Onur Erzan
Analyst · UBS. Your line is open
Thanks, Nick. Yeah, as was mentioned on the question, we came off of a very strong Q1 in terms of flows at AB. All of our three channels were net positive. April is always a tricky month for us given it’s the tax season. I’ll come back to the market volatility, but given our bookers, we are skewed towards high net worth and also high net worth, particularly in our private wealth business, in our US retail business, we tend to get some outflow pressure in April even when the markets are relatively well functioning. That combined with the heightened market volatility and the uncertainty around the rate cuts and inflation puts some challenges around the flows, particularly around the retail channels. As you know, we have a very strong Asia retail franchise. Whenever there’s a raised uncertainty, we tend to see a slowdown in flows in that region. That being said, all of the signs are quite positive. If I’d go beyond April, several strengths emerge. One, if you look at our institutional pipeline, our institutional pipeline increased materially several billion dollars in the first quarter. So that gives us confidence in terms of flows into our institutional channel going forward. As you know, Equitable commitment to private assets continues and our private assets continue to grow rapidly and we still have another $6.5 billion from the Equitable commitment. So that’s a positive. And then, on the retail side, as I think about fixed income, first, typically steepening yield curve and widening credit spreads means long-term better returns for fixed income strategies and we benefited from fixed income rebalancing in ‘23 and ‘24. We had $35 billion of net flows when that rebalancing happened in the past. So, once this rate kite cycle starts, we’re going to see the money flowing back to taxable fixed income and we’re going to benefit most likely disproportionately from that. And on the equity side, the good news is some of our flagship products and geographies are performing well. For instance, our Japan franchise remained strong despite all of the equity market and currency volatility and we are benefiting from some of the structural trends there like the new retirement accounts called NISAS. So all in all, April definite a tough month for almost every asset manager. We are not an exception. But when I look at where the puck is headed, I think we are very well positioned in terms of benefiting from the markets, as well as our distribution channels.