William Scilacci
Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open
Thanks Ted and good afternoon everyone. My comments focus on the following topics; financial results, updates on capital spending, rate base on fuel and purchase power, and 2014 earnings guidance. Please turn to page 2; for the fourth quarter of 2013, core earnings are $0.81 per share. The comparison to the fourth quarter last year is not particularly helpful, because SCE's 2012 CPUC general rate case decision was recorded in the fourth quarter of last year. The quarter-over-quarter comparison is summarized at the right of the slide. The earnings drivers are the same things we have been discussing all year. For SCE< the year-over-year comparison is more informative. Before I go there, I want to comment on fourth quarter results at the holding company. EIX recorded $0.02 per share of earnings, $0.08 better than last year, largely due to $0.06 per share of higher earnings from Edison Capital. As we had previously mentioned, Edison Capital has a small investment portfolio, including affordable housing investments. This portfolio con to wind down and periodically, we will record income from sales or distributions. It is difficult to predict the timing and amount of income from the remaining portfolio and we have not and will not include any income in our guidance numbers. As a reminder, holding company costs generally run a bit more than $0.01 per month. In addition to the Edison Capital income, the holding company also had $0.02 per share of lower cost in taxes. A non-core item of $0.11 per share in discontinued operations is from Edison Mission Energy, for ongoing adjustments to income taxes. As a result, we moved the accounting for EME to discontinued operations following its bankruptcy, filed in the fourth quarter of 2012. For the end of 2013, we now have recorded $70 million from adjustments related to the outcome of the EME bankruptcy, including estimated retained tax benefits from the deconsolidation of EME for tax purposes. As we have reported last week in our EME Settlement conference call, we expect to record an additional $130 million during the first quarter of 2014, assuming the bankruptcy court approves EME's amended Plan of Reorganization. Together, this adds up to the estimated $200 million of income EME settlement is expected to produce. I'd also like to note, that based on our updated disclosures, we have recorded $290 million of joint tax and $35 million of joint pension liabilities, for a total of $325 million as of December 31, 2013. Under the settlement agreement, we would also assume certain executive retirement obligations. In total, we have estimated these liabilities would be approximately $315 million as of the closing. Please turn to page 3; as Ted has already mentioned, EIX's 2013 core earnings are $3.80 per share. On a year-over-year basis, this is slightly behind last year, SONGS accounts for most of the difference, because we stopped recording a full return on investment and related AFUDC earnings since the shutdown decision was made. The other major reason for the decline, is a reduction in income tax benefits in 2013 compared to 2012. The increased earnings from rate base growth in 2013 were offset by the lower CPUC authorized return on common equity. To make it helpful in comparing full year results with our updated guidance from the third quarter call, we have added a slide on page 4, to highlight the changes. On full year core results came in -- our full year core results came in $0.15 per share above the midpoint of the guidance that we last updated on October 29. $0.08 per share improvement is largely cost savings at SCE. Holding Company results are better by $0.07 per share, largely from Edison Capital earnings, that were not included in our guidance and were booked in the fourth quarter. One last point I'd like to emphasize is the track record of rate base and earnings growth that SCE has achieved over the last several years. Please turn to page 5 of the deck; since 2008, the compound annual growth rates of rate base and core earnings are 10% and 12% respectively. This is a rather remarkable achievement for our industry. Looking forward, next I will provide updates on capital spending and rate base, please turn to page 6. From our prior forecast, the 2014 through 2017 capital forecast increased $400 million. The increase reflects the catch-up of 2013 GRC capital expenditures into 2014, together with updated transmission cost estimates, including FAA requirements for the Tehachapi project. During 2014, a major focus for us, is to ensure that we invest the capital dollars authorized by the CPUC for infrastructure replacement and reliability related projects. For 2013, SCE's actual capital spending was $3.5 billion or $300 million below our forecast. This was largely due to transmission delays and lower cost on two completed renewable transmission projects in 2013, as well as a slower than planned ramp-up of an infrastructure replacement spending, even though we were able to increase reliability infrastructure investments, $300 million over 2012. Historical capital expenditures are shown in the appendix to this deck. Please note, that our current capital forecast does not including spending for storage projects, preferred resources to replace San Onofre or transmission projects that are currently included in the Cal ISOs resource plan. Potential expenditures for projects like these are currently under consideration. Please turn to page 7; as Ted mentioned, our rate base forecast reflects only minor changes, with a net $100 million decrease by 2017. The growth rate remains at 7% to 9% per year through 2017. Once we get a phase two decision and a SONGS OII, which is considering if some portion of SONGS is still used and useful, we will then update our forecast accordingly. On page 8, we have updated the status of our fuel and purchase power, of what we refer to as ERRA. We look to get a CPUC approval this spring of our 2014 forecast proceeding. You may recall from last year, that the CPUC had deferred consideration of a portion of the ERRA costs that relate to SONGS shutdown decision, until the overall SONGS regulatory review is completed. We have provided an updated estimated of the 2013 net SONGS costs of $467 million, and have agreed to defer collection until consideration of the OII, if we receive a timely decision of our 2014 forecast proceeding. Overall, SCE has under collected -- was under collected by just over $1 billion in this account by year end 2013. While the ERRA situation was important from a near term liquidity perspective, we believe that SONGS OII will be the key driver for recovering SONGS replacement power costs. I should also mention that, while we focused investor attention on the ERRA under collection, we have added to our disclosures and noted at the bottom of the slide, that for all regulatory balancing accounts, SCE had a net over collection of $554 million at year end 2013. At the same time, SCE had availability of $2.46 billion under its $2.75 billion credit facility. On page 9, I have noted a couple of procedural updates on our 2015 general rate case. First, the two assigned ALJs hosted a pre-hearing conference on February of 11, where the schedule for public participation meetings and details on the timeline for hearings and motions were discussed. We anticipate the ALJs will publish a schedule shortly. We continue to press for a timely decision by the end of 2014. However, over the last few years, the investor on utilities in California have experienced delays in receiving their final GOC decisions. Also with the sale of Four Corners, we are updating our GRC request to remove SCE share of cost related to this coal-fired plant. This will lower the requested revenue requirement modestly in each year. The revenue requirement numbers on page 9 incorporate the sale of Four Corners. Next, I'd like to provide some perspective on key assumptions behind our 2014 earnings guidance, please turn to page 10. You will recall that, when we first gave 2013 earnings guidance, [indiscernible] that we would expect both 2013 and 2014 earnings would exceed the simplified rate base earnings model that we have discussed for some time. This was because cost savings and income tax benefits were expected to be realized. We also indicated that these benefits will be trued-up in the 2015 general rate case, and would not apply to earnings in 2015 and beyond. We still believe this to be the case. For 2014, the simplified rate base model would yield earnings per share of $3.40 for SCE. To be clear, we are using a 2014 rate base forecast of $22.1 billion from page 6. This rate base number is the midpoint between the request and range cases. We have excluded SONGS rate base pending the decision in phase two of the songs OII proceeding. The authorized return on common equity for both CPUC and FERC is 10.45%. Our assumptions also include a 48% common equity ratio and a flat share count. We then see a net upside of $0.45 per share at SCE. We deduct $0.07 per share to account for the remaining 52% of the capital structure related to SONGS, cost of debt, and preferred stock. There are $0.52 of positive items primarily related to O&M, additional income tax benefits and energy efficiency. The 2014 guidance also assumes $0.15 per share in holding company costs. We'd assume no non-core impacts in our guidance. We plan to update our non-core guidance based on the outcome of the EME bankruptcy. The Bankruptcy Court, as Ted said, is scheduled to consider the EME Plan of Reorganization on March 11. This gets us to the midpoint of $3.70 per share for both core and basic EPS, with a range of $3.60 to $3.80 per share. We have noted the major assumptions on the right side of the slide. In conclusion of my remarks, I will make a few additional points, please turn to page 11. As Ted said, our main goal is about creating shareholder value. From a financial perspective, that means delivering on rate base and earnings growth objectives, while generating sufficient cash flow to support both our capital plans and common dividend growth objectives, without the need for additional common equity. That concludes my comments. I'd like to turn the call over to the operator for Q&A now.