Operator
Operator
Thank you. (Operator Instructions)
Equinor ASA (EQNR)
Q3 2011 Earnings Call· Sat, Oct 29, 2011
$40.30
+4.73%
Operator
Operator
Thank you. (Operator Instructions)
Hilde Nafstad
Management
So, we’ll start with questions from the audience. I will ask you to please state your name and who you represent, and we will pass microphones around. We have a question from John. John Olaisen – Carnegie: Yes, good afternoon this is John Olaisen from Carnegie. Could you tell us a little bit about when you expect to be able to book the Aldous/Avaldsnes reserves into your official results, please?
Torgrim Reitan
Management
All right. Thank you, John. First of all, resources and reserves are going to be large as we all understand. We are working as hard we can to maturities and develop concepts. We aim for this asset to come into production before 2020. And we have an ambition for 2017 for production. And the booking of reserves is a large chunk done at the point of sanction and then a second chunk at the start of production. So the sanctioning will be between now and 2017. As you understand, I cannot be more exact than that, but this will of course be positively impact the reserve booking. Yes. John Olaisen – Carnegie: My second question is regarding the Brigham acquisition. It’s currently producing about 21,000 barrels and you said it could produce 60,000 to 100,000 barrels within five years, i.e. being 2016. And you also have a quite explicit guidance on production for 2016, does the Brigham acquisition mean anything to your production guidance for ‘16?
Torgrim Reitan
Management
When it comes to production guiding, we have said that we will stick to that. I mean this will have an impact all the way through 2020 as well. So this will make us even more comfortable in the way we have guided the markets. So this will be a positive contribution towards we have – what we have guided to. We were comfortable with the guiding that we gave at the Capital Markets Day. So this will make us even more comfortable on that. John Olaisen – Carnegie: Just to be clear on that, should we add 60,000 to 100,000 barrels on top of your previous guidance, or if not, how should we interpret your guidance? Is it an organic plus potential acquisitions that included in your guidance or how to see this?
Torgrim Reitan
Management
I see this as the guiding going forward, as such, in the 2016 perspective, we are not ready to make any adjustments to that. In 2012, we said this is within the uncertainty of the range we are guiding on. When it comes to 2016, we are not prepared to make any changes. This will be a positive contribution compared to the portfolio today. And if it is relevant to changes, that will be done at a later point in time. John Olaisen – Carnegie: Okay, thank you.
Hilde Nafstad
Management
Any more questions from the audience? Yes. We have one. Helge André Martinsen – Nordea Markets: Helge André Martinsen, Nordea Markets. I was wondering if you could please explain the development of the gas prices from the second quarter into third quarter was dropping. And the second question on the tax rate on the NPR? And the third question would be could you be more precise on what you mean by you got a more flexible production permit to Ormen Lange?
Torgrim Reitan
Management
Okay, thank you. On the tax rate on NPR, I can take that myself. So, Svein, if you can prepare on the development of the gas prices, that would be good. In the NPR, there are several tax regimes involved, mainly it’s offshore and, yes, slightly on the process and transport business, which is in the 78% regime. And then we have activities in the 28% regime. So we have, of course, profit in the 78% regime, and then we have losses in the 28% regime. So when you combine that together, you get strange tax rates on the segment as such. That is the main explanation on that one.
Svein Skeie
Management
On the gas prices, a large part of our gas sales are then linked to contracts with the references to oil prices. So it’s then dependant on the development in the oil prices, especially for fuel oil and gas oil relating to the prices, and then you typically see a six month-lag on it. In addition, we also are selling gas on spot and that will also affect the gas prices as we report in the quarter-by-quarter. So that will be an average blend of those two. Helge André Martinsen – Nordea Markets: Are there any further questions from the audience? Then we will turn to the questions over the phone. Operator, can you please introduce the first question?
Operator
Operator
We will take our first question here from Brendan Warn with Jefferies. Please go ahead. Brendan Warn – Jefferies: Thanks, guys. This is Brendan Warn from Jefferies. Just first question, just two questions, please. Can you give us an update on Shah Deniz Phase 2 and timing and milestones that we’ll be looking for in terms of FID, and I guess just your commitment to the Nabucco project? And then just secondly, can you just remind us of the upcoming high impact wells for the coming three months both Norway and international, and just timing of your well in block 2 Tanzania? And just thirdly just the status of the ratification of your new acreage in Angola, please?
Torgrim Reitan
Management
Okay, thank you. Shah Deniz Phase 2 is an important development to Statoil. The Shah Deniz Phase 2 is expected to produce in total around 16 billion cubic meter per year when that plateau. As you know, there is a lot of things to be clarified before that can be sanctioned and it is especially related to transportation and transit of the gas. There are progress in those discussions. So we are progressing ahead with the work in the partnership, as such. So first of all, this needs to be bid on a concept selection especially on the transport route and then it will move forward toward final sanctions. So we are following that very closely and things are progressing. On Angola and the pre-salt licenses there, those are not finally concluded yet, but they are expected to be closed in not too distant future. Then on the high impact well in Tanzania, Svein can you give an update on that one?
Svein Skeie
Management
In Tanzania the well there, we expect them to spud that around year end, probably in December this year. That’s when we expect to spud that.
Torgrim Reitan
Management
So that is not expected to be concluded in 2011, but in 2012. Brendan Warn – Jefferies: Can you just remind us of some of your high impact wells please that are near term?
Svein Skeie
Management
On the Norwegian continental shelf, I think you should look out from the (indiscernible) that we are now planning to spud in the near future. The (indiscernible), that will also then probably be concluded in 2012. So that will probably be spudded prior, but completed after a year. Brendan Warn – Jefferies: Okay. Thank you, guys.
Hilde Nafstad
Management
Next question, please.
Operator
Operator
We will now take a question from Michael Alsford with Citigroup. Please go ahead. Michael Alsford – Citigroup: Good afternoon, couple of questions if I can. Firstly following the Brigham deal, should we see Statoil potentially looking to add further acreage in either the Bakken or other parts of your unconventional gas portfolio in the U.S.? And secondly just a bit further on East Africa, you’ve got a couple of blocks in Mozambique, you potentially talked a little bit around the plans that you might be undertaking into next year, following I guess recent successes for the ENI and Galp in Anadarko? Thank you.
Torgrim Reitan
Management
All right. Thank you. So I’ll talk to Brigham and, Svein, you can talk on Mozambique and Tanzania. Brigham is a significant step forward for us, with the third large acquisition into unconventional for us. We see unconventional as a very important part of the energy mix going forward. And the next wave is going to be much more technology intense than it has been so far. So that is where we really see the Statoil footprint within this business. So Brigham is giving us an operator role in a key area in the Bakken. When it comes to further acreage, we are looking to optimize the areas we have. In the quarter, we concluded a transaction together with Talisman with SM Energy, small transaction but it sort of will be an active approach to the acreage we have there, and we will continue to do that. So we will move forward on that basis in the U.S. And then East Africa, Svein?
Svein Skeie
Management
Yes, we’ll then with Mozambique where we are now planning then for doing the seismic there. So we are planning then to have a large 3D seismic survey, which we are then planning for in second quarter. And our intention then is following the seismic activity that we will drill a well in the 2013 to 2014 perspective. On Tanzania, that is about the well that we don’t plan to spud, but will be concluded next year as we discussed earlier. Michael Alsford – Citigroup: That’s great. Thank you very much.
Hilde Nafstad
Management
Next question, please.
Operator
Operator
We will now move to Mark Bloomfield with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead. Mark Bloomfield – Deutsche Bank: Good afternoon. May I ask two questions, please? Firstly, a question on your international business and costs, adjusted OpEx and depreciation both stepped up quite sharply this quarter, which was presumably due to Peregrino and Pazflor. Just wondering if you can give us a sense of the run rate going forward, particularly over the next 12 months as those projects continue to ramp up? And second question just turning to the Aldous and Avaldsnes discovery, perhaps you can give us some insight into your appraisal plans over the next 12 months there? Thanks.
Torgrim Reitan
Management
All right. Thank you. On international costs, if you look at the operating expenses and the SG&A on an adjusted basis, it increased to NOK 3.6 billion in the quarter from NOK 2.6 billion. So that was sort of a significant increase. That can be explained by mainly two things. One element is growing production and growing activity. We have a start-up of Leismer and Peregrino and Pazflor this quarter compared to the last quarter, and we are ramping up the Eagle Ford and Leismer activity. And that counts for around half of that increase. The other explanation is related to royalties and production bonuses in various fields across the portfolio and the production from those fields are growing. And the way we deal with royalties and production bonuses is that we book the revenue based on an equity basis, and then in the cost we subtract the royalty and production bonuses as cost in this cost line. And that, in general term, explains the other half of that increase. And then to your very important question about what to expect going forward, I mean, the royalties and production bonuses that will certainly continue as these fields have the intention to continue to produce. And also we expect significant activity and growth internationally going forward as well. So I think that must be the guiding I can give on the international cost level going forward. Then on the plans for Aldous and Avaldsnes, we expect an appraisal well at least spudding of that on the Avaldsnes part this year, and then there will be a further activities on the Aldous part next year as such, so to firm up the volumes and then prepare for selecting development solutions and so on. So these are of course assets that will be prioritized to be worth and they are.
Hilde Nafstad
Management
All right, we’ll move on to the next question.
Operator
Operator
We will now move to Oswald Clint with Sanford Bernstein. Please go ahead. Oswald Clint – Sanford Bernstein: Hi. Good afternoon. Thank you. Just going back to Azerbaijan, actually, could you just give us some insights into what’s happening when you say operational issues at the ACG field and on the shutdowns at Shah Deniz, is there anything there more problematic we should be aware of? And the second question was back on the Brigham acquisition, talked about it having the highest production rates in the Bakken, does seem to be that they also have the highest number of fracs per well in the Bakken, is that something you think you will have to sustain the high level of fracs per well or is that something you think you might be able to decrease?
Torgrim Reitan
Management
All right. Thank you. On Azerbaijan first, so BP operates these fields. Touch upon Azeri-Chirag first, there have been some sand issues in the wells there, that field will be done maintenance on this one later this year. On Shah Deniz, it is more related to well integrity issues and a cautious approach by the operator. I think to get more details on this, I think it’s prudent to discuss that with BP as the operator. But these are significant contributors to Statoil’s production. Then on the Brigham and fracking, yes, they are one of the companies that frac the most, and they have strong experience in that. The way when we work together with them, we will of course very much appreciate their skills and their technology and skill sets related to fracking. I think there is more to be learned and more to be developed about fracking in the right way and fracking efficiently and so on. So we will certainly contribute to that into that asset going forward. Oswald Clint – Sanford Bernstein: That’s great. Thank you very much, Torgrim.
Hilde Nafstad
Management
Next question please.
Operator
Operator
We’ll now move to Hootan Yazhari with Bank of America/Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead. Hootan Yazhari – Bank of America/Merrill Lynch: Hi there. Two questions please, first and foremost, the very big discoveries that you’ve made in Norway, obviously, there is a consideration here to be made with the sort of resources available to you. Are you now looking to reconfigure your portfolio and optimize it such that you dedicate more resource to Aldous and Avaldsnes? And in that context, would you be more amenable to divesting assets in Norway? And the second question really revolves around if you give us some more color on the Logan discovery and any sort of further guidance you can give on your drilling program in the Gulf of Mexico for the next few months? Thank you.
Torgrim Reitan
Management
All right. Thank you. Aldous/Avaldsnes, it’s large, it’s going to take a lot resources, of course, to develop, and it will have priority. But that is said, we have quite large capacity, we have actually more than 100 projects in the pipeline currently and have a lot of capacity in hand. We will need to prioritize, we will need to prioritize even without Aldous and Avaldsnes. So I mean bringing both that one and Skrugard online will mean that some other assets needs to wait a little bit more. But on the net, it is of course very, very positive. On your point on divesting assets in Norway, let me just put it into perspective. If you look at Statoil over the last years, we have had a quite active approach to our portfolio. We have sold out of our shipping activities or petrochemical activities, we have IPO, the fuel and retail business, we are recently selling our transportation system on the Norwegian continent shelf, and we have done adjustments to some of the big international assets as well. And going forward, we will continue with an active portfolio management. And I think that has proved quite well, and looking at Statoil as a very upstream critical company, we are actually currently what many other companies would like to be as I see it. We will continue with portfolio management and nothing in our portfolio is sort of more sacred than anything else. So that’s a general comment on that. I will not of course speculate on neither this or that. But in general, we have an active portfolio approach to all of the assets in the company. When it comes to the Logan discovery, I think it’s important not to take that out of proportions in any ways. We have encountered hydrocarbons, which is good. More work needs to be done on this well to see how much is in place, the recovery rates and whether it is commercial or not. So let’s not overstate that currently. I can say this is not Aldous and Avaldsnes all over again, I can tell you that.
Svein Skeie
Management
So, that’s on the Logan.
Hilde Nafstad
Management
Next question? Hootan Yazhari – Bank of America/Merrill Lynch: And comments on further exploration activity in the Gulf of Mexico in the near term?
Torgrim Reitan
Management
Yes. Yes. Let me see, we have Bioko and Kilchurn. The first up is Bioko as far as I recall.
Svein Skeie
Management
Yes.
Torgrim Reitan
Management
And when is that going to be spudded, Svein.
Svein Skeie
Management
It will probably be spudded over next year.
Torgrim Reitan
Management
Okay. Hootan Yazhari – Bank of America/Merrill Lynch: Okay, wonderful. Thank you very much.
Hilde Nafstad
Management
Next question please.
Operator
Operator
We will now move to Nitin Sharma with JPMorgan. Please go ahead. Nitin Sharma – JPMorgan: Hi, afternoon, two questions please. The first one, more an extension of earlier questions on the subject, you explained briefly the build-up in U.S. unconventional space, three transactions. My question is what are the next steps? Are acquisitions a near-term agenda? And if so, could you please give it a little bit more of color in terms of size, what sort of comfort range in terms of your balance sheet would be if you were to go in for a deal? And I’m fully aware that post Brigham, you’re still very comfortable at 17%, 18% gearing, so just a little bit more color on that front. And second, could you please explain the very high tax rate in (MMR) please? That’s one bit that I could not grasp looking at your release this morning. Thank you.
Torgrim Reitan
Management
All right. Okay. I tried one explanation earlier, so I will give that chance to Kåre to explain it better this time on the tax rate on NPR. On unconventional and acquisitions going forward, we have an active look on a lot of things around the globe, also within unconventional and Brigham is an example of that. Going forward, I cannot neither confirm or exclude whether that is part of the route going forward, but it is important for us to be well placed in an early stage in new place within unconventional to put the Statoil footprint in place earlier and see to that we are able to create value on anything that we do. On comfort range and balance sheet and all of that, we are running now with a net debt of 13.6% and expect that to come down to 10%, and then when the Brigham transaction is closed, it will increase by 6, 7 percentage points. We have significant cash at hand and so on. I’ll just share some thoughts about how we are thinking. To us, it is very important to run with a solid balance sheet and with significant liquidity, and I’ve touched upon that several times during the year. First of all, running a company like Statoil, a big oil and gas company, you need to do that with a big balance sheet. You also need to have significantly liquidity especially in uncertain times and I mean the current market and outlook is unresolved, so we will continue with that. So we have a very cautious approach to the gearing of the company going forward. And that said, a good oil and gas company needs to be able to take long-term decisions also in troubled time and not to be impacted by short-term…
Torgrim Reitan
Management
I think it’s just to add on that, I mean when Gassled is going out of the portfolio, I mean there will be even more fluctuations in both earnings and the tax rate on this asset -- on this segment. Nitin Sharma – JPMorgan: Thank you.
Hilde Nafstad
Management
Next question please.
Operator
Operator
We will now move to Teodor Nilsen with First Securities. Please go ahead. Teodor Nilsen – First Securities: Hey, good afternoon. My first question is related to the average realized liquid prices, it seems like the discount to the average spread during the quarter was slightly higher than normal. So my question is, is that only related to weak NGL prices? My second question is related to Brigham deal. What thoughts do you have around your ownership in Brigham and Bakken assets going forward? Thank you.
Torgrim Reitan
Management
All right, could you please repeat the last question, I didn’t get that. Teodor Nilsen – First Securities: It’s related to Brigham and your thoughts around the owner share in Brigham going forward?
Torgrim Reitan
Management
Okay. All right, on the realized liquid prices, you’re right, it’s very much to do with NGL prices. On Brigham and owner share, I’m not sure I really understood the question, but we will issue a tender offer to the Brigham investors during October, then there will be a 20-working day time period for them to accept it. If more than 90% of investor accept it, then it’s sort of automatically we issue -- then we have the right to buy the rest of the shares. If it is between 50% and 90%, then there are other mechanisms that come into plays. So that is the process going forward. When the transaction is closed, this will be integrated into the Statoil organization and the ownership structure will be an internal Statoil ownership structure. These assets will be run very much by the existing Brigham management and we will see to that. We are able to continue with capturing the way they run the business and then the way they are operating, and then combining it with the strong thing that Statoil can contribute, technology, there will be some system and processes going forward.
Hilde Nafstad
Management
Can we have the next question, please?
Operator
Operator
We will now move to Dominique Patry with Cheuvreux. Please go ahead. Dominique Patry – Cheuvreux: Yes, good afternoon. I have a question regarding your gas price optimization strategy. Just in order to better quantify the impact it could have on you production, could you maybe help us assess the impact it had on your nine-month production compared to what you were maybe originally expecting?
Torgrim Reitan
Management
Yes. So the gas optimization is, as I told you, that will reduce production and then sell it into later periods with higher prices. So far this year, we have gone back over -- in the summer months where we have that opportunity. And you asked about the typical impact related to that. It is in the range 10,000 barrels to 15,000 barrels per day typically. That is what we’re talking about in that respect. However, we are continuing with that into the fourth quarter, as I said. Dominique Patry – Cheuvreux: Okay. Thank you very much. And with regard to the negotiation that you have with some of your customers with regard to long-term contract, could you maybe elaborate a bit more about sometimes the flexibility they are asking in terms of spot price indexation versus oil indexation?
Torgrim Reitan
Management
Okay, thank you. On the long-term gas contracts, there are of course discussions with the customers. In general terms, our customers create noises every time when the spot price is below the long-term gas price. So that is as expected. The gap within the spot price and the long-term gas price, that has narrowed over the last couple of years, so the issue is less than it used to be. In general terms, in the long-term contract, there are renegotiation mechanisms that occur on the regular intervals. So in 2012, around 50% of the volumes in the long-term contracts are sort of up for renegotiations. So we have dialogues with our customers in that respect. There is some spot indexation into those contracts already. And that is sort of working well. When discussing the long-term contract, we typically discuss a lot of things at the same time; indexation, flexibility and security of delivery and all of that. So it’s quite a complex picture. We consider ourselves to be well positioned in the European gas markets. We are close to the market. Our gas have to travel one-fifth of Algerian gas, one-eighth of Russian gas and one-tenth of Qatari gas, and we have all pre-invested in infrastructure and so on, so we are ready to act in the market. And we are building up our own end-user business in parallel to the long-term contracts and acting directly with the power producers and (indiscernible) and so on. So we see a healthy development in the gas markets in Europe actually. And we see that especially into the power segments. The long-term contracts, we see them as an important part of our portfolio and they’re here to stay, but they will be part of our gas sales portfolio going forward. Dominique Patry – Cheuvreux: Okay. Thank you very much. If I may, one final question from my side. On the Marcellus ramp up, if I recall correctly, you were a little bit constrained by pipeline permitting issues, has it been cleared with regard to your former production guidance for 2012 out of the Marcellus?
Torgrim Reitan
Management
Excuse me, do you have a chance to repeat that question, please? Dominique Patry – Cheuvreux: Yes. Sorry. As far as I understood, you had some restriction in terms of pipeline permitting for the ramp-up of the production from the Marcellus, so just wanted to be updated on this front?
Torgrim Reitan
Management
Yes, all right. Okay, thank you. Yes. That’s a very insightful question like all the others were today, I can certainly say that. But on the Marcellus, we have a lot of wells waiting for transportation capacity that are prepared. There have been some delays in the permitting, especially to the gathering systems in that area. There have been bottlenecks in the organization that makes those approvals. Those are now moving better and the time from an application to an approval has been reduced quite a bit, so that is progressing. But you’re right we have a lot of wells ready for gathering systems. So this is moving forward and that is good. Dominique Patry – Cheuvreux: Thank you very much.
Hilde Nafstad
Management
Okay, we will move on to the next question, which will have to be the last in the interest of time. Next question please.
Operator
Operator
We will now move to Matt Lofting with Nomura. Please go ahead. Matt Lofting – Nomura: Thanks. Good afternoon. I just had two quick questions please. Firstly, could you just elaborate a little bit on the unchanged production guidance for 2012, does that guidance now implicitly include or exclude any volumes for next year from the Brigham acquisition? And within that, how is the sort of delays around, Skarv impacted your confidence on hitting those targets? Secondly, I think on the refining side, there was an impairment on Mongstad, could you elaborate a little bit around sort of the comment in the presentation earlier that a further review would be carried out of that business. What are the potential options there going forward? Thanks.
Torgrim Reitan
Management
All right. Thank you. Yes. So in 2012, we expect to increase production by an average of 3% per year from 2010 to 2012. We deliberately say around 3 percentage point growth, and that is to give you a range, implicitly a range, and a positive element into that is the Brigham acquisition. It is sort of within the uncertainty that we have in our production end year. Skarv is contributing negatively to the same picture in 2012. So this is sort of within the accuracy that we want to give guidance on. On the refining on Mongstad, first of all, Mongstad is a very important refinery to Statoil. It is very much interlinked with the upstream business and it creates significant value for the value chain. So it is an important asset to Statoil. When that is said, running onshore industry in Norway is not the easiest thing. You can talk to aluminum producers or other producers, there are actually hard to get good profitability. When it comes to these assets, the reason we have written it down is due to the outlook that we see for the refining industry in Europe, and there’s a lot of other companies that are struggling with their refinery business as well. We have put in place a significant improvement program that we are on the way to deliver. We need to have a closer look at that and continue to look for improvements to improve that business. And this is an asset with Norwegian cost structure onshore in Norway and we want to be as competitive or we want to be competitive onshore as we are very competitive offshore as well. There are, of course things, that we don’t control like the framework conditions for onshore industry and there have been made changes to the tax depreciation rules on these assets. That is nothing that we have control over, but we will encourage the politicians to look into that, to see to that onshore industry can live profitably and well also in Norway. But we are continuing to work with improvements on Mongstad going forward, but it is a very important asset to us.
Hilde Nafstad
Management
I see that we now only have one last question in queue. We will make time for that as well. Last question, please.
Operator
Operator
So, we’ll now take a question from (indiscernible) with Insight Investment. Thank you.
Unidentified Analyst
Analyst
Hi, there. It’s (indiscernible). What I wanted to ask is in regards to your unconventional tight oil and tight gas purchases you’ve done in the past in this development, where does your preference lie going forward? Do you want another one to grow more in tight oil, more on tight gas? And secondly, so far, you’ve pretty much financed those acquisitions through divestments, and I think the rating agency quite clearly said, if you continue on a growth path on acquisitions, they actually might go after your credit rating and could you please comment on that?
Torgrim Reitan
Management
Okay, thank you. On unconventional, we are placed in three areas, which we find very attractive. So we will grow all of those three areas. So, there are no sort of specific preferences. I mean the Bakken play is of course a very interesting new addition and its tight oil. So that is of course an area of importance going forward. Divestments have taken place and portfolio management will be a natural part of what to do going forward as well. On the balance sheet that we have and the liquidity we have at hand, there is of course significant, I mean, comfort in that going forward as well. Further acquisitions, I will not comment on whether or not we are looking into that, but in general, we look at a lot of things. Credit rating agencies, we have a close cooperation with them as well. So we have currently AA- rating with S&P and that’s where we are. So we are of course looking carefully after how this develops in going forward. It’s a comfortable rating as such and in these times, it’s good to have a rating like that.
Unidentified Analyst
Analyst
Okay, thank you.