Ladies and gentlemen, if I can ask people to take their seats, so that we can get proceedings underway. Thank you very much. Okay. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Equinor Capital Markets Day. It's a real pleasure to see you all here today and also to connect to those who - of you who are dialing in on the phone. For those of you here, I would like to start with a brief, but important safety announcement. If the building needs to be evacuated, the fire alarm will sound. On hearing the alarm, security and support staff will be on hand to direct you to the nearest emergency exit and assembly point. The assembly point is in [indiscernible] close, which is next to the Apex London Wall Hotel, just across the side of this venue. We - I think it's right to say, there are no planned fire alarms today. So if you hear anything, please follow those instructions. After the presentations, we will have the normal question-and-answer session in the hall, but also on the phone, not only with those presenting, but also other members of the Executive Committee who are joining us here today. And there'll be an opportunity for everybody to meet at the venue afterwards over lunch and drink. So with that, let me ask Eldar Sætre, our CEO to take the words. Eldar Sætre: So thank you, Peter, and good morning, it's almost good afternoon to all of you. It's really great to see you here. So this is the fifth time I have the pleasure of welcoming you to our regular capital markets update here in London. But it is definitely the first time I do so as the CEO of Equinor. So for us 2018 was definitely a year of change, you…

Thank you, Eldar, and good to see you all. It's exciting times on the NCS. After 50 years still going strong and the best is yet to come. NCS will grow and deliver significant value for many years and we have some of the largest and most profitable oil and gas projects in the world. The last year's improvements, our unique infrastructure, technological development and improved efficiency create a very attractive and valuable opportunity set on the NCS. We are seeing strong volume growth, taking us to a historical high production in 2025. Who would have believed that just a few years ago? We already operate with a very competitive unit production cost, and we will continue to improve maintaining a strong cost discipline going forward. Over the next three years, we will generate a substantial net cash flow of around $15 billion after tax, and to put it simply, our future on the NCS is valuable growth. You heard Eldar talk about Johan Sverdrup with its significant production and low breakeven. In addition to Sverdrup, several attractive projects will come on stream over the next years. Martin Linge, Troll Phase 3, Snøhvit expansion, Johan Castberg, just to name a few. We have a strong non-sanctioned project portfolio, a large set of exploration opportunities, and a great potential from legacy assets. Our portfolio of non-sanctioned projects currently has a breakeven of around $30 per barrel and this portfolio is expected to deliver 1.8 billion barrels of oil equivalence for Equinor. But still, early phase, we constantly look for further improvements as these projects are matured in collaboration with our partners and suppliers. We are continuously adding high-value barrels from existing low-cost infrastructure through increased oil and gas recovery from our producing fields. As we presented last year, we have a…

So thank you, Arne Sigve, and good afternoon. It's very good to see you again. Today I find myself between two great leaders. Arne Sigve and Margareth that has truly shaped our company. And you know that fits very well with what I'm going to talk about today. And that is about how we're going to apply the best of Equinor internationally. So I will cover three topics. So first, international business has become a true cash generator. Secondly, our share of operator production is going to double, and that will enable us to apply the best of Equinor more broadly. And finally, international will grow with quality as cash margins increase further. So let's start with cash. So I'm very proud of our people and how they have changed our business. Last year, we had a cash margin of $30 per barrel and that is a significant improvement. But we can achieve even more. And we expect to increase the cash margin by another 20% by 2025 in a $70 environment. Higher margin barrels will come on stream, and a higher share of production with a low cash tax rate. For many years our international business needed funding. But last year, we delivered $2.9 billion in net cash flow. And we will generate even more cash, approximately $10 billion over the next three years in a $70 environment. But you know, we can't rely on $70, our business has to work at $50 and in fact from now on, we aim to be net cash flow positive below $45 per barrel in DPI. So let me turn to our U.S. business. Three years ago, we promised a lot for 2018, and we called it from $90 to $50. And you will remember that we needed more than $90 to…

Thank you, Margareth. Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon. It's really great to see you all. This is my first Capital Markets update as CFO. And in my first six months, priority number one has been to sustain the cost and efficiency improvements and further improve across the whole organization. In a more uncertain world with high volatility, improving our competitiveness is even more important to stay attractive. 2018 was another strong year for Equinor. We delivered strong results, further reduced the breakeven through our projects, announced value enhancing transactions, stepped up our cash dividend and strengthened our balance sheet. And as you have heard from my colleagues, we have a lot of exciting opportunities ahead of us, all building on our industrial strength, and all with the aim of creating value. Let me start with the fourth quarter 2018 results. As we have seen, we delivered adjusted earnings of $4.4 billion in the fourth quarter, an increase of 11% from 2017. Gas prices in Europe and especially in the U.S. were higher than 2017. And on average, we also realized somewhat higher liquid prices. But during the quarter, we expected the steepest fall in the oil prices since 2014. In early October, Brent was traded around $85 a barrel and ended the year below $55. Due to sales pricing mechanisms in the market, where prices are set five days after the actual transaction, the significant drop in the prices led to a one-off effect with a higher than normal differential between realized liquid prices and Brent. This impacted our adjusted earnings from exploration and production Norway, who delivered $3.2 billion up from $3 billion last year. Underlying OpEx and SG&A was as expected, slightly higher than last year, mainly due to asset removal cost on gas led and pre-operating costs…

Thank you very much, ladies and gentlemen. And we've got up to 45 minutes for questions and answers in the formal session. Not just from in here, but also on the phones as well, what we try to do is to circulate some mics here first and then we'll do a batch from the phones. I always ask if we can keep the questions relatively short and one each, I never entirely succeed. And so there'll be one and a follow up, which preferably is on the same kind of question as you've just answered. So with that one, can I ask for questions here. We've got everybody who has made presentations, but as I said, we've also got the other members of the corporate executive committee here as well. So feel free. And the first question I saw was from Lydia.

It's Lydia Rainforth from Barclays here. Two questions linked to cash flow. The first one is if I look at the free cash flow into the $14 billion, it's post dividend. What dividend growth rate do you have in there for the '19, '20, '21 if I think about that three year plan? And then the second one links partly to the free cash flow side around the standardization and cost savings digitalization plan, how much cash benefit have you put in the cash flow numbers for that? Eldar Sætre: Okay. So when it comes to the dividend part on the assumptions, I think what I can do is to refer to the dividend policy. It's a boring answer. So I won't give you a percentage, and in fact I don't know, that could be an assumption but the basic thing is that our ambition is to grow. That's firmly stated in the dividend policy. That's also explained very much why we ended at $0.26 at the starting point where we can actually grow from. But exactly how this is going to look like going forward is yet to be seen. But there is growth in the dividend, but I can't give you a more precise number on that. The other question for you.

On digitalization and the impact of it. We have a sort of a big program internally of aggregating all the improvement initiatives, impressed by still all the ideas that are coming up in the organization. And whether it's digitalization or lean or whatever it is, this adds up and it is just included in the numbers that are being provided. On digitalization specifically, we said last year, more than $2 billion in contribution in increased value. And we see that we are starting to close that kind of gap towards that ambition. Yes, Jon?

It's Jon Rigby from UBS. Can - you indicated or - and used a fairly compelling chart where you showed that you sell assets in high oil prices and buy in low. But you could also probably put a line of your organic CapEx on there as well. So you tend to be more inorganically active when your organic CapEx is low. And so it looks to me that you do, and not to say that this is not the appropriate thing to do, is you do use the market to supplement your longer-term positioning with inorganic purchases. So as we look out through to 2025, you've given guidance on organics spend, '21. Could we also assume that to be building and preparing for the longer term that a chunk of cash, maybe sort of net $1 billion to $2 billion that you've been spending over the last cycle is likely to be spent again on inorganic opportunities? I think you've already referenced, for instance transfer of rights and surplus volumes, et cetera. And then maybe if I ask my second at the same time because it does link, so tick that box. I think there was some reports in the newspapers that you had expressed an interest in entering Qatar, for instance. And I think one of the gaps in your portfolio globally seems to mean there's been a material LNG footprint which is kind of curious given your position in European gas. So I just wondered, whether, a, that was true, and b, whether that does represent one of the sort of the strategic spaces that you might want to expand into over time? Eldar Sætre: So oil and gas is, you produce a certain amount of barrels every year. And just to stay in that game and…

Okay, I've got Oswald?

Peter, yes, two specific topics for me, please. First is Roncador. The kind of update from Margaret is pretty staggering, I think, an extra 5% recovery factor from that field within last 12 months. So but I guess in your due diligence, you spent $2.5 billion to get that asset, you must have thought about better drainage and a much better infield program and that 5% price. So 12 months later to have another 5%, I think is pretty impressive. So maybe just flesh that out a little bit more. Was that something you thought was also possible? Did it surprise you the last 12 months? Could we stand here this time next year and see that 40% realization being discussed more concretely and kind of even higher? So I think it's a big number. And then secondly, to Rosebank, so and obviously Roncador shows the importance of Statoil's capability. But Eldar, going back to your initial comments about not repeating the kind of sins of the past and having strength and time and discipline to make good acquisitions. I want to go back to Rosebank because yes, you did some good M&A, getting out of it, getting back into it and that. You talked about Johan Castberg, $80 to $35 breakeven, but it feels like Rosebank potentially too complex, too difficult. I mean this is a challenging discovery, west of Shetland. Chevron looked at it quite a lot. There's a lot of volcanics around it. Is this maybe a little bit too difficult or are you starting to chew up a little bit too much? Eldar Sætre: Okay. And maybe Margaret can talk, but what I can say, when we did that transaction basically the price we paid was based on as is. So we obviously saw that we…

Yes, of course we looked at this project and it's similar to both Bay du Nord and the Carsberg, it's harsh environment. When we looked at the reservoir, we looked at the capacity on the Rosebank, we saw there is potential for improvements. So basically, we looked through all the value chain and see that if we worked similar what we had done on the Carsberg field, we are able to bring down the breakeven, as Eldar alluded to.

Next question is from Biraj in the center.

It's Biraj Borkhataria, RBC. So I have a question on CapEx. You've got into quite a good habit of putting in a number there at the start of the year and then coming in lower and lower and lower as you move through the year. But obviously, I'm not expecting you to do that in February. But thinking about it alongside the production growth, so your production is growing by 3% per annum and you want to manage within a flat CapEx framework. That seems to be quite challenging over time. So do - I guess the question is do you think you have sufficient momentum on the efficiency side and reducing the capital intensity further from here, such that CapEx can stay flat over time, over the medium term? Or should we think of a they're being us upside pressure to that number over time? Eldar Sætre: So I think we go back to last year, we guided at $11 billion for this year, this range, this year including 2020 as $11 billion. That's where we were still are. So we are on the same level as was. Then it happened that last year came out $1 billion lower. The efficiency we see that we still managed to take down costs within our overall project portfolio is getting tougher and tougher, and - but we have done so. And that is savings. It's not something that we have deferred into this year. So you don't see that $1 billion on top of sort of the $11 billion that we have talked about last year for this year. So I think that is important. It's basically same level, and there is a high level of transparency of this. And then longer term, we can't be precise beyond 2021 because we…

One comment, I mean we have contracts of a value at $100 billion already agreed to, so in many ways we are covered over the next couple of years broadly speaking. And whatever beyond is too early to judge.

Okay. We've got a few questions to get through. So I'm going to do a batch of a couple of people on this side, then I'm going to take some questions from the phone, then we're going to do a batch over this side. So Alwyn first and then Thomas. So Alwyn is in the middle here? Hopefully.

Alwyn Thomas here from Exane BNP Paribas. Just a quick one for me on the U.S. business. Given some of the volatility in WTI spreads, I just wanted to know looking, before you talked about the $45 potential breakeven. Do you think you still have to go further than that in the sort of near and midterm as well as trying to drive volume with that? How do you think about that in the next sort of 3 to 5 year period? Eldar Sætre: Okay, this is a perfect question for Torgrim.

Yes, all right, thank you very much. Yes, you are right, I mean the WTI and the spread and the discount in North Dakota has fluctuated a lot. It was up to $20 at one point in time and now it's sort of coming back down again. So despite that, we have been able to make money out of that business with those discounts. And on top of that, Irene and her business is taking oil and bringing it to the Atlantic to get Brent prices for it. So this is a significant uplift in the value chain, actually. But clearly, we are monitoring the situation very closely and taking capacity where needed to be able to achieve a higher price than the local price.

And then if I can pass over to Thomas over here.

Thomas Adolff from Crédit Suisse. First question is on benchmarking, I think Torgrim mentioned the word benchmarking. And presumably you benchmark against peers inside the industry, but also outside of the industry. And when we think about offshore versus onshore, offshore you're presumably Tier 1 already inside of the industry. What are the key takeaways from outside of the industry that you can incorporate into operations offshore? And then onshore, you've done an amazing job bringing down the breakeven, but understand if I'm - correct me if I'm mistaken, that you operate the business differently, the independents in the U.S. a little less kind of independent, if you will, it's more kind of the corporate organization. Is that the right way forward? Or can you really adopt the a more efficient approach that the independents in the U.S. adopt? And then the second question I guess is just on new energies. There's always a big debate around returns in new energies. But for example, if we were to electrify all your offshore operations on the NCS with wind, what does that mean in terms of value created from additional gas sales volume? Eldar Sætre: You talk about all the offshore. Okay. So I think when it comes to the U.S. onshore, Torgrim will prepare his answer on that. So we do learn from outside industry? We do that, typically the industry is a family, it's always easier to benchmark with each other and we do a lot of that. And basically the concept that we have developed through the downturn is very much based on what we actually learned from the U.S. onshore, very extensively benchmarked into - from industrial like activity. And you can pick up what is the best, what is the perfect, what is the perfect well,…

Yes, thank you very much, Eldar. When it comes to electrification, there are a few prerequisites that we have to have put in place. First we look at the abatement costs, what is the cost of the project compared to CO2 tax and quotas. So that is one. The next one is really and obviously, if you can do it, you can sell the gas to the market. But we do not have a figure for all the assets on the NCS, what it will mean when it comes to electrification, because as Eldar says, it's not practically possible due to the grid systems. So we are looking at what we can electrify based on the available grid system and also looking at the abatement costs. So if that adds up, and we will have profitable projects, we will do it. And as Eldar says, when it comes to Hywind pump, that is a new opportunity that we're looking at and quite exciting that we will explore further as I said in my speech. Eldar Sætre: Then our business model for the U.S. onshore. It's a strong business model, so well thought through Torgrim, explain why.

Thank you very much. Yes, so I mean the business is currently working well, delivered earnings and a good surplus cash flow in the current environment and improvement has happened, but we still have a lot to do. I mean we still have to learn from others, and we see that we can actually do the things that better than we do today. Then we have taken a more long-term approach to our business, not optimizing initial production rate, but much more focused on recovery rates and technology application. So Anders, he has an R&D team sitting in Austin, working closely together with them and then in the marketing and trading organization is also deeply involved in that business. So the business model is partly separate from the rest of the company, but trying to capitalize on the bigger system to find that balance. So that has worked okay so far. What we see now is that the next level will take more technology. And if we are going to apply the best of Equinor, we need to bring that U.S. onshore activities even closer to the rest of the company. And it goes around digitalization of operations comments, it's around subsurface technology applications and even closely linked to marketing of the assets. So if we are trending any way, it's actually to bring it closer to the rest of the company than it has been.

Now I know we've got at least four people waiting patiently, but we've got at least seven people waiting even more patiently on the phone. So we're going to take a break from the room and take some questions from the phone. And we've got a lot to go through. So I think if I can ask everybody if we keep questions and answers relatively smooth and efficient.

We'll take the next question from Anne Gjoen from Handlesbanken. Anne Gjøen: If you took at your guided production now, it's until 2025, 3%, so it's a rather long way out. Previously it was until 2020, 3% to 4%. So I assume it's still the strongest growth in 2020. But if you look at a bit longer out after 2025, I understand that you believe in peak oil demand within some years, but will you gradually position Equinor for growth and renewables and probably before that in natural gas? But are you still positioning also for oil production growth all until 2025 or even longer? Eldar Sætre: So short answer. I'll take that challenge. So when it comes to the 3%, we say that's an average over these six years. So we can't be precise, but obviously, '20 would be a good year with Carsberg coming into play. And Phase 2 and Carsberg in 2022 as well. So obviously, there is an energy transition going on and at some point, global oil demand will come down, start coming down. And we say that's a good thing. But we do need alternative to oil to make that happen, otherwise the demand would be there and it will just go on. So this transition is really about developing alternatives that can compete and outcompete oil and energy mix and before that, hopefully coal. So that is really what this is about. It's not about stopping to produce because that doesn't help because there are a lot of hydrocarbons out there which has a higher carbon footprint than what we can produce in our portfolio. So I don't - I can't say exactly how long we will continue to grow our oil production but the oil is still increasing its demand. And as long as we can do that with the lowest carbon footprint there is, actually highly competitive, and I think carbon that would, because the regulations associated to that increasingly is going to be competitive advantage, and I think it is really important that the world is served by carbon efficient barrels than less efficient barrels as long as we need that. And then it's a transition that is going on and the shape and form is yet to be seen, but we will be part of that, we will follow this closely and in the meantime, we will continue to grow our numerous business, our low carbon business, so we need to have two thoughts, at least, in our head at the same time. So we're very conscious about this. We've integrated the strategy. But I can't give a precise answer to your question, but it is strategically important question down the road.

We'll now take our next question from Anders Holte from Kepler Cheuvreux.

Now it's regarding Carcara. You previously talked about it as a new [indiscernible] group and now have listed the deal on Phase 1 which was in 20,000 barrels per day of course oil production. Now my question is more towards how many phases do you actually see at Carcara? And given that you have previously talked about this as the new on site, should we expect to see a Phase 2 and potentially a Phase 3 down the line? And also on the Carcara fields, I understand you drilled an appraisal well towards the end of 2018. I'm just wondering the results of that, will that contribute in terms of recoverable resources? Eldar Sætre: So the girl from Ipanema please? Margareth Øvrum: Ipanema, yes. Carcara, we believe, at least we will have two phases for Carcara. The resource potential we have as the same we had the last year to 2 billion barrels oil equivalent. And what we have been doing the last year is really to take a lot of very prudent decisions on - because the drivers for the presold, the drivers for the profitability is really high capacity and this is early, early production. So now we have decided this standard [indiscernible] we are going to inject gas. We are not - we do not need to wait for the gas value chain to happen. And we have a very high capacity, 220,000 barrels per day. So and that appraisal, we are not - I don't think we are really leaving anything on the wells at the moment, but if you listen to what I said, we had a very high or world-class productivity on the well we have been doing in the North area. And we are looking now on two different phases. And it's the first phase, of course, we have chosen or we will have a standard FPSO. Was it anything more than that? Eldar Sætre: No. Margareth Øvrum: Was it good? Okay, yes. Thank you. Eldar Sætre: I have to say that every time to keep her happy.

Thank you, Margaret. Next question from the phone.

We'll now take our next question from Teodor Nilsen from Swedbank.

There has been a lot of discussion around both Brazil and the U.S. today. So two very specific questions on those areas. First one is how much do you plan to spend in Brazil over the next few years? You previously indicated that you will spend $50 billion until 2030. A second question for U.S., I guess that's for Togrim, how much of the fourth quarter adjusted EBIT comes from the U.S. activities? Eldar Sætre: So we have some trouble actually hearing the question, but maybe you did Margareth, on the first one. Margareth Øvrum: Yes, I think we haven't done any changes to that one. We have said for both 15 billion wells - or $15 billion after 2030, that's our plan. Eldar Sætre: And I must admit the second question I didn't...

I think the second question was how much of the 4Q EBIT comes from the U.S.? I think that was the question. If that was the question, we can't give that answer, I'm afraid.

But it's a significant part. Eldar Sætre: I don't - think we just have to - so basically we still report on these segments in the international and the NCS and that's, I think that is how we report and need to look at it.

Thank you for those questions, next from the phone.

We'll now take our next question from Christyan Malek from JP Morgan.

Two if I may. The first on portfolio evolution or revolution. You've got plenty of opportunities both in Brazil and Norway and some fantastic grounds to develop. So just going back on a question Biraj asked, is $11 billion the right normalized level of spend in the medium term? And if so, is it fair to say that you will allocate the excess free cash flow towards M&A? It certainly feels like that, as opposed to returning it back to shareholders through a buyback, for example. Second question is I want to come back to the framework which you model the evolution of project breakevens and feel you have great targets you're aspiring to and lowering and continuing to do a great job on that. But given the volatile orbit job on what appears to be a continuous improvement in lowering the marginal cost of oil, which clearly is somewhat bearish oil itself. But I'm fairly confused as to how you frame the $70 oil price deck against your benchmarking to achieve a 25% return. So can you just walk me through the logic around or sort of the basis to your assumptions around your oil price and the framework that you use to model breakeven? Eldar Sætre: So on the cash and the $11 billion and we indicated $14 billion in the organic cash flow, which includes the inorganic stuff we have done prior to this going into this year. So that is obviously cash available. It includes before that - the organic investment program of $11 billion, which is a high-quality program. So that is really important and it's our highest priority. Then we are committed, I didn't give a number on dividend, but we are committed to actually grow the dividend in underlying earnings, that is included.…

I think when you want an answer and look at what you're doing you need to go back and see what we experienced during the downturn. And the strength of the resource base today means that we do not have to buy barrels. Eventually we will but we have the time to choose and go for the best of. And the strength of the balance sheet means that we don't have to sell. So we can choose the timing of this and match it according to what we feel is - we feel are good deals, and that is important. And then the $50 breakeven cash flow positive below $50, that is important number. It's more important in many ways than what we do at $70. But we calculate on $70 because we have done it a couple of times and we would like to show the consistency over time. So we see how we develop and how we strengthen as we go forward. So that's the $70 and why we use that. But internally, we use different numbers for hurdle rates and follow the $50 breakeven positive and see that, how that develops forward. Eldar Sætre: So just I may add a couple of points. So when it comes to the assumptions that we make for accounting purposes and also for an internal optimization of projects and activities, that is the planning assumptions and they're actually heading towards $75 in 2025. And there is no change to that, it's been like that for a couple of years now. Now to be comparable, as you say, $70, just a number, it's not something we believe or don't believe in, it's just a number to - so that you could have a reference point. $50 is not a criteria for us, but it's a good illustration what we have achieved in terms of resilience. It's portfolio thing and there might be projects that we might be above or beyond or below, but at the portfolio, it's a very good starting point, a good place to be. And we would like to focus on resilience going forward and not whatever we believe at any point might be the oil price. That doesn't take us to a good place because I don't know.

Sure, but just a follow-up - no, just a quick follow-up, in your M&A assumptions on...

Now [indiscernible] Christyan, thank you. Sorry, I'll follow up with you later, we had the two questions. We need to get onto other people. I'm really sorry about that one. Can we have the next question on the phone?

The next question comes from Halvor Nygard from SEB.

My questions have already been answered. So thank you.

We'll now take our next question from John Olaisen from ABG.

May I have an indication of when we should expect PDOs for the fully deployed main international projects, being Bay du Nord, North Platte, Carcara and maybe Rosebank as well, please? Eldar Sætre: I think there is an indication on your slide. You want to comment on that, Lars Christian?

Yes, the start of Carcara is '23 and '24 and PDO, Margareth? Margareth Øvrum: PDO 2020.

PDO 2020. Rosebank, haven't said anything about because we are, as I said, asking for some extensions so that we can really work the concept to bring it forward as the best possible project. North Platte, Torgrim?

North Platte, we have said we will have started in 2022, 2023 area, but that's Total that should respond to that, as we're just an operator.

And Bay Du Nord, we will do the DG2 in end of this year and the DG4 around '25.

We'll now take our next question from Trond Omdal from Fearnley Securities.

Congratulations on record generation on debt reduction and also partly reflected in your higher dividends. The question has been asked before but I'll try in another way. Back in 2006, your total dividends including special dividends was a NEK 9.5 - more than NEK 9 and you also had a buyback program. Is - and in 2014, you paid out when you were transitioned to quarterly dividends, NEK 10.6. Is there any learnings, any - you can share on the thought process of why you're not distributing more? Is there any thesis that you will have to go below 20%? Or is it also a reflection of the recent macro uncertainty that you want to keep the capital flexibility? Second question, since the other has been partly been answered. On - I noticed that Nnwa-Doro popped up again, that's been in your portfolio since the 1990s. Is there any new developments there? And do you see that moving forward to the FID maybe ahead of Tanzania? Eldar Sætre: Are you prepared for the Nnwa-Doro, Togrim, or - yes. So it's been a long time with us, so. So on the dividend, I realize people would like to have predictability so that's why we focus on the cash dividend because that is really a predictable thing that you can relay to your spreadsheet or whatever, because we have a clear policy statement from that starting point. So I think that's an important aspect, characteristic of preferring that as the main way of distributing capital. So when it comes to share buybacks, it is an additional tool, it might be used and you also have arrangements with the government so that we can actually push that button if we like to. We know how to do it with the government, who would like to maintain their ownership in Equinor. So that is a complex consideration. It has to do as you pointed to the commodity environment, not only where we are but the uncertainties and the volatility and we have a lot of that. We saw it in the previous quarter. And as I said, the balance sheet, and I'm sorry, I can't give the figure, but it is not only about the balance sheet, but also about these other things including the opportunity set and how we see it. So I think this is something we just will have to look into, and depending on how things comes together. But there will be no figures coming from us on this one, predefined figures.

Thank you for those of you on the phone, we're going to go back into the room. We are going to go a little over time, so we want to try and keep it efficient. So I'm going to ask people to hand the mic over to the next person, and start with Michele and after you finish, can you pass it over to Rob. Eldar Sætre: Sorry, Nnwa-Doro.

Oh, sorry, [indiscernible] okay.

So Nnwa-Doro is a very significant gas discovery that we have in Nigeria. It is within deep waters and as in Tanzania, we are dependent on agreements with the government and established deepwater gas conditions for that field. So that is what needs to happen. We are looking at it, but it will clearly take time and a very dependent on discussions within the Nigerian state.

Michele.

Michele Vigna from Goldman Sachs. Eldar, you've entered the power market with a material position in wind and in trading. Some of your peers are also entering the retail market for power in the specific countries. I was wondering if that was on your radar screen as well. And last question, I was wondering if you would give us an indication of the tax installments in Norway for 2019? Eldar Sætre: Okay, so you address the tax. And on the retail, we've been there on the crude side and the gasoline stations and basically, as we see it is a very different game. It's a very different competence and it's extremely competitive and a business model that we are really not set up to address. So I think we could try, but I don't think we will be successful. So why try and waste. So I think - and I don't think it is necessary really to capture the values from our assets. What we do think is important is to be in the power markets because we see merchant risk coming into this renewable space, and we don't want to be cannibalized in that market. So have that strength to address that and capture these values, and also tying it into the natural gas business because we see hydrocarbons from natural gas and renewables. They are interruptible, natural gas is a flexible resource and other ways of combining. I just look at my colleagues here, if there are any additional - there isn't, they are very happy with my answer, so I'm good to go.

And then on tax installments Norway, 1st of February, April and June, totaling NEK 32.5 billion. And then we're also changing some of the guiding for tax internationally down from 50% to 55%, to down to then 30% to 45% due to more production from low or no tax income production. Around 1/3 of the profits internationally will come from no or low income, sort of no or low tax position countries.

Rob?

Rob Pulleyn from Morgan Stanley. May I ask you about the NCS pipeline of opportunities, particularly as Sverdrup CapEx steps down over coming years. Is there enough projects on the NCS to offset the increase in cash taxes we would otherwise see, and specifically, gas projects? So it looks like your portfolio post-trial in the mid-2020s will start to see declines and certainly I think it speaks to the question of Equinor's role in European gas supplies over the next couple of decades. Eldar Sætre: So just put in place a major gas development that is going to stay there for a long time, and opening up a new very gassy province in the Norwegian Sea as well. Just to mention that. You mentioned that we are exploring for gas, but now we've had enough time to think about this answer, Arne Sigve?

Yes. When it comes to gas specifically, Troll Phase 3 is a very, should I say, good project with reserves equal to the lower span of Johan Sverdrup. So and it will go 50 years into the future. And we have Oseberg and looking for even more gas also at [indiscernible] and other fields. But as we say in our roadmap, we will look for oil and gas, and that is why we have put into our roadmap quite a substantial amount of wells annually, both when it comes to production wells, but also exploration wells between 20 to 30. So we will export gas. We will develop our existing assets in an efficient way. But of course, it will be something that we will be working hard on going forward in the coming years. And roadmap is perspective of two decades. Eldar Sætre: I might add the major big projects that they are sort of, they are there, and we need to make big discoveries to have any of those. But we have a lot of projects and a lot of stuff to work with. And we can enhance what we have, and we can develop new prospects, probably smaller ones. So cost is really important, that we can - really can make these projects work, even if they are smaller wells and lean concepts.

Jason?

Jason Gammel with Jefferies. Just wanted to ask about the new energy portfolio. You talked about being able to achieve returns of about 10% of that business. That would be dilutive to the 14% target that you have on ROACE for the overall corporation. So just want to ask you how you think about the desire to diversify your businesses into new areas relative to the dilute that you actually have on returns? And how much capital you would actually be going to put forward in that type of investment? And then maybe just the final part of that, is there a point in time where you will start to disclose the results for the renewals business separately, so that we can evaluate the financial performance of that business? Eldar Sætre: So yes, that is very different returns from what we see in the oil and gas. But it is also extreme volatility within oil and gas. So now is good times, and there are worse times, there definitely have been. So this risk-reward is an important part of this concept. It has to be competitive in that space. I comment this is strategically meaningful, it's industrially meaningful because we can leverage with the competence that we have and do good projects. That makes us competitive in this space. It's also engages in the energy transition. I think that long term strategically is important. It's not something we, as a major company with a long-term horizon just can look at. We have to engage in that and take part in that transition. We don't know exactly the shape and form, and I'd also talked about the oil developments going forward. So I think the returns are different, competition is fierce. It has to work. That's why I say, we will grow our investments into renewables, we indicate 15% to 20%. The growth from the current around 5% is probably going to be backload a little bit as we're heading towards 2030. And we are working at full speed. Right now, we are [indiscernible] to some major projects, but we have access to a lot of projects. Maybe you would like to talk to that a little bit, Pal?

I guess we have three regions that stand out on renewable side, and as particularly on the offshore wind. So for U.K., it's clearly an area where we have been growing and also where we see the potential for more growth. It's also a country that's made a very deliberate step into renewables. You will also see that we have taken positions in the U.S. We are an upcoming auction in mid-February in New York, where we - and that we look forward to. And then recently we also took a position in Massachusetts. Both of those, we have gone in 100%, positioning in the region that we think is going to be important for offshore wind development going forward. Also building on the footprint we already have in the Northeast of the U.S. And then finally, we have also taken steps into Poland. We are quite early in Poland, and we have gone in at scale. And we think that is the region that's going to be the next wave of offshore wind developments where we can leverage the capabilities and strength that we think that we have. Eldar Sætre: And on disclosure, when are you going to disclose to some people?

That's way too early. We haven't had it on the agenda yet to - I mean, to discuss, I mean. It will take some time. Eldar Sætre: But it will happen.

It will happen one day.

Okay, one last one from the row.

Alastair Syme from Citi. Can I just ask on the Slide 45 on the creaming curve, you show the 4.3 billion barrels of resource. And you talk about a breakeven less than 40. Presumably, that's a go-forward breakeven, just to clarify. So shouldn't you think about what the acquisition cost that you've made over the last couple of years would do to that breakeven if you were to think about full cycle? And a related question, if I look at the 2017 curve, there is a very large flat line at about $40, close to 1 billion barrels and it's kind of disappeared from 2018 curve. So can I just clarify what's happened?

You thinking about the flat line? Eldar Sætre: So if I may, sort of this - obviously, this is where we're looking, as you say. That's - I always have to think about looking forward, what we can do. And before that, there has been a wide range of access in these resources from exploration to acquisitions that go a long way back in different markets [indiscernible] to some newer acquisition as well. So it's wide range of access cost. So basically, then you are back to sort of how we think when we do acquisitions and build a portfolio. Exploration is high priority. On top of that, we're looking for these opportunities. And obviously, when we start and look at these projects, we are looking at - we don't look at $40, that's not the starting point. But that's sort of - so you have to add - take into account sort of that you don't have all the answers where this is taking you. But you do know, and we have to know that we can make a difference. But this project, well, this is what it looks like now, and this is how we can enhance it going forward. So Rosebank was an illustration of that; Hunky Dory, when we started look at that, how can we enhance that and see that's what we can do. We can really down cost offshore. We've done that over the last couple of years and - but you need to get into the project. You need to access it and need to be very disciplined when you do that, but you also need to see that well, this is an asset that we can really work on - start working on. And I'm sure you will say that $40, that is - we can improve that going forward. But this is where we are now. It's a journey. And some projects take time to put them into the portfolio and might not have priority to work on it now, but we will pick it up and really start working it, and then we'll move the needle on the cost by putting our strengths to work. And part of - related to deliver on the CapEx, it's also strict price [indiscernible] now. So we do not necessarily work on all the projects all the time. Because this need to be stacked capacity wise, but also from a sort of financial sound way we're running our business. When you look at these slides, there has been no sort of asset long flat line that has been sort of a reduction in volume. So I am not 100% sure where on that line you are, but either it has been sanctioned, and thereby sort of out of the non-sanctioned, the 4.3 billion, or it has been split because we are now talking about Phase 1 and Phase 2. But most likely, it's been sanctioned and thereby sort of taken out of the non-sanctioned.

Now I'm going to - we have to close the hall for today. I know there's a couple of people who we didn't get around to, so I'm going to make sure that they get first chance to ask at the management direct, couple of people we didn't get around to today. And before I pass the word back to Eldar to close proceedings, just like to thank everybody on behalf of Investor Relations for coming in today. I would also remind you of the next couple of events that we've got scheduled. We've got our European Gas Seminar, which will be in London in here on the 21st of February; and also our SRI Day will be at the back end of May. So thank you very much. And, Eldar? Eldar Sætre: So thank you, Peter, so and thanks to all of you for coming and seeing us and taking the time to do that, spend these couple of hours with us. I hope sort of - this has been useful for you. I brought the whole team here today, and everybody hasn't been able to talk. You have sort of rare an opportunity to ask questions on exploration and on the mid and downstream and so on. So but they are here. So really an opportunity for you to get onto sort of whatever you'd like to hear from my whole team. So this is - and the reason why this is - the whole team is here because this is an important event for us. It's really an event that we use extensively, also internally. I use this event as a motivation for the rest of organization. Why do I do global town hall for - with hundred different locations actually tapping into that town hall? And the idea is really to make sure that everybody is on board on the promises of what we've said here today. So in the end, this is a slide that has been hanging on now for some time. I wanted you to see this, bring it with you. It's pretty - I think it's pretty compelling actually. And I won't go through it now. But don't forget what is in this slide. So take - bring it with you. And I'm sure you will reflect on this, and write your report or whatever you do. We will also continue with our business and go back home and do our business day to day. And we are deeply committed to what we have said here today, bring the whole team on board and some of us will also do some traveling and some [indiscernible] to see investors over the next few days. So we really look forward to that. So thank you very much to all of you for coming, spending the time with us. And enjoy the rest of the day, and have a very safe travel back home, wherever you go. Thank you very much.