Good day, everyone, and welcome to The Estée Lauder Companies Fiscal 2023 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded and webcast. For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to the Senior Vice President of Investor Relations, Ms. Rainey Mancini.

Hello. On today's call are Fabrizio Freda, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Tracey Travis, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Since many of our remarks today contain forward-looking statements, let me refer you to our press release and our reports filed with the SEC, where you'll find factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements. To facilitate the discussion of our underlying business, the commentary on our financial results and expectations is before restructuring and other charges and adjustments disclosed in our press release. Unless otherwise stated, all organic net sales growth also excludes the non-comparable impacts of acquisitions, divestitures, brand closures, and the impact of foreign currency translation. You can find reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP measures in our press release and on the Investors section of our website. As a reminder, references to online sales include sales we make directly to our consumers through brand.com sites and through third-party platforms. It also includes estimated sales of our products through our retailers' websites. During the Q&A session, we ask that you please limit yourselves to one question, so we can respond to all of you within the time scheduled for this call. And now I'll turn the call over to Fabrizio.

Thank you, Rainey, and hello to everyone. We appreciate you joining us to discuss our fiscal year 2023 results and outlook. Let me begin with the fourth quarter. We delivered an organic sales increase of 4%, achieving a return to growth for the quarter as expected. Momentum continued in the markets of EMEA and Latin America and accelerated in Asia Pacific, where organic sales growth improved from 7% in the third quarter to 36% in the fourth quarter, led by mainland China and Hong Kong SAR. Looking at the full year, while demand for our business is still strong with retail sales brought up mid-single digit globally, organic sales declined 6%. We delivered impressive double digit growth in the markets of EMEA and return to growth in Asia Pacific, while the Americas held steady. These gains across the markets of EMEA and Asia Pacific were more than offset by Asia travel retail, given the prolonged and complex recovery from the pandemic, as we have discussed in our previous earning calls. Indeed, our global travel retail business decreased 34% organically in fiscal year 2023, solely driven by Asia travel retail. Our travel retail business in EMEA and the Americas soared, and our investment in activation and in store beauty advisor drove strong performance as passenger traffic increased. The rest of our business in total rose 5% organically as growth accelerated from 10% in the third quarter to 17% in fourth quarter. The challenges in Asia travel retail disproportionately pressured skin care, which is our highest margin category. Compounding matters the leverage was pronounced as the lower level of sales consided with the elevated strategic investment in manufacturing and R&D capabilities, as well as information technology for our online business and to support our expanding supply chain globally. All told, our adjusted…

Thank you, Fabrizio, and hello, everyone. While we certainly had many successes this past fiscal year, as you just heard, we are not satisfied with our fiscal 2023 financial results and are executing on our strategy to progressively rebuild the margin accretive areas of our business over the next few years, and leverage the investments we have made in manufacturing, distribution and technology capabilities. I will further address our plans when I discuss our fiscal 2024 outlook, but first, I will cover the fiscal 2023 fourth quarter and full year results. Our fourth quarter organic net sales increased 4% and earnings per share was $0.07. From a geographic standpoint, organic net sales grew in nearly all markets in both Asia Pacific and EMEA. This strong performance was partially offset by the ongoing challenges in our Asia travel retail business as we expected. Organic net sales in Asia Pacific rose 36%, reflecting double-digit growth in most markets, led by Mainland China and Hong Kong SAR, as they continue to progress in recovery with fewer COVID-related restrictions compared to the prior year. They also benefited from our successful brand innovations, new product launches, activation consumer -- of consumers and targeted consumer reach. In Mainland China, online realized over 30% organic growth and achieved approximately 60% penetration of sales in the quarter. In EMEA, organic net sales decreased 15%. The growth in nearly all markets and channels of distribution was more than offset by the performance of our Asia travel retail business. In Hainan, retail sales declined more than we expected in the quarter for the reasons Fabrizio mentioned. Excluding our travel retail business, net sales in both Makeup and Fragrance rose double digits in the region, benefiting from our strategic investments in advertising and promotional activities and the reestablishment of services in…

The floor is now open for questions. [Operator Instructions] Our first question today comes from Steve Powers from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Yes. Hi. Good morning and thank you. I'd love it if you could address two topics, maybe one for you, Tracey, one for you, Fabrizio. First for Tracey, just -- appreciate your commentary at the end there, but just maybe a little bit more detail, if you could expand on the assumptions embedded in the 1Q step back and declines juxtaposed against what looks like a pretty rapid return to fairly -- to basically double-digit organic growth over the remainder of the year? Just little more color there, and I'm assuming a lot of the variability focused on Hainan, so maybe some expansion there? And then Fabrizio, I know the company had a leadership offsite in June. I'd love your perspective on how recent changes in the operating environment impacted points of emphasis of that meeting? And how the related discussion may have informed your 2024 outlook? Thank you very much.

Hi, Steve. So I'll start with your question regarding the cadence of the year. And you're right, there is a lot of variability. If I would take you back to the first and second quarter of last year, you'll recall that while we had some disruption in Hainan, we did have -- we still had some business in Hainan. We also had business in Korea. So our travel retail percent of mix was higher in the first half of last year in addition to, obviously, the recovery that we were seeing in the EMEA and Americas regions in terms of the airports in those regions. In the second half of the year, then obviously, we saw the challenges that we've called out certainly in the last call as it relates to both Korea, and obviously what Fabrizio talked about in the fourth quarter as it relates to Hainan. We have a bit of a reverse situation as we're anniversarying those impacts this year. So with what happened in the May, June time frame in Hainan, we are seeing traffic and less conversion in Hainan than we saw previously. That is impacting our Q1 certainly compared to last year when we saw more traffic and more conversion in Hainan and in Korea. That gets a bit better in Q2, as we anniversary some of the softness that began to materialize in Q2 last year in those two areas. And then we're anniversarying, obviously, the softness that we experienced in the second half of our fiscal 2023 in fiscal 2024. So we are expecting that travel retail will get progressively better in the third and fourth quarter, certainly compared to the third and fourth quarter we had this year. Part of that, Steve, is obviously the destocking that we are doing. So in Hainan, obviously, with the sudden change in Daigou, that is making the retail traffic slower than what we had anticipated. And as a result of that, it's changing our view on the shipments that we will need for Hainan in the first quarter and certainly a bit into the second quarter. So I hope that helps in terms of some of the cadence of what we're experiencing and why the margin differential is so great. As you know, Travel Retail certainly benefits from a lot of the investment that we make in our markets like China and Korea and Japan, and all of the other markets not only in Asia, but in EMEA as well. And so it is a high margin -- higher margin channel for us for some of those reasons. Fabrizio?

Yes, on our leadership [Technical Difficulty] In June, we look at the strategy and the strategy of the future. And so what Tracey and I have presented in our prepared remarks are the results of also this work of reconfirming the strategy for 2024 for the next three years. And so, what are the key takeaways was your question. It's that, first of all, the market of global prestige beauty continue to be very attractive and will continue to be more and more attractive in the future. And our strategy is, as I explained in the prepared remarks, is now focused on continue building on our strengths and continue building the areas where we are really delivering great results and supporting this growth. At the same time, continue reinforcing the health of our brands and the innovation of our brands and refocusing resources and activities in all these areas. And then fix the TR issue, including a much better coordination between TR organization in China and China region organization in mainland, and the plans for the North America acceleration and to continue winning emerging markets. By the way, in the last quarter we're astonishing with a 38% growth. And so, deploying the resources, the capabilities, the skills to continue doing this in the key emerging markets, I have to say, the excitement in India is particularly high. And so, in summary, the leadership of the company has agreed and allocated resources and skills on the key components of the strategy for the next three years, which is, leverage the growth of the market and obviously, continue to build our strengths, fix our issues, and most importantly, support the profit recovery plan that again, we explained in the prepared remarks, in every single aspect at the accelerated pace of profit recovery, as Tracey just explained.

The next question comes from Dara Mohsenian from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Hi, guys. So two part question on my end that I think builds on that answer, Fabrizio. Some fairly unique circumstances in the past year, both externally and internally that caused weaker results than you originally expected. That's uncharacteristic versus a longer-term track record. So just wanted to get your perspective on, A, if you think you have good visibility on this fiscal 2024 earnings guidance? How much investment are you assuming incrementally to drive a recovery post 2024? And then B, perhaps, Tracey, you gave us some detail on margin expectations. But how should we think about sort of the ability to get back to peak historical margins at some point over the next few years? And how quickly we might see margin recovery relative to this 2024 base just as we think about those four building blocks you mentioned from here? Thanks.

Yes. In terms of the visibility to the guidance, obviously, Tracey and I have given you this guidance, we believe that that's the -- in this moment, is the project of the business. So we have visibility and clarity in terms of our plans. I want, however, to underline that the volatility externally remain very, very high, particularly the volatility in the Chinese market, the volatility in the transition in the TR market from the Daigou to the regular travelers, the transition to the groups traveling. They've just been announced in turn are low. The transition, obviously, on the judgment of what the economy recovery will be globally, particularly in the post-pandemic environment, particularly how the economy in China will evolve. So all these external elements are part, obviously our assumptions of these external elements are part of our guidance. And in the press release, we made an effort to explain all our assumptions in the guidance. And then in terms of our internal plans and in term of the continued leveraging our current trends on the things which are working, we are pretty confident. The real question is, how fast we will be fixing the issues? But the strengths of the current trends of what is working are frankly more easy to predict and to forecast. So net, we believe in our guidance, but will be obviously volatility to be managed in the context of the future, and you will see as much as we will see the evolution in these areas. And then Tracey?

Yes, Dara. So I mean, certainly, we are encouraged by some of the signs we see -- recent signs that we see in terms of recovery. The return of travelers. We are, as Fabrizio mentioned, in terms of our fiscal 2024, taking actions to pretty dramatically pull back on some of our production so that we can get our inventory levels in line. And that will improve our margin. And I talked about in my prepared remarks that we're expecting gross margin recovery from some of those actions. As the situation normalizes and more travelers come back to travel retail, we are very confident in the strategy that we've had previously. Pre-pandemic, we were well on our way to those 20% operating margins. We don't see any reason why, once things normalize, that we can't get back to those 20% margins. Timing, I can't give you. I have said in our prepared remarks that we certainly, over the next few years, have plans to accelerate the margin progression well above our historical guidance of 50 basis points of margin improvement, and that does recommend -- that does represent a catch-up in margin progression and again, the strategies that we have to do that. But we are incredibly focused as an organization on returning to the margins that are more representative of our growth and our growth potential. I will also underscore the fact that we will not do that at the expense -- at the short-term expense of hurting our brands or hurting our markets that are in recovery, so it is a balancing act for us in terms of making sure we're making the right surgical investments that support not only the recovery and the markets that are further along in recovery, and as well as the long-term investments that we need to continue our growth algorithm of 6% to 8% top line growth and margin expansion. So again, I can't -- I know that's not the answer you're looking for in terms of you want a specific year and a specific number. And hopefully, we will be able to give that to you when we get a bit more clarity on more stabilization in the environment. But right now, you have the commitment of our entire organization that we recognize and have plans to accelerate our margin progression well beyond our historical levels in order to try to catch up.

Our next question comes from Chris Carey from Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead.

Hi. Good morning, everyone.

Good morning.

So just one quick follow-up, and then a kind of a geographic question. Just on the China travel retail inventory dynamic. Fabrizio, you had mentioned that there's going to be greater collaboration between your teams in mainland and China travel retail. What's your confidence that some of the things that you may need to do to invest behind clearing your inventory won't impact brand equities and brand health? And I'm basically just trying to get a sense of the types of actions that you might be taking to clear inventory of -- consumption trends are as volatile as you say? And then just the geographic question would be, you had mentioned quite impressive growth rates in India, but also some underperformance in North America. Just over the next 12 months or longer, how do you think about this non-Asia market progressing, with perhaps to touch on what you see in some of these newer faster-growth markets? Thanks so much.

Yes. So I mean the -- in terms of the travel retail issue, you described it well. So we have increased the collaboration between the local team and the TR team just to have not only a better common decision-making on the key prioritization on the balancing act in order to create value and in order to continue to develop brand equities in a more coordinated way, but we also have more analytics to understand the channel dynamics, the pricing differentials and all the things. So we have created the base of much more information and timely information to take the right decisions in coordination. So this is a big improvement that should reduce the risk of non-coordinated actions in the future. Then the brand health that you also mentioned, I want to underline, the brand health is evident from the results in China. The brand health in -- with the Chinese consumers is really strong. And we have good market share results, which we already mentioned. The business has been growing 36% in the April, June quarter. The online market share has been extremely strong, 2 points extra of online market share. Our activation and consumer passion for our brands has been further confirmed by external research that our brands are at the top of the ranking of desirable brands in the market. So the brand equity, the brand health, also thanks the extraordinary work of our Mainland region, China Mainland region team is in good shape. And then you said correctly that we are very focused on the sell-through of the stocks, just to [indiscernible] the stocks. Obviously, as Tracey has explained, in May, June, Hainan was relatively weak, and that's why there is an impact also on the first quarter trend. But is -- but we are…

Our next question comes from Bryan Spillane from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone. I just have one question, and I think you've touched on it a couple of times in both the prepared remarks and the press release. It's just what's happening in Hainan with the Daigou and kind of the reseller market? So can you just -- as you're looking forward, is your expectation that it really -- that travel retail in Hainan specifically becomes really just more selling to individuals? And that the Daigou piece will be a lot smaller or maybe not even much of an element at all going forward? Just -- and if that's true, just how that changes how you're approaching operating in China now? Kind of, where do you make up those sales if you don't have the -- as big a presence with Daigou?

So I'll start in terms of that question. We don't control it, right? We sell to our travel retail operators, and so the whole mix of who is buying in Hainan is really with our retail partners. Part of the adjustment that we are seeing right now is the timing of when regular travelers return to Hainan when individual travelers, to your point, return to Hainan, and some of the changes in enforcement and regulations that have happened in China. And so there is a disconnect in timing that certainly is impacting our sales, combined with the fact that we are reducing the inventory levels that we have in Hainan. So that is all having a disproportionate effect. I think when we look at the development that has been done in Hainan, and we've talked about this for several years. Our expectation is that travelers, regular individual travelers, will return to Hainan and they will enjoy the fantastic shopping experience that has been created in Hainan, and we have no concerns whatsoever about travel retail growing with traveling consumers. It's a timing issue for us right now, and so I just wanted to really underscore that. It's a pretty -- it's having a timing issue that's having a big short-term, temporary impact for us. But we are not concerned at all about what we have shared with you in the past in terms of our strategy to continue to grow travel retail globally, and certainly in all of our markets in Asia.

Yes. And I just want to add that we have a clear evidence that when the -- first of all, the regulations and the retailers decide to focus on individual travelers and when individual travelers traffic becomes strongly growing, the business results are outstanding. Our business in EMEA travel retail in this moment is flying, is a plus, I believe, 36%, plus 40%, and the same in the Americas. And now, the same will start in APAC, in Japan, in Australia, et cetera. So wherever there is a post-COVID return to travel, there is a very exciting business growth. And for example, the groups were allowed so far all in Thailand. And in Thailand, this created a very interesting extra sales. So -- although to be clear, still below what was in the group since 2019, but there is a recovery trend. So the travel retail channel, in our opinion, remains very, very potential for the long term. And this business of selling to the traveling consumer during their travel is an exciting, profitable, equity-building business. What happened during the pandemic when this part of the business was closed has been a temporary distortion that will be rebalanced over time, as Tracey just explained. That is our expectation and our belief.

Our next question comes from Lauren Lieberman from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Great. Thanks. Good morning. I wanted to talk a little bit about the Japan manufacturing facility and just, overall, Asia-based supply chain for Asia. And just to get a little bit more perspective maybe on where you stand, I guess, completion? Is it -- and I know you're not going to be able to give us something too specific, but is it by the end of the calendar year, Japan is able to fulfill all of the demand out of China? Just something to help us understand kind of the scale to get that up and running. And then the implication that has for length of supply chain and then visibility? Because if you're trying to manage in a more volatile backdrop and even offering what you have on time line for recovery in Hainan and travelers, and are they in Korea? Where are they and who are they? You need to be, I guess, more agile. And that local supply chain, I would think, would offer a lot of help on that front, but we don't really have a sense of when it becomes a local supply chain, if you will. So anything you can offer on that front would be really helpful, I think. Thanks.

Okay. Thanks, Lauren. So part of the capital that we'll be spending this year is to complete the factory. So we've done some preproduction runs in fiscal 2023. The factory will be producing a bit of the volume for the region in fiscal 2024. We have very specific plans on -- which, largely Skin Care, as we've talked in the past, some foundation products will be manufactured in the plant. Given where we're at right now, as you -- as we just spoke about in terms of Skin Care, that will be more gradual. So we have to first complete the plant. We also have opened a new, temporary distribution center in China. We'll be expanding on some of our distribution footprint in China as well. So I would say in terms of -- it will take a couple of years of ramp-up before we have the Asia supply chain fully operational and full from a capacity standpoint. That doesn't mean that as we gradually ramp up over this year and next year, we won't be creating more agility by being able to start to shift some of the production in those areas. But right now, we're working on contracting some of our production just given some of the shocks to the system. So you are absolutely right that long term, this will create agility for us. There are other things that we're doing to create agility. We've talked in the past in terms of some of the investments we've made in technology to help our -- especially in a very dynamic demand environment in order to try to forecast more accurately. I don't know that any forecasting tool would have forecasted what we experienced this past year. But certainly, as we think about all of our new innovation, all of our SKUs, new brands, et cetera, the more that we can technology enable and coordinate our inventory planning and our supply planning, the better we will have from -- experience we will have from an agility standpoint as well. So there's a tremendous amount of work that is going on to very much improve the situation going forward. Right now, we're managing just some tremendous shocks to the system that we're in the process of correcting.

And I would just want to add a bit more color to the concept that Tracey just underlined on the fact that despite this will take a couple of years to ramp up to get to the full leveraging, the benefits on agility will come as we go earlier. And the reason for that is that the agility is particularly needed on what we call the heroes SKUs. So the high-volume and the high-volume SKU, the one which can benefit more from speed to market, forecasting decisions which are closer to the moment where the market happens, the ability to produce depending on the trends. And so we will gradually ramp up, but we will ramp up first the SKUs and the brands that have the biggest need to create agility in Asia. And over time, then this will become our, as Tracey described, ongoing in a couple of years, we will have the full agility of the system implement.

That concludes today's question-and-answer session. If you are unable to join for the entire call, a playback will be available at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time today through September 1. To hear a recording of the call, please dial (877) 344-7529, pass code #4620398. That concludes today's Estee Lauder conference call. I would like to thank you all for your participation, and wish you all a good day.