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EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME)

Q1 2015 Earnings Call· Sun, May 3, 2015

$860.66

-2.80%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Genisha [ph] and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the EMCOR Group First Quarter 2015 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] Mr. Nathan Elwell, with FTI Consulting, you may begin.

Nathan Elwell

Analyst

Thank you, Genisha [ph] and good morning, everyone. Welcome to the EMCOR group conference call. We are here today to discuss the company's 2015 first quarter results which were reported earlier this morning. I'd like to turn the call over to Mr. Kevin Matz, Executive Vice President of Shared Services. Who will introduce the rest of the team? Kevin, please go ahead.

Kevin Matz

Analyst

Thank you, Nathan and good morning, everyone. Welcome to EMCOR group's earning conference call for the first quarter of 2015. Can't believe it's already here. For those of you, who are accessing the call via the internet and our website welcome and we hope you have arrived at the beginning of our slide presentation that will accompany our remarks today. Slide 2 depicts the executives who are with me to discuss the quarter's results. They're Tony Guzzi, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Mark Pompa, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Mava Heffler, Vice President of Marketing and Communications; and our Executive Vice President and General Counsel, Sheldon Cammaker. For call participants not accessing the conference call via the internet. This presentation including the slides will be archived in the Investor Relations section of our website under presentations. You can find this at emcorgroup.com. Before we begin, I want to remind you that this discussion may contain certain forward-looking statements. Such statements are based upon information available to EMCOR management's perception as of this date, and EMCOR assumes no obligation to update any such forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Accordingly, these statements are no guarantee of future performance. Such risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, adverse effects of general economic conditions, changes in the political environment, specific changes in the specific markets for EMCOR's services, adverse business conditions, increased competition, mix of business, and risks associated with foreign operations. Certain of the risks and factors associated with EMCOR's business are also discussed in the company's 2014 Form 10-K and other reports filed from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission. With that said, please let me turn the call over to Tony. Tony?

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

Thanks, Kevin, and I'm going to talking to Pages 3 through 5. First good morning and thank you for your interest in EMCOR. The first quarter proved to be more challenging than we originally anticipated. We had two external factors beyond our control. Refinery turnaround approvals and our industrial services segment as a result of the Refinery Operator Strike and the extreme cold weather that affected our project execution and our billing services and construction segments. Weather, was a net negative for us in Q1, 2015 versus Q1, 2014. Weather was a net positive for us as a result of heavier snowfall in most regions in the country in 2014 versus 2015. 2015's first quarter was colder, but a lot less snowy than first quarter 2014. We did continue to generate backlog growth as it is up 11% year-over-year and most end markets is steadily improved as the year progresses. We generated revenues of $1.589 billion and earned $0.52 per diluted share from continuing operations in the first quarter. The reality is, we're not a big fan of excuses at EMCOR, but these quarterly impacts from these external factors are real and had significant bottom line impact in the quarter. The refining operator strike cost us at least $25 million in revenues and at least $0.06 to $0.07 in diluted EPS from continuing operation. That $0.06 to $0.07 does not account for any leverage work we gain from increased work scopes, specialized welding services and just as important our high margin shop repair work. The extreme cold weather costs us $30 million to $40 million in revenues across our construction and building services segments and at least $0.03 to $0.05 in diluted EPS from continuing operations. The reality is, if the refinery operator strike does not happen, we would be…

Mark Pompa

Analyst

Thank you, Tony and good morning to everyone participating on the call today. For those accessing this presentation by the webcast, we're now of Slide 6. As Tony indicated in his opening commentary, I will begin with detailed discussion of our first quarter 2015 results before moving to key financial data derived from our consolidated financial statements included in both our earnings release announcement in Form 10-Q filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission earlier this morning. So let's get started. Consolidated revenues of $1.59 billion are down point 1% or essentially flat as compared to Q1, 2014. U.S. Electrical Construction revenues of $319 million increased $10.9 million or 3.5% from Q1, 2014. The increased revenue was due to greater project activity within the transportation, manufacturing and healthcare market sectors as compared to last year's first quarter. U.S. Mechanical Construction first quarter revenues declined $2 million to $511 million or a modest reduction of 0.4%. The quarterly reduction is due primarily to a decline in manufacturing water and wastewater and transportation construction projects. I would like to note, this segment has several operating companies that are in the North Eastern region which experienced loss work days during the quarter due to the weather factors, Tony previously touched upon. Additionally, this segment reported 4.2% of sequential backlog growth within the quarter which should favourably impact the next several quarters. EMCOR's total domestic construction business first quarter revenues increased $8.9 million or just over 1%. U.S. Building Services revenues of $439.5 million decreased $8.5 million quarter-over-quarter due to loss revenues attributable to two government contracts completed in 2014 that were not renewed pursuant to rebid. As well as the impact of less events snow removal activities in most geographies outside of New England region. These revenues reductions negated gains within their mobile…

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

Thanks, Mark and I'm on Page 10 and then I'll be on Page 11. I'm going to talk a little bit about backlog and what's going on in the markets. bidding activity was and continuous to remain active and it translated into a book-to-bill of 1.06%. Total backlog at the end of March is $3.74 billion that's up $369 million or approximately 11% from March, 2014. As I mentioned earlier, we saw backlogs that was sequentially also of $102 million reporting a strong book-to-bill reality, we should have a little less sequential growth of backlog because we should have burnt more revenue in the first quarter and our backlog driven businesses which is mainly our domestic construction businesses. In fact, if you look at our $3.7 billion of backlog, you'd have to go all the way back to 2008 to see a comparable period in the timeframe that we have outlined on this chart. And you can see that the gold portion which is commercial represents 34% of that backlog. Now if you take commercial and hospitality together in 2008 and you take that together today. You will see that we have the same level of mix of that work and in 2008; we were still working through the last phases of the Las Vegas expansion. Commercial sector backlog is close to $1.3 billion, an increase of $185 million or 17% from March, 2014. This really now two year to three year momentum in the commercial market gives us some confidence in conviction and it continue to pace of the non-residential recovery that we will see growth this year, despite the tough first quarter. As I mentioned earlier, the quarter's booking activity was strong and dispersed among many market sectors from December 14 in commercial and institutional and believe it…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] your first question comes from the line of Alex Rygiel of FBR

Alex Rygiel

Analyst

Tony, new awards is been is been about a $1.6 billion almost every quarter give or take for the last three years or so, it seems like you managed possibly to that number given sort of the stagnant market, but the market sounds like it's waking up a little bit. Is it time now for you possibly to press your team members to be a little bit more aggressive to build new awards a little bit quicker?

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

Alex, that's a balance question, our business is a business based on opportunities within a local market and we're seeing opportunities in markets to really grow some of our companies and part of that 2% headcount you see in response to not only opportunities that we have in hand, but opportunities we see in front of us. So the way I look at it, with 11% backlog growth year-over-year and very minor headcount additions. We do have the ability to take more work. So we, I don't want to say we're getting more aggressive because we really have driven discipline bidding in our business. It's part of our culture, but we have the ability to expand capabilities in markets and that's what we've done and a good example that is what we've done in the Metro New York area really building a infrastructure and transportation infrastructure electrical contract over the 8 years. So I think in one sense, the mathematics work out to a managed number. I think with the right market in front of us, that booking rate will continue to expand. But what you've seen is, it's gotten better. It's just the mix of change in construction business is actually up nicely 15% and 22% year-over-year.

Alex Rygiel

Analyst

And there are any larger projects such as Tappan Zee that from a timing standpoint, we could see the revenue burn sort of accelerate over the summer months here that spike your revenue?

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

Well, I think one of the things will help our revenue if you think the, let's just focus on the $30 million to $40 million late [ph] revenue in the construction business as a result of the weather that should come back into the business in Q2 in early Q3 based on scheduling. I would think a lot of that would come into Q2. And will probably work much productively regardless of whether we would have been able to do in the winter because we'll be doing it, in better weather now. I think the backlog velocity that we had up 11% year-over-year that as you know, that stuff has to move through the business now and we're continuing to see good opportunities and we're also seeing good momentum in our small projects work. You know buried in these numbers is a pretty good story in building services. The backlog grew from year end and revenue would have grown from year-end absent these two government contracts and Mark would tell you, the government contractor because of where we were in the execution - to get down. We really didn't get much profit contribution in first quarter last year from, but you know they were successful contracts because now we're distributing the cash. So and what's driving that building services revenue growth is really two things. It's leveraged work across our site-based portfolio both government and non-government absence of snow and the other part of it is the small project work in the mechanical services business, which is small project construction somewhat really the energy services. So that tells you, the commercial market continues to rehabilitate even outside of our backlog reported numbers. If that makes any sense to you, the way I laid it out.

Alex Rygiel

Analyst

And lastly, as I relates to SG&A. SG&A is been rising a little bit over the last couple of years, but it's sort of at a level. It seems like it might be at a top as a percent of revenue. Do you think that, we're going to continue to see maybe going forward greater leverage over that sort of SG&A fixed overhead?

Mark Pompa

Analyst

This is Mark. Obviously one of the things we talked about in connection with 2014 is that, we were expecting and we try to articulate to all of you that, we were going to see some increase in percentages because the industrial portion of our revenues is much more significant now then it's ever been certainly with the addition of our RSI in late 2013. We talked a little bit about how their fixed cost structure was higher than our other segment reporting segment business. But clearly, the percentage of revenues in the quarter just reported I hope it's a high water mark because once again as Tony said, structurally when you look at our cost, one of the biggest drivers in quarter one was really compensation-related. The fact that, we're still looking at the same targets despite the fact that, we got out of the gates a little bit slower this year than we would have liked, is driving at this proportion in a matter of comp expense in the quarter relative to the actual reported performance and we're obligated to accrue based on the estimates not try to chew it up to actual certainly at the end of quarter one. So we're clearly looking to be the sub 10%, I think Tony and I would be much happier, if we were in the mid 9's, but I think getting back to some of those periods, where we were in the low 9's to high 8's just put the composite business that we have today is probably unrealistic.

Alex Rygiel

Analyst

Great, thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of John Rogers of D.A. Davidson

John Rogers

Analyst

Just following-up on Alex's question. Just so I'm clear, Tony did you say that you expected 9% SG&A for the rest of the year?

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

No, no. I said, it would fall into the mid 9's. If you ask, what the range is likely to be, when the year is done at 2015 depending on the revenue growth, especially in our construction business and the rebound from some of these deferrals and what we think of, yet unsold opportunities that should materialize in the industrial space. We would be shooting for a number between 9.5% and 9.8%. John.

John Rogers

Analyst

Okay, thanks I appreciate that. And then just in terms of the construction work that is starting to come through, pricing on that. I mean, are you starting to see the market tighten up at all or is it just better at utilization? Are we going to see margin improvement I guess?

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

Yes, we should see, we're going to see margin improvement in electrical and mechanical as the year progresses, surely. We think, today that we're doing more mid-sized projects work sort of $500,000 million to $8 million project. And the smaller end of that, the pricing has gotten better.

John Rogers

Analyst

Okay.

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

The higher end of it, it still not as good as it was in 2007, 2008 but it certainly has improved from 2009 and 2010, John. And what we know that productivity has made that better. So we like to how we're running our construction business and we like, have backlogs building and the activity strong, that 17% up again and commercial year-over-year off of a pretty good up from 2014 and 2013 and $1.3 billion coupled with the growth we're seeing in mechanical services as I went through earlier. Pretend to us that is a good market because our guys have a lot of discipline on the kind of work they're taking. So in a small project, we're definitely seeing the uptick in the margin.

John Rogers

Analyst

Okay and then lastly, if could, I know it's a seasonally low cash quarter, but not significant buybacks this quarter. What's your thoughts on buyback opportunities or plan this year versus are you seeing more acquisition opportunities?

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

Well, we're seeing the potential for more acquisitions on a negotiated transaction basis. We don't anticipate there will be big participants in the auction process because probably equity price are still crazy, but on a negotiated basis for things that are really close to what we do, we're starting to see some opportunities in those kind of deals. So we would like to balance in more towards acquisitions this year. Until the right opportunities that can add any one of our segments and things that we already do and we absolutely are committed to buybacks, is it likely to be as heavy as it was last year. I think it depends on the pace and timing of the recovery this year and the cash leads on organic growth coupled with the acquisition environment, but one thing we did accomplish in the first quarter. We said, we would make sure that we bought back or over hang that would be part of our mantra going forward and that's what we did in the first quarter.

John Rogers

Analyst

Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Adam Thalhimer of BB&T Capital Markets

Adam Thalhimer

Analyst

Tony, the active bidding, market you cited is that broad based geographically?

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

You know, there are certain markets that haven't been broad based for 20 years now right, collectively [ph] but if you think the major markets its pretty broad based. I would say, the north east is fairly strong especially Boston, New York continues to be strong. The Mid-Atlantic although, it was probably a little more robust in 2012, it's still pretty strong today. We saw, especially some of the industrial work continues to be strong for us. We have some interesting opportunities in Florida on the water side both in South Florida, both in our Poole and Kent subsidiary and Pepper. Water restoration and water and wastewater work. Texas is a mixed bag, some of the institutional and healthcare work continues to be strong. Some of the quick-turn commercial work has turned down a little bit, not intended to fit outside. California is okay, we would like to see more large projects move through California right now, we had very good success on power generation work. We think that's going to continue especially with their aggressive carbon reduction goals and the tech factor is a tell of two worlds. The data center part of tech, which shows up wherever the segment happens for us it's institutional, shows up as institutional, if it's commercial shows up in commercial. The data center market continues to be very strong. The tech manufacturing market which was very robust for us in 2013 and 2014 has definitely turned down here in 2015. Some of the big work we do for the semiconductor and other manufacturing companies has definitely slowed down out west.

Adam Thalhimer

Analyst

Okay.

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

So I would say, you could generally say broad based with caveat on a tech.

Adam Thalhimer

Analyst

Got it and then on, trying to get a sense for, where things stand with USM because you had a very good margin order [ph] there? You're getting close to revenue being flat year-over-year. I know there is some moving pieces with contracts going on and off, but I mean when do we start seeing revenue growth again in that segment? Reckon margins go and kind of what are your thoughts on that acquisition, a few years on?

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

Well, I tell you what it did for us because we now have a real commercial site business. Its broad based and it's performing okay, not nearly as much we'd like. It performed very well on the snow side in the first quarter, we just didn't have as much snow. The underlying business outside of snow actually performed better in Q1, 2015 versus Q1, 2014. We also are starting to book some work now and the right kinds of work. So I would say the arrow was pointed up, it's not a 65% degree angle yet, Adam but it's certainly better than 25% or 30%. So we're starting to see all the hard work that we've done getting the cost structure right combined with the businesses. We've retooled the sales force. We feel pretty good of where we are, we've had some really key people on the sales side and put some of our more senior people with some of our guess [indiscernible] our mechanical services business on the sales side. We're making progress, so I can say if you look at it as the whole business, we've made good progress. If you look at just USM, we didn't make as much as we wanted. We wouldn't have fixed the whole business, we have USM. It's hard to separate some of things now because we now have a national mechanical service business we didn't have to do, which is part of the reason, you're seeing the strong bookings on the mechanical service side because it's coming from customers that now believe we have the ability to serve them nationwide on the delivery of that service. So I think overall, we're not in an A, I wouldn't even say we're at good B, but we're trending from a C plus to a B minus on that acquisition, hopefully.

Adam Thalhimer

Analyst

Okay, good. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] your next question comes from the line of Steven Folse of Stifel

Steven Folse

Analyst

First question I know that the majority of direct exposure to the oil and gas market is on the downstream side, but was any of the weakness in the industrial services business due to maybe some weakness in the capital project side and I guess, probably more relevantly are you continuing to see kind of some, let's call it contagion effect in like to - like the office in commercial markets and areas like Houston.

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

Yes, we talked about Houston for us. The way I termed it, I think on our year-end call was this. We have a very well performing mechanical company in Houston, that's the only exposure we would have to this spill over effects from upstream in the commercial segment. They perform very well, they had a pretty good 2014. They were poised to have a great 2015 and just order of magnitude, this isn't $0.15 a share improvement. This is $0.02 to $0.04 a share more they could have help make us. They were positioned to have a great 2015, now they move back to a very good 2015. We think that impact from the spill over in oil and gas for us today is less than 5%. Now as to capital side, we're not seeing yet. Where would see at EMCOR, I think would see in two places? You could see in some of our construction businesses in California to service those refiners and the reason you would see it there is, in some ways are the marginal refiner for some of these refinery operators and is all kind of issues involved with operating a refinery in California. The other place you're likely to see it with us is in new build heat exchangers. Only, in some of the midstream projects or the LNG projects with so far has been fine, but you could see it there. Now overall, with the new build heat exchanger business does for us, is it loads our plants and it allows to earn better margins on the repair work. It's not one of the higher profit things we do, but it keeps our engineer sharp and again it loads our plans with more predictable load down on the Gulf Coast. Sizing that for us, in the industrial segment it's less than 10% to 12% of what we do in the industrial segment will be new build heat exchanger servicing midstream or any type of upstream application.

Steven Folse

Analyst

Great. Thanks and then kind of a little bit of a follow on to that, with refinery strike that you saw in the quarter. It sounds like, you're expecting to get most of that back in the third or the fall turnaround season. Do you think that there is going to be anything else abnormal this year with seasonality there because of the strike? I thought maybe the second quarter would be a little bit stronger. Are you expecting that?

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

Here's what we've said and I'm sorry, we said we don't know how much of that work will come back into 2015 or 2016. We do expect a percentage to come back, right now what's been identified as coming back is less than 25%, they've actually scheduled here today. Now, is that number likely to go up? Is it likely come in forms of other work as we try to keep these refineries operating in this environment? Yes. That's the unsold opportunities we expect to happen as they're operated really high utilization. The other thing, we think sitting here today based on what we know our customers have asked us to do, is we expect a very strong fall turnaround season. As far as what happens in Q2 or Q3 or Q4, it's a very fluid situation. We are getting, we did right-sized our workforce as quick as we could in response to this and it was, it's painful. I mean, here's real number folks. We were up in January mid-teens hours year-over-year. Go out of year [ph], so our performance in Q4 was strong, our performance coming into Q1 was very strong. As Mark intimated, the RepconStrickland part of the business did very well, not just they had the right mix of customers that weren't as affected by the strike. Our legacy business, which is a very good performer had a very good fourth quarter and a pretty good first quarter of - record first quarter of 2014 had a couple very large turnarounds, now usually we celebrate when we have large turnarounds because large turnarounds drive shop work, drive the need for specialty welding services usually expand in scope. What happened here was, we were mobilizing for those large turnarounds, started in one case and was getting scheduled…

Steven Folse

Analyst

Okay, great. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Tahira Afzal of KeyBanc

Tahira Afzal

Analyst

Good job, given all the weather nuances and all in the quarter and I know there were lot of moving parts. I just, first question is around some of the heat exchanger opportunities. I know it doesn't get that much fanfare, Tony but these could be pretty interesting in terms of margin opportunities for you, maybe late this year into next year and we're seeing more LNG projects in the U.S. going through and progressing in construction. Do you think Petrochem projects are also doing the same, so we'd love to get your thought from that opportunity scope and timing versus what you've indicated in the past?

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

We like the heat exchanger business. We like the new build heat exchanger business, we like heat exchanger extraction business out of refineries, we like the heat exchanger cleaning business and we like the heat exchanger repair business, in our shops. We like all facets of the heat exchanger business like you, T. We think the opportunities are going to continue because of LNG and Petrochem. We think that we are well positioned; we would look to grow that business. We did it successfully, right after we bought Ohmstede with the acquisition of Redman which has been a terrific opportunity for us to get more exposure in the West Coast that happened within five months. We look to grow organically, the real issue for us in the heat exchanger business and what you're talking about is more specialized applications which we tend to be very good at, is engineering resources. And we have a very good engineering resources in Ohmstede business in Houston and in our shops on the repair side, we need more of it. Our constraint to growth is, engineering. As you know most of these things are customer engineer, you know it's 70% sometimes customs and sometimes it's 30% customs versus something we built before. But you know these are very specialized engineers, we train them well. We're always hiring them, we lose some. The one silver lining of the slowdown in some of the CapEx upstream is less people are competing for engineers that are "broadly in oil and gas". We think that gives us an opportunity to grow our engineering force and finally we were always looking for the right acquisitions, whether they're small niche acquisitions or larger ones in the space and sometimes these companies come as part of something else and sometimes they're standalone. But in general, we like heat exchanger, the model looks very much like our fabrications shops on the pipe side, how do you think about it and how you price it? The shop repair work is very similar, the way we think about repairs and overall at EMCOR and how they're priced. And so we do like the business and we're going to continue to look to grow it organically first always and if the right transaction came up, we would jump on it, but that's a hard thing to do. I mean, it's been a stagnant space for a long time on the acquisition side.

Tahira Afzal

Analyst

Got it, Tony and Tony if you look at the last peak of the cycle and I assume it was around 2007, 2008 you know for Ohmstede. Where would the margins of the overall heat exchanger business be directionally today versus where they were at that point and do you think you can get them up there again just based on the activity levels you're seeing?

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

They're down from there, they're still very healthy but they're down. Mark, maybe add to that I mean, well I don't think they'll get back to where they were there, but we think they can improve.

Mark Pompa

Analyst

T, you may recollect surely after we've made our initial investment in this space that we were looking at operating margins that were approaching 20%. Clearly pricing has not recovered in the current market to those levels. I like to think as we move forward we're going to see improvement from our recently reported margins. I just think with some of the things that did change structurally in that market sector that pricing is not going to get back to those older historical levels, but I like to be proven wrong in that front.

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

And Mark's number on the shop side. If you're talking about the 20%.

Tahira Afzal

Analyst

Got it. Second question, Tony, if I look back you had, you've done the right thing I assume by diversifying the business to make the troughs and peaks less pronounced and so the earnings become more consistent. But therefore I look back in 2009 because you were more concentrated and you think the lag benefit of construction cycle on the non-res side, your operating margins, touched and went slightly above 5%. Do you need all your businesses right now to work together in tandem to really deliver 5% plus operating margins over the next year or two or do you think that the momentum you're seeing on the non-res side will be sufficient on its own?

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

I mean, we're getting closer, when you look what we did last year. Clearly, as it mixes more towards a construction improvement especially in mechanical. We think electrical margins will get back to what they are, the way I think about the business, T is, if our electrical guys can operate 6.5, 7, 7.5 somewhere near on the sustained basis. Once a while, they'll buffer little bit above that sometimes it will a bit below that. I'm talking about an annual basis or a sort of 6.25 look back. For mechanical guys can operate 5, 3 to 6. But we can get building services into the mid 4's and if we can get industrial last year, we finished at close to 8 and if we can get that a little bit above 8, we can get the 5. So they don't all have to be at optimal levels, they could be in that range and we can get there and it depends on the mix. We do think, we're in an environment now. We'll, I think sort of the untold story on SG&A in the first quarter was actually a positive one. I mean we got all the stuff going on with insurance year-over-year and some of that had to do with actuarial changes last year and is a whole bunch of things that go into that right, but the biggest thing when you look at the positive story on SG&A. We got 11% backlog build and in our fixed cost structure which is not the unobserved part industrial, we had 2% headcount built. So we think we can do a lot more work with not adding a whole lot of people and so we expect, we said that for a while, we expect to get leverage on our SG&A…

Tahira Afzal

Analyst

Thanks.

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

All right.

Tahira Afzal

Analyst

That's helpful, Tony. I mean, end of the day, you know it seems your implied margins right now in the operating side based on your guidance let's say around 4.5% or so, I guess my question is, let's take our USM and snow, let's take our refining getting much better than wherever it ends at this year. Can you still on the commercial side see enough of a pop into next year, where do you see margins coming close to that 5% mark?

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

I'd say it depends on how much SG&A leverage, we get in the mix of work we have. Mark, what would you attribute on it?

Mark Pompa

Analyst

Yes and I think clearly, T, when you look back at some of those historical results. We had a lot of other noise in the system I think and one of the things that we've done a very good job over the last two or three years is eliminate a lot of other earnings distractions being the internal earnings distractions or lack thereof. So we certainly don't need to have to hit a home run or a grand slam to get to those levels, but to re-echo what Tony said, I think we have to be within a reasonable range of the midpoint of historical earnings by segment. And as Tony said, mix is a big driver so for whatever reason if industrial becomes a larger percentage of the total, you're going to see a much more significant move in overall operating margins of the company conversely, if the UK ends up pushing through some more volume at higher levels, you know because it's been such a drag in the past. I think it's going to make a significant difference as well. I think, we've done a good job of stabilizing thing. Clearly the discipline that we've executed or demonstrated with regards to project selection and customer selection has paid off over the long-term and we're optimistic that you're going to see that in our results, as we go forward and hopefully we get some sustained period of broader economic that favourability that we haven't experienced now for a number of years.

Tahira Afzal

Analyst

Got it, okay. Thanks a folks.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions. Management, do you have any closing remarks?

Tony Guzzi

Analyst

Thank you very much for your interest in EMCOR today. I said, we're not big excuse makers here, but we thought it was really important to understand how some of these external factors impacted us here in the quarter, they were unusual. We certainly look to build on very good underlying fundamentals in our business and look forward to talking to you in July, with our second quarter call. Thank you very much.