Earnings Labs

Eastman Chemical Company (EMN)

Q4 2007 Earnings Call· Fri, Jan 25, 2008

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day everyone and welcome to the Eastman Chemical Company Fourth Quarter 2007 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. This call is being broadcast live on the Eastman's web site, www.eastman.com. We'll now turn the call over to Mr. Greg Riddle of the Eastman Chemical Company, Investor Relations. Please go ahead sir.

Greg Riddle - Director, Investor Relations

Management

Thanks Matt and good morning everyone, and thank you for joining us. On the call with me today are Brian Ferguson, Chairman and CEO; Rich Lorraine, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer and Jennifer Bogni, Manager, Investor Relations. Before we begin, I will cover two items. First, during this call you will hear certain forward-looking statements concerning our plans and expectations for first quarter and full-year 2008 and for 2008 through 2012. Actual results could differ materially from our plans and expectations. Certain factors related to future expectations are or will be detailed in the company's fourth quarter and full-year 2007 financial results news release and the news release being issued this morning and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Form 10-Q filed for third quarter 2007 and the Form 10-K to be filed for full-year 2007. Second, unless otherwise mentioned references to historical sales revenue and earnings are non-GAAP financial measures, which exclude restructuring-related items, identified in the financial results news release. A reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure and other associated disclosures, including a description of the restructuring-related items are available on our financial results news release and the conference call tables accompanying the news release. With that I'll turn it over to Brian.

J. Brian Ferguson - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Operator

Hi good morning everyone and welcome. Thank you for joining us today. As usual, I'll give you some highlights for 2007 and then I'll talk a bit about 2008, and I'll wrap up with conversation about corporate strategy. Last night, we announced fourth-quarter 2007 earnings per share from continuing operations of $1.25 and excluding restructuring items, the earnings per share were at $1.27. Our solid fourth quarter was the conclusion of what was another very strong year for Eastman. Full-year earnings per share on a continuing basis were $5.06 and when combined with 2005 and 2006, this is the best three-year stretch of earnings in our history. We did a number of things right in 2007. On this same continuing basis, our sales revenue increased by 11% and our operating margin was 11%. And the strong operating margin was despite an increase of approximately $250 million in raw material and energy cost. There has been a lot of hard work that has enabled us to sustain a high level of earnings. It starts with Eastman employees around the world, who have done really a fantastic job of operating our facilities safely and reliably, so that we can provide our customers with world-class innovative products. It also reflects the fact that we have kept our commitments made to you over several years. For example we told you we would divest the under performing businesses in the CASPI segment and we did and CASPI has been stronger ever since. We told you we would improve our financial position and continue to be disciplined as we put cash to work. Today our balance sheet is the strongest it's ever been. We continue to pay a strong dividend as we have every quarter since we became a public company in 1994. We purchased almost…

Richard A. Lorraine - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst

Thank you Brian and good morning everybody. That was a pretty tough act to follow, but hear I ago. Before my begin with my remarks, I do want to second Brian's comments that we are very confident and excited about the value we are going to create over the next five years and beyond that. It has taken a lot of hard work to strengthen ourselves and get to where we are, and it will take a lot of hard work to go where we want to go. But I'm very confident that we as a company have what it takes to get there. With that said. I'll get started with my comments. This morning I'll cover our restructuring related items, provide a little more color around our cash flow and net debt, touch on our effective tax rate and finish up with some overall financial metrics. First as Brian mentioned, we have taken a number of significant strategic actions in our Performance Polymer segment during 2007. During the second quarter, we divested our PET facility in Spain, and in the fourth quarter, we entered into definitive agreements to divest our Netherlands PET and PTA facilities, as well as our PET facility in the UK. And those are our last two PET facilities outside the US. Netherlands and UK closing is scheduled later this quarter and will be recognizing a gain on the transaction. As a result of these actions, we now have GAAP measure in our results for discontinued operations. For reporting purposes, the European PET assets were considered an asset group, and because we're exiting the PET business in the European region, results from the Spain, Netherlands and UK facilities will be reported as discontinued operations in our results. Looking at the fourth quarter of 2007 that will…

Jennifer Bogni - Manager, Investor Relations.

Analyst

Thank you Rich. This concludes our prepared remarks, and Matt I believe with that we're ready for questions. Question and Answer

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. We will go first to P.J. Juvekar with Citi.

P.J. Juvekar - Citigroup

Analyst

Good morning Brian.

J. Brian Ferguson - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Operator

Good morning P.J.

P.J. Juvekar - Citigroup

Analyst

Let me play devil's advocate with you. Let's say US goes into recession and oil is down to $60 in 2008. If that occurs, would you still go ahead with your coal gasification projects and do you believe you will get financing?

J. Brian Ferguson - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Operator

Absolutely yes in both cases. The basic math we have done for the coal gas economics basically assumes $60 oil and something in the neighborhood of $8 gas. Also remember that recessions are things that play out in months and this vision we have described to you plays out over many years, [inaudible] to the bump in the road. If I think about Eastman having to face the recession, I cannot think of a time in our history when we are better positioned or were better positioned than we are now. We've got this very strong balance sheet, we've got a very strong credit rating, we have lots of cash generation. So, I don't anticipate anything slowing that down.

P.J. Juvekar - Citigroup

Analyst

Okay.

J. Brian Ferguson - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Operator

As far as the financing is concerned, I'll let Rich comment on that.

Richard A. Lorraine - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst

P.J., I think the projects will stand on their own two feet. We are confident that the financing will be there for us.

P.J. Juvekar - Citigroup

Analyst

And the second broader questions is, you licensed your acetic acid technology to this Taiwanese company, to Sipchem. Now you are going to license IntegRex. As these new players come in, use your technology and add capacity, have you thought through what is the real impact on your existing businesses when the new capacity gets added?

J. Brian Ferguson - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Operator

Absolutely. I mean the whole point, whenever you get into the licensing world, you've to imagine what is it going to be like if the world is swimming in that particular commodity and how much do you like it. We've absolutely thought through that, we're very comfortable that especially in IntegRex case, we are going to create an awful lot of value. That is a great technology that is going to result in multiple licenses across the world. And we think that's going to create a better value equation for us than some of the alternative choices.

P.J. Juvekar - Citigroup

Analyst

And just lastly, in terms of cost, how does your acetic acid technology compare with Celanese's technology? Thank you.

J. Brian Ferguson - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Operator

I can't really comment on that. The fact that we're getting licensees, the fact that we've been going head to head with these other guys in the world for a very, very long time tells you that we're very competitive. And that's about as far as I can go on that.

P.J. Juvekar - Citigroup

Analyst

Thank You.

Operator

Operator

We'll go next to the Kevin McCarthy with Banc of America Securities.

Kevin McCarthy - Banc of America Securities

Analyst

Yes. Good morning Brian.

J. Brian Ferguson - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Operator

Good morning.

Kevin McCarthy - Banc of America Securities

Analyst

With regard to your $2 contribution from the Coal Gasification initiatives, can you talk a little bit about the assumptions that are going into that and the confidence interval you have around that number given the contracts and potential fluctuation in energy prices, that sort of thing.

J. Brian Ferguson - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Operator

Sure. First of all, when we talk about $2, it's a combination of the IRR from the equity investment and the value that's created by the off tick. So, the off tick is not a trivial part of the value creation, it’s a significant contributor. Of course we're going for non-recourse debt financing on these projects and to secure that, there has to be some kind of an equation in the contracts that indexes selling prices to raw material costs. So, that generally locks in some kind of a margin now, we've a contracting strategy to protect that financing covenant, but also provide for upside. So, you mix it up in the way that you do the contracting, that's something the guys are working on. But we feel very confident about taking out the market risk through that process. The assumptions on CapEx, we still have about $1.2 billion per project and of course we're going to see... $1.6 billion sorry per project. We're going through the feed process to confirm that. The gas price that is sort of the key commodity that you want to look at, to see if you have a good spread between coal and petrol versus other hydrocarbon. We're assuming that price is in the neighborhood of $8, if the $8 doesn't change potentially and that yields roughly $6 spread between the solid and the other hydrocarbon that you're trading up again. We feel good about that, the combination of geopolitics, scarcity and potentially global climate change policies looks like it's going to support that spread at a very least, it may even get a bit wider. So, we feel I guess we've looked at it several ways, we know how, Kevin, we feel pretty good about them.

Kevin McCarthy - Banc of America Securities

Analyst

So, just a follow up. If the energy complex were to inflate 20%, let's say versus your assumptions. How much would the $2 number fluctuate, do you think?

J. Brian Ferguson - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Operator

When you say the energy complex, you are talking about the CapEx?

Kevin McCarthy - Banc of America Securities

Analyst

Sorry, crude oil and natural gas.

J. Brian Ferguson - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Operator

Actually that's... the key issue with the spread is that spread between solid hydrocarbons and oil and natural gas. I would expect based on what's going on in the world that the inflation happens more quickly to the oil, natural gas community than it does to the coal, PETCO community.

Kevin McCarthy - Banc of America Securities

Analyst

Right.

J. Brian Ferguson - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Operator

And that broadens spread, which actually improves our margins.

Kevin McCarthy - Banc of America Securities

Analyst

Right. I'm wondering, how much would it improve in that scenario, do you think? Possible to quantify that?

J. Brian Ferguson - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Operator

No.

Kevin McCarthy - Banc of America Securities

Analyst

Okay.

J. Brian Ferguson - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Operator

Yes, I guess we are speculating about the spread.

Kevin McCarthy - Banc of America Securities

Analyst

Yes. Okay and then let's follow up on PET licensing. How would you characterize this financial opportunity from that new initiative over the next three to five years, how big could that be?

J. Brian Ferguson - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Operator

We are going to do that for you Kevin. I think the main announcement we made today is that essentially we are not pursuing our new plants of our own, we are not pursuing a JV of our own. We've chosen this licensing, because it creates the most... the best combination of value versus risk. I will tell you that it doesn't take many licenses to create a whole lot of value and then compete very well with the other choices that we had. So, we feel… I'm not going to... you don't want me to size the price of a license on a telephone line before we've negotiated them, Kevin.

Kevin McCarthy - Banc of America Securities

Analyst

Fair enough. And last question is, you shut down the crackers, what do you expect in terms of impact to your contract ethylene sales and PCI profitability?

J. Brian Ferguson - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Operator

Yes, those were never all that profitable, right. That was mostly about volume, which is why we call them out separately, so you don't get so excited about the volumes we saw there. Those were always part of the accommodation for the sales process. As they go away, the volume and sales dollars will go away, but there is not a lot of earnings at... it’s pretty much a loss most of the time, year in year out.

Kevin McCarthy - Banc of America Securities

Analyst

Thank you Brian.

J. Brian Ferguson - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Operator

Yes.

Operator

Operator

We'll go next to Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

Jeff Zekauskas - JPMorgan

Analyst

Hi, good morning.

J. Brian Ferguson - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive

Analyst

Good morning Jeff.

Jeff Zekauskas - JPMorgan

Analyst

A few questions, what was the tax rate on the acetyls licensing?

Richard A. Lorraine - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst

That was our ordinary tax rate, our effective tax rate,

Jeff Zekauskas - JPMorgan

Analyst

Why is it so high?

Richard A. Lorraine - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst

Our effective tax rate is high, because our primary tax jurisdiction is the United States.

Jeff Zekauskas - JPMorgan

Analyst

What was the EPS effect from currency translation and hedging gains in the quarter?

Richard A. Lorraine - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst

Jeff, I'm not going to say much about hedging gains, other than we have a very active risk mitigation program, and it's the risk we take and it's not something I want to call out and have our customers they think that it should be theirs.

Jeff Zekauskas - JPMorgan

Analyst

Okay, how about currency translation, do you comment on that?

Richard A. Lorraine - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst

Well, we have a very strong euro. So, as Brian noted and as you can see in the results of several of our product areas that do export aggressively such as CASPI and specialty plastics, our earnings have held up very well and that's partially driven by the opportunities to sell in Europe. We did say in our other income area, we have some currency gains primarily that's across the receivables that we hold and the fact that they actually got more valuable as they stayed on our books until we collected them. But again it's... you can make a judgment on the value of the improvement in euro by the size of our exports to Europe.

Jeff Zekauskas - JPMorgan

Analyst

Brian, why have you lowered your expectations about PET margins in '08 or what was the factor that led you to move them down?

J. Brian Ferguson - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Operator

Well, remember we're still holding to the 10% of the expectation. The...

Jeff Zekauskas - JPMorgan

Analyst

Yes, you moved it back.

J. Brian Ferguson - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Operator

Moved it back a bit. The... there is some very good news actually related to that, as we went through the evolution of the engineering, looking at how to debottleneck gathering all the data. We actually identified a much larger debottleneck that we can accomplish than we had originally anticipated when we first made the comments to you. The consequence of accomplishing that bigger debottleneck is that it moves it about five or six months. So, a very good outcome, lots of value to be created, but it takes a few more months to get it done.

Jeff Zekauskas - JPMorgan

Analyst

Okay. Just two more brief questions, if you don't mind. When you talk about growth in 2009, what's your PCI expectation? Do you have that business going back to a 5% margin or staying at about 10%? How do you frame that in your '09 forecast?

J. Brian Ferguson - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Operator

It's coming down. I'm not going to give you the exact number in there. It's part of that cycle that's going on. We are much less cyclical in PCI than we were before because of many things that we have done there.

Jeff Zekauskas - JPMorgan

Analyst

And then lastly in your four-year or five-year forecast where you have your $10 estimate, are there any earnings from commodity PET in that number?

J. Brian Ferguson - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Operator

Sure. We have the South Carolina facility humming along at this expanded rate with a very good cost position creating value above 10%. So, absolutely [inaudible] in there. Remember that South Carolina site is evolving overtime every time we keep on encroaching on PET capacity and converting it to specialty plastics. So it will be a moving number over time.

Jeff Zekauskas - JPMorgan

Analyst

Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

We will go next to Frank Mitsch with BB&T Capital Market. Frank Mitsch - BB&T Capital Markets: Good morning gentleman.

J. Brian Ferguson - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Operator

Good morning Frank. Frank Mitsch - BB&T Capital Markets: Brian, in terms of your volumes, you are saying that you have not seen a slowdown in your businesses, and I saw that Caterpillar said on their tape today that they believe we are in a recessionary environment. If we are looking at past recessions, when would Eastman see a slowdown in its volume? Would it see it concurrently with the recession, would it see it in advance of the recession? Can you shed a little light on that?

J. Brian Ferguson - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Operator

I can make a guess, but then it would probably be wrong Frank, because it all depends on how much stuff there is in the supply chain. Our sense is that there is less stuff in the supply chain today than there has been in past years. So, I would expect to see it sooner rather than later. We did indicate to you that North America was a lower volume year, on a continuing basis it was a little bit better. We have seen some fall off in the fourth quarter, but it's the overall rise across the globe that has shored that up. So, some of that rise, we saw some dramatic rises in Asia Pacific and Europe. It is because we were able to move to profitable markets there when things got softer here. Frank Mitsch - BB&T Capital Markets: So in your view, if you see it... if you suggest that you would see it sooner then you have in past recessions that's fairly bullish for '08, or at least the start of '08.

J. Brian Ferguson - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Operator

It's bullish for the first half of the first quarter, Frank. That's all I can tell you, because the visibility on those books doesn't go after a long period of time as you know. Frank Mitch - BB&T Capital Markets: Which brings you to my second question, in the fourth... when you announced third-quarter results, you said the fourth quarter would be above $1. And here you are coming in 27% higher. You're saying that for the first quarter you're going to be above $1.19. So should we be looking at a number 27% higher like $1.50 for the first quarter?

Richard A. Lorraine - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst

You should be looking for a number that's above $1.19, Frank. Frank Mitch - BB&T Capital Markets: And lastly, you explained why you are expecting to see the PET margin improvement a little bit later and some of the milestones that we will be seeing along the way in terms of the debottleneck. Can you give us some of the near-term milestones in terms of your coal gasification project, in terms of financing and so we can monitor how you're keeping on track to ultimately get to a doubling of earnings?

J. Brian Ferguson - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Operator

Yes, we can. We are actually going to be printing our press release here this morning that should have some of those milestones down. But the next milestone is the FEED process concluding… FEED stands for front-end engineering and design. That's later this summer. That's where we lock at the CapEx and have all the data, have the contracts in hand so we can go seek the financing. The financial close is the next milestone we should look for. Financial close means we've gone to secure the financing, contracts were in place, we let the contracts to the contractors, etc. Then the next milestone after that is breaking ground in 2009. So, permitting... if you break ground in 2009 means you've accomplished your permits also. So, those are the three major milestones that would be external to you. There may be a few other and immediate ones we can refer to but those are the major ones. Frank Mitch - BB&T Capital Markets: All right. [inaudible] that in the press release.

J. Brian Ferguson - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Operator

Yes. Frank Mitch - BB&T Capital Markets: Terrific. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We'll go next to Gregg Goodnight with UBS.

Gregg Goodnight - UBS

Analyst

Good morning. Good morning. Couple of questions. In terms of your share buyback, you've repurchased $380 million, but if I'm correct, a lot of that was with the former $300 million authorization and now you've have the $700 million authorization. How do you see the timing going forward? When are you going to take a big bite out of that $700 million.

Richard A. Lorraine - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst

Gregg, we've continued to buy here in January of course. I'd say we're going to continue to be thoughtful about it, but at the same time, we are going to be opportunistic about it. So, I take this and we look at it on a day-by-day basis.

Gregg Goodnight - UBS

Analyst

You don't have a target, a rough target for completing this in 12 months, 18 months, anything we can look at in model?

Richard A. Lorraine - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst

Again, it much depends on where the share price goes. If it's down, we'll be opportunistic. If it's up, we'll be more measured.

Gregg Goodnight - UBS

Analyst

Okay. Well, it seems like it's been down recently. But anyway your... the other question I had is, it seems like you've some very aggressive plans for growth and share buyback and you yourselves had said that you're assuming good cash flow in the immediate future. I have really two questions. Number one is, what is your base case economic assumptions going forward, is it a US recession case, is it continued global strength? And number two, if the economy does get worse, would you be willing to sacrifice either say your share repurchase or let that go up in order to maintain your aggressive growth plans?

Richard A. Lorraine - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst

Gregg, let me answer it this way. We've... our base case does not include a severe recession, but we've got alternative scenarios, which we built internally to try to get arms around. What might the impact be to the company in the phase of a significant recession? The question that we ask ourselves, can we continue to invest in our strategic initiatives in the way we've planned, and in the timing we planned and if we do hit that kind of a bump in the road, and my short answer is we believe very strongly that we will be able to stay the course, invest in our strategic initiatives as we go forward.

Gregg Goodnight - UBS

Analyst

Will you be able to maintain your current debt level in that scenario where you do have a major recession?

Richard A. Lorraine - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst

Gregg, the short answer is yes. We model quite extensively our ability to retain our strong investment credit rating, and that's where we want to stay and we believe that we can withstand the recession, invest in our strategic initiatives and retain that rating.

J. Brian Ferguson - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Operator

Remember Gregg, we got very little net debt right now, we are low. So a little more debt wouldn't actually be the end of the world, would it?

Richard A. Lorraine - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst

No. And we don't have... and our bond maturities are such that we don't have a major call on cash in the coming years.

Gregg Goodnight - UBS

Analyst

Yes. Would you rank your priorities on use of cash for me?

Richard A. Lorraine - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst

Number one, strategic initiatives. We are... maintained a dividend clearly and obviously the pension plan is well for our employees. And of course for share repurchase.

Gregg Goodnight - UBS

Analyst

Pension plan is fully funded?

Richard A. Lorraine - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst

Yes fully funded. But you know as time goes on, if we need to fund it, we will.

Gregg Goodnight - UBS

Analyst

Okay, thank you gentlemen.

Operator

Operator

We will go next to Bob Goldberg with Scopus Asset Management. Bob Goldberg – Scopus Asset Management: Good morning guys

J. Brian Ferguson - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive

Analyst

Good morning.

Richard A. Lorraine - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst

Good morning.

Bob Goldberg - Scopus Asset Management

Analyst

I had a bunch of questions, but I do have to make a comment on the share buyback. I assume you have confidence in this forecast of doubling earnings, that you get $10 by 2012, it sounds like it's been very well thought out. Think you believe in those numbers. The stock is trading at six times earnings and about 3.5 times enterprise value-to-EBITDA. So given that context, does it really matter Rich if the stock is trading at 60 or 58 or 64 in terms of the level of enthusiasm for the stock buyback? It just seems like if you believe in the forecast, any of these prices in this range are just very compelling opportunities for the company to take advantage of.

Richard A. Lorraine - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst

Bob, I guess I'll just say absolutely yes. We bought shares at a lot of different prices over the last months. Our initial authorization ended up at about $64. We bought some at just about every price level and I agree with you that the... it's a compelling buy. Again we are... we're being opportunistic the same way you'd be when you want to increase your position in Eastman and you look for the opportunity to get in it at a price you feel is a good one and we're doing the same thing. So... but the short answer is, yes. We feel like the range of share prices we've seen over recent months is... it's a strong buy and that's what we are doing.

Bob Goldberg - Scopus Asset Management

Analyst

A couple of detailed questions Rich, while I have you. What are the net proceeds expected from the sale of the European PTA and PTA assets?

Richard A. Lorraine - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst

That is about $330 million. Yes, and that includes working capital.

Bob Goldberg - Scopus Asset Management

Analyst

And that's after tax though? Is there a tax associated?

Richard A. Lorraine - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst

We don't have a major... major tax to pay on that.

Bob Goldberg - Scopus Asset Management

Analyst

Okay and one more detail question. Maybe I'm not sure who is going to answer this, but PET, the loss of $15 million on the US business on an operating basis. How much... how much is in there for expenses associated with this transformation process and how much of the $53 million loss for the year is cost that would be associated with that process?

J. Brian Ferguson - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Operator

Bob, it was more than half. That's about as far as I want to go. It's more than half of the $53 million loss.

Bob Goldberg - Scopus Asset Management

Analyst

And when does that start to... this is wind down by the end of the second quarter or when do these transitional costs, when are they fully absorbed?

J. Brian Ferguson - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Operator

The vast majority of them are absorbed by the end of the second quarter. We carefully appreciate how much we are tearing up that facility, and how much work is going on. And then it's all in good shape there, the last shoot a drop of course is the debottleneck and it requires a couple of shutdowns in the second half of the year for us to do this 50% debottleneck of the IntegRex facility. So, there is a little bit of cost that hangs over to the latter part of the year. When you go into 2009, then you are hitting on all cylinders.

Bob Goldberg - Scopus Asset Management

Analyst

Should we expect to see any sequential improvement in the PET business from the fourth quarter?

J. Brian Ferguson - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Operator

Absolutely.

Bob Goldberg - Scopus Asset Management

Analyst

And then lastly, Brian, on the guidance for the year, last year you gave guidance of something below, something less than 10% relative to the 453 consensus estimate for the 2007 at that time, and you ended up doing 506 close to about $0.75 better than the mid point of guidance? I am not going to ask you... if it is a guidance of $0.75, but it is very difficult given the segment guidance that you gave to get to 506. Are you just baking in a much less robust macro economic outlook? I'm just wondering what's baked into that guidance to get to the 506 because it seems like given the outlook for each segment that earnings could be perhaps somewhat better than that?

J. Brian Ferguson - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Operator

Well. The world was very kind to us last year. We had some great things that happened when some people ran force majeure in certain businesses, and we have benefited from that, because we could operate when they couldn't. And that had something to do with the out performance of this past year. You can't expect that to happen again this year. So, we didn't cook that into the numbers. Our expenditures are going up of course for some of the transformational work we are doing in South Carolina. We are also spending more money in the gasification world as we start to crank up these big projects. In the press release, you're going to see a whole lot of growth initiatives in especially plastics transforming PET, expanding fibers, there is a lot of stuff going on in 2008, a very pivotal year. And all of those eat into the expense line. So, if we had not had those things going on, yes, it could very well have been a better year, but the net of all the activity, we are going on with the internal activity plus, frankly, give me a little bit of those leeway here, we have a very uncertain world in front of us. We feel like the guidance we gave you is appropriate.

Bob Goldberg - Scopus Asset Management

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. We go to Charles [inaudible] with the Morgan Stanley Company.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Good morning.

J. Brian Ferguson - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Operator

Good morning, Charlie.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Couple of quick questions. Have you guys gotten... if you get closer, I guess to locking down some of the numbers on the coal gasification stuff? Have you noticed any sort of de-escalation in some of the prices, maybe they are coming back a little bit, because we've been seeing some project work. You know some freeing up of resources, things like that have begun to pull down some of these earlier estimates on construction costs. Is that shown up at all in the project?

J. Brian Ferguson - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Operator

It's hard to me to tell right now Charlie, but that is actually one of the windfalls. Maybe we talked about the down size of our recession. This is one of the upsides of our recession. The biggest thing everybody is worried about right now is CapEx and one of the best things that could happen to us on a very capital intensive program is for a recession to slow that down. And yes, there is a lot of close watching of that and we are trying to account for whatever is happening there as we do our CapEx estimates and that would give us some hope that it's not going to head in the wrong direction in any kind of meaningful way. But this work is still... it is only about half way through. So, it is just too early to call.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay. Another quick one on… there are obviously some questions about next year's guidance and it being a little bit on the low side. But I guess, this year, the fourth quarter there was some benefit, particularly I guess for the year on the acetyl site. So, I'm assuming we are bringing the acetyl numbers down a bit to something more, what other companies would call sustainable levels?

J. Brian Ferguson - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Operator

Yes. That's correct.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

And then does '08 include any PET licensing?

J. Brian Ferguson - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Operator

We have not built anything like that in there yet. And that would be the answer.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Greg Riddle - Director, Investor Relations

Management

Let's make the next question the last one please.

Operator

Operator

And we'll go to Andy Feinman with Iridian Asset Management.

Andrew Feinman - Iridian Asset Management

Analyst

Thanks. Do you think that the Fibers' operating profit will get back to 25% in 2008?

Richard A. Lorraine - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst

I guess Andy the guidance we gave is that, this is always the chunky business but we think that the best call we can make for Fibers is that it's going to look next year like it did this year.

Andrew Feinman - Iridian Asset Management

Analyst

Okay. That is a little different than what you said last quarter about your Fibers' operating margin.

J. Brian Ferguson - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Operator

Yes. That's... we're going to be a little later on the Fibers expansion. It's taking a little more time in the UK. So, maybe 2008... 2009 a bit better. But we've had construction delay in Fibers and this bigger expansion of PET that pushed two projects back in 2008.

Andrew Feinman - Iridian Asset Management

Analyst

Okay. In CapEx, you've talked about, you've included some Coal Gasification CapEx. But the project you haven't broken ground yet, you don't have the financing yet. So, I was wondering what that was and how much of the $620 million or how much of the capital spending was… $625 million, how much is going to that?

J. Brian Ferguson - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Operator

I'll give you a piece of that and I'll let Rich to the rest. We're... because of long schedules and very full shops, we're doing some early ordering of equipment in the gasification projects, to make sure that things will be on time. So, what you risk there, of course, is cancellation fees. But we'll be doing some early ordering even before we get some other things done like permitting and some of the FEED processes etcetera. And you invest the money to get those things done. As far as it’s percentage in the CapEx budget, I'm not sure…

Richard A. Lorraine - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst

Yes. I'm not prepared here to break all of that out. But the other piece of the gasification is paying for the FEED process. And, so and there're some land purchases in here too around getting the site ready. So, it's a part of that build up Andy, but the major ramp-up of construction cost of course comes in 2009 and beyond.

Andrew Feinman - Iridian Asset Management

Analyst

So, paying for the FEED process that's capitalized?

Richard A. Lorraine - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst

Yes. We've paid for the FEED process and capitalized it. We buy the land and we talked about the plant that we purchased before, and as Brian said, we've got some long lead items that we'll be putting some money down. So...

Andrew Feinman - Iridian Asset Management

Analyst

Okay. You said that the PET revenue in North America was $1 billion after the stuff you're selling. Can you say, how much of it would be on a full-year basis, or after you close the 300,000 tons of legacy capacity?

J. Brian Ferguson - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Operator

I'm going to let Greg walk you through the pluses and minuses math on all of that, maybe offline Andy.

Andrew Feinman - Iridian Asset Management

Analyst

Okay. That's fine.

J. Brian Ferguson - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive

Analyst

That's probably the best way to do that, because if I did it here right now, I'm bound to do it wrong. Remember we're shutting down, we shut down 100 last year, shutting down 300 more this year, that's a total of 400 being coming down. The math of the last IntegRex facility is 550,000, but that's not the only PET. We have other lines running, so that's where I get messed up in trying to help you...

Andrew Feinman - Iridian Asset Management

Analyst

Yes that fine, I'll talk to Greg. I just got two more quick things. I had... first of all, your net debt is $719 million, so you're going to get $333 million from sale of the European PET. You're going to pay $150 million dollar dividend and if you have your earnings estimate of $5.05 and you... that will give you free cash flow for the full year of around $100 million from operations, even though you spent $625 million. So, that assumes that your net debt in 2008 without doing anymore buybacks would drop form $719 million to something like $435 million, if you didn't buyback anymore stock. And I wanted to know if I'm got that right.

Richard A. Lorraine - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst

Yes you're pretty close Andy, your math is pretty close. We've given you all those numbers.

Andrew Feinman - Iridian Asset Management

Analyst

Okay. So the last comment that I would like to make is to echo Bob Goldberg and to say that the more shares you get now when the price is cheap, because if all your numbers are right, you know, the days of $69 dollar stock are numbered or even $62 stock are numbered. And you have got to make hay while the sun shines, because if you are going to spend $700 million, you're going to get more shares now at this price, which is going to be better for all of us [inaudible] residual earnings per share will go up more for us. So, I would encourage you to... I mean you could sign up with a brokerage firm and get the whole thing done tomorrow and let them take the risk and something like that I think would make sense.

Richard A. Lorraine - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analyst

Well, Andy, your basic logic is not lost on us of course, and you saw how we have behaved over the last several months. So that's all I can say and all I'll say, but thank you for that advice. I'd appreciate that and you're also showing again the reason why we are not really expecting a recessionary situation to cause us any kind of a slowdown in our activity, because we do have the cash and the debt capacity to work with here.

Andrew Feinman - Iridian Asset Management

Analyst

I'm sorry that I.... just sort of one last thing I wanted to say. The PET margin that you estimated was low-single digits for this year, and I was only… even though I thought it'd get to 10% in the second half, I was only assuming 1% for the full year because of the first half. So really you're going to do better than I thought, because I assume low single digits doesn't necessarily mean 1%.

J. Brian Ferguson - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Operator

Yes I'm glad to hear that, that's good.

Andrew Feinman - Iridian Asset Management

Analyst

Am I correct?

J. Brian Ferguson - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Operator

I stand with low single digits, and digits is plural. So, yes.

Andrew Feinman - Iridian Asset Management

Analyst

All right, thanks.

J. Brian Ferguson - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Operator

All right Greg.

Greg Riddle - Director, Investor Relations

Management

Okay. Thanks again for joining us this morning everybody. An audio replay of this conference call will be available this afternoon through Friday, February 1 and have a great day.

Operator

Operator

Once again that does concludes today's call. Again thank you for your participation and have a good day.