David S. Santee
Analyst · David Toti with Cantor
Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone. Today, I'll round out our Q1 performance results with a brief recap of our key drivers of revenue growth, provide some color on our expenses and how that plays out for the balance of the year, and then give you current pricing, renewal rates for April and May, coupled with some brief commentary across the core markets. Now in addition to the renewal and occupancy results David gave you in his opening remarks, turnover for the quarter continued its decline with an 80 basis point reduction from Q1 of '13, translating into a 300 basis point decline on a year-to-date annualized basis. While managing lease expirations is a never-ending but critical process, the percentage of residents electing to renew with us is at the highest level we have seen in the 7 years we have been tracking this metric. Also fueling the lower turnover is less home buying. Move-outs for home purchases decreased 30 basis points, to 11.9% of move-outs. But more telling is the absolute number of residents buying homes, declining in 9 out of 10 of our core markets, the lowest we have seen in the last 5 quarters. Net effective new lease base rents for the quarter averaged above 3% through March, and have averaged slightly above 4.5% April-over-April. While a much stronger start to the leasing season than last year, improving rates are simply reacting to the normal season patterns that occur every year. Also contributing to our favorable revenue growth for the quarter is the ancillary income growth in the Archstone portfolio. Plugging these assets into our platform allows us the visibility to fully realize the benefits of our centralized and subject-matter expert approach to day-to-day property management activity. Simple things like late charges, which were up 50%; pet rent, up 250%; transfer fees, up 220% all add up to being very accretive to our total income growth. As we say internally, the next big thing at Equity Residential is doing many small things extremely well, if not perfect. As we look out over the next 90 days, our exposure is dead on to same week 1 year ago. Renewal offers have been issued above 7% through July and achieved renewal results for April and May are on the books at 5.3%, with net effective new lease rents approaching 5% year-over-year. With all these indicators flashing green, we remain extremely optimistic, but mindful, of the magnitude of new deliveries across all of our markets, and that the full year revenue growth targets are achieved over the next 90 days. Expenses for the quarter came in on the high end of our expectations, due to utilities and real estate taxes. As we have discussed previously, real estate taxes, payroll and utilities make up 68% of total operating costs. So by now, it's no surprise that utility costs had a significant impact across all types of businesses as a result of the extreme temperatures. More telling are the significant price spikes that occurred in the deregulated electricity markets in the Northeast, with unprecedented increases of 300% to 400% across all of the regional pricing indexes. Consumption of energy in the EQR portfolio was up a modest 5% to 7%, as we continually to -- as we continue to aggressively invest in LED lighting, solar and cogeneration opportunities that provide outstanding rates of return on investment. More recently, with global forces having tremendous influence on energy costs here at home, vigilance will be necessary to keep these costs in check going forward. Additionally, since our initial guidance in February, we have revised real estate taxes upward to 6.2% from 5.2%, both for the full year, as a result of Washington, D.C. valuations increasing more than expected and higher-than-expected taxes in King County, Seattle, Washington. Now mitigating these costs are the operational efficiencies realized through the addition of the Archstone portfolio to full year same-store. Comparing Q1 '14 costs on the EQR platform versus Q1 2013 costs on the Archstone platform allowed us to reduce total costs in leasing and advertising, which were down 23%; turnover cost, down 19%; property management cost, down 2.3%; and most importantly, making up 20% of our total expense, on-site payroll, which was down 4%. So excluding real estate taxes and utilities, our controllable operating expenses declined 2.1% for the quarter. While we expect these expense levels on the Archstone portfolio to continue to offset legacy portfolio growth rates, the impact will diminish over the course of the year, primarily in the next 2 quarters. Archstone Payroll, as an example, was not fully optimized until mid-Q3 of '13. For modeling purposes, we would not expect any material expense mitigation beyond Q3 and the mitigation in Q2 to be less favorable than Q1. Now moving on to the markets. I'll provide you with our occupancy today. April and May achieved renewal rates and then net effective new lease base rents 4 weeks out. For California, I'll only quote April renewals, as these are 30-day markets and May has yet to firm. As David said, we continue to maintain our 3 buckets of performance across the portfolio. In our top-performing bucket we have San Francisco, Denver and Seattle, with expected full year revenue growth well above 5.5%. The bottom bucket remains Washington, D.C., down 1%. And all other markets, making up the middle bucket, with expected full year revenue growth of 3.5% to 5%. Seattle continues to be a great job producer and systematically absorbed the expected 7,500 deliveries without material disruption to the market. With occupancy at 96% and exposure on top of same week last year, renewal rates achieved for April and May are gaining momentum at 8.3% and 9%, respectively. Net effective base rents 30 days out are up 6% to 7% versus same period last year, with impressive strength in the CBD and Belltown, Queen Anne submarkets. San Francisco continues to be our top market for yet another year, with the Peninsula and South Bay leading the way in year-over-year revenue growth, while North San Jose continues to absorb units at a reasonable pace. After a slow start to the year, occupancy is now 96.3%, and renewal rates achieved remain strong at 8.8% for April, with net effective base rents up 8% to 9%. Denver, despite delivering almost 10,000 units this year, remains resilient with a bustling energy and tech-driven economy, and is producing some of the best job growth numbers in percentage terms in the nation. With concentrated deliveries in the urban core and our portfolio concentrated in the South and Southwest, we would expect another banner year from Denver, with occupancy today at 96.6%. Renewal rates achieved remain very solid at 8.3% and 8.5%, with net effective base rents above 7%. So jumping down to Los Angeles. Results, thus far, while solid, unfortunately do not paint the picture of the breakout year that many had hoped. L.A. continues its slow and steady improvement in fundamentals, with occupancy at 95.4%, although employment remains stubbornly high at 8.7%. Nevertheless, renewals achieved are solid for April at 6.1%. Net effective base rents are up 5.8%, again this is versus same week last year, and are poised have a good run over the next 3 months, based on our historical seasonal pattern. Orange County, after dealing with a constant stream of elevated concessions in Q1, primarily from the overhang of delayed deliveries, has now returned to good health. Occupancy today is 95.9% and achieved renewal rates improved to 4.9%, with net effective base rents up 6%. Our outlook for Orange County is a bit brighter than that of L.A. San Diego, good news. The ship is still in, with occupancy strong at 96.7%. Renewal growth rates are some of the highest we've seen in years, at 5.2% for April. Net effective base rents are steady, up 6% over same week last year. With 5,000 new units sprinkled throughout the market, we would expect smooth sailing through the balance of the year. So jumping over to Boston. The urban core deliveries have arrived, and are in full lease-up mode. Across the street and down the block, we continue to see favorable demand in our downtown submarkets and steady absorption of quality assets, with only minus price -- modest price negotiations on renewals, at 96.8% occupancy, and renewals achieved having remained solid at 4.1% and 4.3%. Net effective base rents remain strong, up 4.5%, versus same week last year. Now New York fared better with occupancy in the quarter. However, the pause button remained in the on position relative to net effective base rent growth, which remained at or below 2% for much of the quarter. Job growth remains solid, but many are on the low end of the pay scale, with fewer in the higher-paying financial services sector. Today, the portfolio is 96% occupied, with achieved renewal rates of 4.7% for both April and May. Net effective base rents were up 4%, versus same week last year. So the next 2 months should set the table for full year revenue growth. Jumping down to South Florida, and saving Washington for last. South Florida remains a steady performer with occupancy at 95.8%, about the same position they were last year. Achieved renewals of 5.7% and 5.8% for April and May are very strong, with net effective base rents well above 6%. Given our diversified 3-county portfolio, we would not expect, nor are we seeing, any impact from the expected 7,200 new deliveries this year on top of the 6,000 units delivered in '13. And last but not least is Washington, D.C. Occupancy pressures are starting to mount as our portfolio occupancy sits at 95% today, roughly 30 to 40 basis points less versus year-to-date last year. Looking at our dashboard, there still appears to be a healthy level of demand across the MSA. Net effective base rents continue to fluctuate between flat and minus 2%, as the various submarkets react to the deliveries. Achieved renewal rates are still holding at 2.6% and 3.3% for April and May. And our experience during the last downturn leads us to believe we can continue to mitigate the effective lower new lease rents with more favorable positive renewal growth. Jobs will continue to be the governor on how this all plays out for 2016. Today, though, interestingly, aside from PG County, Maryland, the District and the Rosslyn-Ballston submarkets are performing the best, making up 41% of our portfolio. Both have the least negative year-to-date revenue decline, with current month revenue growth improving versus Alexandria and South Arlington submarkets, which are further out and declining, a potential signal that many are taking advantage of moving closer in while rental rates become more attractive. So all in all, everything appears to be on track as we enter the peak leasing season. Seattle takes first place for the unexpected upside surprise, while New York City brings us back to even. We know there are major delivery hurdles out there, but to date, the markets are absorbing these units with little dislocation or concessions. We have our platform tuned up. We have some of the best and brightest in our industry across many disciplines, and we're all anxious to deliver our 2014 goals.