Earnings Labs

Energy Recovery, Inc. (ERII)

Q1 2023 Earnings Call· Wed, May 3, 2023

$10.78

-2.80%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to Energy Recovery First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, James Siccardi, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

James Siccardi

Analyst

Hello everyone, and welcome to Energy Recovery's 2023 first‐quarter earnings conference call. My name is Jim Siccardi, Vice President of Investor Relations at Energy Recovery. And I am here today with our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Bob Mao; and our Chief Financial Officer, Joshua Ballard. During today's call, we may make projections and other forward‐looking statements under the Safe Harbor provisions contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 regarding future events or the future financial performance of the company. These statements may discuss our business, economic, and market outlook, growth expectations, new products and their performance, cost structure, and business strategy. Forward‐looking statements are based on information currently available to us and on management's beliefs, assumptions, estimates, or projections. Forward‐looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties, and other factors. We refer you to documents the company files from time to time with the SEC, specifically the company's Form 10‐K and Form 10‐Q. These documents identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in our projections or forward‐looking statements. All statements made during this call are made only as of today, May 3, 2023, and the company expressly disclaims any intent or obligation to update any forward‐looking statements made during this call to reflect subsequent events or circumstances, unless otherwise required by law. At this point, I will turn the call over to our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Bob Mao.

Bob Mao

Analyst

Thank you, Jim. Good afternoon and thank you everyone for joining us today. Let me start with the latest updates in our Water business. In desalination, we continue to be on track for this year. The Middle East remains the foundation of our desalination sales, but as water scarcity continues to increase, other regions are clearly emerging. We’ve previously spoken on the potential of Asia a number of times, which remains true. However, we have not spoken in much detail about North African countries, such as Morocco, Egypt, and Algeria, who are showing real promise as well. Morocco is increasingly turning to desalination to ease the impact of its multi‐year drought, which is the worst the country has seen in 40 years. Reservoir levels in Morocco have fallen by half from about 62% in 2013 to 32% in 2022. Water supplies in Morocco have fallen below 650 cubic meters per capita from 2,500 in 1960 and are expected to decline throughout this decade. Today, Morocco relies on its surface and underground water for nearly all its water needs, but these sources are quickly drying up. They have recently announced aggressive plans to invest in desalination in the coming years. We are already seeing growth in revenue from Morocco in 2023 and 2024 and expect to see that growth accelerate considerably by 2025 to 2026. We have previously discussed Egypt’s plan to invest in desalination as a response to the damming of the Blue Nile by Ethiopia. In December of last year, Egypt announced plans to award 21 additional desalination plants this year, to be commissioned in the coming four years, totaling 3.3 million cubic meters of daily production in the first phase of a program that could ultimately reach nearly 9 million cubic meters by 2050. Despite some of their…

Joshua Ballard

Analyst

Good afternoon, everyone. We generated revenue within guidance, at $13.4 million. Of that revenue, 1.4 million came from industrial wastewater, and a little over a 100,000 from CO2, with the balance from desalination. OEM and aftermarket revenues made up 74% of desalination revenue in the first quarter, which is contrary to a typical quarter, but simply highlights the heavy weight of mega project shipments planned in the second half of the year. We believe we will achieve the upper end of our guidance for the second quarter, and our guidance for the year remains unchanged. Let’s talk briefly about where we stand on our path to our $200 million desalination revenue target in 2026. Our long‐term growth outlook remains strong, despite seeing some short‐term fluctuations during this global economic uncertainty as we’re seeing this year. Based on this year’s guidance, we would need to average 16% to 17% growth over the three years from 2024 to 2026 to achieve $200 million in 2026. This is similar growth to what we’ve seen over the past five years. Where we sit today, given our pipeline, the fundamentals of the overall market, and the strength of our product set, we believe we can still achieve that target. As we look to the nearer future, we remain comfortable in our 2023 outlook, but are paying close attention to risks in the market that could affect our 2024 revenue. In particular, rising costs and the current economic uncertainty seem to be delaying the tendering of a few mega projects to EPCs. Any prolonged delays could mean that one or more of those projects may slip into 2025 or later. It's still early, but we want to be transparent about potential near‐term risks. We will keep you apprised as the year progresses. This potential near‐term risk…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] First question comes from Ryan Pfingst with B. Riley Securities. Please go ahead.

Ryan Pfingst

Analyst

Hi. Good afternoon, guys. For the 200 million that you referenced, Bob, potentially coming from those projects, in Algeria, would that be upside to guidance for this year or is that somewhat baked in here?

Bob Mao

Analyst

No, that's included in our forecast.

Ryan Pfingst

Analyst

Okay. And to kind of piggyback off that, could you talk a little bit about visibility into the back half? It looks like the year is off to a good start in terms of meeting your expectations, but just wondering if you could provide any color as to how much of the expected 2023 revenue might come from orders that you already have in-hand whether that's some most or close to all?

Joshua Ballard

Analyst

I can answer that, Ryan. It's Josh. I mean, as is typical, we have good visibility from our mega project perspective. So, we haven't necessarily signed all those projects, but everything is very either signed or very progressed in negotiations and so forth. So, we'll be wrapping that up sooner rather than later for the year, but OEM and aftermarket, we certainly never signed everything this soon. Their a much shorter length in time in terms of the negotiated project and so forth, six months or less typically. So, we'll still be signing those projects. So, I wouldn't say we have the entire year, but in terms of pipeline, our existing backlog and where we see the second quarter and so forth going forward, we feel pretty confident in this year.

Ryan Pfingst

Analyst

Great. Thanks guys. I'll hop in the queue.

Operator

Operator

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Next question comes from Pavel Molchanov with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Pavel Molchanov

Analyst · Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Thanks for taking the question and interesting comments about the opportunity in Morocco. When I look geographically at your desalination business mix. It's basically two-thirds Middle East, only 20% Asia. As we're watching these record heat waves in places like China, Thailand, Vietnam, Vietnam I'm curious if you're getting more incoming interest from that part of the world versus the more traditional Middle Eastern market?

Bob Mao

Analyst · Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Not yet seeing any more than we already anticipated. China as we talked about last time, this 14th five-year plan is the first time China officially recognized a diesel as an alternative to address the water stress, whereas China traditionally relied on sending excess water from the South via [Canal] [ph] to the North. Of course, this past summer, maybe that's what you're referring to, a drought in the Sichuan along the Yangtze River, but it's a planned economy. Changing plans takes a little time. [Thailand] [ph], we have not seen any uptick that we didn't anticipate.

Pavel Molchanov

Analyst · Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Okay. Let me follow-up on the refrigeration. I think you said, breakeven for this product in the second quarter. Is that faster than what you originally anticipated?

Joshua Ballard

Analyst · Raymond James. Please go ahead.

No, we didn't say breakeven for refrigeration that was for the business overall, Pavel, based on where we're seeing the revenues come-in in Q2 at the higher end of our forecast.

Pavel Molchanov

Analyst · Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Okay. Understood. So maybe, I guess specific to refrigeration, I think last year you were suggesting that it should reach breakeven sometime in 2023, how likely is that looking?

Bob Mao

Analyst · Raymond James. Please go ahead.

It's probably challenging, due to the fact that the whole refrigeration industry is facing a demand far exceed the supply for traditional configurations. So, therefore the OEMs have their hands full – more than their hands full shipping the CO2 without our energy saving devices. And this is an issue, which means we have to redouble our sales effort to generate greater demand pool. So that there will be end users start demanding having our PX energy saving devices. For example, the Canadian supermarket who is installing this – our PX to address the heatwave pipes, the spikes, I'm sorry, was an end user generate demand, not an OEM pushed solution. And of course, this increases in the short-term go to market expense.

Pavel Molchanov

Analyst · Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Got it. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Okay. There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the floor over to James for closing remarks.

James Siccardi

Analyst

Thank you, Stacy, and thank you everyone for joining us today. Have a good evening.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and thank you for your participation.