Operator
Operator
Good day and welcome to the Equifax Third Quarter 2015 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Jeff Dodge. Please go ahead, sir.
Equifax Inc. (EFX)
Q3 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 22, 2015
$172.42
+1.08%
Same-Day
+2.65%
1 Week
+3.26%
1 Month
+7.50%
vs S&P
+5.65%
Operator
Operator
Good day and welcome to the Equifax Third Quarter 2015 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Jeff Dodge. Please go ahead, sir.
Jeffrey L. Dodge - Senior Vice President-Investor Relations
Management
Thanks and good morning, everyone. Welcome to today's conference call. I'm Jeff Dodge, Investor Relations. And with me today are Rick Smith, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and John Gamble, Chief Financial Officer. Today's call is being recorded. An archive of the recording will be available later today in the Investor Relations section in the About Equifax tab of our website at www.equifax.com. During this call, we will be making certain forward-looking statements to help you understand Equifax and its business environment. These statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties, and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations. Certain risk factors inherent in our core business are set forth in the filings with the SEC, including our 2014 Form 10-K and subsequent filings. During this call, we will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures including adjusted EPS attributable to Equifax and adjusted operating margin. It will be adjusted for certain items, which affect the comparability of the underlying operational performance. For the third quarter of 2015, adjusted EPS attributable to Equifax excluded acquisition-related amortization expense, income from the settlement of certain escrow amounts and an accrual for certain legal claims. Adjusted operating margin excludes the accrual for certain legal claims. In fourth quarter of 2015 and 2016, adjusted EPS attributable to Equifax will also exclude due diligence, transaction and integration cost related to the proposed acquisition of Veda Group. These non-GAAP measures are detailed in the reconciliation tables included with our earnings release and also posted on our website. Also please refer to our various investor presentations, which are posted in the Investor Relations section of our website for further details. Now, I'd like to turn it over to Rick. Richard F. Smith - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Thanks, Jeff. Good morning,…
Operator
Operator
Thank you. And we'll go first to David Togut from Evercore ISI.
David Mark Togut - Evercore ISI Institutional Equities
Management
Thank you. Good morning, Rick, John and Jeff. Richard F. Smith - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Hi, David.
David Mark Togut - Evercore ISI Institutional Equities
Management
Rick, if I've heard you correctly, you've made a pretty compelling case for higher growth than you've laid out in your mid-term target. I mean, for example, NPI record pipeline, getting a lot of traction with EGI, Workforce Solutions performing above the plan, great traction internationally porting products from U.S., turned around the PSOL business. And it looks like you're on the verge of what looks to be a very accretive acquisition of Veda, at least by our calculations. So am I hearing you correctly? And, if so, how do you think about sort of the mid to long-term organic growth prospects of the business based on the hand of cards that you're looking at now? Richard F. Smith - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Well, thank you for, what I think is a complement to the team. I think you captured that effectively, David. The performance you're seeing in 2013, 2014, 2015 and kind of the early looks of 2016 is a result of the last 10 years of effort of laying a foundation of culture of talent and processes like EGI, NPI and others, and we're now the benefactors of that. The performance continues to be very, very broad-based across many verticals, many countries, many products. And I feel very good, very good, as I sit here today looking out to 2016 that the growth for 2016 will also be good, as I mentioned. And we're assuming, David, in that 2016 early look, GDP growths in the economies we participate in to be relatively in line with what we're seeing this year, which is modest in the struggling economies in South America, modest growth in GDP in UK, Canada, in U.S., in the 2%, 2.5% range. So we're not expecting significant GDP or market-based improvement. As you look at longer-term, to the heart of your question, 2017, 2018, yeah, I hope eventually we do see some rebounding, some help from the economies we operate in, which would be further wind at our back.
David Mark Togut - Evercore ISI Institutional Equities
Management
Got it. And then perhaps just expand a little bit, if you would, on PSOL's growth prospects. You've pivoted in the premium channel, you picked up some nice growth there, turned that business around. What you see longer term in the premium channel for Equifax? How can you capitalize on this high-growth channel long term? Richard F. Smith - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah, I think Trey, now Assad, the interim leader, and as you saw the announcements two weeks ago, Dann Adams will take that business over. I think they've done hell of a job, especially when you compare it to the market as a whole, it's changed at such a rapid pace. I think we'll all agree the free market is here to stay. But we're also of the view, after a lot of work, David, with outside consultants, there always be a place for the paid products that we offer. And we've done a number of interviews through third-party consultants that talk to consumers. And a big cross-section of that consumer base wants to and will buy the pay-for products. Having said that, free is here to stay. It's carved out a nice piece. We're winning, as you know, in the free channel right now through our USIS business, with Trey in his old job. I had a heavy hand working with Rudy on devising a strategy for the Credit Karmas and others in that arena. So simply said, I see the free business is here to stay. I'm convinced the core business can grow in the mid-single digits, with upper 20% margin. I'm convinced our indirect business has got good growth prospects for the next couple years. And lastly, I'm convinced that our International presence will continue to grow stronger.
David Mark Togut - Evercore ISI Institutional Equities
Management
Understood. Congratulations. Richard F. Smith - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you, David.
Operator
Operator
And we'll go next to Manav Patnaik from Barclays.
Manav Shiv Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc.
Management
Yeah, hi. Good morning, gentlemen. Congratulations on the quarter. And obviously, it seems like a lot of your initiatives are working. The first question I had, Rick, was – and I think I've asked this many times before is you've talked about your NPI and now, I guess, EGI doing a lot better than last year and probably above your expectations. I guess, can you give us some color, how do you keep delivering these impressive results? And does that 10% NPI number you had before need to go up now to maintain this level of excellence? Richard F. Smith - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Well, thank you, Manav. Truly, we've got a great team. They believe in the culture of growth. They believe in the culture of helping our customers and consumers by building new solutions we couldn't build yesterday. And we've got the great data assets. We've invested in the Foundation, things like (35:15) You've heard me talk about that. Manav, you too talked about people who see it, everyone understands the importance of innovation. Our industry is by itself not a high-growth industry. And our team wants to be a part of a high-growth company and the way for us organically to get there is through innovation. And NPI and EGI are such a vital part of who we are and how we think, it's here to stay. We'll continue to always take a step back and refresh our thinking, re-energize ourselves, modify the approach, expand the approach. We're now 10 years into NPI and probably three years into EGI and those initiatives have got to be refreshed periodically to make sure that they're contemporary and thoughtful and the team is engaged. But as long as I'm going to be here, Manav, we're going to continue to strive for 10%-plus Vitality Index, because it's healthy.
Manav Shiv Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc.
Management
Okay. And then just one follow-up on Veda. Clearly, sounds like a good deal. It's a public company. I guess what I was trying to get is, in your diligence, are there a couple of key things that you guys really need to get at, or is this just making sure you're checking the boxes? Richard F. Smith - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yes, there are obviously. And by no means would I ever go into a diligence process spending any amount of money, let alone $1.7 billion, $1.8 billion, with a mindset that is check the box. We take acquisitions extremely seriously, thoughtfully. And I would prefer not to disclose the exact list of diligence items that we have highlighted. But, trust me, it will be thorough diligence. We're in the data room now. Teams will be in the country in a week. And we have a very thoughtful, exhaustive list of questions that the board and I along with the business unit leaders and COE leaders have thoroughly vetted. So thorough diligence, nowhere close to a perfunctory check the box.
Manav Shiv Patnaik - Barclays Capital, Inc.
Management
All right. Fair enough. Good luck with that. Thanks, guys. Richard F. Smith - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you.
Operator
Operator
And we'll take our next question from Andre Benjamin from Goldman Sachs. Andre Benjamin - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Thank you. Good morning. Richard F. Smith - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning. Andre Benjamin - Goldman Sachs & Co.: I first wanted to ask, could you maybe provide a little more insight into how, one, we should be thinking about the magnitude of the contribution from the partnership with Fannie Mae as we do think about our 2016 models for next year? And, two, we've heard a lot of companies looking more at trended data generally. And so maybe you could talk a bit about how you've seen demand for that product evolve and then we should think about it over the medium-term to contribute to growth.
Jeffrey L. Dodge - Senior Vice President-Investor Relations
Management
Okay. (38:05). The Fannie Mae one, I think it's a great one. It's a great one for consumers, it's a great one for the underwriters and it's going to be a great one for our business units of USIS and EWS. As I mentioned, I think, in my comments earlier on, we expect that to ramp up probably in late second quarter, early third quarter. Some work we've got to do, some building we've got to fine-tune to bring that to market for Fannie Mae. And it will be meaningful impact for the business units next year. I am not going to give you exact number, but trust, it will be meaningful for us at BU level. Two, if you think of trended data in general terms, I think, maybe two years ago, we started talking to you about trended data and there was an interest in getting a historical look versus a snapshot look. And the first thing we did is, built the capabilities for batch offline, we call it internally CMS. That ramped up nicely. We then through a technology investment we made in USIS and Rick Smith brought that capability to go online and that's now I think up nicely. I'm also very, very intrigued with the concept on trended data, bringing that – we're looking at right now, there is a technology requirement as well, we're bringing to EWS the concept of taking one of many different attributes we have in The Work Number database, that attribute being income and showing an underwriter or marketeer, whoever, a historical look, a trended look at their income intellectually excites myself and the team. So as I think of trended data, that will be a next evolution that we'll invest in as bringing trended data towards verification of income. Andre Benjamin - Goldman Sachs & Co.: And one follow-up. I wanted to make sure I heard something right in the prepared remarks. I thought I heard you say that new product pipeline over the next three years will contribute 50% of 2014 level. I want to make sure I heard that right. And if so, how should we actually interpret that in terms of the revenue and growth in 2017 versus 2014? Richard F. Smith - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah, I believe the comments I made – I can check my notes here. Well, the USIS NPI pipeline is running at a rate of 50% greater than the pipeline we had in 2014, so that revenue that we'll earn out in USIS over the next three years is up 50% over the pipeline from 2014. Andre Benjamin - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Got it. Thank you for clarifying. Richard F. Smith - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Sure. Thanks.
Operator
Operator
And we'll take our next question from Paul Ginocchio from Deutsche Bank.
Paul L. Ginocchio - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.
Management
Thanks for taking my question. Rick, the 700 clients you've signed for the ACA compliance platform, I know the revenue hasn't started, but can you – any way to help us size that for 2016 as you roll in? And then second, your International margins, I know you said they'll be up in 2016. They look as high as 20% – almost 29% a few years ago. Is there anything different with the International business today that would keep you from getting back to those numbers and how many years do you think it takes to get back there? Thanks.
Jeffrey L. Dodge - Senior Vice President-Investor Relations
Management
Thank you, Paul. I think I've tried to give some color and text around ACA on past earnings calls. One, the caveat I'll give you is, we've always said it will be very meaningful for EWS, very meaningful, and it exceeds my expectations. So far beyond the expectations we had a year ago, John mentioned, I mentioned, over 700 plus accounts, strong interest level already brewing for 2016. If you follow the ACA dynamics to – in the level of fines and how those increased over the years and the appeal process, that's going to have a tail that's for many years, as we sit here today and look out. Secondly, and I alluded to it, is getting into this ACA, it can open up other doors and avenues of opportunity we didn't thought about yet, and then the IRS, appeals process, so on and so forth. So I'm not going to give you a number, Paul, but it is meaningful. And very, very – very important to us long-term, and, again, I think that I mentioned in my comments, probably the most impactful, largest, meaningful NPI we had in my 10 years here. As far as margins on International, yes, I clearly see 2015 is being the trough, if you will, on margins that was intentional. We are integrating a big acquisition for that BU, investing heavily in the UK business unit, the UK government opportunity we talked about. We're also, as John alluded to in our comments, investing heavily in technology, in analytics and platforms around the International operations to fuel growth short-, medium- and long-term. So we clearly expect 2015 to be the trough and margins to start to ramp up nicely in 2016 and beyond. Will they get back to 29%? There's one caveat for that. I think they can over time. I can't tell you what period of time, is the team is working diligently now to regionalize big pockets of costs within International and that requires technology investments to take things from countries to regions and so on and so forth. That will be a big benefactor. If we are fortunate enough to close the acquisition of Veda, we clearly expect that on EBITDA margin basis, that also be a nice lift to the EBITDA margins of International. John W. Gamble - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President: Excluding Veda, right, as Jeff – I think Jeff was taking you through model for International long-term. In mid-term, what we said is mid-20%s is where we are expecting the margins to end up. Yeah.
Paul L. Ginocchio - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.
Management
Thank you.
Operator
Operator
And we'll go next to Andrew Steinerman from JPMorgan.
Andrew Charles Steinerman - JPMorgan Securities LLC
Management
Hi. Rick, I wanted to ask you about peer-to-peer lenders, this was a subject that came up recently when I hosted a industry research conference call with the outsell. And I just wanted to know when you look at these peer-to-peer lenders, I know they are using Equifax products today, but I wanted to look further out, do you think these peer-to-peer lending systems will lead to an increase of demand of Equifax products or decrease when it comes to peer-to-peer lenders? Richard F. Smith - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. Thank you, Andrew. That's a good question. We spend a lot of time thinking about that strategically. And many do refer to that ecosystem as evolving as you have is peer-to-peer. I'd like to think of as more kind of remote lending, unsecured remote lending rather than peer-to-peer because it tend to be a bank involved in many cases, if you're looking at Lending Club or GreenSky or Biz2Credit or others. Point one, I think that that is a marketplace that will exist. I think it – disrupt the marketplace for the traditional banking sector, the banks now choose to participate themselves. But I think it's here to stay. I think it's got good momentum, good legs. As you mentioned before, they are a user of our data today. They use both the verification of employment and income database many times as well as the core credit file and credit scores. We expect that to continue going forward. So right now I view that as being yet another – if that sector can allow maybe other people to get access to credit who couldn't get credit in normal system, it's incremental to us. If it's just displacement, the bank would underwrite today, I see it as a non-event for us. The bigger question we're thinking about strategically is how else can we play in that ecosystem. That is truly in five years, 10 years is a big robust part of the market, how do we participate in that market? And that's something we're kicking around right now.
Andrew Charles Steinerman - JPMorgan Securities LLC
Management
Okay. Thank you. Richard F. Smith - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you.
Operator
Operator
And we'll take our next question from Gary Bisbee with RBC Capital Markets.
Gary E. Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC
Management
Hey, guys. Good morning. On the Workforce Solution business, I guess, I wondered if you could give us some color on how much of a drag on margins the ACA compliance offering revenues being deferred, but yet you footing the bill for sales and onboarding customers, et cetera. Is this a big drag and would you expect that investment sort of flattens out at the same time revenue comes and that really helps margins starting Jan 1? Richard F. Smith - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah, you don't really see like (46:40) said, one, it is important to put that in context with the profile and the path that Workforce Solutions has been on. It has been remarkable in terms of all dimensions, in my opinion, especially margin. I think John mentioned, the margins are up 350 basis points in the quarter. In spite of what you're talking about, kind of investing in ACA standing up with revenue being a subscription model which is earned out over a period of time. Secondly, and more importantly is, John alluded to in his prepared comments that this business is on a path to 40%-plus margins. And so I think if we put it in context from where it's come from, where it's going, the incremental impact, drag or otherwise of ACA is enough that (47:30). John, do you want to add to that? John W. Gamble - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President: That was – it's very small, right, because, as you know, you defer expense with revenue, right? So it's just very small negative impact on margin. But again, should be accretive to both revenue and margins in 2016.
Gary E. Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC
Management
Okay. Great. And then just to help us frame your commentary on 2016, I know you have not – have declined to break out the total revenue impact from – or your estimate from the mortgage market activity. But is it safe to say that in 2015 year-to-date the core – as you used to call it, the core revenue ex-mortgage market changes would be growing in excess to the high-end of the 8% organic growth. And I guess if that's right, are there any headwinds we should think about as to why that might flow somewhat next year outside of mortgage? Or should we just think that the initial commentary is early and possibly somewhat conservative? Thanks. Richard F. Smith - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Let me correct that, and John, will jump in. As you think about 2015, I won't to 2016. There's a lot of numbers out there on the NPI Index, growing, I think, Jeff, roughly 17% in 2015. And as it has been in the past for us, you should expect and we are delivering performance that is greater than the index. John Gamble mentioned that the expectations as we sit here today in mid-October looking at 2016, is that market will be relatively flat and that might mean 2 points, 3 points, 4 points, 5 points down, a couple of points up, in that flattish range for 2016. So as we gave an early look at revenue of 6% to 8% organically next year it is with the expectation of the mortgage being in that range and, once again, our team, that being EWS and USIS, performing at levels greater than that by market penetration and new product introduction in the mortgage market. So that's how we think about 2016. John, do you want to add to that? John W. Gamble - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President: No. As Rick indicated right, we just guided fourth quarter as well as next year at the very high-end of our long-term growth rate, so up towards the 8%. And in both of those cases, we've indicated we expect mortgage to be flat or down with the market. So I think that should cover most of the question right there. Richard F. Smith - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Thanks.
Gary E. Bisbee - RBC Capital Markets LLC
Management
Okay. Thank you. Richard F. Smith - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Sure.
Operator
Operator
And we'll take our next question from Shlomo Rosenbaum from Stifel. Shlomo Rosenbaum - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Hi. Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. Hey, Rick, I just wanted to know if you wanted to comment a little bit more on Veda. That company is doing very well. It actually looks more like a mini Equifax. And you touched on it a little bit in your comments. I wanted to know if you could maybe expand a little bit on this. What is it that you bring to them and what is it that they bring to you beyond the geographic diversification? Richard F. Smith - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Great. Thank you, Shlomo. One note is, Shlomo, we've known each other now for a number of years and you know our philosophy on acquisitions, so this won't surprise maybe the rest of you or you. We have been talking with Veda now, boy, it dates back maybe four years. So it's not like this thing just dropped out of the sky one day and we said this is going to be an interesting acquisition. It's been an organization that we're trying to get to know each other for a quite some time. Two, philosophically, it's important to know that when we think of acquisitions, in Equifax, we are driven by a view of what we can bring to that company that makes that company even better rather than what does that company bring to us that makes Equifax better. I think studies will show, and there's been many studies with many consultants, when you take the path of how they help you as a core business, you oftentimes fail. So having said that, other than the geographical footprint, I think what we can bring…
Operator
Operator
And we'll take our next question from Bill Warmington with Wells Fargo.
William A. Warmington - Wells Fargo Securities LLC
Management
Good morning, everyone. Richard F. Smith - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning, Bill.
William A. Warmington - Wells Fargo Securities LLC
Management
So one follow-up question for you on Veda. You mentioned you've been talking with Veda for four years. So my question is why now? Why Australia? Why now? Richard F. Smith - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: I think it's a great question. I think, as we've got to know the company more in-depth over the past few years, we're little more comfortable. Two, I think it's an opportunistic time as well and, Bill, there has been some articles written, maybe you probably read them. By the way, I think Manav had a very good write up, that's worth reading as well. The Australian stock market has obviously taken a beating. Foreign exchange has gone from roughly $1.1, $1-point-something to A$1, to $0.68 to $0.72, $0.73 to A$1. There is the legislation that is passed into law (57:02) from just using negative data to positive data and I think you understand there's been studies all over the world by the IMS and others that talk about how that catalyzes risk-based pricing, risk-based pricing catalyzes growth of lending, that maybe a multi-year look that's going to happen eventually. So maybe last point is we bought TDX roughly two years ago and we delevered from TDX, we've integrated TDX successfully to the balance sheet, our human capital preparedness is in a position to capitalize on a big acquisition. So all of those things kind of came together at the right time.
William A. Warmington - Wells Fargo Securities LLC
Management
Perfect. And then a follow-up for John on Employer Services. Just trying to understand the timeline of the contract in terms of the ACA compliance analytics work, how many months you're looking at typically for implementation during which you're deferring and then typically the length of the contract over which you're going to recognize the revenue? John W. Gamble - Chief Financial Officer & Vice President: Yes. So the implementation can happen over one quarter to two quarters generally speaking. And then you're looking at contracts that are often times a year but can be longer than a year, right? So generally, probably, rarely shorter than a year and rarely probably longer than three years, but predominantly closer to a year.
William A. Warmington - Wells Fargo Securities LLC
Management
Great. Thank you very much. Richard F. Smith - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you, Bill.
Jeffrey L. Dodge - Senior Vice President-Investor Relations
Management
With that, I think we will conclude the call. Appreciate everybody's time and support. Have a good day. Thanks.
Operator
Operator
This does conclude today's conference. We thank you for your participation.