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Enova International, Inc. (ENVA)

Q2 2017 Earnings Call· Thu, Jul 27, 2017

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, everyone and welcome to the Enova International Second Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] After today’s presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator Instructions] And please do note that this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Monica Gould, Investor Relations for Enova. Please go ahead.

Monica Gould

Analyst

Thank you, William, and good afternoon, everyone. Enova released results for the second quarter of 2017 ended June 30, 2017, this afternoon after market closed. If did not receive a copy of our earnings press release, you may obtain it from the Investor Relations section of our website at ir.enova.com. With me on today's call are; David Fisher, Chief Executive Officer and Steve Cunningham, Chief Financial Officer. This call is being webcast and will be archived on the Investor Relations section of our website. Before I turn the call over to David, I'd like to note that today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements based on the business environment as we currently see it, and as such, does include certain risks and uncertainties. Please refer to our press release and our SEC filings for more information on the specific risk factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from the projections described in today's discussion. Any forward-looking statements that we make on this call are based on assumptions as of today, and we undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or future events. In addition to U.S. GAAP reporting, we report certain financial measures that do not conform to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. We believe these non-GAAP measures enhance the understanding of our performance. Reconciliations between these GAAP and non-GAAP measures are included in the tables found in today's press release. As noted in our earnings release, we have posted supplemental financial information on the IR portion of our website. And with that, I'd like to turn the call over to David.

David Fisher

Analyst

Thanks, Monica, and thanks everyone, for joining our call today. I'm going to start off by giving a brief overview of the quarter, then I'll update you on our strategy and finally, I will share our perspectives, looking forward. Then I'll turn the call over to Steve Cunningham, our CFO, to discuss our financial results and guidance in more detail. We had a good second quarter and remained pleased with the performance and profitability of our business. Second quarter revenue increased 10% over last year as demand remained healthy across our products. Revenue was in line with the low end of our guidance at $189.9 million, generally revenue came in as expected in Q2, however, the delay in income tax returns – income tax refunds this year puts many of those refunds into Q2, which resulted in lower demand in our U.S. subprime business early in the quarter. Positively though, we saw growth accelerate both in that business as well as others as we move through the second quarter and we exited the quarter with good momentum. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $41.6 million, up 18% from a year ago and net income rose 45% over the same period to $11.9 million or $0.35 per share. EPS and adjusted EBITDA were towards the higher end of our guidance as we are creating meaningful operating leverage with both EBITDA and net income benefiting from solid credit performance, efficient marketing and the leverage inheritance in our online model. During Q1, there were lots of questions about macro credit trends following some weaker credit metrics in subprime auto and prime credit cards. As we discussed at that time, we believe that rapid expansion by companies in those industries was underlying their credit issues and we do not see any credit issues in…

Steve Cunningham

Analyst

Thank you, David, and good afternoon, everyone. I'll start by reviewing our financial and operating performance for the second quarter and then provide our outlook for the third quarter and the full year of 2017. We are pleased to report another quarter of solid financial performance. Our diluted earnings per share for the quarter increased 40% from the prior year as revenue increased 10% year-over-year. Credit continues to perform in line with our expectations and operating leverage in our online business model was strong. These factors contributed to an 18% increase in adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter of 2017 versus the prior year quarter. Total revenue was $189.9 million in the second quarter, a 10.1% increase from the year-ago quarter. On a constant currency basis, total revenue increased 11.8%. Year-over-year revenue growth was driven by growth in total company combined loans and finance receivable balances, which increased 13.6% year-over-year to a total of $675.8 million from $595 million in the second quarter of last year. Line of credit products and installment loan products continue to drive the year-over-year increases in total loans and finance receivables balances. Total company originations rose sequentially by 14.5% and decreased less than 1% year-over-year. The year-over-year change was partially driven by slower growth early in the second quarter due to delayed tax refunds. However, as David mentioned, we saw an acceleration in year-over-year originations due to last two months of the quarter, especially for short-term and consumer installment loans. Domestically, revenue increased 12.6% on a year-over-year basis and declined 4% sequentially to $158.1 million in the second quarter. Domestic revenue accounted for 83.2% of our total revenue in the second quarter of 2017. Domestic year-over-year revenue growth was driven primarily by a 17.3% increase in domestic line of credit revenue and a 14.2% increase…

David Fisher

Analyst

Great. Thanks, Steve. We'll now open up the call for any questions you might have.

Operator

Operator

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] And our first questioner of today is going to be David Scharf with JMP. Please go ahead.

David Scharf

Analyst

Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. A couple of things to start, maybe first just the credit side. David, I know you reiterated that you generally felt it was pretty stable and not a lot of red flags on the horizon, I'm wondering as I look at the ending allowance rate, 12.7%, I mean is the right way to be thinking about this is that, it's basically the same as it was the same period last year, despite what should be a bigger mix of new customers and that's probably as much of an indication of your forward outlook as anything else? I'm just trying to get a feel – I mean there's always product mix shiftings going on, but as I look at the overall allowance rate is that signaling to me that, setting aside all the noise of shifting mix and so forth it's pretty much the same outlook as it was 12 months ago?

David Fisher

Analyst

Yes. I think if you compare it to the same quarter last year, it can be a little misleading because that quarter was the lowest quarter ever, as Steve mentioned. And so taking a longer-term perspective, I think, it's helpful. I say yes. But the short answer is yes, I think the other really important metric to look at is gross margin because gross margin gives you more of a near-time view and also takes into account kind of revenue. The revenue levels you're getting per dollar of loan origination changes based on mix and based on kind of changes in the products over time. And you can see this quarter that gross margin came in strong and near the upper end of the 50% to 60% guidance range that Steve has given and that's a pretty good indication that we have the right level of credit performance given the level of yields in our portfolio.

David Scharf

Analyst

Got it. And along those lines, in terms of how you're pricing for that risk, is there anything in any of your subprime product categories on the competitive front that have changed noticeably in terms of price competition? Or is the market pretty stable and rational this far?

David Fisher

Analyst

I would say not – yes, there's been no changes on the competitive front that has influenced our pricing or level of risk taking on the consumer side.

David Scharf

Analyst

Okay. Got it. I'll ask one more, an obvious one then I'll get back in queue. If you had to sum up in a nutshell, what may have changed in the second half guidance versus three months ago? What would that be?

David Fisher

Analyst

So the second half guidance, I think, revenue, we're looking pretty strong and EBITDA we are taking a more conservative view because if we bring on the stronger levels of new customers that we kind of exited Q2 with and that we see continuing in Q3 that relate to slightly higher marketing spend. We've been guiding to higher marketing spend, so last couple of quarters, it's taken us a little while to get there. It was higher in Q2, but probably not as high as we thought. But we continue to think there is opportunity to invest in more new customer volumes. So with higher levels of marketing spend and, obviously, the higher levels of loan loss provisioning that come along with a greater percentage of new customers that will put some pressure on EBITDA in the short-term. Obviously, we are very, very confident that those are profitable customers that will generate strong profitability over time, we wouldn't be originating those loans. So if you look at kind of second half guidance, that's probably the way of summing up. If you look at annual guidance, it's probably just that combined with just incorporating the lower level of revenue in Q2 just kind of pushing that through to the year, which, as we mentioned, was largely attributed to just the delay – first of all, it wasn't that low. It's that kind of low end of our guidance. It wasn't abnormally low and it's almost solely attributable to the delay in tax refund that we saw in April with momentum picking up through the quarter.

David Scharf

Analyst

Got it. I apologize, I'm going to cheat, one more follow-up. Just following up on the thought of adding more new customers. I mean when you think about this strategically, should we read into that anything that suggests that repeat borrowing isn't as strong as usual? Or is it more, let's go out and acquire customers while we're still in the nice macro background?

David Fisher

Analyst

It's much more that latter point. We – existing customer volume is strong. It's right where we anticipated to be for the year. There is – it's kind of dead on. And increase in new customer volume is, I think, just strengthening our business, good demand and good execution by our teams and growing these businesses that still have lots and lots of headroom. So – no, it's not a decrease in existing customer volume at all, it's the growth in new customer volume.

David Scharf

Analyst

Got it. Thanks very much.

David Fisher

Analyst

Yes.

Operator

Operator

And our next questioner today is going to be John Rowan with Janney. Please go ahead.

John Rowan

Analyst

Good afternoon, guys.

Steve Cunningham

Analyst

Hi, John.

John Rowan

Analyst

Just kind of going back to David's question a little bit here. Obviously, you are talking a lot about provision expense being higher or the charge-off rate being higher because of the new customers. David, I think you gave in your prepared remarks that in UK new customers were up 20% year-over-year, is that correct?

David Fisher

Analyst

Yes. That's right.

John Rowan

Analyst

So, is that the reason why the reason why the international provision expense went from like $7.7 million to $12.5million? And then if you have maybe the U.S. numbers, is there a comparable number for like total new customers, unique customers that we can use?

David Fisher

Analyst

We don't break out provision by new versus existing customers and obviously provision for both of them although at different rate. But let me say, it's really the charge-off levels that charge-off percentage that's higher. Provision is still really, really strong in the upper 50s. I think that's a sign that credit performance is good and especially – you got it – there's – its credit relative to yield, right. So it's not just credit in a vacuum. We have higher defaults than a prime lender and the question is whether you're getting paid for those higher levels of defaults, and that can change over time. And one indication of that, other than trying to do a bunch of math around mix, which is really, really hard is to look at those gross margin percentages. And those gross margin percentage being high is a pretty good indication and more of a leading indicator that we're getting adequate returns for the risk we're taking in our portfolio where net charge-offs are really more of a backwards looking indicator.

John Rowan

Analyst

And then the second part of my question, do you also have a comparable number for total customers for U.S. customers relative to that UK customer count that you gave?

Steve Cunningham

Analyst

You're talking about the increase in domestic customers?

David Fisher

Analyst

We have domestic originations, right?

Steve Cunningham

Analyst

Yes, we do.

David Fisher

Analyst

Yes, we can get you domestic originations.

John Rowan

Analyst

I was trying to understand what the rate of the new unique customers are, not necessarily originations that would be to an existing customer because that's kind of – that should correlate then with just rising charge-offs.

David Fisher

Analyst

Yes. We don't break that out. And on the UK – and then even on the UK the number I quoted was loan originations were up 22% year-over-year. That is both new and existing. That could include an increase in existing customer borrowings as well, that's not a pure new customer number.

John Rowan

Analyst

Okay. And then just last question. What would be the guidance for the tax rate, going forward?

David Fisher

Analyst

Yes. The tax rate, I would expect it to be around the mid-30s percent based on our first half performance.

John Rowan

Analyst

All right. Thanks very much.

David Fisher

Analyst

You bet.

Operator

Operator

And the next questioner is going to be John Hecht with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

John Hecht

Analyst

Hey, guys thanks very much. Just I think it's sort of a moderate question based on – you mentioned resurgence in growth after the effects of the tax delay wore off during the quarter. I mean, do you think – could you advise us that the pace you've seen over the last two months, are they ahead of where they were last year to the point where we could, I guess, safely model year-over-year growth at the product level of originations? Or we're still kind of working through some of the ongoing effects of the tax refunds?

David Fisher

Analyst

The problem is so much changes in our business year-over-year. I think the better methodology, quite frankly, is to look at sequential quarters adjusted for seasonality. So if you look at the seasonality over the last couple of years and then apply that to where we kind of exited Q2, really what you saw – what we saw in Q2 was just – if you look at the revenue kind of revenue being more towards the lower end of our guidance as opposed to the top end or the middle. You're talking about $5 million to $10 million of revenue almost solely from our U.S. subprime business, largely in April with May and June being kind of right on where we expected it to be. So if you just kind of adjust the U.S. subprime business up by have $5 million or so in revenue, you would get more kind of apples-to-apples comparison versus Q2 of last year where the tax refunds weren't delayed.

John Hecht

Analyst

Okay. So you're advocating use this kind of base from here and then grow at what we saw Q2 to Q3 last year will give us a more fair kind of way of modeling it.

David Fisher

Analyst

It's just the business mix that's changed a lot year-over-year.

John Hecht

Analyst

Okay. That makes sense. I think you mentioned – nitpicky question here, I guess, the Maryland law, any change was there any impact you guys on that, that's meaningful? Or you're just diversified enough that it's not worth mentioning?

David Fisher

Analyst

There's nothing in Q2. We don't expect anything meaningful in the rest of the year that changes in the guidance that Steve gave and certainly with our diversified product base and kind of the way that law operates, we don't see any meaningful impact to our numbers.

John Hecht

Analyst

Okay. And we don't see a lot of this until we get the Q. But I'm wondering is there any – can you tell us maybe how like if you have these numbers available, have delinquency numbers, maybe aggregate levels or something might have trended relative to the year-ago quarter just to give us – that's the pipeline of potential charge-offs that will help us think about the charge-off content coming in Q3.

Steve Cunningham

Analyst

Yes. We'll have that when the Q comes out, John.

John Hecht

Analyst

Okay. Appreciate it. All right, thanks a lot guys.

Steve Cunningham

Analyst

All right, thank you.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And the next questioner is going to be Vincent Caintic with Stephens. Please go ahead.

Vincent Caintic

Analyst

Hey, good afternoon guys. Just a question also on originations, how much of your originations in the second quarter are to new customers versus existing customers? Because I guess, historically, it's usually 15%, but I'm kind of wondering what the basis of growth in that?

Steve Cunningham

Analyst

Yes. So in the second quarter, new customers across all of our businesses based on dollar originations was just a little over 25%, which is where we were really in the third –second, third quarters of last year as well. So we've seen it kind of hang between 20% and 25% here over the past year or so, which is up quite a bit from 2015.

Vincent Caintic

Analyst

Okay, got it. And so when kind of we think about the EPS and EBITDA range that you have and you kind of tying it to the levels of growth maybe marketing expense and provision expense. Can we sort of think about it as – if you're having – if that mix increases then you're kind of going to be in the lower end of the range here and the converse is true so you're kind of working towards more new originations?

Steve Cunningham

Analyst

That's right. So we've talked about this for a few quarters where strong growth we have a higher average portfolio is going to drive revenue but that mix could drive you to the lower half of the EBITDA range, which is linked to that lower half of our EPS and adjusted EPS guidance ranges as well.

Vincent Caintic

Analyst

Okay, got it. And then separately, David, you touched on this in the prepared remarks but on the kind of the macro environment and some of the other lenders having previously worst losses but maybe it stabilizing part of that stabilization at least when I'm hearing with some of the credit cards, even some of the subprime once they're pulling back and that seems to be tightening their credit and pulling back on loan growth and that's helping them out. But I'm wondering if that's an opportunity for you, overall credit is supplied and the market is coming down maybe that's a benefit for you guys. I'm just kind of wondering what your thoughts are maybe that's driving some of this new customer growth.

David Fisher

Analyst

Yes, again, I think, maybe a teeny bit around the fringes but again the pullbacks have largely been, as you mentioned, in the prime credit cards guys, that's not really our customer. Subprime model, there's been a little pull back and that could be a little bit that can't – customers can't lever up their card they might be coming to NetCredit for example for an installment loan instead. And so there could be some growth from there, we haven’t seen those – that story though of kind of bad credit and pulling back and improving credit has been largely limited to those two portions of the finance industry. I think to look deeper in the subprime, you look at some of the installment lenders, good credit has been more of a stable story for the last several quarters as we've been talking about all along. I think some of the noise in Q1 was really just that and I think over time, has shown – has really been focused on those two specific segments of the industry.

Vincent Caintic

Analyst

Okay, very helpful. Thank you.

David Fisher

Analyst

Yes.

Steve Cunningham

Analyst

Yes.

Operator

Operator

We look to have no further questions, so this will conclude the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to David Fisher, CEO, for any closing remarks.

David Fisher

Analyst

Great, thank you. Thanks, everybody, for joining us today. We look forward to updating you on our progress next quarter. Have a good rest of your day. Bye-bye.

Operator

Operator

And the conference is now concluded. Thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.