to be made there?

Sally Shankland

Analyst

So we really need to do a little bit more work about that. I think around that, I think it actually provides a huge opportunity for us because the content that we create has significant value to the rest of the shows we're producing. And one of the new people that I'm bringing in, one of the senior execs that I'm bringing in, is someone who has direct experience in growing for trade show companies their non-booth, nonconference space. So that, I think, provides us a real opportunity to look with rigor at how we harness these things better. Where can we grow revenue and profits beyond trade show booths? And obviously, OMS plays a role in that. So I can give you a specific example from the business, and I'm not going to name the customer or the part of the portfolio. But recently in one of our portfolios where we have both OMS and a show, we had a customer who was spending well in the OMS but decided not to take a booth at the show. And leveraging the market knowledge that we have through the OMS, we put together a package of experiential things that were not a booth and did not include a booth but that took place on the show floor.And instead of just selling them a booth, we sold them a couple hundred thousand dollars' worth of show experiences, so things that occurred at the show that were not a booth. And the fact that we had OMS associated with that show enabled us to do that. And that's exactly the kind of thing we want to do more of. Obviously, we still care about booth revenue; it's our primary source of revenue. But in a changing world, for us to be able to say, "Oh, you don't want to spend $30,000 on a booth? Here, spend a couple hundred thousand dollars on this instead." Now that doesn't play, obviously, with all of our customers; it only plays with our larger customers. But it's a really good way to leverage what we're doing in OMS. And I think bringing in somebody who will own that responsibility and do careful analysis of the OMS portfolio on how we use those assets will help us both return the portfolio to growth and may include some reemphasis in some areas other than -- more than others. But it gives us opportunity and that to me is a huge revenue stream available to us that we're not tapping today.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that was our final question, and this does conclude today's question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the floor back over to management for any closing remarks.

Sally Shankland

Analyst

So I just wanted to say that as I have acknowledged, I fully agree that the results are unacceptable. However, everything is in our control that needs to be fixed to return this business to growth. The industry is solid, retail sales are solid, we have a strong portfolio of shows, we have dedicated employees with deep market knowledge, and that gives us the foundation for success. I personally have the experience and the knowledge to lead these sorts of changes, as do people like Brian Field, who has joined us, and the other people who will be joining the team early in September.So I believe with great confidence that we can right this ship. We're focused, as I said, on execution and investment, on having the right team, on creating value for customers and improving our employee value proposition, because we believe that those things together provide us with the rigor, the discipline, the data, the tools, the people, and the strategy we need to turn this around. So thank you all for listening today, and I'm very excited about the future.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's teleconference. You may now disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation, and have a wonderful day.