Earnings Labs

Eversource Energy (ES)

Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Fri, Feb 5, 2016

$68.48

-0.15%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to the Eversource Energy Fourth Quarter Earnings Call. My name is John, and I'll be our operator for today's call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. Please note, the conference is being recorded. And I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Jeff Kotkin.

Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thank you, John. Good morning and thank you for joining us. I'm Jeff Kotkin, Eversource Energy's Vice President for Investor Relations. We posted slides last night on our website that we will reference during our remarks today. And as you can see on slide one, some of the statements made during this investor call may be forward-looking as defined within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risk and uncertainty, which may cause the actual results to differ materially from forecasts and projections. Some of these factors are set forth in the news release issued yesterday. Additional information about the various factors that may cause actual results to differ can be found in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2014 and our quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the three months ended September 30, 2015. Additionally, our explanation of how and why we use certain non-GAAP measures is contained within our news release and the slides we posted on our website under Presentations and Webcasts and in our most recent 10-K and 10-Q. Turning to slide two, speaking today will be Tom May, our Chairman, President and CEO; Lee Olivier, our Executive Vice President for Enterprise Energy Strategy and Business Development; and Jim Judge, our Executive Vice President and CFO. Also joining us today are Werner Schweiger, our Executive Vice President and COO; Phil Lembo, our Vice President and Treasurer; Jay Buth, our Vice President and Controller; and John Moreira, our Vice President of Financial Planning and Analysis. Now, I'll turn over the call to Tom and slide three. Thomas J. May - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning,…

Leon J. Olivier - EVP-Enterprise Energy Strategy and Business Development

Management

Okay. Thank you, Tom. I'll provide you with brief update on our major investment initiatives and then turn the call over to Jim. Let's start with Northern Pass and slide seven. In December, the Hampshire Site Evaluation Committee, or SEC, determined that our Northern Pass application is complete and commenced the formal review process. As part of that process, the SEC held five public information sessions on the project in January and will hold another round of public hearings later this quarter. Simultaneously, we continue to respond to questions about the project from the multiple state agencies that are participating in the review. As you can see from slide eight, we're expecting the Hampshire SEC to vote on the Northern Pass, consistent with its current schedule, which concludes on December 19. In parallel, the U.S. Department of Energy will host a series of four public hearings on its draft Environmental Impact Statement or EIS on Northern Pass the week of March 7. Two of them will be held jointly with the New Hampshire Site Evaluation Committee. Written comments on the draft EIS are due to the DOE by April 4. We expect the DOE to finalize the EIS in the second half of this year and anticipate a Presidential Permit issue soon after than the Hampshire SEC process has concluded. That time table has not changed and we ensure that all relevant conditions of the SEC decision will be reflected in the Presidential Permit as well. We continue to feel very good about the review process on Northern Pass. We're receiving strong support for the project both inside and outside of New Hampshire. At the first public information session last month in Franklin, New Hampshire, where the DC to AC converter station will be located, we received significant support from…

Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thank you, Jim. And I'm going to turn the call back to John just to remind you how to enter questions. John?

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We'll now begin the question-and-answer session.

Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

All right. Thank you, John. First question this morning is from Greg Gordon from Evercore ISI. Good morning, Greg.

Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI

Analyst

Good morning, guys. So, this whole bonus depreciation thing is a high-class problem, obviously significantly increases the cash flow even though it's a bit dilutive to rate base growth. But I'm just wondering, you said that the vast majority of the reduction in the growth rate is due to bonus and yet you've also significantly increased your capital expenditure budget, so, algebraically, that means that the overall growth rate is more than 1% lower before the offset of the higher capital plan. So, is bonus, in fact, the sole driver of that or are there other factors? James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: No. I would say that bonus is the sole driver of it. The numbers that I mentioned, Greg, $300 million a year, obviously the pancaking impact of that, when you look at 2015, 2016, 2017 and beyond, has a significant impact on our cumulative deferred income taxes, and we're obviously a purely regulated T&D company. So, it does impact our ability to earn. And I've seen a number of estimates out there where companies have – analysts have estimated that it's about a 1% increase on a company – decrease on a company like Eversource. I would tell you this that, as you well know, that we have a long track record, Tom and I, 20 years of delivering on guidance either meeting or exceeding it. And the other thing that I've mention is we tend to provide data to the Street, forecasted data, capital expenditure data, that ties out to the dollar to projects that we have in the queue. So, we have obviously updated the forecast for the projects that we have and the impact has been of a 5% to 7% growth rate is a better guidance for Wall Street, a more credible guidance than the 6% to 8% that we had previously. That being said, I'll tell you that a year ago, we didn't provide capital expenditure numbers for Access Northeast and look how long that project – how far along that project has come. Three months ago at our third quarter call, we didn't provide any guidance. Clean Energy Connect wasn't even mentioned as a project and we now have that before the regulator to be approved. So, we tend to find projects going forward. We don't put them into our plan until they're real. So, I think we have a very credible 5% to 7%, with some upside going forward.

Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI

Analyst

Yeah. I agree. One last question. Are you electing to take bonus on Northern Pass, or are you going to choose to not take bonus on that particular project? James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: We have customers paying for it and it's largely a FERC type of formula and cost recovery mechanism. So, we would expect the benefits of bonus depreciation to be shared with customers.

Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI

Analyst

Okay. Thank you, guys. Have a good morning.

Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Yeah. Thanks, Greg. Next question is from Dan Eggers from Credit Suisse. Good morning, Dan. Daniel L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Hey. Good morning, guys. Just following up on Greg's question on the bonus depreciation side. You think about in 2016 and 2017, you'll bring in about $900 million of bonus cash and then you've got the proceeds from the New Hampshire sale or securitization coming in probably early 2017. How are you guys thinking about kind of using that incremental pile of cash relative to old expectations where you didn't need equity without having that cash coming? James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Well, we still don't need equity. And that's obviously cash that can be redeployed towards projects. That's capital. That's shareholder capital. And if it turns out that we can't redeploy it towards new projects, we certainly would consider giving it back to shareholders in the form of increased dividends or more effectively through a share buyback, if need be. Daniel L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): I mean, I guess, how are you accounting for that extra cash in the growth rate? Are you assuming that it kind of accumulates on the balance sheet or is that – is there some redeployment assumption in the underlying growth rate? James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: In the underlying growth rate, we actually are very, very cash strong. And so, again, absent another project to invest it in, we assume a share buyback would be the best application of it. Daniel L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Okay. And I guess, Tom, the merger has been very successful for you, guys. You've executed on what you had laid…

Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thanks, Dan. Our next question is from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from UBS. Good morning, Julien.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

Good morning. Can you hear me?

Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Yeah, absolutely. Thomas J. May - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

Excellent. So, I wanted to dig in a little bit more on the Clean Energy Connect. Admittedly, I know it might be challenging. But first, just to get a sense, is this connected to firm renewables back in New York? Just could you talk about the project a little bit just in terms of how we should think about it? And then on the financials, if you can elaborate, is it accruing AFUDC, whatever construct you've devised with your partners? And then in terms of the return, would it be fair to continue to say, this is a FERC like return on a typical equity ratios we think about, at least preliminarily the $400 million you've contemplated?

Leon J. Olivier - EVP-Enterprise Energy Strategy and Business Development

Management

Yeah, Julien. This is Lee Olivier. Yeah, in regards to the project itself, it really is designed around getting existing run-of-river renewable plans that are in place in New York and building new wind, and as you can see from our partners from Iberdrola, EDP would build new wind. And getting that combined power, so you can firm up the wind with the hydropower such that when you have a transmission line going into New England, you have 100% deliverability into the region and you have very, very high capacity factors of utilization across that line to the extent of 80% to 90% utilization. It would accrue AFUDC and it would garner FERC-like returns.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

Got it. All right. Excellent. And then just turning over to the conversions – the oil conversion side of the equation, I'd just be curious, you talked about continued strength, particularly on the back of your reasonable winter thus far, moderate, shall we say, but what's the normalized trend of late? I'd be curious, given how low oil prices are of late, is there something to be concerned about as we think about a more normalized weather pattern for the next 2016, 2017 winter that we should be thinking about a slowdown at all? James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: No. I mean, the forecast that we've provided on slide 23, we continue to be comfortable with. If you look at each of the years, 2013, 2014, and 2015, we exceeded the targets that we have provided. And even given the dramatic reduction in oil prices that existed for most of 2015, we have great opportunity, primarily because of a lack of penetration down in Connecticut. It's significantly underpenetrated and we feel pretty good about our target for 2016 and achieving it as well.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

So, perhaps said differently, the penetration level was such that there are still clear economic benefits for customers to continue to switch at the same pace they have, or at least you're confident in the ability to garner the same conversion pace that you have historically? James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: I think the payback for a conversion is more challenging than it was a year or two ago, but we've got some more aggressive marketing and the carbon benefits of gas versus oil are compelling to customers as well. So, I'm not going to suggest that it's not more challenging than it was a year or two ago, but we still feel pretty good about our ability to execute. Thomas J. May - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: It's interesting. Anything is new construction anywhere on our territory. They want natural gas for heating. It actually adds value to the house. There are studies that shown that the houses are selling for $10,000 or $20,000 more, if instead of having an old oil tank on your property, you have a pipe that without trucks pulling up and down your street. But we're seeing lots of communities that are actually encouraging us to come in and help them reduce their carbon footprint. We call it the three Ps. They don't require us to make permit fees. They don't require us to have police details, and what's – on paving. They don't make us pave curb to curb. Typically when you go in and cut a street to put a pipe down in for a neighborhood, they want you to pave curb to curb. They'll say, hey, we'll let you patch that cut and therefore reduce the price to come in and bring this gas to our neighbor. So, interestingly, the demand is still there, but as you say, the payback for a customer is quite different and therefore, you have to find different ways to turn it into a monthly payment rather than a big lump sum.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

And then last, a quick clarification, is the 5% to 7%, the Clean Energy Connect, is it in there and how do you think about it? James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: It is in there, but again, the CapEx spend there is $18 million to $21 million. So, it doesn't move the dial much one way or another. It's a small piece of the financials out in 2018, 2019.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

Fair enough. Thank you.

Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thanks, Julien. Next question is from Travis Miller from Morningstar. Good morning, Travis.

Travis Miller - Morningstar Research

Analyst

Good morning. Thank you. I was wondering as we talk more about these renewables, they look three to five years out, obviously you have a lot of transmission spend opportunity. So I was wondering if you could elaborate on potential upside for the distribution side of the electric. Distribution side, is there upside in your plan? Is there additional in terms of integrating all of that renewable energy that will come in through the transmission projects? James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Sure. Travis, this is Jim. We mentioned that we spend about $1.2 billion a year on the distribution system, that's gas and electric, but in particular, we have a slide that references this grid modernization plan. It's $430 million of spending over the next five years. Included in there is advanced sensing technology, a next generation fault circuit indications, and those sorts of things, but a good part of the spend there has to do with making it easier for distributed resources to be tapped into the system and provided for. So, that's a filing that's before the regulator in Massachusetts currently and we expect the plan to be approved later this year.

Travis Miller - Morningstar Research

Analyst

Okay. That's all I had. Thank you.

Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thanks, Travis. Our next question is from Shar Pourreza from Guggenheim. Good morning, Shar.

Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Partners

Analyst

Hey, Jeff. Hey. Good morning, everyone. Thomas J. May - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning.

Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Partners

Analyst

So just real quick question on the growth. So, you kind of had the regulatory mechanisms at the utilities and you sort of assume Northern Pass and Access Northeast are on schedule. So, what's sort of the driver to get you to the top end or exceed your updated growth trajectory, or sort of how should we think about the bottom or top end of that range? James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Well, what I would say, Shar, is that, obviously, if all the projects go forward as planned, we would be higher in that 5% to 7% range, but I do think that we have some flexibility in that range, such that if one of the projects didn't go forward, I think we'd still be able to achieve the lower end of that range.

Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Partners

Analyst

Okay. Got it. So if your projects are on schedule, you can essentially hit the mid-point of your old range? James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Or beyond.

Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Partners

Analyst

Excellent. Thanks.

Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thanks, Shar. Next question's from Mike Lapides from Goldman. Good morning, Mike. Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Hey, guys. Good morning. A couple of housekeeping-related questions. First of all, in 2016 guidance, what are you assuming for O&M cost management on controllable O&M? James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Michael, this is Jim. We are basically providing estimates of 2% to 3% long-term and there'll be some variability year-to-year. We're not giving a spot-specific number for 2016, but you've seen our performance to-date and you can assume that that 2% to 3%, you can take to the bank. Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Well, I mean, actually, you've done a really good job of just completely blowing right past that 2% to 3% a year in the first couple of years post-merger. Just trying to get my arms around what would drive a fundamental slowdown in the O&M cost savings or are you just being a little bit on the conservative side about your ability to manage cost structure post-merger? James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Well, we've been giving guidance historically of 3% to 4% and we've exceeded it. So 2% to 3%, I guess, reflects a little bit of a slowdown, but we do see ample opportunity. Eventually, you go from merger synergies, which I think we've largely achieved, into achieving savings just by good cost discipline across the organization. And that's the phase that we're in now. Tom and I mentioned some of the IT system conversions that are taking place currently that will fuel savings going forward. And our operations area, the standardization that takes place is assured to provide us some additional savings. So we feel good about it, but obviously…

Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thanks, Michael. Next question's from Praful Mehta from Citi. Good morning, Praful.

Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Good morning. Hi, guys. So, I just had two quick questions. One was on Northern Pass. And just want to understand, if there were delays in the Northern Pass, CapEx plan and implementation, are there other levers to fill the hole in terms of EPS, or is there going to be an impact to EPS, as you see it today? James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah. This is Jim, Praful. As I mentioned, we come up with projects that we don't even have on the drawing board. We're looking at other projects currently. And you're asking me if Northern Pass, the $1.6 billion, was significantly delayed, what would we backfill it with? I would assume that by the time we get out to 2017, 2018 and 2019, there will be new projects, but right now, they have not been defined. I haven't reached the stage where we would include them in our plan.

Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Fair enough. Got it. And secondly, in terms of capital allocation, you've talked about excess the cash that you have, the bonus depreciation, and one of the options could be share buybacks. From a timing perspective, how do you see that decision playing out? Do you kind of wait and see if you have new projects in 2016, 2017? And if you don't, and if you have excess cash, you do the buyback? I'm just trying to figure out how does that sequence of events go and when does that decision take place to actually do buybacks. James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah. We will look at that on a year-to-year basis. Obviously, we have not announced a share buyback. We don't anticipate one in 2016. We think we have potential application of this excess cash in years beyond that. But if we don't, it's clearly capital that deservedly would go back to shareholders and we consider a share buyback, but it's basically a year-to-year decision.

Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Got you. Thank you, guys.

Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thank you. Our next question's from Steve Fleishman from Wolfe. Good morning, Steve.

Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC

Analyst

Hi. Good morning. Just briefly in the context of the bonus depreciation and the plan that you're giving us, maybe you could just talk about how the balance sheet or cash flow metrics look under this plan as it is versus maybe you had before to kind of fill in the whole picture. James J. Judge - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Well, we certainly think that the cash flow numbers improved, given the bonus depreciation, the lack of tax payments that need to be made. We fully expect to maintain the strong single-A credit that we have achieved to-date. So, I think the credit metrics would reflect that.

Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Jeffrey R. Kotkin - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

All right. Thanks, Steve. We don't have any more questions this morning, so we want to thank you very much for joining us. If you have any follow-up questions, please give us a call. Thanks and enjoy the rest of the winter. We'll see you at a couple of the conferences.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. That concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.