Earnings Labs

Equinor ASA (EQNR)

Q4 2022 Earnings Call· Wed, Feb 8, 2023

$39.93

+3.61%

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Transcript

Anders Opedal

Management

Thank you, Bård and it's really good to see you all and to me is a pleasure to welcome you finally here in London for our Capital Markets Update. And I and my team, we are really looking forward to share our financial results and the progress on strategy and ambitions. 2022 was our special year. The war in Europe still causes human suffering and has disrupted the energy markets contributing to inflation and cost of living crisis. In Europe, this year marks a shift as we move forward, not relying on Russian oil and gas. Equinor responded quickly and we are well positioned to be a part of the solution. Short-term, deliver the energy needed, longer-term to build up sustainable energy sources contributing to energy security and decarbonization. Our milestone this year is the start-up of the Dogger Bank, the world largest offshore wind farm here in U.K. This leads me to the topic of the day, how we will deliver strong returns through the transition. Our strategy remains firm creating value on the way to Net Zero. We are progressing on optimizing oil and gas, high value growth in renewables and developing market opportunities in low carbon solutions. Position for high value creation, we expect a strong and resilient cash flow. In a $70 Brent scenario, we expect to deliver a very strong cash flow from operations. On average around $20 billion after tax annually all the way to 2030, we estimate an annual return of capital employed above 15% towards 2030. This strong outlook annually $20 billion after tax and solid financial position funds increased capital distribution and continued investments in profitable projects. For fourth quarter 2022, we step-up our capital distribution and propose a 50% increase in the ordinary cash dividend through $0.30 per share. In…

Irene Rummelhoff

Management

Just hoping to keep that a secret. But there you go. Well, thank you, Anders, and it's really good to see you all. I'll cover three topics today. I'll share some reflections on the gas market, then I'll explain why we upped our guidance. And then thirdly, I'll talk about and convince you that we're uniquely positioned to develop low carbon value chains. So first, the gas market. You all know what happened to the Russian volumes last year and how Europe managed to replace them through increased exports from Norway, severe demand reduction, but also very costly LNG imports. Lately, we've seen some relief, a relief that is directly correlated to the fact that we're in the midst of one of the warmest winters on record in Europe, and we actually saw demand reduction at 32% in January. So now the gas market is all about preparing for next winter. And we do believe that it's likely that storages will be built come November, the EU target or above 90%. But that requires continued demand reduction and high LNG imports levels. However, real relief will only come into this market beyond 2026, when we expect significant volumes coming in from Russia and Qatar. So in the meantime, the market will remain fundamentally tight and nervous, as my boss said earlier today. And I think there may be the three most or the biggest uncertainties to watch out for our weather, weather in Europe, weather in Asia, we saw how impactful that was this winter. Then it is also quite interesting to see whether for instance, industrial demand will come up again, now that we've kind of landed at a dampened level. And the supply interruptions is always something to look out for, particularly in such a tight market. Going…

Torgrim Reitan

Management

So thank you very much, Irene and thank you all for joining us today. It is very good to see you again and it is very good to be back as CFO in Equinor. Since my last time around, a lot has changed, but one thing remains constant, value creation is our top priority. After safety, this is the first priority and it is always more important than the volume targets. So coming into this role, I have two main priorities. First, that Equinor steer safely through volatility and through these uncertain times and commode as a stronger company. And second that we continue to be a leading company in the energy transition and deliver cash flow and creating value for shareholders. Our robust balance sheet and strong cash flow outlook position us well to transition in an investor-friendly way. In 2022, we had solid operations and we contributed to energy security and at the same time we delivered a record returns and cashflow from operations. We stepped up or capital distribution and we invested more than ever in the energy transition. So this result does not come for free. My colleagues in Equinor have made significant improvements over the past years and we are all benefiting from that. So we're in a good position and we have a strong balance sheet, but in times like this we need to prepare for lower prices and drive costs and capital discipline. So I will walk you through our financial framework after I've taken -- talking to our results. So in the fourth quarter and full-year, we saw solid operations from oil and gas, against this dark backdrop of the Russian War on Ukraine, we completed or exit from Russia, the flexibility of our gas fields on the NCS enabled us to…

Martijn Rats

Management

Hello. It's Martijn Rats, I'm with Morgan Stanley. I wanted to ask you about the European gas markets, if I can only limit it to one topic. So last year, so part of the incremental gas supply from Norway to Europe was at the expense of some oil production, because it was gas that was otherwise reinjected. And I was wondering, given the balance of prices at the moment, whether you could reverse that, i.e., less gas, but then at the benefit of oil production? And secondly, on the same topic, I wanted to ask you, when you mentioned we lowered gas supply to Europe in the fourth quarter, because of the lower demand. That sort of sounds a bit like OPEC. It sounds a bit like some sort of market management going home. Now of course, the obvious question would be to ask at what price level would you expect to start doing that going forward? I'm sure you won't answer that question, but I was hoping you could say a few things about the circumstances under which you might sort of be quite dynamic and active, is it demand? Is it inventories? Is it price? I think that would be very helpful.

Anders Opedal

Management

Yes. Thank you. And you prepare for the last question. And we -- as you said, we are injecting -- selling the gas to the market instead of injecting into some the reservoir. This is something that we monitor very, very closely in terms of long-term value creation and making sure that we are developing the reserves and not leaving reserves behind. So this is a kind of trade-off between what is the equivalent liquid price for gas compared to the oil. And if you see that gas prices are lower than the oil prices, and we are seeing that we will might lose out a long-term value, we might change this, because again, this is about creating long-term value.

Irene Rummelhoff

Management

What I think it's important to note that gas is still $120 oil equivalent. So it's still a high level of prices. I think with respect to your question on moving gas further out in time. I alluded in my presentation to the fact that we have an increasingly flexible portfolio. And what do I mean by that? We have flexibility upstream, some of our gas fields are now coming very close to the client phase, which means that depending on the price signals, where the demand is needed, we can choose to produce the gas now or we can move it to one year ahead of in time or two years ahead of time. So it's basically an optimization on prices, but it's reflective of the demand situation in Europe. So using the upstream production more or less as a gas stored. Bård Glad Pedersen: Good. Let me move to you and here in the front next.

Lydia Rainforth

Management

It's Lydia Rainforth from Barclays. And I want to come back, obviously, $75 billion is an amazing profit number, and you're matching it with $17 billion of cash returns to shareholders. Why is that the right number for '23? Because obviously, you could have phased it more on cap payouts higher for longer, but just at a lower level. So I'm just wondering why $17 billion is the right number for this year? And this isn't quite linked to that, but Torgrim, just on the tax side, obviously, the tax PAT guidance for first half is much lower than it was for the second half, I think, in terms of what you actually paid. So I'm just wondering, is that purely a price thing for it?

Anders Opedal

Management

When we look at the capital distribution. Now the shareholder distribution, as we said today, we're increasing the ordinary cash dividend to give the long-term commitment based on the long-term underlying earnings. And together with the $1.2 billion in share buyback, this demonstrates how we see -- feel about the business going forward. Then, as you know, we have a very, very strong balance sheet, and we are a negative net debt ratio. And we have said and as Torgrim said also it today that we are moving towards our long-term guiding of 15 to 30, the balancing between the ordinary dividend and the extraordinary dividend is what we feel is the right for optimal capital structure in the long run. And Torgrim, you got a question?

Torgrim Reitan

Management

Yes. Thanks, Lydia. You're right. So since we sort of initially gave expectations for taxes, gas prices have fallen significantly. So that's the reason why we are reducing sort of the cash tax payment expectations for the first half. Bård Glad Pedersen: Let's move to the front here, and then [indiscernible], and then we'll take one from the phone after that.

Oswald Clint

Management

Thank you very much. It's Oswald Clint at Bernstein. It was good to see the enthusiasm from Irene on the customer side. I always look for more of that from Equinor versus your customer-rich competitors. But -- so RWE, NG [ph], the deals you've laid out, you didn't quite talk about expected returns from these chains. Torgrim showed us 30% in the upstream, you said it took a lot of time to strike these deals, but you're selling gas, then blue hydrogen, then green hydrogen and there's different pricing going on there, which is quite opaque to us. So maybe just talk about what are these integrated returns that you can tell us that we should expect? And just a linked side question. In those discussions, do you think Russian gas could ever make a way back into Germany? Thank you.

Anders Opedal

Management

Yes, I'll start a little bit, and you can comment on the Russian gas as well. We have progressed very well on both working together with NG and RWE and gradually building up this new value chain that is so important to decarbonize the industry in Germany and Europe. We see that this will be based on contracts for differences in -- particularly for hydrogen and also the ETS price will drive the prices more for the carbon services. So we are seeing returns and it's too early to guide on this, because we are uniquely positioned, and we're going to really be one of the first one developing this, but we will see returns in the same range as we say for renewables. But too early to say exactly. But we worked really hard to develop these projects and make them as good as possible using the same toolbox as we have used for renewables and oil and gas projects to make these projects profitable.

Irene Rummelhoff

Management

And I think there are two phases with respect to these kind of projects. It's one where we will need subsidies, both for the CO2 value chains and the hydrogen value chains. But I think when you get closer to 2030, the EU ETS prices going to be higher than the cost of capturing and storing CO2. So then you get into a commercially driven environment, and you could expect to see different returns at that point in time. But -- the other thing I would want to highlight compared to the renewables is that the entry barrier into this space is much higher. So if you start out on a level you're more likely to be able to hold on to that level than what we have seen in some of the renewable businesses. Then you asked whether I think Russian gas will come back to Germany. And I would say no, today. But then we also know that politics changes times move on. So -- but within the -- we have no assumptions in our models of seeing Russian gas coming back to Europe in the next three to four years. I think what will happen, though, is some of the Russian gas will be rerouted to China via pipeline, they might expand their LNG export capacity or so. So I don't think it necessarily will disappear from the market, but it seems as of now, at least very unlikely that it will hit the German market anytime soon. Bård Glad Pedersen: Let's do [indiscernible] and then we do one from the phone afterwards.

Teodor Sveen Nilsen

Management

Teodor Nilsen, Sparebank1 Markets. So congrats on very strong results this year. Positive also to see how specific you are on dividends and buybacks. So more specifically on those $17 billion you promise as shareholder returns this year. How sensitive is that to oil and gas prices. We all know that this is a very cyclical and volatile industry. So in a scenario where you see much lower oil and gas prices this year, we'll still stick to the $17 billion? Or is it some kind of sensitive to oil and gas prices?

Anders Opedal

Management

As I said in my speech, is that this is the number we're setting out for this year. This board's clear intention to keep the same dividend level for the next three quarters. And as you see, we have a very, very strong balance sheet with cash and cash equivalents around $45 billion. So this is also about putting us closer to the long-term guiding of the 15% to 30% net debt range.

Torgrim Reitan

Management

Can I begin you Anders. I think the ordinary cash dividend and ordinary share buyback program, that is linked to outlook for the future, the $20 billion cash flow from operations and the return on capital employed. The extraordinary part is related to money already earned, and that is actually sitting on our balance sheet currently. So that is $45 billion in cash and cash equivalents. So that is linked to the extraordinary part and it is not linked to earnings this year or future earnings. Bård Glad Pedersen: Let's take one from the phone and then I give the microphone to Biraj in the middle of the room for the next one after that.

Operator

Operator

John Olaisen, ABG.

John Olaisen

Management

Good afternoon gentlemen. You have changed your guidance for renewable volumes from gigawatt hours. The gigawatt or installed capacity terawatt hours of production. And I'm wondering a little bit about this. Firstly, is the terawatt hour guidance net number to you? Is it a gross number? Secondly, why did you change the guidance? And then thirdly, this chart of power generation of terawatt hours between now and 2030. Is that based on the assets you have today? Or is it assuming that you win acreage also in the future license rounds or do acquisitions.

Anders Opedal

Management

Yes. I'll start on this one. And I know Pål is also eager to jump in on this one. But first of all, the 12 to 16 ambition for renewables of 12 to 16 gigawatt remains firm. We have already accessed the 14 of this. So we are on the path to deliver on this. But gigawatts is just a potential, power and terawatt hours is really the power we will produce, which is a basis for future cash flow. And when we discuss to develop the renewable business further, we say that now we want to really measure ourselves on how we develop as in power generation. Remembering that different sources of renewables have different capacity to produce a different amount of power. So Pål might be allude a little bit how you have developed portfolio as well over the last year. PålEitrheim: Yes, thank you. So I don't think we have made a deliberate choice of changing our guidance. I think we've actually been providing more information on what we've been doing in the past. And our starting point is that we have built a very strong position in offshore wind. But during very heated markets over the last few years, what we have been doing is actually being a net seller of shares and offshore wind and monetizing in that market. We have also seen that we have a portfolio that was in need of a bit of diversification. So that is why you have seen us make bolt-on acquisitions into onshore platforms in Poland with Wento with a 1.6 gigawatt pipeline and with BeGreen in Denmark that closed only last week. So we have been diversifying our portfolio. So what you see in the installed capacity numbers is a higher element of onshore volumes and solar PV, in particular, than what you have seen in the past that comes on top of that strong offshore wind portfolio. So the 14 gigawatts of installed capacity roughly corresponds to the lower end of the production range that we have given today. But given that we now have a portfolio, we also see quite a bit of upside in bringing merchant onshore volumes where we can trade and market these volumes in the market compared to locked-in long-term PPAs that we have on the offshore wind side. So to me, it is a way of demonstrating that we are putting value over volume in the way that we are prioritizing our portfolio.

Operator

Operator

Yes, please. Can I get the microphone?

Biraj Borkhataria

Management

Hi, thanks. It's Biraj Borkhataria, RBC. I wanted to ask about free cash flow deployment. So Torgrim, you were very clear that the CapEx increase was back-end loaded. And you're in somewhat of a unique position as a company given the strong macro environment last year. You're sitting on $20 billion of net cash and so on. But could you just talk about why you're choosing to make that CapEx profile back end loaded? Is it that you're concerned about supply chain inflation and so on? Is it they maturing the projects? And maybe you could also touch on policy because there is a narrative that the U.S. is obviously pushing ahead with the IRA and so on, and your carbon capture profile and options are largely European focused. I just wanted to get your thoughts on the regulatory environment there as well. So it's two questions. Thank you.

Anders Opedal

Management

Yes, I'll start a little bit on CapEx, Torgrim, and you can follow-up. So we have a CapEx guiding, which is very much in line with previous guidance. And with some smaller adjustments, which is from year-to-year and project phasing, we are fairly stable on the oil and gas. So the increase you're seeing and the increase with 13% on average, which is back-end loaded is really the increase in renewables and is also a potential increase where we will finance renewals over the balance sheet. Regarding -- we will not never sanction projects before they are good enough. And that's why also we will see that there are some flexibility to when we will sanction these projects, and there can be small adjustments, and that's why we're guiding in our range here going forward. Yes, IRA. And we do have projects both in Europe where we kind of have a very, very good, and I think Irene said it very clearly, where we have a strong position, which is with higher barriers to enter. And then we have also projects in U.S., but quite fierce competition. So maybe you want to say a little bit of what we're doing in the U.S. And if you have anything to add on CapEx to, please let me know.

Irene Rummelhoff

Management

I can do that. I think we always trace where we have opportunities, where we have a competitive advantage. And clearly, in Europe, we have the infrastructure, we have the customer relationships, et cetera. The other place where we see some synergies with the existing business is in the U.S. And for some time, we've been chasing couple of opportunities, bigger ones in Tri-State area in the U.S. and also on ammonia export projects. These projects overnight with the IRA became much more attractive, and we continue to mature those. But Europe was way ahead of the U.S. when it came to incentives for a while. And then the U.S. moved ahead. You saw on the lane out there saying, we're going to up our game. So I think this is not going to be a static picture. You're going to see the supportive -- support machines change over time. So stick to where we really have a competitive advantage, but clearly quite excited about what goes on in the U.S. right now. Bård Glad Pedersen: Torgrim?

Torgrim Reitan

Management

Yes, on CapEx, a very important question. So -- it all starts with that we are driven by maximizing the value creation out of that investment program. So we have deliberately taken some decision to say, okay, these projects need to be worked more and they will come later. And I think this thing, as I mentioned, is sort of one example of that. The other one is that in a big portfolio where we are an operator, clearly, we need to manage execution capability and inflation as such. And we have seen inflation last year, quite significant, but we really, really need to manage that, meaning that we need to see to that we have a good portfolio over years to manage that. And you saw from our presentation, $35 breakeven of the upstream project portfolio, that has remained rather constant over the years despite that we have had inflation in the period. So that's sort of KPI or matrix to follow. That is really where we see that we can create value by actually profiling the investments in the way that we do. So we're not driven by volume targets, but driven by value. I think I've said it 10 times now. So that's for sure. Bård Glad Pedersen: That's good. One in the back there, and then we'll take one more on the phone and continue here in the room.

Christopher Kuplent

Management

Thank you. It's Chris Kuplent from Bank of America. I really welcome the clarity you've given on the capital distribution front. But maybe Torgrim, I'll challenge you here a little bit because you're presenting a $50 breakeven after CapEx and I think on your 2023 cash flow outlook, the $17 billion of cash returns are going to be covered roughly where we are right now in $80 plus/minus gas prices where we are right now. So it looks like you're giving yourself quite some time redistributing your balance sheet strength to pick up your comment earlier. So just wonder whether you can give us a bit more color in terms of how much time you have to reallocate that balance sheet strength that you've accumulated. And of course, my second question is the least popular one because I know you're not going to want to answer it, but I'll ask it anyway. What role does your M&A team play here in having a claim on that balance sheet strength? And maybe Anders if you or Irene if you want to give us a little bit of your view on what the market currently looks like. This is no longer a zero interest world. What does the M&A market look like to you? Thanks.

Anders Opedal

Management

Yes, I can start with that a little bit. As we have said many times, M&A is always in our toolbox. And you have seen what we have done in the past. You have seen how we have been optimizing our oil and gas portfolio both by acquiring some and divesting some, always constantly driving to make sure that the robustness of the company will increase by doing so. Of course -- and then also for the renewables with Wento and BeGreen, as Pål said, it was a time we felt it was very, very expensive, but then with increased inflations and interest rates we have made some acquisition and also with Tritan, a bolt-on acquisition there. Going forward, I'm not going to comment on it, but we follow this market very closely. But to follow my CFO, we will value over volume driven also when we use the M&A market. And then Torgrim, he challenged you and you want to comment as well.

Torgrim Reitan

Management

Thanks. A very important question and a great question. And I thought you actually had two because you talked about $50 breakeven on the slide. I just want to explain that a little bit to you because we are building a company that will function from A2C in a $50 environment, meaning that sort of the capital distribution that we have committed to, the ordinary part of it is going to work in a lower price environment assets. So that is very, very important. And again, we have significant flexibility in managing lower prices as we are a large operator, and we are the captain of our own investment program, if you like. So I think that is sort of very important to understand. The second one today or this year, we are planning on a negative net cash flow. And I'm glad for that. And it's probably strange to hear as CFO saying that. But with a $17 billion the cash distribution, we clearly planned for a negative net cash, and then moving towards a more optimal capital distribution. So we will -- we aim 15 to 30, and that's what will happen this year is on its way to that. And then clearly, the balance sheet will remain very robust and solid. And clearly, we will be careful as always. And I think you might want to look at the past and see the capital discipline under the CEO over the last few years. And clearly, we want to keep that intact.

Anders Opedal

Management

And just to add, two years ago, I presented the worst result from Equinor, and two years later, the best result ever. This shows the volatility in this market, and that's why we're focusing on the robustness, and Irene you're eager to answer.

Irene Rummelhoff

Management

No, no, I just wanted to draw your attention to the M&A we have done within MMP, because we acquired Scatec ASA, then we acquired Triton and both of them have been tremendously good investments in the Danske Commodities, the results since the acquisition have paid back the acquisition the multiple times and Triton was actually paid back twice in the course of four months. So yes. Bård Glad Pedersen: Let's take the one on the phone. And can I ask you to limit it to one question so that we can cover as many as possible.

Operator

Operator

Michele Della Vigna from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Michele Della Vigna

Management

Perfect. Thank you very much. And again, congratulations on the record -- on the record cash return to shareholders for 2023. I had one question. When I look at the delivery of mega projects in oil and gas, the industry from 2014 until COVID hit, was in a consistent trend of improvement, a quicker time to market, shorter delivery and everything was coming on stream more or less on time and on budget. Then through COVID the main problem were with the yards in Asia. How do you see the outlook for delivery? Where do you see the tightness in the coming years? And looking specifically at two of your most complex megaprojects, Castberg and Bacalhau, do you still feel confident those can come on stream on time? Thank you.

Anders Opedal

Management

Thank you very much. That was actually a very good summary of what happened in the project markets from 2014 and onwards. Yes, I think all projects were hampered by the COVID and not only the yachts in Asia, but also I think the yachts worldwide and also in Norway. We are recovering from that now. And Geir and his team are making really good progress. We are on plan with the Castberg project, but the Bacalhau project in Brazil will be delivered during 2025. Bård Glad Pedersen: Yoann Charenton from Societe Generale.

Yoann Charenton

Management

Thank you again for the presentation. If you don't mind, I would like to go back on CapEx. And if you could provide some color on the breakdown, it's true that you are being consistent. We have not seen massive change in terms of guidance for organic CapEx. But at the same time, in the past year, we have seen Equinor exiting Russia. You referred to the Inflation Reduction Act as an impulse basically for investments. So can you explain -- and of course, I should add to that Wisting as well has been delayed for a few years. So can you explain basically what replaced the exit from Russia in terms of contribution to CapEx and the removal of Wisting to basically lead us to this level, which is sort of consistent with what you guided for before?

Anders Opedal

Management

Okay. Thank you very much. So yes, the guiding this year is actually, I would say, consistent and quite consistent with what we have said earlier. For '22 and '23, if you summarize those two years, it's actually slightly below what we said last year. Then sort of in the -- going forward, we are actually extending the period with one year, and we say that CapEx is back-end loaded. So in reality, it is sort of the same CapEx level that we know are putting forward despite that we have seen sort of inflation over the years. We have built in future inflation assumptions. So we are quite comfortable that these are sort of numbers that are strong. Again, I mean, the CapEx program is driven by oil and gas, which is flat over years. So we continue to invest on the same rate. We are growing our investments within renewables and low carbon solutions. And then we aim to use our balance sheet more in financing our renewables business due to that increasing interest rate makes that more sensible. So that will be to Pål's portfolio, and that will be reported as CapEx on equity terms, so that will actually change the reporting on the investments. So those are the key elements. So it is actually fairly consistent with what we have said earlier.

Alastair Syme

Management

Thanks. Alastair Syme at Citi. Can I ask about the long-term oil and gas production profile? The one you show to 2030 is sort of flat to down 15%. So what defines that range? And just to link it back to value, what's the $20 billion cash flow linked from a volume standpoint?

Anders Opedal

Operator

The $20 billion cash flow from operation after tax is really based on both the production profile. We've shown on the oil and gas. And also with the contribution from Irene and her team as we have increased the guiding there. And gradually, also towards 2030, we will also see more and more coming in from renewables. So that is the basis for those $20 billion there. And then your first question was?

Alastair Syme

Management

What defines the range?

Irene Rummelhoff

Management

Where do you have that range of production off-right?

Anders Opedal

Operator

Yes. In terms of -- of course, this is we are now constantly developing new resources on the Norwegian Continental Shelf, for instance, and sanctioning new projects. We have an exploration program, and we are using quite a lot of sanctioning smaller project would tie into existing facilities. So there are always a little bit some uncertainty, but Kjetil, heading of the Norwegian Continental Shelf. He can explain a little bit how he is working now to ensure that he keep the production on Norwegian Continental Shelf at a high level to 2030 and beyond.

Kjetil Hove

Analyst

Yes, that I could do for hour specifically.

Anders Opedal

Operator

Please go.

Kjetil Hove

Analyst

But very quickly, the variation between the upper and lower bound is basically the project that we need to sanction on the next three, four years, so that is the difference in the production. So it's a project that we're sitting on. It's not a lot of exploration. I don't think there is any in that time frame. So it's basically the project that we need to sanction the next three, four years, which is the difference. Bård Glad Pedersen: Good. We have Paul there on the middle. Yes.

Paul Redman

Analyst

Yes, thank you very much guys. It's Paul Redman from BNP Paribas. I just had a quick question on gas prices. So normally, we think about cash prices on maybe an annual basis. But if Europe comes out this winter with significantly higher storage volumes, do you have a view kind of on a quarterly basis how that gas price could pay out? Could we go significantly lower than where we are today? And then secondly, how would that impact your extraordinary distributions if gas prices do go significantly lower through the middle of the year?

Anders Opedal

Operator

I will start and then Irene can talk more about. But as Torgrim said very, very clearly earlier, the extraordinary distribution for 2023 is based on past earnings and it's the Board's clear intention to have the same level of dividend, ordinary and extraordinary for the next three quarters.

Irene Rummelhoff

Management

Maybe on the gas market, it seems like the market has found some kind of equilibrium right now, but -- and taking it through the next summer. But it's important to remember that come November, storage as a full -- they were full in November last year as well. So it's basically a reset. And you're looking at the next year, again, needing to attract more LNG and reduce demand even further. So I think the best thing we can say is that we do expect volatility and also that the uncertainty or the upside is higher than the downside given what we have seen. Bård Glad Pedersen: We are a bit on over time, but I feel bad because I've overlooked this side for one. So if you take one final here.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Thank you. I'm [indiscernible] from SEB. Will you leave a profitable barrels behind in your energy transition journey?

Anders Opedal

Operator

No, we don't plan to do that. We plan to develop the oil -- the energy transition needs to be a balanced transition. So that means that oil and gas will play a role in the energy transition. And as we have demonstrated today that we will continue developing the oil and gas business. I think we have 20 years of resources in our books meaning that Philippe and Kjetil will continue to develop those resources together with Geir bring them into real projects, implementing technologies and have a target of these break evens that Torgrim talked about, 35 in break even. So we will continue to mature reserves and not leave valuable barrels behind in the energy transition. Bård Glad Pedersen: Very good. I think we now need to close this session. I will leave the word to you to do that Anders. I just want to remind you all that you are invited to lunch in the area outside of here afterwards and that we will start the breakout sessions, what is it quarter past two. So Anders, if you want to say any concluding remarks.

Anders Opedal

Operator

No I just wanted to say that thank you very much for coming. I think we have presented a very strong outlook for Equinor, both for 2023, but also into the future. So thank you for coming, and have a good lunch.