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Eldorado Gold Corporation (EGO)

Q3 2021 Earnings Call· Fri, Oct 29, 2021

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Thank you for standing by. This is the conference Operator. Welcome to the Eldorado Gold Corporation Q3 2021 Financial and Operational Results conference call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode and the conference is being recorded. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator Instructions]. I would now like to turn the conference over to Lisa Wilkinson, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Ms. Wilkinson.

Lisa Wilkinson

Analyst

Thank you, operator. And good morning, everyone. I would like to welcome you to our Third Quarter, 2021 Conference Call. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that we will be making forward-looking statements during the call. Please refer to the cautionary statements included in the presentation, as well as the risk factors set out in our annual information forum. Joining me on the call today, we have George Burns, President and Chief Executive Officer, Philip Yee, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Joe Dick, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, and Jason Show, Executive Vice President and Chief Strategy Officer. Our release yesterday details our 2021 Third Quarter financial and operating results. These should be read in conjunction with our Third Quarter financial statements and management's discussion and analysis, both of which are available on our website. We've also been filed on SEDAR and EDGAR. All dollar figures discussed today are U.S. dollars, unless otherwise stated. We will be speaking to the slides that accompany this webcast. You can download a copy of these slides from our website. After the prepared remarks, we will open the call for Q&A. At this time, we will invite analysts to queue for questions. I will now turn the call over to George.

George Burns

Analyst

Thanks, Lisa. And good day, everyone. Here is the outline for today's call. I'll provide a brief overview of Q3 results and highlights before passing it to fill to go through the financials. Joe will follow by reviewing operational performance and then we will open it up for questions from analysts. I'm very pleased with our third quarter results. Production in Q3 was 8% higher than last quarter based on strong production and kiss it up. And we have increased our full-year 2021 production guidance by approximately 6% to 460,000 to 480,000 ounces, up from 430,000 to 460,000 ounces previously. We are working through our budgets right now and we are comfortable with our 2022 production guidance range, which takes into account commissioning of the HPGR in Q4. We will update the market on 2022 guidance in the New Year. Joe will speak more about our operational performance later in the call. I'm very proud of the operational teams for working safely and effectively to achieve robust production in the first 9 months of the year. Specifically, I would like to congratulate Kisladag team for delivering strong production year-to-date and successfully completing several operational improvements at the mine. During the quarter, we refinanced our senior secured notes. Phil will speak to this later in the call. Not only were we able to lower the cost of debt, but certain Eldorado subsidiaries in Greece were removed as guarantors, which will allow us to pursue a broader range of funding alternatives for the development of the Kassandra assets. We continue to see strong support in Greece for the Skouries project. The support from the Greek government has allowed us to sign an amended investment agreement and obtain the approval for dry-stack tailings permit early in the year. We're also seeing strong interest…

Philip Yee

Analyst

Thank you, George. Good day, everyone. Starting with Slide 4, we had another strong quarter of operational results. Production at Kisladag was higher than planned, which led us to revise and increase on our 2021 production guidance by 6%. Our costs remain in line with our 2021 annual guidance. Revenues were consistent with plan and expectations, supported by strong sales at an average realized gold price of $1769 per ounce. Free cash flow was $29 million in the quarter, and we are forecasting continued free cash flow generation through to the remainder of the year. Eldorado reported net earnings attributable to shareholders from continuing operations in Q3, 2021, of $8.5 million or $0.05 per share compared to net earnings attributable to shareholders of $46 million or 26% per share in the third quarter of 2020. After adjusting for onetime non-recurring items, including 31 million of financing costs related to the debt refinancing in Q3, among other things, adjusted net earnings, attributable to shareholders for Q3, 2021 increased to 40 million or $0.22 per share, up from 29.3 million or $0.16 per share last quarter. Cash operating costs in Q3 2021, averaged $646 per ounce sold, an increase from $537 per ounce in Q3 2020, the increase was primarily due to lower grade ore mined and processed at Kisladag and Lamaque, resulting in fewer ounces produced and sold, compared to Q3 of 2020. These increases were partially offset by modest reduction in cash operating cost per ounce sold at Olympias as a result of higher grades, combined with higher silver and base metal sales, which reduced cash operating costs as a byproduct credit. All-in sustaining costs per ounce sold average $1,133 per ounce in Q3, 2021, an increase from $918 per ounce in Q3 2020, primarily due to the increase in…

Joseph Dick

Analyst

Thanks Phil and good day, everyone. I'd like to start by highlighting an important health and safety milestone for operations. In September, we achieved a triple zero month with no recordable incidents in three key areas. Medical treatment, modified work, and lost time. This is the first time we have reported a triple zero month since 2012, and I'm extremely proud of the team for this accomplishment. We produced 125,459 ounces of gold in the third quarter, an 8% increase from Q2 production of 116,066 ounces. Our third quarter operating performance continued to be strong. And as George mentioned, we have increased our 2021 production guidance range to between 460 and 480,000 ounces of gold up from between 430 and 460,000 ounces of gold. This is driven by stronger than planned performance at Kisladag. We remain focused on disciplined capital allocation across our operations. Specifically, we have been looking at the capital allocation more closely at our Kassandra mines in Greece as our transformation efforts continue to progress. As a result, we expect both sustaining and growth capital expenditures to be at the low end of guidance range for the year. Slide 7 looks at our operations in more detail. Starting in Turkey with Kisladag, our third quarter gold production totaled 51,040 ounces, a 16% increase over the last quarter. Cash operating costs were $612 per ounce. We achieved increased throughput at Kisladag in the third quarter related to several operational improvements that were implemented in the mine, leach pad, solution handling, and carbon regeneration earlier this year. The commissioning of the high-pressure grinding roll circuit is underway and nearing completion. We expect the HPGR to increase gold recovery by approximately 4% and enhance the already positive results achieved from the CIC trains and the new carbon regeneration kiln completed…

George Burns

Analyst

Thanks, Phil and Joe. With continued strong operational results, a solid financial position, and numerous upcoming catalysts, Eldorado remains well-positioned to provide additional growth and value creation. Thank you for your time. We'll now turn it over to the Operator for questions.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operators Instructions] We will pause for a moment as callers join the queue. The first question comes from Cosmos Chiu with CIBC. Please, go ahead.

Cosmos Chiu

Analyst

Hi, thanks, George, Phil, Joe, and team. Thanks for the call and good to see that you've increased your production guidance for the year. Maybe my first question is on cost pressures in the industry and inflation. George, as you mentioned, you haven't seen -- you haven't really been impacted yet. However, clearly, when I go to grocery store, when I go in the costs are higher. So, in that case, George, as you said, you're working through your budget for 2022 right now. And as Joe mentioned, the feasibility study for Skouries is being finalized. Anything you can share with us in terms of how you're looking at it? How are you factoring in, maybe not so much what has happened so far, but as you foresee, next year, are you forecasting any kind of cost pressure into your forecasts, into your budget, into your Skouries technical report, anything that you can share with us?

George Burns

Analyst

Cosmos, thanks for the question. Yes, in a detailed level, for sure. There are some cost pressures that we're recognizing. Cost of steel is up. And when you look at our business, we got grinding media, we have wear materials on all of our equipment that we have to replace periodically. And so, if you looked at that particular item, there's definitely some cost pressure, and we'll anticipate that as we look at budgets in our longer-term plans. And when you talk about Skouries, one of the nice things about the project is the main part -- body of the plants constructed. So, we have lots of wiring and a building to put up. Much of the remaining construction materials from a steel perspective are on the ground. The exception would be the filter for dry stack tailings. We need to purchase the filters, we need to purchase the building materials, and there's definitely going to be some cost pressure just due to the cost of steel. So that's a specific example. The energy costs are up globally around the planet, and we're seeing some pressure on our fuel cost. But in the end, when we look at our overall cost structure, so if you looked at mining and processing, quarter-over-quarter this year, our spend is not up which tells us refining other areas of improvement that are counteracting so far, the impact from inflationary things, like steel and fuel. So bottom-line for us, that's a fact. And if you look at Q3, I think we've seen some comments about yeah, productions up, but we haven't changed our guidance or outlook on the year on our unit costs. A couple of things I mentioned there, 1, when you look at Lamaque, Lamaque's going to have a stronger fourth quarter. And…

Cosmos Chiu

Analyst

Great. Thanks, George. I'll maybe dive deeper into the operations at Kisladag. The HPGRs are -- HPRG is almost completed, commissioning in November 2021. But as you mentioned in the MD&A, the impact on production sounds like there's going to be some down days in Q1 2022. Can you Walk me through that? Is it the impact -- are we talking about days or weeks, and why is the impact in Q1? And then, as Joe mentioned, 4% increase in recovery, is that 4% increase going to come over time? How long is that going to take in terms of improving on that recovery?

George Burns

Analyst

Maybe I'll speak high level to the impact of HPGR, and Joe can talk a little bit about the commissioning detail that might bring some clarity here. Where I'd start is that, when you look at the new Kisladag, our lead cycle from historic, the first decade and a half of operations, we had roughly a 90-day lead cycle and we got roughly 60% recovery. Looking forward with the new Kisladag, we're getting, with the HPGR, around 56% recovery, but we get that goal over a one-year period. So, it's a much slower lead cycle in the bottom part of this deposit. And that's what all the drilling and network we did over the last couple of years led us to these conclusions in a robust mine plan. So, this year, our productions is doing better than planned largely driven by tonnage, but the recoveries are as expected. So, this is good news for us. So, in terms of the detail, when you think about alright, we were at the beginning of the year expecting to be in commissioning in the third quarter, and that's slipped a little bit to the fourth-quarter. First thing I'd say is that's not too bad when you look at the impact COVID 's had on the planet. We've delivered a number of projects across our portfolio and dominantly Kisladag on budget and on schedule. And so, the HPGR is on budget. There was a slight slip in schedule due to delivery, but to me that's not bad news and the impact on production over 2021 and 2022, there is no impact. We've put that into our plan. So, there's a slight shift quarter-over-quarter, but it's a 1-year lease cycle. So yes, the impact will begin late Q4 and into next year, in terms of the downtime required to connect the HPGR and commission it. But overall, there's no negative impact here. We had a great year at Kisladag so far. We're going to finish strong. we're beating our guidance and we're set up to deliver what we promise for 2022. So high level, this is all positive. And maybe Joe can give a little color around the commission in detail.

Joseph Dick

Analyst

Thanks, George. Any impacts due to commissioning were when we took the circuit offline to tie in or switchover to the HPGR, which started in early October and ended in later October. And that's when we weren't placing tons. And it's the timing of when those tons we didn't place shows up is where we'll see impact in production. As George said, that's just a matter of the schedule moving, not a change. So, it goes a little later. As far as overall recoveries, we are in wet commissioning on the HPGR now, and we're running a series of metallurgical tests as we go. We set up a portion on the south heap leach pad, on clean plastic to test various size fractions, various potential agglomeration tests. Other things to kind of dial in over the next couple of months as we bring the HPGR online, we want to do a lot of call it metallurgical framing so that we see which recipes work the best. And then we transfer all of that knowledge when we go on to the north heap leach pad mid-year next year. So, this time period of placement now gives us the information of how we want to start that new pad. And I don't think George [Indiscernible]. We're also separating the solutions from new pads. So, any of the solution issues we talked about in the past of solution contamination or complex solutions. We start clean on the north leach pad with the best metallurgical data that we can gather over the next 6 months in early placement, And we will be doing all of that in column proxies as well as pad as we go. So, we're pretty optimistic Cosmos that we'll dial that recovery in over the first six months. And as George said, we dial up the production from mine through the whole circuit, highly likely that we'll see more tons placed in 2022 than 2021.

Cosmos Chiu

Analyst

Great, thanks Joe. It's good that you brought up the North leach pad. It sounds like it is on track, which is good as well. I would imagine, as we talked about recovery at Kisladag, part of the impact on recovery is the current leach pads are getting pretty high. Could you remind us how high are the current leach pads right now? And to be honest, it's been a while since I've been to Kisladag. It's been a while since I've been to anywhere, to be honest. Can you remind us at some point in time you're going to start stocking at the North leach pad mid-2022. Is there at some point where all the stocking will be at the North leach pad or how's that going to look?

Joseph Dick

Analyst

[Indiscernible] the more leach pad better look next year but there may be instances where we still use the south. As you recall, Cosmos, we put in inner lift miners on the south leach pad, so we are -- I don't have the numbers right in front of me, basically, second lift off of the inner lift liner that was replaced or there was placed because we were so high. So, we have the opportunity after we stopped placing there to go not only clean up the inventory of maybe interconnecting, but also below. So, we can pierce that liner, we can do lots of things to take any residual inventory from the south leach pad over time. Did I answer your question, because I don't know, but I think it lifts above the inner lift at present across the whole pad.

Cosmos Chiu

Analyst

Okay. Sounds good. And then maybe one last question for Phil. With the refinancing of the debt, it sounds like you're going to have different alternatives that will be open to you as a result of some of the Greek assets now not connected to the new debt. Phil, I guess two questions. Number one, could you maybe give us, I don't know if you can, give us an example of like an alternative that wouldn't have been possible in the past. And number two, as we heard, the Skouries feasibility study, or the new technical reports coming out in Q4, in terms of timing for finding a partner or some -- looking at financing options, are we still looking at Q1 - ish 2022 for -- to get a bit more clarity to get a final agreement or is that not the case?

Philip Yee

Analyst

Hi Cosmos. Good question. I think the key here with the refinancing, timing-wise, it was part of the strategy really geared towards de -risking our strategy towards the Greek assets. And I think overall there is -- we continue to look at all different alternatives that are available to us. We've talked in the past for financing as carriers, we've talked in the past about potential JV partners. It's more of a strategic view on that, having a partner alongside Eldorado that would be potentially beneficial moving forward. It is a multi-decade project. And we've talked in the past, potentially, for example, that an example of that would be the EBRD which we've talked with for quite a while. There are other alternatives as well. I mean, where, I think other alternatives that have come to light. There's Greece has been approved for European Union COVID relief funding, for example. Some of the financial institutions in Europe and Greece are also interested as well, so we're looking at all different avenues. We will want to make sure that we've considered all of them, and then we'll make the -- we'll make a choice as to which fits the strategy for the extender assets going forward, and which is the best solution for Eldorado and the shareholders.

George Burns

Analyst

I might supplement that Cosmos from my perspective, you've got -- on the one hand as Phil said, we've solidified our Balance Sheet. We've set up our debt. and our revolver in relationship with our new bank syndicate in a way that we have lots more flexibility. And really the last deliverable that we're completely in control of is getting that feasibility study out. That's on track to come out and be completed in November. And that really sets the stage for us to pursue all these various alternatives and land on something. So, we're still aggressively targeting a solution in Q1, but it's a negotiation and we're trying to make the best decision for the corporation in terms of that financing, and so full-speed ahead, we're on track with our objectives.

Jason Cho

Analyst

And Cosmos, it's Jason. The other thing --

Cosmos Chiu

Analyst

Hi, Jason.

Jason Cho

Analyst

Just to mention here and I -- you're asking a question about what do the amendments or the refinancing allow us to do effectively that we couldn't do before. The amendments to the covenants and to the credit agreement effectively allows us to carve out crease, and sell equity to potential partners, and to consider credit-related alternatives to potential lenders. So, project financing would be one, and again, the ability to sell equity to the potential partners without having to seek consent from either bondholders or the senior lenders to the Company. And that was all effectively done with refinancing.

Cosmos Chiu

Analyst

Great. Those are all the questions I have. Thanks, George and team. Have a good weekend, happy Halloween. Not sure if you're going to go trick or treating, George, but I'm sure you'll be dressed as usual as a Gold CEO. So better looking than me. I'll be dressed as a Gold Analyst. Once again, thanks a lot.

George Burns

Analyst

Thanks, Cosmos.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Kerry Smith with Haywood Securities. Please go ahead.

Kerry Smith

Analyst · Haywood Securities. Please go ahead.

Thanks Operator. Perhaps you could put a little bit more color around Stratoni, just in terms of the holding costs now. I mean, you got I guess, 3,400 employees there and you're going to try and retrain some and rehire them into some of your other operations but I presume at some point there will be redundancies there. So, I'm just trying to understand what the holding cost might be for that asset on an all-in basis per quarter or 3 year on a go-forward basis while you're pursuing this exploration strategy.

Joseph Dick

Analyst · Haywood Securities. Please go ahead.

I can take it.

George Burns

Analyst · Haywood Securities. Please go ahead.

Out to start off of that?

Kerry Smith

Analyst · Haywood Securities. Please go ahead.

Sure.

George Burns

Analyst · Haywood Securities. Please go ahead.

Go ahead.

Joseph Dick

Analyst · Haywood Securities. Please go ahead.

Well certainly, Kerry, where we look to care and maintenance, those numbers are in the $3.5 million to $4.5 million annual range, we're still preliminary on finalizing. And then -- so that's after we've reached full care and maintenance, and we'll look to optimize those certainly beyond that. Then the transitional cost of -- from A to B or from full operation to transition or to care and maintenance. Still working on it, but we're generally in the $10 million range, with some production offsets that we'll see between now and then. Those numbers are still very preliminary, but that's the order of magnitude that we're moving through, is $3.5 to $4.5 million care and maintenance with the transition costs.

Kerry Smith

Analyst · Haywood Securities. Please go ahead.

Okay. And then that $10 million cost, Joe, would include all costs, like retraining and severance redundancy, whatever the numbers are that sets [Indiscernible] costs.

Joseph Dick

Analyst · Haywood Securities. Please go ahead.

We're in that range.

Kerry Smith

Analyst · Haywood Securities. Please go ahead.

Right. Okay. Perfect. And then, while I got you Joe, maybe just one second question on the HPGR. I mean, I know you're just starting to run it, but can you make any commentary at all about the size fractions that is delivering? Is it delivering the products that you expected from that piece of equipment or is it still need some tinkering and tuning to get to where you'd like to be?

Joseph Dick

Analyst · Haywood Securities. Please go ahead.

We actually got what commissioning started on Monday and things went pretty well, the customary software glitches and things to get going, and we've got a couple of runs going as of Tuesday, Wednesday. Early on size fraction looks good and then we had some unfortunate news last night. One of our key commissioning people from [Indiscernible] had a family member killed in a car accident and had to pull out. So, we're regrouping and waiting until [Indiscernible] to get another commissioning person on site. But early indications are size fraction pretty good. We haven't even really gotten to the point where we are seeing how to manage recirculating load, that kind of thing. But happy with the initial pass fracture, at least at this point. It's probably too early to give you any kind of indication of how long will take us to dial that in at reasonable throughput rates, but I would expect another week or so we'll have pretty reasonable numbers on initial run report.

Kerry Smith

Analyst · Haywood Securities. Please go ahead.

Are you thinking the wet commissioning will just only take another week or two then, it's not going to be that long?

Joseph Dick

Analyst · Haywood Securities. Please go ahead.

But basically, through the end of November we'll ramp up, and then we'll continue ramping up from that point, but it is pretty early on to start getting any analytical data as yet, but I think by the end of the month we'll have that and we'll be at some level for turnover to operations around that time, Kerry. But I think what we wanted, we're certain in this white commissioning period that we get reasonable operating parameters set and those early metallurgical guideposts established, so we don't run too fast to handover. We handover with metallurgical guidance and operating parameters.

Kerry Smith

Analyst · Haywood Securities. Please go ahead.

Right. Okay. That's helpful. Thank you very much, Joe and George and Jason, I appreciate it.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Tanya Jakusconek with Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst · Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Great. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking my questions. Two questions. The first one, I just want to come back to something that you had in the MD&A. The changes to the concentrate sales terms that you did in October, can you talk about what those changes are, and what impacts on the Efemcukuru and Olympias costs are you projecting percentage-wise?

Philip Yee

Analyst · Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Hi Tanya, it's Phil. I think what's being alluded there is really the way some of the concentrate sales are being structured. In the past the payability on the concentrate was separate from refining and transport costs. And now those costs are blended in as part of the effective rate. So, you basically seeing the revenue side slightly lower because it's incorporating costs and you see the costs, in past, the costs have been reported separately and now they're blended. So, I think that's the change that's being referred to.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst · Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Nothing structurally, it's just how you're allocating them.

Philip Yee

Analyst · Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Exactly. It's part of the negotiation of the new contracts, There is no real impact on the bottom line. Its just revenues will be slightly lower because it's incorporating costs and the costs will be lower because they're no longer reflected as part of the effect to cost.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst · Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Okay. Thank you. And then I just wanted to check with you on your reserves and resources. I know the program after September is sort of what you're doing in terms of calculating your reserve and resources and you will be releasing those. I think it's usually early December. Can you talk about number 1, the pricing, we are seeing inflationary pressures. 1, are you changing any price forecasting for your pets and/ or other for reserve and resource assumptions. 2, what are you looking at? Like what mines can we expect additions and where are we struggling? Thank you.

George Burns

Analyst · Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

You want to take that, Joe?

Joseph Dick

Analyst · Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

I can take it, George. Thank you, Tanya. Where we're sitting right now is we are looking through final numbers for MR and more related and you're right, we'll have the numbers calculated or ready for presentation in early November, early December. The ups and downs are relatively modest. We are expecting some improvements in [Indiscernible] (ph) and [Indiscernible] (ph), but our drilling cutoffs go back all the way to end of March for this release. So, the ups and downs are relatively modest across-the-board. So, we'll give you more information at the time of the release, but nothing major in either -- in either direction. But good news, generally.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst · Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Okay. So, it sounds that -- the reserve and resource base is, generally, not going to change too much. Just want to --

Joseph Dick

Analyst · Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Yeah.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst · Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Correct. Yeah. And can I just confirm that are no -- you're not really changing how -- your parameters in terms of how you're calculating your reserves and resources? No change to cutoff, upgrade that or other?

Joseph Dick

Analyst · Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Not significantly, no, no major cost changes due to price changes and no major changes on commodity prices from our long-term views.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst · Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

That's also great. Thank you so much.

George Burns

Analyst · Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Thanks, Tanya.

Operator

Operator

That is all the time we have for stay. And this concludes the question-and-answer session and today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating and have a pleasant day.