Earnings Labs

Edgewell Personal Care Company (EPC)

Q4 2021 Earnings Call· Thu, Nov 11, 2021

$22.84

-1.08%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to Edgewell's Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2021 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Chris Gough, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Chris Gough

Analyst

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us this morning for Edgewell's Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2021 Earnings. With me this morning are Rod Little, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Dan Sullivan, our Chief Financial Officer. Rod will kick off the call, and he will then hand it over to Dan to discuss our results and fiscal year '22 outlook, and we will then transition to Q&A. This call is being recorded and will be available for replay via our website, www.edgewell.com. During the call, we may make statements about our expectations for future plans and performance. This might include future sales, earnings, advertising and promotional spending, product launches, savings and costs related to restructurings, changes to our working capital metrics, currency fluctuations, commodity costs, category value, future plans for return of capital to shareholders and more. Any such statements are forward-looking statements, which reflect our current views with respect to future events. These statements are based on assumptions and are subject to various risks and uncertainties, including those described under the caption Risk Factor in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended September 30, 2020, as may be amended in our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. These risks may cause our actual results to be materially different from those expressed or implied by our forward-looking statements. We do not assume any obligation to update or revise any of these forward-looking statements to reflect new events or circumstances, except as required by law. During this call, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP measures are not prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles. A reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures is shown in our press release issued earlier today, which is available at the Investor Relations section of our website. Management believes these non-GAAP measures provide investors with valuable information on the underlying trends of our business. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Rod.

Rod Little

Analyst

Thanks, Chris. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on our year-end earnings call. As you saw in the results we posted earlier today, we closed fiscal 2021 on a strong note with clear momentum. A year ago, amid the ongoing pandemic with much uncertainty around the globe, we pressed forward with an aggressive set of objectives and launched our new growth strategy while providing a financial outlook that calls for sustained top line growth, margin expansion, commercial reinvestment and earnings per share growth. Today, I'm pleased to report that we are tracking well against all of those objectives, exceeding our financial commitments for the year while executing on the strategic initiatives that are vital to driving sustainable long-term growth for our company. This performance is a testament to our team members who have executed with excellence in a challenging environment, and it also reflects meaningful investments in our brands, the strengthened innovation pipeline and increased digital engagement and capabilities. This was evident in our fourth quarter results and contributed to organic net sales growth of more than 8%. Our top line strength was broad-based with growth in both our North America and international markets as well as across all segments. With strong sales momentum and disciplined operational execution, adjusted operating profit increased 41%, and adjusted earnings per share increased 71%, providing for a strong finish to a very good year. Now let me turn to the full fiscal year. In a year in which first half sales were heavily impacted by ongoing COVID-19 restrictions in many regions around the world, and the second half was impacted by severe macro supply chain challenges, we grew organic net sales by nearly 4%. We benefited from improving consumption across all categories. And our results were underpinned by strong execution and…

Daniel Sullivan

Analyst

Thank you, Rod. Good morning, everyone. As Rod discussed, we're pleased with the strong sales and profit growth for both the quarter and full year as we continue to make good progress against our strategic initiatives outlined at our Investor Day a year ago. By executing on our objectives this year, despite increasing supply chain challenges and cost headwinds, we see the impact that predictable top line growth, committed and disciplined commercial investment and strong cost control can have on our results and on our overall business model. For the year, organic net sales increased 3.7%. Adjusted gross margin increased 30 basis points. A&P spend increased $25 million and 50 basis points in rate of sale. Adjusted SG&A improved 30 basis points in rate of sale. Adjusted EBITDA increased over 7%. Adjusted EPS increased 11% and net cash from operating activities was $229 million, and through our newly initiated dividend, we returned $26 million to our shareholders. Before reviewing our detailed results, I would like to provide some additional color on our operations and the continuing inflationary environment. As our industry grapples with supply chain disruptions and unprecedented cost increases, there has been increased pressure on gross margin as we saw in the fourth quarter. Tight labor markets remain challenging and supply and demand imbalances and overall capacity constraints remain broad and sustained across the supply chain. Importantly, we are taking meaningful steps to offset these persistent headwinds and will rely on the inherent capabilities that this organization developed and evidenced during the successful execution of our Fuel program over the last few years. To that end, all of our global manufacturing plants and distribution centers remain open and fully operational. In the face of meaningful labor constraints, we've increased and diversified our efforts to secure the labor pool needed…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. The first question comes from Wendy Nicholson with Citi.

Wendy Nicholson

Analyst

Congratulations on the great numbers. I actually have two questions, if it's okay. Just first on the share repurchase program. I know you said you're going to have a balanced approach to capital allocation, but my question is sort of with regard to M&A outlook. You've done a great job with the acquisitions that you've made. Is that still as big a priority? Can you comment on what you're seeing in terms of additional targets? Just want to make sure that we shouldn't read the share repurchase authorization as a statement that may be additional acquisitions is less of a priority.

Daniel Sullivan

Analyst

Yes. Wendy, it's Dan. Thanks for the question. Yes. No, absolutely, our M&A strategy is 100% unchanged. We remain really focused on a primary goal of investing in the growth of this business, and M&A is a super important lever there. Also a really important piece of how we think about diversifying our portfolio over time and gaining a meaningful foothold in growing categories. So that is unchanged for us. And as we've been saying, I think our capital allocation approach, if you will, is multidimensional. And so as we think about the M&A component of that, highly focused on it, still thinking about tuck-in-type acquisitions that are less complex and easily able for us to integrate. In terms of the market there, yes, there's quite a bit of activity in the market. There's certainly a high degree of supply right now, and we're super busy looking across all categories for interesting assets. Rod, anything you would add?

Rod Little

Analyst

Yes. Wendy, I would just add, we've been looking at this capital allocation policy for a while now. And throughout the pandemic, we felt it was important first to get the dividend in place, which we did a year ago. We've always had our eye on share repurchase. And I think just waiting for us to have the level of confidence in our business plans going forward to commit to a meaningful program, which we've now put in place. So we're laddering that in. And to Dan's point, it does not take M&A off the table. Arguably, it raises the bar for M&A, which I think is a good thing actually.

Wendy Nicholson

Analyst

Got it. Great. That sounds great. And then I actually had a totally unrelated question. I hope that's okay. But just you talked about some strong growth in the Private Label business, which is great. But I'm just wondering in this sort of operating environment, the huge headwinds we're seeing from a cost perspective, is there anything we need to think about in terms of the margins on Private Label that you're generating? Or are the Private Label selling prices going up sort of in concert with the branded prices? Are the price gaps staying the same? Or anything we should think about that because you're one of the few guys out there who actually does a meaningful amount of Private Label manufacturing.

Rod Little

Analyst

Sure. Yes. No. Look, I think you have to really think about Private Label, not just through the entry price point filter, but also branded retailer programs, high-growth online businesses. There's quite a rich balance there within private brands, and we obviously are the supplier of choice. High-growth business for us. And I think as interesting, high contribution margin business for us on par with what you would see on our branded business. So again, we're super excited, given our capabilities here to be growing a big piece of the business. By the way, private brands is bigger than Fem Care if you just kind of think about it in size and spits off some really interesting economics.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Jason English with Goldman Sachs.

Jason English

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

I'll echo Wendy's sentiment. Congrats on good results, a good year. A couple of questions. First, just for clarity, Dan, I think you kind of hinted at this in your closing remarks, but your guidance is not predicated on share repo. Should we interpret that to mean like, "hey, the repo options out there are unlikely to be deployed anytime soon?

Daniel Sullivan

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

No, absolutely not, Jason. I think the way we thought about it was just complexity of modeling, right, because the repurchase algorithm is always going to be subject to market conditions and our ability to go out and buy. We do intend to put a 10b-5 in the market somewhere in the quarter. So we are committed to the program. We just didn't want it to become a distraction, if you will, from the modeling of the core business.

Jason English

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Got it. That makes a lot of sense. And I'm sorry, I was distracted a bit. I missed the comments that you made on inflation headwinds for next year. So -- so 2-part question here. One, can you just recap what inflation was, how much pressure it was this past year? How much do you expect next year? And then with Project Fuel now behind us, how should we think about productivity programs going forward?

Daniel Sullivan

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Yes. So the inflationary outlook that we have for the year, I think we said it in our prepared remarks was in the neighborhood of 350 to 400 basis points. Think about it as around 7% of COGS is sort of how we're seeing the picture. And not surprisingly, it's made up of the same ingredients that we've been talking about. First and foremost is commodity pressure where we're anticipating double-digit year-over-year inflation and then to a lesser degree, labor and warehouse and distribution probably in the mid-single-digit range. So if you put all of that in together, it would get you back to your 7% total inflation. As far as fuel becoming productivity, the way that we're thinking about it this year is we have a really good line of sight to somewhere in the neighborhood of 175 to 200 basis points of cost reduction in COGS. So we may not be calling it fuel, and we may not be talking about a formal 3-year program. But as we've said consistently, this is in the DNA of Edgewell now to continue to execute on. And you'll see it in the year ranging from further automation, which obviously helps on the labor line, expansion of our global procurement business. So bigger and bolder, getting into more design-to-value savings, which lead to really interesting structural reductions. And then lastly, just a complete sort of intolerance for waste within our manufacturing facilities. So process excellence and relentless on overhead. So that's our view of it. In addition, we have identified another 60 to 75 basis points of cost reduction in SG&A, structural cost takeout mostly across global functional businesses.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Nik Modi with RBC Capital Markets.

Sunil Modi

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets.

Dan, maybe you can just provide some perspective on what you're embedding in guidance in terms of consumer behavior, but also on the input cost inflation. Some companies are using spot rates. Others are actually using forecast. So I just wanted to get your thoughts around how you guys are thinking about that.

Daniel Sullivan

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets.

Yes. Sure, Nik. So our procurement team is looking mostly at 12- and 18-month forecasts across all commodity areas that we buy. Now the degree to which we buy on spot versus have more multiyear contracts. Some of those contracts have fundamental indices in them that bring them back to some degree to market. So there's a lot of puts and takes, but we're -- as we've always been, we're focused on a 12- to 18-month time line. It is a highly fluid environment, as I'm sure you all are hearing in your other calls. And for every day that's something like resin gets stronger, which is where it is now, we're seeing a little bit of a slowdown in inflation, we're seeing availability increase. You turn and you get a little more pressure in things like Sun Chemicals, which are sourced out of China. So it is highly fluid, changes quite frequently, but we're taking a more long-term view on it. Rod, do you want to comment on how we thought about the categories in consumer?

Rod Little

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets.

Yes. I think the demand picture, Nik, for us moving forward, we think is net positive versus '21. You have Sun Care business that I think has tailwinds in it for us internationally, in particular, as those markets were later to reopen or are still in the process of reopening. Tourism travel to a certain extent, will come back online in fiscal '22. That was effectively a 0 in '21. And so I think there's some net tailwinds in the Sun Care business as well. On Shave, that's a big business. We've grown our Wet Shave business 3 quarters in a row behind some level of recovery of the category improving. And we expect that to continue as we continue to reopen more people get back to the office here in the U.S., but also globally, we're seeing that happen as well. And so I think in those categories, we're pretty optimistic. And then if you look at Men's Grooming, we've continued to see growth there. I think we continue to be optimistic around the demand in Fem Care as well coming out of the trough of '21.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Bill Chappell with Truist Securities.

William Chappell

Analyst · Truist Securities.

Just a thought on pricing. I mean, certainly, positive here that you're now kind of more in the surgical pricing versus kind of broad-based. But kind of wondering where you are versus competition, especially within Wet Shave, are you -- have you seen the leaders or the competitors go ahead of you go further than you? Or is it everybody kind of moving at the same pace and same rate?

Rod Little

Analyst · Truist Securities.

Yes. So on Wet Shave, Bill, specific to your question, I don't think we're in a leadership position here. We're at a point where others have made some statements about what they intend to do. We would follow where it makes sense. In some cases, we won't. And we'll just look at it segment by segment, SKU by SKU as we kind of assess what we're going to do. We know what we're going to do, but some of it is still not clear in some of the segments, yes. I'll throw it to Dan for a little more specificity because it's very different market by market, the U.S. versus Japan, for example.

Daniel Sullivan

Analyst · Truist Securities.

Yes. Yes, great point. So I would say we're combining both a broad brush strategy where that makes sense and a surgical strategy where that is required. So the broad brush element, you've actually already heard about Wet Ones, double-digit price increase last spring. So we'll get about a half year run rate out of that. We've talked about Fem Care with a 6% to 7% increase. That has now been executed through the trade. So we'll pick that up in '22. And then I would say international Wet Shave while it is absolutely being executed on a category-by-category, brand-by-brand, market-by-market basis, it's broad brush, especially where we have market leading positions like Japan. I think where you see more surgical application for us is certainly around Sun Care, both U.S. and international and U.S. branded shave. So that's how I would think about pricing for us in '22.

William Chappell

Analyst · Truist Securities.

No, that's helpful. And then just on the U.S. kind of Wet Shave, as we look at the planogram resets for the spring, you'll be comping -- obviously, I think it was Dollar Shave and Harry's expansions at Mass. At the same point, this will be your first kind of full ownership for listings of Cremo as you go into the -- to the planogram resets. Any kind of color do you see for the U.S. market there?

Daniel Sullivan

Analyst · Truist Securities.

Yes. It's early, right? We're still not closed here, so to speak. But early signs are really encouraging for us. I'll start with the headline in club, where we are super excited. We've gotten full distribution across Sam's and Costco for Banana Boat. We've gotten new distribution in Sam's for Wet Ones. We've got online distribution with Sam's and Costco for intuition on the women's side of the business. So Club is proving to be a really exciting channel for us. As we look at Shave, still a lot of work to be done. We like where we are on both men's and women's, particularly in drug. We've gotten strong execution at Walgreens. We've gotten hotspot shelf designation at CVS on our Hydro Silk brand. You might recall that was Flamingo last year, enjoyed the year before. So again, there's work to be done here, but the team is doing a phenomenal job, and our early read is positive.

Rod Little

Analyst · Truist Securities.

And Bill, I would just build on this, beyond just individual outcomes, which are now net positive in total, as Dan is laying out versus the past, not only is that being driven by great brand-building work by the marketing teams, but we are working at a strategic level with our retailers in a better and different way than we were historically. And it starts with what's the pricing gap? Is the one with the consumer, get the pricing right? What's the margin structure with the retailer? Get the retailer margin right. Just get those fundamentals in place. And once those are in place, then the brands have a chance to do their thing and compete versus whatever else is out there. And so I think it's a strategic structured and layered approach as we work with the big U.S. retail partners to strengthen those relationships to set the ground for the brands to do their things. And that's taken a couple of cycles to get that right, and you're now seeing the fruits of that labor come through.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Kevin Grundy with Jefferies.

Kevin Grundy

Analyst · Jefferies.

Congratulations on the continued progress. A question probably for both of you actually, just the building blocks for the low single-digit organic sales growth guidance, which if you can do it, we'll look great, particularly on a 2-year stack basis, it will be a number that the company has not put up in quite some time. So the question is really around visibility and the building blocks to get there, the year-over-year comp is going to be more difficult, consumer behavior sort of normalizing, but still a little bit of flux. We see Colgate dealing with this in hand. So right now, as an example, pricing elasticities have been good. Is that going to hold, my humble opinion is probably not to the degree that it is at least at the moment? And I guess, Rod, when I heard you say earlier that the guidance is predicated on continued growth in Wet Shave and Fem Care. So the progress is good, a, but b, that is sort of unique, and we haven't seen the company there in a long time in either one of those businesses, at least on a sustainable basis. Relative to the company's long-term algorithm, which is 10% to 15% growth in the right to win and flat to down in the right to play. So it seems like the guidance is predicated on improvement that you haven't seen in a while in the -- some of the troubled businesses. So a big wind up for your visibility on this and your confidence to deliver on this algorithm, which is a little bit different than how you kind of put together the longer-term algorithm. So a little bit for both, but I appreciate your insights there.

Daniel Sullivan

Analyst · Jefferies.

Yes. Thanks, Kevin. You're right, it is a bit different. I think I'll start at a high level, and I'll turn it to Rod on the specifics by category. But I think it's always going to be a factor of what each category is cycling. The COVID recovery that we've contemplated, the role of price by category. So with that as the backdrop, I would say, look, our line of sight here is low single digits. We've modeled 3% just to be super clear on that. We think about half of that comes from price and half of that comes from volume. We think that the growth rate sort of half 1 and half 2 are reasonably consistent, and the growth rates international and North America are reasonably consistent. So -- then you get into the sort of category-by-category play. And you're right, we are looking for continued growth in Wet Shave. We saw that in -- certainly in Q4 and for the full year. So we will grow on top of growth. And then in Fem Care, yes, we are calling for growth coming off of mid-single-digit declines. And obviously, that 6% to 7% price increase that we put through is a big driver of that. So those are the headlines in terms of how we see it. Rod, any color you want to add by category?

Rod Little

Analyst · Jefferies.

Yes. Kevin, I think your question is a good one in that the knowledge of our strategy is recognized in the question. And so we're not changing our strategy. And so what you'll see, I think, as the year plays out, is in those right-to-win categories, we're going to have accelerated growth. That growth will still be ahead of what we see in right to play with Wet Shave and Fem. But what's very important is it's an all of the above strategy now. Every category, every segment of the business is contributing to the growth, albeit at different rates. And in the past, we've had portions of the business that have either been sick or needed some attention and were the bigger leaky buckets. We've now addressed that with brand health. Generally, I talked -- I touched on the retailer relationships earlier. And you start to then put on increasing capabilities around activating digitally better with consumers. And we grew in e-com, 87% 2 years ago, the year just finished, '21, we grew 25% on top of that 87%. We have growth projected in that category, again, that channel, again. And now suddenly, you're looking at that being -- going from what was 3% or 4% of sales a couple of years ago to 9% last year going up from there, right? So we've got better brand building, better retailer relationships, better channel mix and frankly, a better portfolio positioned for growth than we had a couple of years ago. So it's all of those things coming through in the building blocks.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Olivia Tong with Raymond James.

Olivia Tong

Analyst · Raymond James.

Congrats on the quarter and outlook. Can we talk a little bit about Sun Care. Obviously, that's been on fire. Can you just help us quantify how much of that you think is a benefit from the issues at some of your peers? And can you talk about what you're doing to maintain, sustain, what I assume is a fair number of new consumers when competition eventually comes back in those categories? And then I have a follow-up.

Rod Little

Analyst · Raymond James.

Yes. Olivia, I'll start and then throw it over to Dan. So we love the Sun Care category. We've said that before. We love the brands we have in the category and their positioning. As we went through '21, what you saw is demand for people to be outside, outside safe, right, in a COVID environment. And there was pent-up demand certainly over this past summer season, for people to do that more than ever and can be safe doing that. I think there's also, at the same time, consumer behavior and learning around long-term health and wellness, one of which is taking care of your sun. The #1 thing that ages skin is exposure to sun. Skin Care -- skin cancer incident rates are going up, not down. And so you put all that together and structurally, it's a growth category as we look at it. And so you have that going on in the season. We're up on a 2-year stack basis. Our relative performance vis-a-vis competition this past year, whether it be this year, the 2-year stack period, we've grown share with our brands and outcompeted the competition. Part of that is around just being available at shelf with products that are safe and meet FDA standards. And so you saw some others struggle with that. We benefit from that, obviously. Now going forward, I think we remain bullish that the underlying trends around people wanting to be outside more, protect their skin more, sets up well for continued growth. Dan referenced some of the distribution outcomes we have. We like the distribution profile in terms of number of points, quality of distribution in the year to come in '22 better than we liked in '21, and '21 was pretty good. And so it sets up well. And so while there's always going to be competition, I think we're in a position where we like our position, and we feel really good about the category.

Olivia Tong

Analyst · Raymond James.

Great. That's helpful. And then on share repurchase, you mentioned earlier not to read too much into the share repurchase authorization is a view on the deal environment. But -- how are you thinking about the timing on that share repurchase given that you were kind of out of the market for the last 2 years. Do you think that -- is it more of a sort of equal, equal, equal over the next 3 years? Or is it more catching up for lost time? And just how you're thinking about the timing of that?

Rod Little

Analyst · Raymond James.

Yes, it's a good question. Look, I think it's difficult to say over a 3-year period, how will it play out, right, simply because of the unknowns. But our intent here is to put a 10b-5 in the market in the quarter and begin to actively buy back shares. The other factors will ultimately impact at what pace over the time period. But we think $300 million over the 3 years is the right amount for us, certainly digestible with our excess cash, how that plays out between the years. Difficult to say at this point, other than we intend to be super consistent here in that ambition.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Chris Carey with Wells Fargo Securities.

Christopher Carey

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities.

I just wanted to follow up on Kevin's question just on the algorithm for next year. So Fem Care just sounds like pricing offsets potential volume declines. Sun, Skin feel good about share gains, innovation, distribution availability. So I guess it comes back to the Wet Shave business. And I guess what I'm trying to understand is just a bit more at the subcategory level or whatever you want to call it. Clearly, the women's business has driven growth. Mobility is probably a factor there, Private Label driving growth. I mean should we expect a similar shape of that business going into next year? Or are you concerned about some of the comps in the businesses that have been doing well? Are you factoring or relying on, I guess, the return of the office and the men's business? Is it international versus U.S.? You can see what I'm getting at just overall, how would you dimensionalize the shape of that business in order to drive growth next year consciously? It's been a while since you did a positive 2-year stack.

Rod Little

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities.

Sure. Yes, I think total Wet Shave, we think, will likely grow in line with total algorithm, right? So in that 2% to 3% range, with a pretty even distribution of volume and price. As I mentioned in the earlier question, while we have been somewhat broad brushed in our price thinking internationally on Shave, given our market strength, we've been more surgical here in the U.S. So there's a lot of puts and takes that factor into your question and how we thought about it. I'm not going to get into the subcategories of that. The thing that I would say, though, is obviously, good line of sight here in the U.S. We've got some interesting new products coming to market. We've got a complete rebranding of the Hydro brand back to a Schick leading name here, which we're super excited about. Like, we have some really exciting news for the trade in men's, continued growth in women's. And then lastly, remember, international markets still had much more of sort of puts and takes around COVID recovery and choppiness, particularly in our stronghold like Japan. So again, good line of sight to that for us and overall looking at a Shave category growth that's largely in line with total company algorithm.

Operator

Operator

Currently, there are no further questions. So this would conclude our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Rod Little for any closing remarks.

Rod Little

Analyst

Thank you, everybody, for your continued attention and those that own us your support. We appreciate it. Take care.

Operator

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.