Good day and welcome to the Emerson Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Colleen Mettler, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Good morning, and thank you for joining us for Emerson's fourth quarter and full year 2023 earnings conference call. Today I am joined by President and Chief Executive Officer, Lal Karsanbhai; Chief Financial Officer, Mike Baughman; and Chief Operating Officer, Ram Krishnan. As always, I encourage everyone to follow along with the slide presentation, which is available on our website. Please join me on Slide 2. This presentation may include forward-looking statements which contain a degree of business risk and uncertainty. Please take time to read the safe harbor Statement and note on the non-GAAP measures. I will now pass the call over to Emerson's President and CEO, Lal Karsanbhai, for his opening remarks.

Thank you, Colleen. Good morning. 2023 was an exceptional year for Emerson. The management team, alongside the Board of Directors, boldly delivered across the three dimensions of our value creation strategy. Firstly, culture. Our management team just completed a trip around the world where we had the opportunity to engage with our customers and our teams. It was an energizing trip and it was evident to me that the changes we are driving in the culture of Emerson are embraced as evidenced by our engagement survey. 2023 was an important year. We made significant progress across multiple dimensions of culture. We rolled out an employee value proposition, advanced our diversity and inclusion metrics, and made significant strides in our sustainability targets as well as launching a differentiated talent engine program. Second, our portfolio transformation is largely complete. The Copeland divestiture and more importantly, the acquisition of NI have enabled us to create an Emerson focused on automation with a cohesive, higher growth, higher profit margin, diversified portfolio aligned to the critical macro secular drivers, energy security and affordability, near assuring, sustainability and decarbonization, and digital transformation. I would like to welcome Ritu Favre and the NI family to Emerson. This is an exciting time. With NI, our technology stack is unequaled, and we are in position to continue to push the boundaries of automation to meet our customers' needs. Thirdly, execution. The Emerson management system is delivering differentiated results. Underlying sales for 2023 grew 10%. GPE expanded 330 basis points to 49%. And adjusted Segment EBITDA expanded 220 basis points to 25% after delivering yet another year of over 50% leverage. Adjusted earnings per share in 2023 grew 22% to $4.44 and free cash flow was $2.4 billion. Orders growth exited the year at 5% and we grew across all…

Thanks, Lal, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide 11 that summarizes our fourth quarter financial results, which were in line with our expectations. Underlying sales growth was 5%, growing off a tough comp in 2022 when sales shifted from the third quarter into the fourth quarter due to China shutdowns and electronic component shortages. Price contributed approximately 4 points of growth. As expected with our typical seasonality, backlog declined sequentially about $300 million to $6.6 billion, up 12% versus where we entered 2023. Software and control sales grew 2% on an underlying basis, which now includes AspenTech as we lapped a year of ownership. The control systems and software business came in largely as expected and it was comparing against a very strong prior year Q4. AspenTech tends to see lower sales volume in our fiscal Q4 due to the timing of renewals and its sales can be more variable due to ASC 606 accounting. The sales were on forecast and importantly ACV showed strong growth at 10.9% year-over-year. Intelligent devices grew 6%, led by process and hybrid exposed businesses, mainly measurement and analytical and final control. Our discrete automation business was down in the quarter with softer-than-expected demand and Europe and China weakness impacting this business. Emerson adjusted segment EBITDA margin improved 80 basis points to 25.5%. Operating leverage excluding AspenTech was 45%. Volume, margin accretive price cost, which included net material deflation and ongoing productivity programs contributed to the margin improvement. Adjusted EPS grew 21% to $1.29. Lastly, free cash flow for the quarter of $838 million was up 17% versus the prior year. Please turn to Slide 12. As Lal summarized, 2023 was an exceptional year for Emerson. Underlying sales growth was 10% with 4 points of price contribution. Software and control and intelligent devices…

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Just a couple specific NATI questions if I could. Some noise with the bolt-ons. So could you just be clear for NATI revenues in 2024? And also, if you could provide any color on how their orders progressed in the fourth quarter? And finally, maybe a little bit of around how much of that synergy target happens in the first year.

Yeah. Hi, Jeff. Lal here. Good morning. So on the revenue, as Mike stated, $1.6 billion is the assumption. It's not in the underlying sales as we reported. Orders in the environment, as I expressed in my presentation, are still challenging in the business, exiting the quarter at down 16% NI which is very much aligned to the plan that we had in place. And we do expect much like in our core discrete markets, orders to flatten out as we get into the second half of the year. So feel very much that they're under in plan from an orders perspective, although still in a challenging environment. And then lastly on synergies. Look, we got off to a really good start, day one. The team's executing very, very well. We haven't given guidance on year one. What I did, I will say is that about half the synergies will be delivered in the first two years.

Right. And just as an unrelated question, maybe it's for Mike. But just thinking about the organic guide for 2024, you're exiting here at 4% price with 5% order growth, right? It feels like there's a little bit of room in those organic numbers. Maybe just share how much price is embedded in that 4% to 6% for 2024?

Yeah. Jeff, the 2024 price assumption is 2%.

Great. Thank you.

Our next question comes from Steve Tusa with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning.

Good morning, Steve.

Can you just talk about within the cash guidance, what you're assuming on working capital. And then that $250 million that's kind of running through this year, how does all that trend kind of into '25?

Yeah, I'll start with the second half -- or the second part of the question first. The $250 million is really one-time and in the year related to the acquisitions and some of the higher CapEx that we've got.

Great. And then just working capital?

Working capital for the year. Yeah, we exited working capital, trade working capital at about 20.5%, and we're expecting about 50 basis points coming off -- 20.5% of revenue. So we do expect to have a little bit of balance sheet goodness in 2024.

Great. And then just one last one, just on orders. How do you guys kind of see the funnel stepped up a bit, the backlog, [you had in the] (ph) backlog seasonally, but how do you guys going to see orders and backlog trending over the course of the year here?

Yeah, I'll comment, Steve. Obviously, we exit at 5%. So we have optimism, and we have momentum out there. Obviously, we have some challenges in discrete, as we talked about in the business. I think as you think about the start of the year, my expectations are flat to low single digits. But as we get into the second half of the year, my expectation is exiting at -- in the mid-single-digit range. And for the full year, somewhere in the low single to mid-single-digit orders.

Great. And, thanks a lot.

And then Steve, just on backlog. There -- that pattern holds, there shouldn't be a meaningful change in backlog as we exit 2024. So the backlog should remain healthy.

Great. Thank you.

The next question comes from Julian Mitchell with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning. Maybe first off, just looking at Slide 15, so I wanted to understand why the operating leverage steps up after Q1 when the organic sales growth steps down? Is there any one segment or subsegment or something happening with mix that's driving that? And should we assume that that organic sales growth just steadily decelerates through the year?

Hey, Julian, yeah there is a little bit of mix and I would say the discrete automation softness that we are expecting in the first half of the year plays in on that. There's -- we've been ramping up our spend around growth platforms and innovation. And so as you come into the first quarter, there's a little bit of a year-over-year comparable that plays into that first quarter leverage as well.

I see. So it's really discrete, sort of getting better, and that pushes up the op leverage balance of the year.

That's correct. Again, obviously we're driving restructuring in the discrete business given the trend in the orders and you will see that margin expansion come through in the second half which would drive up the leverage rates.

That's helpful, thank you. And then just a quick follow-up would be around, I suppose, historically process cycles in automation followed discrete by around 12 months, and we see discrete is soft now. Are there any sort of specific reasons why process should hold up differently this time versus history instead of following discrete lower later this year?

It's a good question, Julian. One that we've thought a lot about and been watching very carefully. The fact of the matter is that we have some very unusual secular trends going on in the world right now. I think a lot of our process activity is driven by two -- three critical areas. The near-shoring activity, which impacts life sciences and the metals and mining value chain. The energy affordability and security, which is impacting significant continued investment in liquefied natural gas and nuclear. And thirdly, equally important, sustainability. I think we're past the tipping point in terms of the -- our customers' commitment around sustainability, and we're seeing continued investments there. So whether we believe those will transcend certain economic cycles and that will impact how we should think about the strength of process as we go through 2024. Ram, you have something to add?

Yeah, and the other point I'd make, Julian, is the capital spend in the process hybrid industries has been pretty disciplined. There hasn't been a boom in capital to cause a correction as we move forward as opposed to the prior cycles we saw. So I think that disciplined capital spend plus obviously the trends that Lal identified where the sustainability investments provide that tailwind, we expect process to continue to run for a lot longer.

I see, so you…

Process and hybrid -- and hybrid, yeah.

Got it. So the process and hybrid orders growth should stay fairly steady through 2024.

That is our expectation, yes sir.

Fantastic. Thanks for the help.

Thanks, Julian.

The next question comes from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead. Nigel, your line is now live.

Okay. The line is live, but I'm not, so sorry for that. So National Instruments, I think that the 4Q fiscal sales were down, I think, high single-digit, organic. Is that the right number? Is my math correct? And it looks like the guide implies flattish to maybe slightly down organic. Just wondering what the profile is on that and anything on orders there would be helpful.

Yeah. So, Ram here, Nigel. From an orders perspective, as Lal indicated, the last quarter, which is our fourth quarter, down 16% in orders, we expect orders to remain down for the first half and turn positive in the second half. And you are right, the $1.6 billion that we're guiding will translate to down 5% to 6% for the year from a sales perspective. And sales should turn positive in the fourth quarter. So we'll have down sales for the first three quarters and positive in the fourth quarter.

Okay, great. I'm sorry I missed the order number. Thanks for clarifying that. And then on the backlog, backlog down from $6.9 billion to $6.6 billion QoverQ, maybe just clarify, I don't think that's unusual from a seasonal perspective. I think it's normal to see 4Q backlog consumption. Was there any FX revaluation impacts there? I just want to make sure that I understand the organic movement there.

No, that's on a consistent GAAP basis.

Okay, great. Thank you.

The next question comes from Scott Davis with Melius Research. Please go ahead.

Hey, good morning, everybody. Congrats on all the stuff done.

Good morning, Scott. Lal, it sounds like you were just in China, if you were around the world, and it seems pretty topical to get an update from what maybe you saw there. I'll just leave it there.

Yeah, I actually, on this particular trip, did not hit China. We'll do that later in the year. I was there in May. But having said that, look, we had a very good year in China. We exited orders at 11% in China. So feel good about the momentum there again. The investments there really around energy security and nearshoring are very significant. Sales were in the mid-single-digits for the year, and -- but we continue to see robustness in our core process and hybrid spaces. And not unlike what Europe and the United States struggling on the discrete side, but certainly the process hybrid strength will continue as we expect into 2024.

And then the discrete in China is negative I'd assume this quarter?

Yes, it is negative in the quarter. Yes, sir.

Okay. I'll pass it on. Thank you, guys.

Thanks, Scott.

The next question comes from Joe O’Dea with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead. Joe O’Dea: Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. One, just on the NI earnings contribution for the year, $0.05 in the first quarter would be kind of running, I guess, $0.10 a quarter or a little better for the rest of the year. But any more detail on that cadence? Anything that's sort of cost heavy up front and then the progression through the course of the year as you're thinking about that earnings contribution?

No, I don't have anything else to add, Joe. I mean, obviously, there's a -- as Ram expressed, a volume expansion as we get to the second half of the year that will drive leverage and incremental profits, but that's really what the tale of the tape there is. Joe O’Dea: Okay, and then on the R&D side and the step up to 7%, it sounds like it goes even higher in ‘24. Any context on that? And then sort of an additional insight on sort of the products and verticals that are getting outsized investments, as well as what your returns focus is on R&D, the prioritization around share gain or sort of the revenue dollars that you want, returns on R&D investment, any sort of context around that?

From a dollars perspective, yeah, we get the benefit of Aspen coming in, that mixes us up, and then NI comes in, and that also mixes us up. So you'll continue to see that commitment to growth, innovation, accelerate and increase as we move on. And in terms of where the investment is going, a lot of the investment really is across the four technology areas we've consistently showed you guys. It's disruptive measurement which is the sensing technology in our measurement technologies business, our automation system, the next generation automation system that Lal referenced in the presentation, and also collaborative technology development with Aspen around asset performance management. So those are the areas where we see lots of opportunity in terms of new-to-the-world type innovation that we can drive as an automation company and that's where the investment is going. Joe O’Dea: Thank you.

Next question comes from Christopher Glynn with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Good morning. I was curious about the funnel conversion comments. I think last quarter you indicated that the conversion rates of those are picking up as the size of the projects ramps and some of the newer technologies and applications. So, just curious, trend line if you see in further acceleration and how much of that notion is baked into the fiscal ‘24 guidance or could that be an opportunity?

No. Hey, Chris, Lal here. No, look, we continue to see the funnel expand organically to begin with. So it did grow from quarter over quarter, which is why we thought it was important to show you. But what's most interesting, it's growing in the right spots for us. It's growing along the growth platforms that were -- where we have the focus of the organization. So that comprises about $6.6 billion of the funnel today, of which energy security and transition is a big part of that. Sustainability and decarbonization is a large part of it. If you look at the wins, they are very much aligned in the same way as the funnel, winning at about 60% aligned on the growth platforms-ish with energy transition a big part of what we are converting here. So feel really good about it. I -- we're watching it carefully, of course, in terms of movement through FID and other elements, but at this point in time, continue to have optimism, particularly products that are purely connected to national security, nearshoring, or energy affordability elements. So, feel pretty good about what we see in front of us.

Thanks. And if I could ask another on discrete, what kind of impacts are you seeing in terms of channel versus end demand?

From a channel perspective, I mean, if you're referencing destocking, we're not seeing that. The discrete slowness is purely market driven, certainly European machine builders, China is an end market, and an overall slowdown in the factory automation segment in North America. And you see that with obviously a lot of our peers that have a lot more exposure and discreet. Frankly, versus our peers, we're holding our own in terms of the order rate decline in discreet, and we do expect to see a second half ‘24 positive orders for the business.

Great. Thank you.

The next question comes from Andy Kaplowitz with Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Well, I think last quarter when you began to talk about FY ‘24, you mentioned more normalized incrementals in the mid 30% range, but you're guiding to mid to high 40% ex-test and measurement. So could you give us a little more color into the assumptions? I know you get price for ‘24 and you're starting off a little lower, but it seems like you're still getting supply chain tailwind benefits. Andrew, how would you assess your performance versus your longer term algorithm of 35%? Is it possible that that algorithm could be a bit conservative?

It's possible. Yes, Andy. We've been operating in the mid-50s over the last couple of years. There's a significant amount of momentum around cost in the business. As I mentioned, we have tailwinds that will be delivered through the actions we're taking, not just within the segments, but also at corporate as we go through 2024. Now having said that, on the supply chain side, we're on the positive side of most of the measures. Obviously, logistics environment is flipped. And on material flow, generally significantly better. Of course, we fight spot shortages as you'd expect in any business. But generally, we are in a very different world on the supply chain. So that's all very positive. So it's really around execution. Look, we have a -- the gross margins of the business are 49% in 2023. They'll expand further, as Mike described, in 2024. And with that comes an expectation of a higher leverage and a higher incremental for the business. So at this point, feel very comfortable with the guide we put out there for the year in that mid to high 40s which is, I think, differentiated. And we'll really think through what we talk about and guide on a longer-term basis from a financial plan perspective as we go through the year.

Just to amplify that a little bit, Andy, we've also been talking about this $100 million of corporate platform cost takeout, which has been reading through in the businesses, and we'll read through in the business in '24 as well, which is an uplift for the year.

It's great to hear. And then I know you want to retire the KOB 1, 2, 3 names, but when we think about ‘24, I think you've been averaging something like 65% KOB3. Would you expect that to hold up at around that level? And what are you seeing on the KOB3 side? Is there just a lot more activity that could also help with margins given that tends to be higher margin work?

Yeah, no, we certainly expect MRO in the 60% range for 2024, Andy. You're absolutely right. It's the most pricing elastic portion of our business. It's typically replaced like for like within processes. And so we feel we have a great understanding of where the $150 billion of install base is located and we have specific programs across our service organizations and selling organizations to ensure that we mine that and that we keep that product evergreen. So I feel good about that, but in that 60% range, I think would be the right expectation.

Appreciate it guys.

Thanks, Andy.

The next question comes from Tommy Moll with Stephens. Please go ahead.

Good morning and thank you for taking my questions.

Hi, Tommy.

Well I wanted to start with a follow-up on discrete. You've called out the weakness there previously. Obviously it's been front and center today. So I'm just curious, were there incremental pockets of weakness you picked up through the last quarter and then as you look through to the second half of the coming fiscal year where you expect a return to growth, is the visibility there more just a comps issue or are there some green shoots in terms of the real underlying demand that you can call out at this point?

No. So a couple of things. What we're experiencing through the quarter or we have experienced through the quarter is demand-driven weakness. As Ram accurately portrayed, it's not as the stocking element. As a matter of fact, a very small percentage of our business runs through stocking distributors in the discrete side. But nevertheless, it's demand that we really focus on, and it's global weakness across the key markets. Now having said that, the comparables do get easier as we get into the second half. We're not counting on underlying demand conditions in the discrete market significantly improving in the second half. What we're benefiting from is obviously the [competitors] (ph) for us.

Makes sense. And then if I look at the consolidated outlook you've provided for the first quarter and then the full year, you're starting the year in the high single-digit range, full year in the mid-single-digit range. So there's some deceleration implied there. Is there some conservatism around there, just given the issues you've called out on the discrete side? Are there comp items that you would point out for us?

There's nothing extraordinary other than we've got to be cautious on the discrete cycle.

Great. We appreciate the insight, and I'll turn it back.

Thanks, Tommy.

This concludes our question-and-answer session. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.