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Equinor ASA (EQNR)

Q2 2007 Earnings Call· Mon, Jul 30, 2007

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Transcript

John Olaisen - Carnegie

Management

Yes please. I wonder if you could elaborate a little bit on the realized gas price in Q2. It seem to be somewhat lower than what's most -- oil reported. So Vince [ph] could you tell us how much was spot exposure in the quarter versus long-term contracts and also if you could give a little bit indication of the second half of the year; what kind of gas price would you expect for the second half of the year to realize. Thank you?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Okay, the gas price, as I said, was 153 order, per standard cubic meter which is down 13% compared to the same quarter last year and also down compared with the first quarter of this year. The average gas price is an average between sort of our long-term contracts which is lot of contracts linked to different products typically gas oil and fuel oil products and typically with the six months plus-minus delay and also a combination of the volumes that we sell into the UK market at the NBP pricing. So, this is a mathematical calculation based on these long-term contracts and there is no special items, anything except for the delays that we have in the link to gas oil, oil fuel typically of approximately six months and the average quotations on the NBP. Compared to first quarter, for instance, we are down 12% and our long-term contracts were down 12% and NBP were down 12% on average. So we don't see any special items, issues explaining our gas price, it's an average compared to what has actually been achieved and what just logically can be calculated from the fundamentals.

John Olaisen - Carnegie

Management

[Question Inaudible].

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Well Statoil is a quite big player in the gas market and I don't think we will give volumes on the overall mix but it's pretty much in the same range as you saw in the first quarter, maybe slightly down compared to the first quarter but not significantly down.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

All right. I will take couple more questions from the Internet. There is a series of questions from Theepan Jothilingam from Morgan Stanley. I will take a question out of these. On Snøhvit, he has got two questions to ask on Snøhvit. First the... could you give us an update on the startup and whether you have... you are still on track and what volumes do you expect this year?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Well, on the startup we are on track. There is no news, there has been good progress and we always say when we talk about Snøhvit that it's a lot of challenges ahead of us still, and in particular as we move from project phase into a production testing and making sure that everything works, there could always turn-up surprises and things that we have to make functioning but overall we are according to plan, we expect regular deliveries from 1st of December this year and we expect... that we can get gas to the tanks late August, early September and then have our first export opportunities or shipments during September. That's the overall time schedule but it is tight and there is no always risk in this phase that things might happen that might interrupt our plans but so far so good. In terms of volumes it's not significant volumes as we're talking about regular production only from the last month and maybe some volumes ahead of that but it's not significant volumes in any case that we're talking about for this year.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

And Theepan has got a follow-up question what about the Oil Sands, maybe, can you give us an update on that?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Well the Oil Sands in any case is a marginal project and Eldar suggest... said in the presentation we have completed the well and we will now have to go back and see what are the implications from that whether that justifies the development but at this time it's probably important to give you an indication and a direction.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Any questions from the... any other from the audience in Oslo?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

I have a question in relation to the slide standing there, production estimates for this year, if the oil price should be $15 to $20 higher how much should that impact on the production sharing agreements? I have another question, also if I may, in relation to this Rosebank discovery. It's now being drilled to appraisal when are you planning to start or Chevron planning to start. Third one, it's published results from number two but not number one, is it possible to give a comment on that? Eldar Sætre - Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President: I could do the Rosebank first that's... as I said both of the two wells is included in my statement that, the results, test results so far is positive. So beyond that there is... it's a side track and it confirms, and is included in the positive statements. So now we are waiting, sort of, just started there, the third well in this three-well program, and then we will have to wait and see what kind of possible development solutions that Chevron might come up with. So on the PSA, Togam [ph]?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Yes. On the PSA, effects, for the last year's we have enjoyed very high prices. So, we have actually moved into the new trenches in the PSA contracts, moving away from cost recovery to profit trenches. So, currently the production is less vulnerable to changing in... changes or increases in the oil prices. And as we said, we have some new fields, which are still in profit now under cost recovery phase; Dalia, for instance, in Angola. I won't give any specific numbers, but normally it takes a time until they enter the next trenches. So, I would say that the number is fairly robust to changes in the oil price. Lars Troen Sørensen - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations: All right. We have two questions Alastair Syme from Merrill Lynch. To confirm the... I would just see... to confirm the approximate restart dates for Kristin and Kvitebjørn. Can you do that? And secondly what level of Sincor entitlement production is factored into the 2007 production guidance. Let's take the Kristin and Kvitebjørn startup dates first.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Well. When it comes to... there is no news... significant news on any of these fields. Actually as I said it's following the plans, basically that we established back in May. Kristin is... we expect that to be... there is one remaining well that needs to be drilled now, before we can turn the production up to plateau level and there is always risk. But assuming everything works fine, we expect production from Kristin to reach plateau, let's say early, early in the fourth quarter. When it comes to Kvitebjørn, we'd like to be a little bit more un-precise on that, so we still say in the... during the fourth quarter and also on Kvitebjørn, we only now have one remaining well. The first well is completed. So, we are talking about one more well until we can go back into full production on Kvitebjørn. On the Sincor, I got the exact number but the basic assumption is that the transfer into the mixed company structure and taking that down to approximately 10%. The implications of that transfer is included basically on the production guidance that you can see on the screen now. Lars Troen Sørensen - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations: Okay. We had about the same question from Colin Smith [Dresdner Kleinwort] about Sincor. So, we won't repeat that. But Iain Reid from UBS has got the question here. Can you give your guidance for the full year tax rate under your oil price assumption?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

All right. I expected that question in that form. As you have probably noted the tax rates for the quarter is fairly low on the corporate level. It's 61.3%. And Eldar went through kind of the things that drives, both the net financial results and income outside the NCS. On the level going forward, we normally don't give any guiding to it. Over time, we have said earlier, that you should expect that average tax rate for the corporate will be somewhat reduced due to the higher share of international production and income. And you should also be aware of that this number will probably fluctuate quite much from quarter-to-quarter, as such, and I wouldn't say that the number we see from this quarter is representative for the full year, the things that really affects this quarter is that we have a positive financial results in insulation, and we also have the effect of the gas prices, which is lagging the oil prices. So, in a stable world, if we would have anticipate a somewhat higher gas prices we shouldn't have increased the tax rate somewhat. So, for the full year, personally, I would not be very surprised if it is somewhat above of the 61%. Lars Troen Sørensen - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations: All right. We'll go back to Theepan from Morgan Stanley. He has got more questions here, beside the stop when that's been reported and you are in negotiations with Gazprom Neft to develop the Lopukhovsky block at Sakhalin Island, do you expect a potential further deal in Russia?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

We are in discussion with the Gazprom based on the MoU... on a different set of various opportunities. So, I will not elaborate any of those specifically, but I cannot exclude that we will have at a point reach conclusions on agreements to Gazprom on working together on other opportunities beyond the obvious one which we are discussing that's the nation bonds, okay, they destruct none of the opportunity. But, I will not comment any specifically on the prospect that was mentioned. Lars Troen Sørensen - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations: Okay. We have a question here from Dan Barcelo at Bank of America. The Deepwater Gulf of Mexico, is the strategy acquisition there or shifting towards drilling such as the Eni with Exxon, any updates on exploration progress in the US? Eldar Sætre - Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President: I just touched upon the exploration on the Gulf of Mexico in my presentation. We have drilled... have completed four wells this year which are all under evaluation. We are, as we speak, drilling four or five additional wells and we plan approximately four wells in addition to those. So, 12, 12, 13 wells is overall exploration program that we are looking at this year in the Gulf of Mexico. So, I think that gives us an indication of that we are gradually getting more into the mode of exploration on the... in the Gulf of Mexico. Having said that, I will never rule out the option of further acquisitions also as an opportunity, but the main focus is to pursue and go further with comprehensive exploration program. Lars Troen Sørensen - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations: Okay there a question from Mark Hume at Credit Suisse. And you have recently sold your stake in Murchison and Trym, are you expecting to become aggressive in portfolio rationalization on the NCS?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

I don't see any change in the strategy. We have always from time-to-time done that kind of sales on the NCS and this is reflecting continues portfolio optimization that we also do in Norwegian continental shelf. So, in this case we believe that other stakeholders could put more attention into these small developments and maybe create more values than we were able to do. So, when it comes to the new, the merger and the new companies I think we will discuss that kind of issues in that context and I have nothing further to add at this point. Lars Troen Sørensen - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations: Okay. There is another question from Dan Barcelo, Bank of America. Do low US natural gas prices alter your plans and maybe LNG volumes and what lend at price is required to cover the cost of capital?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

If we were to conclude at that, I don't see really what we could do short-term on that but we have... don't have any fundamentally changed view on gas prices. I talked about the European gas market in my presentation and that... the same goes for the US gas market. So, we don't see it longer termand when it comes to Snøhvit, it's a longer term perspective that we need to take, whether there is any change for us in the perspectives on the US gas market. When it comes to the breakeven price on Snøhvit, well we have discussed the price in the range of US $4 per barrel to cover our discount rates; cost of capital is lower than that. So, you are talking about the below US $4 per MBTU gas price at least as a breakeven against our cost of capital. Lars Troen Sørensen - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations: All right. We will take another question from Mark Hume at Credit Suisse. Based on your $60 scenario for production guidance for this year, can you give us an idea of approximately your breakeven on oil price for 2007? Further, are you continuing with your shareholder return policy of about 50% payout going forward?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

The shareholder distribution, what I can do on that is really just to refer to our dividend policy, and there is no other statement than what you can read out of our dividend policy. So, on the 60... on the breakeven, Togam [ph], I don't know if you can comment on that.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Yes. The breakeven price for the portfolio, I mean, in general terms, we are investing for growth and we are one of the few companies growing our production currently with a intensive investment program and that would, of course, be reflected in the breakeven price currently you see in the Company. And you know we match that with a generous distribution of funds to our shareholders. And so the breakeven price, we don't have an update on that, compare to what we've said earlier, but it is fairly the same as we have in front of guided on percent in the earlier respect to that. Lars Troen Sørensen - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations: Okay. There are two questions on tax rates from the Internet, and then we will take your questions from Oslo here. There is a question from Paul Benning [ph] at HSBC, and there is question from Miss. Michele Della Vigna from Goldman Sachs. And they are both alluding to, could you tell us what the tax rate was on Fx gains and financials in the second quarter?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Yeah I think Togan [ph], we will do that as well.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

The tax on the net financials, in the second quarter the tax rate on the net financials was around 37%. And 37% is broadly in line with what we would expect when we have positive financial results, maybe a little bit on the low side. That... but tend to a very quite a lot from quarter-to-quarter, so seeing that as a stable number is probably something you should not anticipate if you look at, for instance, the second quarter last year, we had approximately the same net financial results but we had actually implied tax rate to that result of 95% and that was due to that we had the gain in another company and we had a loss abroad related to that and you know that will vary quarter-from-quarter depending on how the different currencies are fluctuating and how difference are flowing. So, but in general terms I would say that the tax rate on net financial of 37% is maybe a little bit on the low side from what you normally would anticipate. Lars Troen Sørensen - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations: We have the next question from the audience here in Oslo.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Yes. There were report about three weeks back from the International Energy Agency pointing to much sharper fall in Norwegian production than you have been stating earlier. Is there a sort of... should we be any alarmed about this report or do you still sort of see things as you have done?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

I haven't got any details about that report fresh in my mind but the direction I have noticed, basically I think what you should assume is that we have access to the same information as they have, and they are basing sort of their forecast on production, on information from the operators and obviously from Statoil, so there is nothing in their statements which has any applications compared to the guidance that we have given you. So that's the general statement to that. Lars Troen Sørensen - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations: There's a question from Christine Tiscareno of Standard & Poor's. Chevron has reported that Tahiti, in the Gulf of Mexico, has been suspended indefinitely. Do you have any idea what indefinitely means?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

No, no. But I know a little bit about Tahiti. It's... so Tahiti is delayed due to a material weakness in the, so called, Shackles that sort of connects this power by to the subsurface. And the pillars in the subsurface, they need to be replaced before they can go on with the project. And the original plans, Tahiti was set to be in production in mid-2008, and I think the best guidance that Chevron has indicated now is that this will happen sometime during 2009. And hopefully we will see at the early part of 2009 compared to the alternative, so that's the information we had and that we can give at this time. Lars Troen Sørensen - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations: Okay, we have... I am sorry, there's a question from the audience in Oslo.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Could you make a comment on the project in Nigeria which is expected to come on stream next year for the sort of unrest in Nigeria, whether or not it has any effect on the startup there?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

To my knowledge there is no changes in the time schedule for the Agbami field, so that should be in production in 2008 as planned. It's a project where there is cost pressure, to put it that way, but beyond that there is no issues and the unrest that we have seen in Nigeria hasn't at least had any impact on this project as far as we know. Lars Troen Sørensen - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations: There's a question from Dan Barceló of Banc of America here... and are you able to provide any update on the expected merger synergies from the Hydro deal. Lars Troen Sørensen - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations: I think, I'll just answer that question, actually, because I started in my introduction with saying that we can't give you any update on what's happening with the merger and that also gives -- that also goes for the synergy. We have to close the deal first and then we can update you on synergies as we go along. Lars Troen Sørensen - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations: And then -- but then there is a question from Peter Ramsay at Argus Media; which also goes on the merger. Do you have any figures on staff retention of Hydro and Gas personnel on positions currently allocated within, sort of, Hydro?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

I am not quite sure that I understood the question but obviously there is... most people that comes from the oil... had oil and gas business is going to be continue and be a part of the new company, and there has been very few people leaving in the situation that we have seen, and so we don't see sort of this as an issue. But I don't know... I'm not quite sure I understood the question correctly. Lars Troen Sørensen - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations: Okay. We are almost... well, Peter Ramsay is here again. Can you give us an update on partner discussions on the 12 further development project? When might the PDO be submitted and is there any timescale for increased gas delivery to Europe and when these might arrive?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

There is basically no news. The license group is working on the plans for the 12 further development and at least we are not looking at a PDO this year. So, we are into next year. But beyond that in terms... to be more specific on time schedules, I have no information. Lars Troen Sørensen - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations: There is a question from Iain Armstrong at Brewin Dolphin. What proportion of your capital employed is currently not earning an economic return?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

To my knowledge there is no assets that we are involved in that we are not making good returns on at the moment. We have seen no negative numbers actually walking through. All our numbers stood now in the second quarter. So, broadly speaking I think we are happy with more parts of our business at the moment that also includes the downstream as well. Lars Troen Sørensen - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations: We have a question here from Oslo.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

What tax rate can we expect in the natural gas segment going forward?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

And again to my expert here.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Okay, well. What to expect... the last two quarters have been more typical when it comes to home metro, the results is related to natural gas, we've seen all the internal prices is making the margin into Norway. But in general, some you should probably see a tax rate, most of the business is in the NCS segment, which is 78% margin tax rate, but then you have some results especially at the coastal plant, which is on the onshore tax part. So, in the 60s, it's probably good assumption. Lars Troen Sørensen - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations: Right. We'll take one from Theepan again from Morgan Stanley. Costs... most of your peers are seeing further cost inflation. Can you give us some color on what you see and how much you are able to mitigate for further years? Eldar Sætre - Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President: I think the whole industry is facing the same cost challenges, and we have seen some... on new developments... we have seen some quite significant cost increases on development projects, obviously, varying from project-to-project but quite significant. And we see that whether we are partnering projects or we are operating the projects ourselves. Basically I think we have been working on strategies, contract strategies and sourcing strategies for sometime now. And I think we have been able to really synchronize all our activities in terms of sourcing across the company and across operational and development projects and drilling and so on, and establishing a set of contracts and freight contracts and longer-term contracts that is our response in a way to the increasing cost pressure. That's the best we can do in the current environment to make sure that we have suppliers that we can rely on, and have a long-term relationship with and that we have contract structure which is the best possible that we can have. So, I think that's really the general... my general response to that question. Lars Troen Sørensen - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations: You have other question from Oslo.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

In the natural gas division there has been, for the second quarter in a row, fairly large loss for derivatives; could you comment on whether this is going to be recurring or if this is sort of just coincidence that happened twice in a row or in terms of little bit more detail on it perhaps here?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

In the second quarter, we didn't have much losses on derivatives; it was compared to the second quarter of last year, where there was a change, so the derivatives in the second quarter for the natural gas was minor. For the time to come, of course, it's just to predict the development of the commodities. So, I think with derivatives it will swing and there will be changes from quarter-to-quarter. But to give any guidance on how it will develop, that we can't do. Lars Troen Sørensen - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations: There is a question from the Internet here from Junaid Shah [ph] from JP Morgan. With regards to your North American Oil Sands acquisition, how close are you to deciding on whether to install an upgrader or not?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

As we said, when we did the acquisition, the base case is still for us to install an upgrader. But that's the flexibility that we have in this situation and we are just now focused on getting the organization in place, the management in place and also continuing to get the approval for the Leismer Demonstration Project. That will give us the first 10,000 barrels of production late 2009 or early 2010 and then our studies to look into this is ongoing. But the base case definitely is an upgrade for the first, at least for the first phase of this project. Lars Troen Sørensen - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations: There is a question from James Herbert [ph] at Deutsche Bank. What volumes do you expect Shah Deniz to be at by year end?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

I haven't got the exact number. I think the overall second quarter production was at 10,000 barrels per day for Shah Deniz and half of that in the first quarter. As I said gas is now flowing into Turkey from early July. So, we're starting to normal [ph] gas and so we will see a ramp up. All three wells are in production now, but one is injecting and supporting the production. So, we are producing from two wells, but three wells are in place and the third well or the fourth well is expected to be in production late this year. But, overall, the plateau production on the Shah Deniz, we will not see full plateau production until two to three years ahead. So, but an exact number guidance for the full year... I haven't got that number for you actually. Lars Troen Sørensen - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations: There is question from Patrick Giler [ph] at Merrill Lynch. Could you please give us an update on when you expect to receive gas from the Melange [ph] field and whether you believe early flows will need to report expected production levels of 20,000 to 30,000 cubic meters per day?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

I can't confirm that the numbers here, but our pure refer to in this case is just the efficient platform Melange [ph] which is a production startup from the 1st of October to the extent the operator is able to deliver the gas before that we would be very happy. Lars Troen Sørensen - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations: Okay. I think we are almost done. There are couple of questions in... one from Theepan with that some excellent exploration success, I know it's early days but can you give some indications of which were high impact or the ones you have been most encouraged about?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Well. As I just said on the Norwegian continental shelf, I mentioned the... in particular the Onyx discovery and the Ermintrude discoveries on the NCS, those have been very important for us this quarter. And on the International, the Rosebank obviously that we have discussed has been also very, very important and maybe the most significant so far and on the International side. Lars Troen Sørensen - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations: One more question from Oslo. There is a couple of questions left on the Internet but they are extremely detailed, and I think we would actually answer them from Investor Relations directly to the ones... other question, because I think it's going to be very complicated to do it here actually. So, with this I thank you very much for listening in and good bye.