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Embraer S.A. (EMBJ)

Q1 2020 Earnings Call· Mon, Jun 1, 2020

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the audio conference call that will review Embraer's First Quarter 2020 Results. Thank you for standing by. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions to participate will be given at that time. [Operator instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded and webcasted at ri.embraer.com.br. This conference call includes forward-looking statements or statements about events or circumstances which have not occurred. Embraer has based these forward-looking statements largely on its current expectations and projections about future events and financial trends affecting the business and its future financial performance. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, including, among other things, general economic, political and business conditions in Brazil and in other markets where the company is present. The words believe, may, will, estimates, continues, anticipates, intends, expects, and similar words are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Embraer undertakes no obligations to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements because of new information, future events or other factors. In light of these risks and uncertainties, the forward-looking events and circumstances discussed on this conference call might not occur. The company's actual results could differ substantially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. Participants on today's conference call are Mr. Francisco Gomes Neto, President and CEO; Mr. Antonio Carlos Garcia, Executive Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations; and Mr. Eduardo Couto, Director of Investor relations. I would like now to turn the conference over to Mr. Francisco Gomes Neto. Please go ahead, sir.

Francisco Gomes Neto

Analyst

Good morning, everyone and thank you all for joining our call today. I am Francisco Gomes Neto, the President and CEO of Embraer. I would like to make some initial remarks before passing to Antonio Garcia, our CFO that will explain the results. We are living in unprecedented times in a world with COVID-19 outbreak this year, that has brought meaning impacts to our industry, productivity, to the markets and uncertainties to our customers, employees and suppliers. I strongly believe that in difficult times like this, we need to stay focused on our strategy. I have chosen five main areas that in my view will make Embraer to emerge even stronger of this crisis. In Slide #3 we highlight them. First, and most important one, the health and safety of our employees. Our priority is and will continue to be to protect the health and safety of our people. We have been taking many measures to protect our associates who need to perform work on-sites. Measures such as sanitizing common areas in workstations, use of masks, adapting cafeterias in working areas, ensure appropriate social distancing and provide medical support and guidance in compliance with all the World Health Organization recommendations. Second, cash preservation. Embraer has launched a cash management team. We have daily meetings to discuss our currency liquidity and defining actions to preserve our cash. As for example, strict expense control, very high focus on accounts receivables, [mandatory] [ph] reduction in a non-robust investment approval process, such initiatives to help us to cross this crisis, and will remain as new processes in our company after the crisis. Third, we capture synergies. We are already working to eliminate duplications and regain synergies in [our commission] [ph] aviation. We will manage this business along with others to be more efficient eliminating…

Antonio Carlos Garcia

Analyst

Thank you, Francisco. It is a great pleasure to talk to all of you. Now moving to Slide #6. As Francisco mentioned, we are operating during unprecedented times with developments regarding to the COVID-19 pandemic, evolving almost daily and growing risks to the global economy, our industry customers and all the stakeholders. Despite our uncertainties Embraer's liquidity position remained solid with our continuous cash discipline. At the end of the first quarter, we finished with a total cash of $2.5 billion and a good debt situation with no major maturities coming due until 2022. We are also in discussion with local and international banks to bring additional financial lines to further strengthen our liquidity in the short-term. I cannot give you details now, but I expect to have news to share with the market in the coming weeks. On a different subject, during the first quarter, we finished the internal segregation of the commercial aviation business, which basically shutdown the whole company during the month of January as we transitioned all of our operating systems, which impacted our deliveries during the quarter. Then as we already disclosed, around a month ago, we received notice from Boeing regarding their interest to terminate the strategic partnership between our two companies in the commercial aviation business. Embraer has been in compliance with all of the conditions under the agreement and we will work in the arbitration process to pursue any and all remedies available to compensate Embraer for their wrongful termination of the agreements by Boeing. We will not make further comments on the arbitration procedures given its confidentiality aspects. By the way, the COVID-19 and the termination of the MTA caused a delay in our closing procedures and we should be fast in the coming quarters with our report. With respect to…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Myles Walton, UBS. You may proceed.

Myles Walton

Analyst

Thanks, good morning. Antonio Carlos, maybe you can provide the margins by segment. It sounded like defense and security and executive aviation actually had pretty good performance, so if you can just highlight that? And then I had a couple of other questions.

Francisco Gomes Neto

Analyst

Hi, good morning Myles. Yes, as you said, we had a very good quarter for executive and defense, executive margins were around 2% positive margins as we have been saying, executive margins are recovering. Now we have a very solid [indiscernible] of products with the [indiscernible] and that's - it's helping the margins – and this is already showing the results. In defense also as you mentioned as we concluded the KC-390 development, margins would improve and that's also already showing in the results. We have double-digit margins slightly above 10% for defense, also good margins given the conclusion of the KC development. On commercial, margins were affected by very little bit [indiscernible] as Antonio mentioned we were shutdown in January. We only had five deliveries, so margins in commercial were slightly negative. And finally on service, we keep our double-digit margins as we have been showing on the last couple of quarters.

Myles Walton

Analyst

Okay, great. And then further, for the free cash flow, Antonio Carlos I know you're in the process of securing financing and looking at ways of cash preservation. As you look at it today for the remaining three quarters of the year, will free cash flow be positive?

Antonio Carlos Garcia

Analyst

Hey Myles, good morning. I would say the Q2 will be also tough quarter for us, but then as we always do, we will recover in Q3 and Q4. I do see pressure in Q2, because we had the biggest impact of COVID on the cash flow side, and then like to see a recovery in Q3 and Q4, if nothing changed in the current scenario that we are leading right now.

Myles Walton

Analyst

Okay, so do you think year-end balance sheet position is similar to where it is right now?

Antonio Carlos Garcia

Analyst

It's a little bit above $2 billion regarding to the liquidity, more or less our target.

Myles Walton

Analyst

Okay, and the last one Francisco, the slide on short-term strategy is helpful. Can you give a comment towards the medium term strategy of the company and whether recombining what has already been separated is something that you're pursuing in the medium term or are you looking at other alternatives?

Francisco Gomes Neto

Analyst

So Myles we are just in the process to review our five-year strategy plan, meaning with high focus on the commercialization, but also we view this five year plan for the other business units as well in the light of the COVID situation. So we expect to conclude this process in a few months. And in this process, we are evaluating all the possible actions we can take, including potential partnerships.

Myles Walton

Analyst

Okay, all right. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Ron Epstein, Bank of America. You may proceed.

Ronald Epstein

Analyst

Hey, good morning.

Francisco Gomes Neto

Analyst

Hi Ron.

Antonio Carlos Garcia

Analyst

Hi, Ron.

Ronald Epstein

Analyst

Could you give us a feeling for how your conversations are going with your customers? There's a narrative that regional aviation, smaller capacity aircraft could lead us out of this downturn. Are you seeing any evidence of that with your customers and if you are can you give us any feel for what you're hearing?

Francisco Gomes Neto

Analyst

Well, we have at this point of time a quite stable situation. We have seen some deferrals of our customers, but no cancellations. We might have some change in the following months depending on the progress of how this crisis evolves. But at this point of time, I mean we believe our situation is quite stable in terms of production program for 2020 and 2021.

Ronald Epstein

Analyst

Okay, and then if we shift to the business aviation end market, the margins this quarter were better than I think folks were expecting. How does the demand front look? Have you seen any deferrals or cancellations there or what's going on in the business aviation side of things?

Francisco Gomes Neto

Analyst

On the business aviation has suffered much less than the commercial aviation. We had some - a few deferrals for this year. And we might have more opportunities next year because I mean more executives might increase the use of shared flights or even decide to buy their own jets for a more reserved transportation. The executive aviation might be an opportunity after this post COVID. And by the way, although our commercial aviation, as we believe the regional and domestic flight should start earlier I think this will be a good opportunity for our E-Jets, I mean to recover first and also their respective service for those jets.

Ronald Epstein

Analyst

Okay, great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Josh Milberg, Morgan Stanley.

Josh Milberg

Analyst

Good day, everyone. Thank you for the questions. Your comment on where you see cash at the end of the year was very helpful. But I was I was hoping you could update us a little further – that the target of 1 billion in potential cash savings for 2020 that you touched on the last call. And specifically, I was hoping you could address the CapEx and product development of that, and just what kind of investments flexibility you see around the E2 program? That’s my first question.

Francisco Gomes Neto

Analyst

Hi, Josh, yes as we mentioned on the previous call, we continue to work very hard on the cash side. We have this cash management team that Antonio is leading. And we have been able to identify a lot of potential cash savings. This is going to be very important for us to offset some of the deferrals especially in commercial. So I would say overall the cash situation has been stable in the last four to five weeks, which is very good. So we are working hard to reduce investments. In terms of the workforce, we have more than 50% of our workforce in work hours and salary reductions. So, all those initiatives combined with suppliers that we are renegotiating orders and also postponing payments, all of that will help a lot our cash consumption this year. First quarter is always the weakest quarter in terms of cash consumption, but the second quarter should be also a weak quarter, but after that we expect to recover. I don’t know if Antonio wants to add.

Antonio Carlos Garcia

Analyst

Just to repeat, we are targeting to finish the fiscal year with liquidity around $2 billion, that's our target, it’s more or less where we are today with some small adjustment. And we are also going down for investment more than 50% by May [indiscernible].

Josh Milberg

Analyst

Okay, that's helpful, but also taking a little bit of a longer term view, can you just remind us though roughly what the amount of investment is due for the E2 program and how much of that corresponds to the E2 175. And maybe also just comment on whether you've contemplated the possibility of a later entry into service for the E2 175?

Antonio Carlos Garcia

Analyst

Yes, go ahead please.

Francisco Gomes Neto

Analyst

Just can I add Antonio, we don't have any confusions in terms of deferring our programs at this point. What we can say is really, we have been spending the last couple of years, around $400 million to $500 million in investments, and these numbers should go down quite substantially. So investment should be more at the ballpark of $200 million to $300 million.

Josh Milberg

Analyst

Okay that’s fine.

Antonio Carlos Garcia

Analyst

And in regards to E2 – we are revising our investment and our timelines as soon as we have a final conclusion going to communicate in the market until now there is no change per se.

Josh Milberg

Analyst

Okay, that's very helpful, and then just one follow-up on the defense profitability. I think you suggested and you had suggested in the past to me that your shift from the development to production phase of the KC could impact mean higher profitability and but we've also seen very high levels of volatility in your margins in defense in the past? So I just wanted, to get a little bit of a better sense if you think that the margin that you had this last quarter is something that that could be pretty recurring over the remainder of this year and beyond?

Francisco Gomes Neto

Analyst

That's a good question, Josh. As we have been saying, right, we had tough margins in defense in the last couple of quarters, mostly driven by the end of the development of the KC-390. Now that we are concluding the development and we are moving from development to production. We expect margins to get better. I think first quarter was already an indication of that. We had double digit margins in defense at defense margins to maintain at a healthy level as we move away from the KC development.

Antonio Carlos Garcia

Analyst

And by the way, we really do have a really small reduction in regards to revenue for the defense side is more or less stable, which gives us a kind of let's say comfort to go through the year with a nice number.

Josh Milberg

Analyst

Okay got it.

Antonio Carlos Garcia

Analyst

And Francisco, if you allow me also when I mentioned in my initial remarks initially as operational excellence in the cost reduction for specific products we have a project to focus on cost reduction of the specific products and the KC is included in that project, so we expect that going forward to 2020/2021 we expect a very high focus on this cost reduction programs of our products with a positive impact in the results of such products as well.

Josh Milberg

Analyst

Perfect, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Next question comes from Alex Falcao, HSBC.

Alexandre Falcao

Analyst

Good morning, thanks for the question. My question is regarding the news talking about a negotiation between you guys and BNDES for a debt facility. Can you give us any details on how would that work size any equity component into that? And secondly, given your perspective on where cash is going to be earlier in the call, would that be necessary or is it's going to be a standby facility, depending on how the environment evolves? Thank you.

Francisco Gomes Neto

Analyst

Hi Falcao, our liquidity as you said right remains quite strong. We closed the quarter with $2.5 billion in cash, very solid cash. Despite that, we continue to evaluate potential new finance lines. We're not even disclosed at this point. But we are confident that there is plenty of liquidity available for Embraer. And if it's necessary, we're going to continue to add liquidity to the company. So we don't see that as 100% necessary, but I think it's very important for us to keep a strong balance sheet and we have the finance lines available if we want you to improve that.

Antonio Carlos Garcia

Analyst

Falcao, just another comment here. If it's enough or not I'd say $2 billion is our target because we also want to show that Embraer is still liquid, that we still work in the margin, also for future business to close if our customer. And again, have no fear that we are able to do it, hence we would feel also that we've had a strong financial position throughout this year, even with everything what you're seeing right now okay. And for the time being, we don't want to comment about the financial lines, but at least we do not see any activity as a priority right now.

Alexandre Falcao

Analyst

Okay, that's super helpful thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Mr. Cai von Rumohr, Cowen.

Cai von Rumohr

Analyst

Thank you very much. So we're about two-thirds through your second quarter. Could you give us some color in terms of the demand for business jets or what you're seeing in the market and for commercial. For example, a number of the dealers we talked to said, the first month of the quarter when COVID was coming out there were no deals closing. Are there more deals closing now and also – and now that people have looked over their situation are you seeing both in Bizjets and in commercial more or less requests for deferrals? Thank you very much.

Antonio Carlos Garcia

Analyst

Okay in regards to for sure we do see a huge amount of deferrals for the commercial aviation. And for the business jets we haven't realized I could say below two digits, the deferrals and especially the fleet owners they are confirming their orders. And there's more or less this way we are here right now highly concentrated on commercial aviation for this fiscal year in regards to deferrals.

Cai von Rumohr

Analyst

So Bizjets you have a chance of being close to where your earlier forecasts were in terms of – as you see demand at this moment?

Antonio Carlos Garcia

Analyst

Yes.

Francisco Gomes Neto

Analyst

And even during the Q2 with all restriction Embraer still continues to deliver aircraft.

Cai von Rumohr

Analyst

Got it, thank you. And then you mentioned, kind of once we're through COVID, where the company is going longer term. You mentioned examining partnerships. I was surprised that you and Boeing didn't continue the partnership on the KC-390, which looked like it wouldn't require cash on their side without a lot of benefits for both parties with limited investments. And could you comment on any other, potential partnerships like with the Chinese or others just the ones that are potentially in the mix? Thank you.

Francisco Gomes Neto

Analyst

All right, Cai, Francisco speaking. You asked me, as I mentioned in my remarks, we are now in the process to review our five-year strategic plan and of course, some initiatives are related to potential partnerships in the defensive business units. And of course I mean markets like China, India and others are potential ones. So we are in this moment we review and analyze what could be the potential or possible business models for potential partnerships. Regarding the KC, the original business plan for the KC did not include the countries as U.S. for example. So the market perspective remains positives for the C-390. And of course, I mean here we also have opportunities for future partnerships. But at this moment, we are still in the process to evaluate alternatives and possible business models.

Cai von Rumohr

Analyst

Does that include for the commercial business or just mainly the defense and bizjet businesses?

Francisco Gomes Neto

Analyst

No commercial business, commercial business. For example, I can mention one project we have the [indiscernible] that we have started studies on this project. This project is a good candidate for a partnership with potential markets that might be very interested in having this aircraft.

Cai von Rumohr

Analyst

Terrific, thank you very much.

Francisco Gomes Neto

Analyst

You’re welcome.

Operator

Operator

Next question comes from Victor Mizusaki, Bradesco BBI.

Victor Mizusaki

Analyst

Hi, thank you. I have a few questions here. The first one if you can give additional comments on the provisions for bad debt, if this is for – if this is related to specific clients? Number two, think about the second quarter, how much can we assume of savings with labor costs with all the initiatives that you mentioned? And that the last question, I mean, you mentioned that the target is to keep minimum cash liquidity of like $2 billion. But can you comment about the net debt position by year end what can we expect?

Antonio Carlos Garcia

Analyst

Well, I am going to answer your first question. In regards to bad debt provision we didn't change the procedure have internally. What we have been changed is the rating of the major customers. And by evaluating this, we do prefer to build up additional provisions in order to avoid [indiscernible] risking. Again, same methodology just changed – huge change in the ratings of our customers, that's the answer for the first question.

Francisco Gomes Neto

Analyst

Regarding the labor costs Victor, as Antonio mentioned right, we were super agile to reduce labor costs and adjust our labor force to the COVID-19 situation right. I think that was very important. I think we were faster than most of the companies in the market. We were able to put more than 50% of our labor force in work hours reductions, reducing salaries, and that includes the whole leadership even the Board. So that will be an important saving. That is part of the whole cash preservation initiatives. So we're not even a number, but it's an important initiative. In terms of net debt we are working hard on the cash preservation and its going to help to reduce the potential cash burn. We should close the year with our net debt a little higher than last year, but we still don't have a number to provide at this point. I don’t if Antonio wants to add something.

Victor Mizusaki

Analyst

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Please hold. This concludes today's question-and-answer session. That does conclude Embraer’s audio conference for today. Thank you very much for your participation. Have a good day.