Earnings Labs

Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (EPD)

Q4 2019 Earnings Call· Thu, Jan 30, 2020

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Q4 2019 Enterprise Products Partners L.P., Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Randy Burkhalter, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you. Please go ahead, sir.

Randy Burkhalter

Analyst · SunTrust. Please go ahead

Okay. Thank you, Dylan. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Enterprise Products Partners conference call to discuss fourth quarter 2019 earnings. Our speakers today will be Jim Teague and Randy Fowler, Chief Executive Officer of our Enterprise's General Partner. Other members of our senior management team are also in attendance for the call today.During this call, we will make forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 based on the beliefs of the Company as well as assumptions made by and information currently available to Enterprise's management team.Although management believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, it can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. Please refer to our latest filings with the SEC for a list of factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements made during this call.And so with that, I'll turn it over to Jim.

James Teague

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead

Thank you, Randy. Frankie Valli & The Four Seasons, back in the day had a song, “Oh, What a Night” to paraphrase where 2019 is concerned. Oh, What a Year. Enterprise reported record net income for the full-year of 2019 of $4.6 billion or $2.09 a unit. That's a 10% increase from 2018. DCF increased 11% to a record $6.6 billion and provided 1.7x coverage.We retained $2.7 billion of DCF, a 24% increase compared to 2018. The record cash flow we generated in 2019 allowed us to increase the distribution paid to our partners for the 21st consecutive year, while self-funding the equity portion of our growth capital investments. We again completed 2019 with a lot of financial flexibility and a very strong balance sheet.In addition to the financial highlights, we ended the decade with record performance in 2019 with all of our business segments reporting increased results, including 28 operating and financial records. We set 13 operational records, including almost 2 million barrels per day of marine terminal export volumes, 6.7 million barrels a day of liquid transportation volumes, and 10.4 million of barrels of oil equivalent per day of total system transportation volumes.During 2019, Enterprise completed construction and began service on approximately $5.4 billion of capital projects, including $2.5 billion that were completed in the fourth quarter. In addition, we have another $7.7 billion of projects underway. Substantially, all of 2019s major projects were completed on time and on budget. In addition, we are in discussions with potential JV partners and projects that beat our downstream value chain.I’d like to give a shout out to operations for successfully commissioning five new major new assets from late September to the end of the fourth quarter. LPG export expansion, iBDH, Mentone gas processing plant, our Panola Bulldog gas processing plant,…

Randall Fowler

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead

Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. Let me start with some of the income statement items for the fourth quarter. Net income attributable to limited partners for the fourth quarter of 2019 was $1.1 billion or $0.50 per unit on a fully diluted basis. A net income for the fourth quarter of 2019 included a non-cash impairment and related charges of approximately $82 million. This is primarily related to our investment in the Centennial liquids pipeline that we co-owned with marathon.The fourth quarter of 2019 also included non-cash mark-to-market losses of $25 million. Together these non-cash charges were approximately $0.05 on a fully diluted unit. Net income for 2018 included non-cash impairment and related charges of approximately $29 million and a non-cash mark-to-market gain of $237 million or a combined $0.10 per fully diluted unit. Excluding these non-cash items, EPU for the fourth quarter of 2019 increased by 13% compared to the same period in 2018.Moving on to cash flows. Cash flows from operations was $1.7 billion for the fourth quarter of 2019 versus $1.9 billion for the fourth quarter 2018, excluding changes in working capital accounts, cash flow from operations for the fourth quarter of 2019 was 11% higher than the fourth quarter of 2018.Free cash flow, which we defined is – we use the Bloomberg definition, cash flow from operations minus investing activities. And then we add back joint venture contributions from joint venture partners was $2.5 billion for the full-year 2019, which was 24% higher than free cash flow for 2018.We defined payout ratio as the sum of cash dividends, distributions and buybacks as a percent of cash flow from operations. Our payout ratio was approximately 58% for the fourth quarter of 2019 and 59% for the full-year 2019. For context on how we compare to…

Randy Burkhalter

Analyst · SunTrust. Please go ahead

Dylan, we're ready to take questions from our audience.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, sir. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Shneur Gershuni from UBS. Please go ahead.

Shneur Gershuni

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead

Hi. Good morning, everyone. I was going to say congratulations on the promotions, but I'm going to say congratulations on answering the calling. Just two quick questions here. I'm going to avoid the Oiltanking question. I'll leave that for later. But I was wondering if we can start off with the Crude segment. Obviously, the segment has been one of the beneficiaries of tight spreads. You sort of talked about the leverage ratio being 325 versus 350 if you exit out.With the capacity coming online, some of the frothy opportunities have come out. Can we view the new 4Q or the 4Q result is kind of the new run rate level from there to build organic growth? Or said differently, is the unit margin run rate in 4Q kind of what we should be thinking on a go-forward basis?

Randall Fowler

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead

Yes, sure. I wouldn't necessarily use fourth quarter as a run rate because we'll have additional volumes that will be flowing under, if you would, our interest in the Wink to Webster project that would start in the second half of this year. And then also with what we're expecting under that would flow in Midland-to-ECHO 4 in 2021 as we continue to see an increase in crude volumes going through the pipe. Some of that to the extent that we're benefiting from some spread opportunities and when we saw spreads contract that would be an offset. But again, we're looking at pretty good volume growth over the next couple of years flowing through those pipes.

James Teague

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead

This is Jim. As a matter of fact, we signed the contract last night with a pretty big producer that ran 65,000 to 75,000 barrels a day with an associated dog deal. So we’ve got some pretty good – pretty strong contracts to support those pipes.

Shneur Gershuni

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead

Okay. That makes total sense. And then maybe if we can just shift over to the LPG export side. I was wondering if you can talk about the status of the contracting type market at this point right now. Are you able to use the strength of the market to put in place contract terms that are even longer in nature than typical and at higher rate than typical? Like if you can sort of talk about what it would be like to negotiate a three-year contract today versus let's say a year-ago, what it would be like to contract the three-year type contract? Would it be at a higher rate? And would it be now for four years or even five years? So just wondering if you can sort of talk about how it's changed the dynamic of contract?

Randall Fowler

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead

We're fully contracted for next year. By definition and by design, we chose to do shorter terms because these were lower. We had a targeted level, we chose to lease some available for spot, which frankly was a good thing. And we think as time goes on and volumes grow, having a one-year to two-year contracts at the fees we were getting is a smart thing because we think those spreads will widen over time as volumes grow. Brent?

Brent Secrest

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead

I think the fees that we have out there right now and the fees that we're talking with the customers, the fact of the matter is those fees worked for us. And why they worked for us is because we have expansions in Brownfield projects that frankly are very attractive returns for what we invested over the last, call it, decades. So the opportunities for Enterprise to participate is we're going to contract such that we're comfortable operationally that we can satisfy all the contracts with customers. And if Graham and his team exceed those expectations and that creates opportunities in the spot basis. In terms of doing two-year, three-year, or four-year type contracts, the fact of matter is the levels that we're doing them right now. I think our customers, both domestically and internationally and frankly Enterprise are very happy with those numbers.

Shneur Gershuni

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead

All right. That’s it for me. Those were my key questions. Thank you very much guys and congratulation.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Colton Bean from Tudor, Pickering, Holt. Please go ahead.

Colton Bean

Analyst · Tudor, Pickering, Holt. Please go ahead

Good morning. Just wanted to follow-up on the discussion of buybacks. I think you mentioned if cash flow from ops comes in stronger than 2019 and you see upside there that could result in a higher buyback level. Are you still thinking about that as 2% of the incremental cash flow or would it basically be anything over and above 2019?

Randall Fowler

Analyst · Tudor, Pickering, Holt. Please go ahead

Okay. Colton, I'm sorry, the volume was really low. Could you repeat your question?

Colton Bean

Analyst · Tudor, Pickering, Holt. Please go ahead

Yes. Sorry about that. I'm just trying to understand on the discussion around buybacks, I think you mentioned that you're at – currently thinking about 2% of cash flow from operations, and if you come in higher than that number, particularly higher than you were at in 2019, you could see the buyback number move higher. Are you still thinking it would be 2% in aggregate or basically anything over and above 2019 might be directed towards buybacks?

Randall Fowler

Analyst · Tudor, Pickering, Holt. Please go ahead

I think going into 2020, our thought is, that we would use approximately 2% of the cash flow from operations. And some of that as Jim mentioned, we forecasted some of those spread opportunities not continuing into 2020. If we saw some of those opportunities continue into 2020, then that's what would give us potential to come in and think about doing additional buyback.

Colton Bean

Analyst · Tudor, Pickering, Holt. Please go ahead

Okay. And so the right way to interpret that is, if you had, say all $500 million should back up, it would be 2% of the $500 million?

Randall Fowler

Analyst · Tudor, Pickering, Holt. Please go ahead

Colton, I don't know if we would be that – I don't know if we would come in and be that limited on it.

Colton Bean

Analyst · Tudor, Pickering, Holt. Please go ahead

Understood. And just to follow-up on Shneur questions around LPG, thinking a little bit more short-term in nature here. I think you all have highlighted the gross capacity versus kind of a typical operating rate, is there any opportunities you all see maybe in Q1, Q2 here to get that operating rate closer to gross capacity?

Brent Secrest

Analyst · Tudor, Pickering, Holt. Please go ahead

This is Brent. I mean, I feel better about it in 2Q and I feel better about it in 3Q. I mean, there's things that we can't control, whether it's something that happens in channel or fog or things of that nature that frankly first quarter it's a little tough. But I mean, look it's never going to be 100%, ships got to move, I mean it’s just not the most efficient movement.But in terms of trying to get it above 70, 75 to the 80 type number there's things that we can do that we have control over, you guys hear us talk about using some of our offsite crude terminals to enhance that. It's about trying to optimize around the channels so that we can move vessels between docks. So I think typically as things come up, Enterprise gets better and better and we start moving more and more volume. I'm just trying to set your expectations of what you can see. And I think, if I think if we're doing somewhere, Graham and probably the 80% type number. That's a pretty good operational mode for us.

James Teague

Analyst · Tudor, Pickering, Holt. Please go ahead

For that type of facility, but we continue to challenge ourselves to get that last increment out every day. And we'll see the results over time.

Randall Fowler

Analyst · Tudor, Pickering, Holt. Please go ahead

Yes, I'll jump in. I don't think anybody has a utilization rate we have. I spent a lot of time at another company and another career and we never came close to the utilization rate that we have at Enterprise. We focus on keeping that refrigeration unit running all the time. And I forget, Bob, what is our utilization on that refrigeration unit? Do you have any idea?

Robert Sanders

Analyst · Tudor, Pickering, Holt. Please go ahead

I don't have it off the top of my head completely, but it's going to be in the upper-80s.

Randall Fowler

Analyst · Tudor, Pickering, Holt. Please go ahead

And we use our lay berths. We make sure that we got ships sitting here and just – and has come up with some creative contracting ideas that work effectively for us.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Spiro Dounis from Crédit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Spiro Dounis

Analyst

Hey, good morning, everyone. I mean just starting off with the CapEx guidance for 2021 that $2 billion to $3 billion range. Could you guys give us a sense of what ultimately is going to drive you to the higher low end of that range? And it looks like spot is not included in that overall backlog. Is that the main driver? And how should we think about the impact that could have in 2021?

Brent Secrest

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead

Yes. You're correct that the offshore terminal is not included in that. That's still in the application phase, in the approval phase with Myriad. And frankly, we don't look for the earliest that that project could be approved by Myriad is probably the second half of this year. And then on spot, I still think we could be in the range of $2 billion to $3 billion in 2021 even with spot. Because I think we've also had some discussions as far as with joint venture partners around spot. So I think we would still be in that $2 billion to $3 billion even with spot included in that number.

James Teague

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead

And with spot, I think in order to get people on spot, I think we're going to – they're going to own equity, Brent, and we're not driven to own 100% of spot. If you'd think about it, our value lies upstream of spot, a lot of our value and it wouldn't bother me for us not to own more than 40% of spot in the final analysis.

Spiro Dounis

Analyst

Got it. That's very helpful. And then just on Wink to Webster, can you maybe provide a little more color on why you decided to move forward under the UJI structure? And any more specifics on the mechanics basically how this ties into your current system? And just lastly on that, any sort of capital avoidance you can sort of expect as a result of this?

James Teague

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead

Well, it's a pipe in a pipe. So we do our own scheduling. The other partners have no idea whose barrels around that pipe. So other than turning valves, we operate the thing just like we do our other pipelines. And when you look at it on a per barrel basis, it's pretty cheap pipeline. Brent?

Brent Secrest

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead

Yes. One thing I'd add on that is, it's undivided joint interest or pipe within a pipe. And if you look at how Enterprise optimizes assets, I mean, it's just a lot easier for us to optimize something that is 100% owned by Enterprise. So that was the thought behind it. It's a very competitive rate. Obviously, there's economies of scale when you're building a pipe that big. And then when you're building a pipe that big and just have an Enterprise to deal with in terms of how we go about our daily business, that's why it makes sense for us.

Spiro Dounis

Analyst

Got it. Appreciate the color. Thanks, everyone.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Tristan Richardson from SunTrust. Please go ahead.

Tristan Richardson

Analyst · SunTrust. Please go ahead

Hey, good morning, guys. Appreciate the context and perspective on Slide 5 as it relates to payout. As it relates to returning cash in the way you've normally defined a target for repurchases this morning? Can you share your thoughts on defining this repurchase target on a regular basis, whether it would be annually or otherwise?

James Teague

Analyst · SunTrust. Please go ahead

Tristan, we’re, to a degree, we're entering into a new phase to a degree. And with – again in 2020, we've got – we have the $3 billion to $4 billion of growth CapEx. Then when we come in and look at 2021, $2 billion to $3 billion, given that our leverage is in the middle of our target range.And if we come in, and again the organic projects that we have, we like, we're going to be very capital disciplined in here. But we're entering in a phase that if our leverage is where if we're comfortable with it being, and we continue to see the business performed the way it does, growth CapEx in that $2 billion to $3 billion range, not only will we have free cash flow as we define it, but then we will also have additional cash flow just when you come in and even after you subtract dividends.So we really enter into it a whole new period of flexibility and where we have the potential if we don't see compelling organic opportunities then – and the balance sheet is where we like it. I think that comes back to that you're looking to come in and return more capital to partners.

Tristan Richardson

Analyst · SunTrust. Please go ahead

Helpful. Thank you. And then just a follow-up question, just on Shin Oak, I may have missed it in the prepared comments, but can you talk about volume sequentially in the quarter and how we should think about kind of general trajectory there?

James Teague

Analyst · SunTrust. Please go ahead

Tug, you want to take it and then I'll jump in?

Michael Hanley

Analyst · SunTrust. Please go ahead

Yes, sure. This is Tug Hanley. With respect to Shin Oak, its part of our entire system in the Permian integrates with our MAPL system or Seminole Pipeline or Chaparral Pipeline. So there's some seasonality associated with the volumes. For example, Conway to Mont Belvieu could impact flows on Shin Oak. What that said, Mentone is online. We're seeing higher volumes. Presently, we're seeing around 300,000 barrels a day and we've also been successful in getting some additional contracts recently. And we're in discussions with multiple parties right now on even more contracts. So we're going to keep driving forward and get it both.

Randy Burkhalter

Analyst · SunTrust. Please go ahead

How much you’re flowing on Shin Oak?

Michael Hanley

Analyst · SunTrust. Please go ahead

300 a day.

James Teague

Analyst · SunTrust. Please go ahead

Okay. So we're flowing 300 a day and that's without Alpine High doing what we expected it to do. And I spoke in my script about some underperformance in Orla. We have back-filled that as I said in my script, the best supply you can have or full processing plants and we're going to have full processing plants on a go forward basis. In addition, Tug's in some negotiations with people to get third-party movements on that pipe.

Tristan Richardson

Analyst · SunTrust. Please go ahead

Thank you guys very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Jean Ann Salisbury from Bernstein. Please go ahead.

Jean Ann Salisbury

Analyst · Bernstein. Please go ahead

Good morning. Just one for me, a lot of frac capacity is coming online in the first half of this year? Can you just give us the latest of what you're seeing? If there's been pressure on recontracting rates because of that?

James Teague

Analyst · Bernstein. Please go ahead

Zach, do you want to freeze up or you want to take it?

Zachary Strait

Analyst · Bernstein. Please go ahead

So far there's been still a good appetite when we go and look at all of our contracts. One or we don't have a whole lot of contracts rolling off a good period of time. But even when we would go in and I didn't talk to producers, I think the market is normalized. I think we were in a bit of an abnormal market for 2018 and 2019 and the market is normalized on contract rates normalizing on term, but we still see it, how the appetite for producers to take out fresh lists.

Randy Burkhalter

Analyst · Bernstein. Please go ahead

Are you full?

Zachary Strait

Analyst · Bernstein. Please go ahead

We are more than full.

Randy Burkhalter

Analyst · Bernstein. Please go ahead

So you're overflowing, Louisiana?

Zachary Strait

Analyst · Bernstein. Please go ahead

Overflowing in Louisiana, overflow in storage. Every frac their inner portfolio is full.

James Teague

Analyst · Bernstein. Please go ahead

We're not too concerned at this point.

Jean Ann Salisbury

Analyst · Bernstein. Please go ahead

Cool. That's all for me. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Christine Cho from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Christine Cho

Analyst · Barclays. Please go ahead

Good morning. I'd like to extend my congrats everyone on their new position. Starting with CapEx opportunities, post 2021, what do you see the opportunities for spending being, just as an industry we seem like we're going to be well capacitized on fractionation and LPG export front? For the next couple of years, after fourth quarter of this year, especially if production continues to slow and we seem to be over capacitized on Permian crude and NGL pipe, there'll, beyond the spot project or the opportunities just more bolt-on or does it increasingly become more Petchem oriented?

Randall Fowler

Analyst · Barclays. Please go ahead

We think Petchem is a bolt-on Christine. But in terms of slowing production, what Tony tells us is what is it 500,000 to 750,000 barrels a day of growth of crude in 2020, growth will obviously slowing but production is not slowing. And when we take a long-term look, currently let's say after 2025. We expect production to continue to grow particularly in the Permian basin. It is the standout in the United States.

James Teague

Analyst · Barclays. Please go ahead

I'm having a hard time with 500,000 to 750,000 barrels a day being slow growth, frankly. But in terms of where we go from here, we like primary petrochemicals, so PDH 2, we like. We got one heck of anchor customer. We like creating a petrochemical midstream service business meaning storage and pipelines in both ethylene and propylene.We like our export position. We think that grows and we're doing things as you know, to expand that. So that's what I see is doing. I don't see any big acquisitions or anything like that unless some hellacious deal comes along, but I see us continuing to go downstream and using that as leverage to do more upstream.

Christine Cho

Analyst · Barclays. Please go ahead

Okay. Helpful. Thanks. And then I know there were a lot of questions on the LPG exports, but I actually have a question on the ethane exports and demand out there? We don't seem to get that much variability in the ethane export volume, even when ethane prices moved pretty low. So is it fair to say that the markets abroad are absorbing as much ethane as possible? And if we're to see an increase here and more facilities that can take ethane as a feedstock needs to be built?

James Teague

Analyst · Barclays. Please go ahead

Yes, I think it's fair to say that it's a point-to-point commodity and what people have to spend to receive it as much small dollars to ship it as much small dollars. So I think it evolves we said when we put that project in that this was not going to be like LPG is going to be a point-to-point milk run type of the deal and that's what it is. And in order to grow that, and we have a lot of people talking to us, but they've got to spend money to be able to receive it.

Christine Cho

Analyst · Barclays. Please go ahead

In that context, do you think that like just given all the dynamics that LPG exports being pretty constrained, that like ethane could go methane negative this year?

James Teague

Analyst · Barclays. Please go ahead

Well, if it does, we'll go make a lot of money, but I don't think so personally.

Christine Cho

Analyst · Barclays. Please go ahead

Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Jeremy Tonet, from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Yes. Good morning. This is Charlie. First question just on project timing, notice frac 10 and 11 slipped the bed also didn't see ATEX expansion anymore? Just wanted your thoughts there?

James Teague

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead

Justin or Zach?

Justin Kleiderer

Analyst

Yes. We did see him slip slightly. I think we had a pretty aggressive schedule to start with. But from the impact to Enterprise, we were still taking all the product that was contracted for 10 and 11. We've got a best-in-class storage facility and so those – all that white grade is going there and our producers don't even know. So once I get up we'll frac it all out of storage.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

And ATEX?

Michael Hanley

Analyst · SunTrust. Please go ahead

Yes, we're still moved. This is Tug. We're still moving forward with ATEX expansion it's going to be sometime in 2022, early 2022.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay. And then some buybacks, when thinking about the 2%, is this before or after working capital changes? Just thinking about newer projects coming into service net impacting operating accounts?

Zachary Strait

Analyst · Bernstein. Please go ahead

When we think about it, and when you look at sort of – when we take it in context, as far as when we compare to the other S&P sectors, it is the gap term, cash flow from operations. And so it is after working capital changes, but working capital changes can be quite positive too.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay, great. And then sorry one last one and I know you guys get the question a lot, just your thoughts on C-Corp conversion just giving kind of the price reaction we saw last December after the conference in a commentary there?

Randall Fowler

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead

Yes, really no updated thoughts around that at this point in time, something that we continue to look at, but really no update on the vault.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Pearce Hammond from Simmons Energy. Please go ahead.

Pearce Hammond

Analyst · Simmons Energy. Please go ahead

Good morning and thanks for taking my questions. My first question is you've discussed the possibility of redirecting Midland-to-ECHO to back to NGL service. Just curious what the latest was on that?

James Teague

Analyst · Simmons Energy. Please go ahead

The latest is, it’s staying in crude service for the foreseeable future, but we have the option to always – it's kind of a need option. We can take it out of crude service from putting in NGL service and then we can take it out NGL service and put it back in crude service. It's called an option, isn't it Brent?

Brent Secrest

Analyst · Simmons Energy. Please go ahead

We might call it.

Pearce Hammond

Analyst · Simmons Energy. Please go ahead

Great. And then as a follow-up, one thing during the Q4 earnings season thus far has been weakness in the global chemical sector. And just curious if you're experiencing that in your Petrochemical segment and what's your outlook is for the segment for 2020?

James Teague

Analyst · Simmons Energy. Please go ahead

Chris?

Christopher D'Anna

Analyst · Simmons Energy. Please go ahead

Hi, this is Chris D'Anna. Overall, our demand still remains fairly strong. We've seen some weakness at the end of fourth quarter in our export volumes to Europe, but that demand is picking back up again.

Pearce Hammond

Analyst · Simmons Energy. Please go ahead

Great. Well thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Keith Stanley from Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Keith Stanley

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Please go ahead

Hi. Good morning. First just wanted to revisit the sources and uses of cash for 2020. So you mentioned the $3 billion debt offering, $1.5 billion maturities, and then you said the remaining $1.5 billion could fund about 50% of growth CapEx give or take. It seem like, I think 2019 you did at least $2.5 billion of DCF above the distribution.So it seems like you're going to have excess cash on the balance sheet above what's needed to fund CapEx this year. So can you just talk about how you would look to deploy that? Do you wait and see how CapEx shakes out? Would you pay down debt or just how you're thinking about that?

Randall Fowler

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Please go ahead

Keith, right now we're just seeing how the year progresses. But again, we've got $3 billion to $4 billion of growth CapEx, and even if you come in and you've say we're at the midpoint of that range of $3.5 billion of growth CapEx, you divide that – multiply that by 50%. That's 1.75. So that would totally consume the remaining proceeds from the debt deal then we would be coming in and using either. Again, cash flow from operations or borrowings under our credit facility to come in and fund the remainder.

Keith Stanley

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Please go ahead

Okay. It just seems like cash flow from operations and the remaining portion of the debt funding is going to be more than you need for CapEx in 2020. Is that how you see it looking out right now?

Randall Fowler

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Please go ahead

Yes. Keith, we're getting early into the year. Yes, we may exceed that, I mean some of that – one of the reasons we're talking about coming in and do it and using 2% of the cash flow from operations for a buyback.

Keith Stanley

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Please go ahead

Okay, great. And then – apologies for this. I'm not sure I'm fully understanding the Midland-to-ECHO 3. So Jim, I think you said it wouldn't run more than 200,000 to 300,000 a day before Wink to Webster starts up. So I just want to clarify, any three is still a separate pipeline or expansion project for you that's distinct from Wink to Webster at this point?

James Teague

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Please go ahead

Three is a part of Wink to Webster as an undivided joint interest. So it's a pipe in a pipe.

Keith Stanley

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Please go ahead

Okay. So there's no incremental capacity that you guys are separately adding in 2020. It's just you are now partners on Wink to Webster?

James Teague

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Please go ahead

That's exactly right.

Keith Stanley

Analyst · Wolfe Research. Please go ahead

Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Ujjwal Pradhan from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Ujjwal Pradhan

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. Two quick ones. First, just want a bit more clarity on the buyback guidance today. Should we consider the guidance as more of a programmatic perhaps on a quarterly basis or will it be opportunistic like last year?

Randall Fowler

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead

Again, I mean, what we're intending to do this year is intending to use 2% of cash flow from operations to come in and do buybacks. Now we'll do that opportunistically during the year. I don't know if you want to say we're going to be opportunistically programmatic or programmatically opportunistic. That's what we're intending to do.

Ujjwal Pradhan

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead

Got it. And another quick one. I remember last year when we had the constraint in the Permian and you're moving quite a bit of a spot volumes. I think you mentioned that the cost of using DRA were as high as $2 per barrel. Has that abated now that there's been more capacity moving the barrels in the Permian?

James Teague

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead

I think we're still using some DRA. Graham?

Graham Bacon

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead

We're still using it. We've learned to optimize it. We can get that incremental. That $2 was the last incremental barrel. And we watched that very closely and have done some things. Not doing $2 a barrel.

Randall Fowler

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead

I think one of the things though that – and Brent can jump in. We're going to have four pipelines out there. When we optimize those four pipelines, we're probably moving 1.3 million, 1.4 million barrels a day, Brent.

Brent Secrest

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead

Yes.

Randall Fowler

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead

And that's optimizing it. So you're getting the lowest cost possible. But if you – if the spreads there, we can probably take that to 1.8 million barrels a day at a cost using DRA.

Brent Secrest

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead

Yes. That assume Seminole in service, but you guys just like everybody else, I mean we have our cost of what the next tranche is.

Ujjwal Pradhan

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead

Got it. Thanks. That helps.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael Lapides from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Michael Lapides

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead

Hey guys. Thanks for taking my question and congrats everybody on executive announcements. I hate to ask this one because it's obviously very unfortunate and very scary globally, but are you seeing in January at all in impacting the export markets yet for either crude or NGLs giving what's going on in China and how it's impacting business and how it's impacting demand in China?Can you just kind of talk about what you've seen over the last couple of weeks and how you think about the range of the impacts on – including on your guidance levels for – and your outlook levels for how you're thinking about 2020?

Brent Secrest

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead

Yes, this is Brent. So the quick answer is we haven't seen an impact in terms of volumes. We haven't seen an impact in terms of fees at the dock. And whether its freight rates or whether it's this, I mean there's things that happen and I think that what you'll see on our system, it's no different when we pick out tranches to move from Midland-to-Houston. The people that are the most cost efficient are going to move the volumes.And so people who are the least cost efficient start turning off or start decreasing volumes. And we'll look at different markets and look at different operators and look at different lack of integration of one owner. And my guess is those are the ones who are probably going to experience that sort of situation first. And the ones that are most cost efficient will continue to move the volumes.

Michael Lapides

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead

Got it. Thank you. One quick follow-up. In the quarter, you talked about Midland-to-ECHO 1 a little bit in the release. Can you just give a little more detail in terms of kind of what's happening on the pricing or tariff side there relative to either the prior quarter or prior year?

Brent Secrest

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead

This is Brent again. I mean, in terms of tariff, I mean it's not a whole lot different than the last question. I mean, the volumes don’t change, I mean that pipeline is been full every single day. In terms of how the economics work on that, my personal opinion, I think shipowners win because things get less efficient from a shipping perspective, but ultimately it's consumers or the producers of the product that ultimately bear that cost.

Michael Lapides

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead

Got it. Thanks guys. Much appreciated. And I will obviously follow-up offline with Randy and team. Thanks.

Randy Burkhalter

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead

Dylan, this is Randy Burkhalter. We have time for one more question please.

Operator

Operator

Sure. Thank you, sir. Our last question comes from Danilo Juvane from BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Danilo Juvane

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Good morning. Thank you for squeezing me in. One question of clarity here. How are you guys thinking about the buyback relative to the 2% of CFFO, if you take out the Oiltanking units in cash versus equity, does that change that calculates for you?

Randall Fowler

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Yes. I mean, in our mind that would be a plan. I mean, you could come in and say that's a plan, some of the buyback against the OTA. In our mind to the extent that we use cash consideration on the OTA transaction, that essentially would be a buyback.

Danilo Juvane

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Got it. That's it for me. Thank you.

James Teague

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead

Thank you. Dylan, would you give our listeners the replay information?

Operator

Operator

Sure. Thank you, sir. This call is available for replay starting today, the 30th at 1:00 PM through February 6th at 11:59 PM. To access the replay, you will need to dial (1800) 585-8367 and enter the replay code 9596106. Again, the dial in number is (800) 585-8367, replay code 9596106.

James Teague

Analyst · UBS. Please go ahead

Thank you. We'd like to thank everyone for joining us today and that ends the call. Have a good day.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.