Operator
Operator
Good morning and welcome to Edgewell's Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2024 Earnings Call [Operator Instructions]. Chris Gough, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Edgewell Personal Care Company (EPC)
Q3 2024 Earnings Call· Tue, Aug 6, 2024
$22.84
-1.08%
Same-Day
-1.18%
1 Week
-2.87%
1 Month
-5.13%
vs S&P
-8.62%
Operator
Operator
Good morning and welcome to Edgewell's Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2024 Earnings Call [Operator Instructions]. Chris Gough, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Chris Gough
Analyst
Good morning everyone, and thank you for joining us this morning for as Edgewell's Third Quarter Fiscal Year, 2024 Earnings Call. With me this morning are Rod Little, our President and Chief Executive Officer and Dan Sullivan, our Chief Financial Officer, Rod, will kick off the call, then hand it over to Dan to discuss our results and full year fiscal 2024 outlook, before we transition to Q&A, this call is being recorded and will be available for replay via our website, www.edgewell.com, During the call, we may make statements about our expectations for future plans and performance. This might include future sales, earnings, advertising and promotional spending, product launches, savings and costs related to restructuring and repositioning, repositioning actions, acquisitions, integrations, changes to our working capital metrics, currency fluctuations, commodity costs, category value, future plans for return of capital of shareholders and more. Any such statements are forward looking statements for the purposes of the Safe Harbor provisions under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 which reflect our current views with respect to future events, plans or prospects. These statements are based on assumptions and are subject to various risks and uncertainties, including those described under the caption Risk Factors in our annual report on form 10k for the year end of September 30, 2023, as may be amended in our quarterly reports on Form 10Q, which is on file with the SEC. These risks may cause our actual results to be materially different from those expressed or implied by our forward looking statements. We do not assume any obligation to update or revise any of these forward looking statements to reflect new events or circumstances, except as required by law. During this call, we refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP measures are not prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles. A reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures is shown in our press release issued earlier today, which is available at the investor relations section of our website. This non-GAAP information is provided as a supplement to not as a substitute for or a superior to measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. However, management believes these non-GAAP measures provide investors with valuable information on the underlying trends of our business. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Rod.
Rod Little
Analyst
Thank you, Chris, good morning everyone, and thanks for joining us on our fiscal 2024 third quarter earnings call. Results we posted today and so far this year continue to demonstrate that our strategy is working and that the transformation we began just over three years ago has had a profound impact on our business and results. We've exited a prolonged period of unmatched macroeconomic challenges and global business disruption as a stronger, healthier, better positioned business. It's also important to note that we are far from done and that the transformation of our business continues. Before I turn to our third quarter results, I'd like to discuss the key changes to our leadership team and organization structure that we announced earlier today. These changes will further strengthen our operating model, streamline decision-making and improve enterprise execution, all of which will better position us to deliver on our over-arching strategy to drive sustainable top and bottom line growth. We have 5 overarching areas of critical focus for our business that serve as the context for the announced changes. First, strengthening our U.S. business, specifically in our right-to-play categories to better compete for the long term; second, fortifying and accelerating our consumer-centric innovation platform; third, continuing to strengthen and leverage our international businesses; fourth, doubling down on a clear strength and accelerating efforts to drive meaningful year-on-year gross margin accretion as a catalyst to increase commercial investment as we continue on our path to become the world-class supply chain organization; and fifth, strengthening critical underlying commercial capabilities across the enterprise to drive continued organic top line growth. In order to increase the speed of progress across these areas of focus, today, we announced a series of leadership changes. The first is the creation of a Chief Operating Officer role to which…
Dan Sullivan
Analyst
Thank you, Rod. Good morning, everyone. First, let me say that I'm thrilled to take on the role and responsibilities of COO. I also want to add my congratulations to Fran, who I had the privilege of working with for over 2 decades. She's been an invaluable asset in her 4 years here at Edgewell, and I know she'll build on her strong track-record of success in the CFO role. As Rod outlined, the changes announced today will simplify operating and reporting structures, expedite decision-making and better leverage commercial and operational capabilities across our organization, all of which will better position us to capitalize on future growth, improve core operational performance and maintain our commitment to grow our business responsibly. I appreciate the trust placed to me by Rod and Board, and I'm excited to work more closely with our talented teammates across the globe. Now moving on to our results in the quarter. As Rod mentioned, execution of our broader strategies continues to yield good results. The inherent strength of our business model was again demonstrated this quarter as modest top line growth of about 1%, which was largely in line with our expectations, translated into 23% adjusted EPS growth, driven by another quarter of meaningful year-over-year gross margin accretion. While the macro environment in the U.S. remains choppy and increasingly promotional, our continued momentum across international markets and strong operational fundamentals and cost discipline enabled us to raise our full year adjusted EPS and EBITDA outlook, which I will discuss shortly. Overall, the external environment in which we are operating is challenging. Inflation though easing remains stubbornly persistent, while the imbalance of labor supply and demand pressures wages. The strong dollar and higher interest rates continue to be headwinds and importantly, consumption across U.S. shape categories and, in…
Q - Chris Carey
Analyst
I wanted to ask about durability of growth, specifically on the top line. Clearly, you're making some changes to the organization, refocusing on innovation. I do think that organic sales is being more driven by pricing, other loan and that type of backdrop. But as we start to glance toward fiscal '25, can you just talk about some of your own visibility and things you can do to perhaps get organic sales going again specifically in Shave and Feminine Care and perhaps some of the investments you think you may need to put in place in order to make that outcome achievable, specifically given some of the margin strength that you've seen year-to-date?
Dan Sullivan
Analyst
Chris, it's Dan. I'll start just by framing-out kind of how we think about growth drivers to-date, and I'll let Rod talk more specifically about North America and some of the implications there. I think it's important to separate North America results from international, and I'll start with international. We've now seen a couple of years of 6%-ish organic sales growth. This year will actually be slightly better than that, closer to 7% internationally with almost a 50-50 split of price and volume. So you're seeing both levers there drive growth. And that's all about the leadership changes we've made about strengthening the portfolio, about investing in innovation and then just really good execution on the ground. And so I think there is a healthy profile there with both volume and price. You're right. Eventually, the price becomes harder to get and you have to rely on the role of volume. And I think in international, we're starting to see those dynamics play-out already and feel really good about it. As we look to North America, I think you really have to look at the different categories, and this is particularly true in Q4, let alone as we think to the future. We are contemplating volume growth in Q4 in Fem Care and in Sun Care, which is a reflection of the launch of Carefree, a bit delayed, certainly, but now scaling here in Q4 and a stronger sun season here on the back-end of the year. And so as we think about the business, yes, it is volume at the core now. I wouldn't say that, that means there aren't opportunities to take price. But as we saw this year, they will be selective, they will be surgical, they'll be in markets where we have strong presence and strong brands and can lead with price. You saw that in Japan, you saw that in Europe, you saw that in Mexico in Sun. So I think there are opportunities to continue to balance. I'll pause there I'll let Rod talk more about North America and innovation.
Rod Little
Analyst
Chris, so look, the leadership changes that we announced today are really about accelerating our performance. We're going to finish here with our fourth consecutive year of growth on top line. We've got gross margin inflecting and now positive heading back towards the 2019 gross margin profile within the company. So from my perspective, we're making these leadership changes at a time where we're coming from a position of strength and we want to accelerate our progress from here and become truly high performing, not only in top line delivery, with better innovation, faster, more disruptive things we bring to the market to drive the sales line. But I think we can do an even better job in accelerating our gross margin accretion and really tightening up our overall sales and operations planning, our execution. Dan's uniquely positioned to work with the teams to do that, to bring commercial inputs and supply together in a way that we haven't done in this company. And with that comes, I think, significant unlocks over-time in the margin. So that's how we're thinking about it. As I look forward to '25 and beyond, I think we're still confident that our algorithm holds on both top and bottom line, and that's what we're prepared to work to deliver as we look to 2025.
Dan Sullivan
Analyst
Operator, next question, please.
Operator
Operator
That comes from Peter Grom with UBS.
Bryan Adams
Analyst
This is Bryan Adams on for Peter Grom. So just looking at the updated top line growth expectations for the year, you're implying a pretty similar growth rate in 4Q versus what we saw in 3Q despite some of the easier comparisons, particularly, I think it's in Shave and in Sun Care. And I know you mentioned the return to growth in fem care in 4Q, but I'd love to just get some color on kind of how you're thinking about growth across Shave and Sun and Skin, particularly given some of the comps.
Dan Sullivan
Analyst
You're right. We're looking at about a 1% growth in 4Q, which is similar to 3Q. I think the path there is different. We are certainly anticipating continued strong performance in U.S. Sun. We have a double-digit growth profile on our Sun Care business in the quarter. Remember, last year, we had the choppiness around the season and how it played out in 3Q and 4Q. And so cycling a bit of that on a shipment level and expecting the category to still grow mid to high single digits here as we enter the final quarter of the season. So double-digit growth profile on Sun, Grooming mid-single digits, in line with what we have seen, Shave slightly down, which is in line with what we have seen. I think the second inflection point comes in Fem Care, where now we anticipate low single-digit growth coming-off of declines that you would have seen in 3Q. And now that we have cycled through the execution challenges, the shelf reset challenges, a bit of buy-down on inventory, candidly, the perfect storm against launching a new brand platform. We're largely through that. Just to give everyone a data point, shelf resets this year took on average start to finish about 20 weeks across Fem Care. So the delays that we incurred here is we're bringing a new brand to shelf were meaningful. We're beyond that. Now we have to scale-up, now we have to activate, but ultimately feel good about a low single-digit growth profile on Fem Care versus the declines that you had seen. The last point I'll add for everyone just to comment on July. Shipments for July across Edgewell were in line with our expectations and what underpins our full forecast for the quarter. July is an important month, obviously. It's our biggest month of the quarter. That is some seasonal replenishments here in the U.S. happening. So feel good about how July has played out. There's obviously more work to do in the quarter, but off to a very good start in terms of solidifying the base for 4Q.
Bryan Adams
Analyst
One more quick one just on profitability. I think it's 7 straight quarters now of over 200 basis points of profitability and gross margin even as over that time, you've had volume growth kind of fluctuate here and there. So not trying to put the cart before the horse and talk about 2025 too much, but how are you thinking about the ability to kind of drive productivity at this level looking out to next year, like, is this level a fair starting point or is that kind of to be determined?
Dan Sullivan
Analyst
Yeah, it's a good question. I think what we've said and this year certainly bears that out is 300 basis points of tailwinds coming through a combination of productivity, price, and revenue management, good unit economics is a pretty good proxy for how we think about the business. There will be years when productivity will over-deliver, there might be years when price and revenue management might over-deliver. But I think that sort of 250 to 300 basis point combination of the 2 is a good proxy. Look, the productivity savings that this business is generating are significant. The team's focus, their ability to execute continue to surprise us in a good way and over-deliver is meaningful, and we need that. And as Rod said earlier, we actually want to double down on that strength here as we go forward and continue to generate more dry powder out of really, really good cost discipline in COGS and we'll continue to do that. Operator, next question, please.
Operator
Operator
That comes from Olivia Tong with Raymond James.
Olivia Tong
Analyst
I wanted to ask about the profile of what you look forward and your next head of North America, given the backdrop that we're dealing with right now and potentially some incremental challenges, at least from a macro perspective, how you're thinking about the profile of that person?
Chris Gough
Analyst
Olivia, this is Chris. Could you please repeat the question. We had difficulty hearing you. It's a little bit muffled.
Olivia Tong
Analyst
Sorry about that. Is this better?
Chris Gough
Analyst
Yes, okay.
Olivia Tong
Analyst
Great. My question was just on a better understanding of the profile of what you're looking for in your next head of North America, especially considering potentially a little bit more volatility from a macro perspective, how you're thinking about that next person.
Rod Little
Analyst
I thought you were going to Q4 sales of North America. So I'm glad we confirmed. Look, from a North American perspective, it's the most difficult competitive market in the world in our space. All the things that are new happen here and the big scale players have home-base here and a home-field advantage, if you will. So we're not the disruptor historically. It's the small nascent startup. We're also not the big scale player. And so we play in the middle of that. We've said before, we need to operate more like the disruptor and leverage scale where we have. And so as we look to the future, I'm very confident that we've got a great team in place in North America that can operate more and more like a disruptor. My intent with the next leader, which we are -- we started to search for, it's already underway is to have someone who can balance brand building and marketing with commercial execution equally as well. We have challenged categories at the moment, particularly in Shave, Wet Shave has become a little more challenged. We like our position that we have. My goal is to accelerate our performance. And with that is going to need very strong commercial execution, back to demand planning, the supply match with that. When we change something in our system, it needs to be flawless and we need to move faster on everything we do. And so the profile is going to be very balanced, if anything, lean more towards outstanding commercial execution. Again, we're in a mode in this company now where we're happy with the progress we've made, we're happy with the performance we've delivered over the last couple of years. Equally, we're very unhappy with where we can go with laser consumer focused, getting all the roadblocks out of our processes to deliver and delight on what the consumer wants and to do it faster and to do it with better execution. So a lot of words there, it's very complicated to do that. But I think we have all the ingredients to do it. Eric has done a very nice job for us over the last 4 years. He started right as the pandemic was hitting and has done a lot of good things. So this is a time, again, from a corporate perspective to pivot from a position of strength towards the consumer-oriented leader who's very, very commercially savvy.
Olivia Tong
Analyst
And then since you set me up on Q4 sales, it sounds like, obviously, that you mentioned that the magnitude of change on promotion will be pretty heightened in Q4. So as you think about your level of confidence on delivering the raised profit guide despite the sales challenges, could you just talk a little bit about that in terms of -- you sound very good in terms of the cost savings, but it also sounds like you plan on upping the promotion level pretty substantially as we go into the next -- not only in Q4, but as we head into fiscal '25 as well?
Rod Little
Analyst
Yeah, I think as we look to Q4, Olivia, we're very confident with the guidance we've put out there. We've got good line of sight to it. As Dan mentioned, we got to live sales and we know what we have on some of the spend lines. And so I think it's a prudent call to take the guide on EPS to $3 as the target point. I'll let Dan talk to the promotional spend. I will tell you, summary level is the promotional spin levels we think required to be competitive in market or contemplated in the guide.
Dan Sullivan
Analyst
That's the punch-line, you hit it well. We unpack the margin profile, Olivia. We've got a good line of sight on productivity savings. Equally, we've got a good line of sight on the step-up in promotions. We saw it in 3Q. We've modeled it in 4Q. So I think to summarize Rod's point, really, really comfortable in the overall profit picture for the fourth quarter and certainly emboldened by what we see as a solid July in line with what we had expected. Operator, next question, please.
Operator
Operator
And the next question comes from Dara Mohsenian with Morgan Stanley.
Dara Mohsenian
Analyst · Morgan Stanley.
Two things on my end. With the organization and management changes, is there a focus on yielding greater productivity as a result of those changes. I know it's a focus in general as you discussed earlier in the call. But is there anything incremental we should expect on that front? And then second, just as you think about marketing levels, A&Ps down year-to-date, it was down last year, it's down since pre-COVID-19. That's at odds from what we're seeing from peers in the industry. So just how you think about over the next couple of years here, if you need to re-boost marketing levels? Are you comfortable with levels and your share of voice where it is today? How do you think about that looking forward after this year?
Rod Little
Analyst · Morgan Stanley.
I'll start and then focus on the leadership changes and then let Dan take the marketing levels and A&P piece. With the leadership changes, as I indicated a little bit earlier, are being done, in my view, from a position of strength to take us to the next level of a truly high-performing company that ultimately commands a higher multiple. In simple terms, that's the objective. And so with that, there's 2 elements to that. The first element is around sales growth acceleration and driving faster organic top line sales. I think we've been pretty consistent, we've been on algorithm on average, if you take the last 4 years and CAGR that out. We want to continue to do that and even over-time, accelerate and be at the top end of the algorithm. So this is all about me personally putting my focus more on the North American market, which is the battleground and it's the profit pool of our company and it's me putting more of my focus on innovation and unlocking the innovation capabilities in this company. So that is the ultimate priority. To give me capacity and bandwidth to do that, Dan steps up, takes on more Japan and China no longer report to me, they're going to report into Dan with the rest of international and supply chain is going to slide into Dan away from me around really what I hope is our ability to unlock even faster gross margin accretion, cost productivity in the COGS world will remain a priority. We'll remain very efficient with our G&A spend. I don't contemplate any big G&A programs, for example. We like the leadership structure we have. We like the organization structure we have. There's always room to trim and be more efficient. We'll continue to look at it and do that, but there's nothing more implied there. And then I think importantly, to complete the play to give Dan capacity to do that. We're super excited to have Fran stepping up and becoming the CFO of the company. She's been with us for 5 years, very, very talented and gives us the ability to unlock if they're stepping up our time and energy to go after a higher performance.
Dan Sullivan
Analyst · Morgan Stanley.
Yeah. And then to finish the point on A&P, look, I think the questions you're asking Dara are good ones and are directly related, right? What you heard Rod say is we want more and we want it faster and that is what we are after. And part of the reason we want more is because we want more dry powder to invest behind this business. It's not all about A&P. There's R&D, there's innovation, there's trade spend, there's promo. We want to be able to compete in all aspects and more dry powder will help us do that. I would say if we look at the third quarter, we did spend at almost 12% rate of sale. It was not a light quarter, and we did allocate about 60 basis points of spend out of A&P and into what you would think of as gross margin trade promo retail execution. We've got to continue to get that balance right. We can't evaluate the horsepower we're putting against the business simply by the A&P line. But to Rod's point, these changes are going to help us accelerate all that we're doing and unlock more value, puts us in a better place to compete whatever the market requires. Sometimes it will be trade investment and promotion, sometimes it will be brand and equity, and we have to be prepared to invest in both. Operator, next question, please.
Operator
Operator
[Operator Instructions] And the next question does come from Susan Anderson with Canaccord Genuity.
Susan Anderson
Analyst
I guess maybe just a follow-up on the promotional activity. I'm just curious, is this -- I mean, you mentioned the drug channel, I think, being the worst in the U.S. Are you also seeing that at Walmart and Target, I think they both announced lowering prices. And then also, how should we think about that impact on the gross margin? It looks like to get to the year guidance. Fourth quarter is going to be about flattish. I guess I'm just curious how much of that is kind of pricing rolling off versus the higher promotion.
Dan Sullivan
Analyst
Look, we're seeing it in drug but also in mass, certainly in Target and Walmart. It is largely and disproportionately in Women's Shave and in Fem Care in terms of the categories in which we compete. That's where it is most pronounced, and it is across the board. It is promotional activity, it's BOGO activity, it is driving value to higher accounts. It is incremental feature and display, [indiscernible]. I mean you're seeing it all in those categories. So it is a breadth and a depth issue that we're seeing. And we're obviously reallocating our own spend to help drive that. In terms of the fourth quarter and the margin profile, you're absolutely right. We are basically not going to see any tailwinds in margin through price and revenue management in the quarter. And that is driven by the fact that we are now lapping the pricing that's been in play here, mostly in international markets, and we're stepping-up in our promotional intensity. So the margin gains that we see in the quarter, still healthy 60 basis points before exchange is all being driven by productivity savings with some negative offsets around inflation, capacity utilization and mix. I wouldn't say that's a good proxy going forward. We'll still contemplate price and the roll price plays for us as we look at 2025, that's a discussion for another day. But you're right, in Q4, the gains in margin are all being driven by productivity.
Susan Anderson
Analyst
And then maybe if you could just talk -- you mentioned that you want to be more the disruptor, I guess, do you think that you can do that with the brands that you have now or do you think that you need more brands such as, say, like a Billie that adds newness and differentiation to the portfolio? I guess how are you thinking about kind of that portfolio longer term? Do you expect to kind of tap on any new brands or is it really just kind of new product innovation?
Rod Little
Analyst
Look, I think we like our portfolio. We have today, I think it's much, much better, much stronger than it was a few years ago with the 4 acquisitions we've done. We look at all 4 acquisitions as being successful, integrated into the company and being part of the growth story here. And we have learned from the founders that have started those brands and in all cases came along with us and are still friendly with the company, it's not still in the company, friends of the company and helping us shape how we think about brand development, how we think about what speed looks like and breaking down barriers to move fast. And so look, I think we have lots of room within our portfolio to grow. We don't have a portfolio problem. We like the categories we play and we like the brands we have. Equally, there's an opportunity to enhance or develop even faster growth over-time with more disruptor brands potentially being in the portfolio. We set the bar very, very high to that. We're not looking to go deploy capital proactively towards addressing holes in the portfolio. But if things come up that we feel like we can create value with, of course, we'll look at them, but we're very happy with the portfolio we have. I would also just end on saying, I think we like our ability to acquire and integrate and halo the broader company with capability builds. And one I'll give you, just as a hard example, the team that runs Billie direct-to-consumer runs the whole company direct-to-consumer platform. And that has given us a very different level of capability as we think about activating our brands in an omnichannel world. So this is as much about capability as it is brand portfolio, and we're seeing the benefits from that in many, many areas. So I hope that helps.
Susan Anderson
Analyst
Yeah. That's really helpful. If I could just maybe add 1 more. I'm just curious on the private label razors if you've seen that kind of grow at all or are you seeing kind of more consumers flock towards that area just given the value there?
Rod Little
Analyst
I think we're seeing private label razor shares overall be relatively stable. Our private label business is good. It's doing what we expected it would do. And so from here, I would say, stable. And I think the other thing that's happening, brands that are well positioned, well architected in the value price point are winning. Billie, for example, up 180 basis points in share in the last quarter and growing share period-on-period. So it's not only private label. It's well architected value brands that are benefiting in this environment.
Dan Sullivan
Analyst
Operator, next question, please.
Operator
Operator
Actually, there are no questions at the present time, I would like to turn the floor to Rod Little, CEO for any closing comments.
Rod Little
Analyst
Thank you all for your time today, your continued interest and investment. We look forward to talking to you next quarter as we wrap the fiscal year and give a guide for what's ahead. Thank you.
Operator
Operator
Thank you. As mentioned, the conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.