Erik Alexander
Analyst · Rob Stevenson with Macquarie
Thank you, Mike. It's my pleasure to be here to report our second quarter operating results and give our view of the second half of the year. The rent growth momentum that's started to build in Essex's portfolio during the first quarter of this year accelerated during the second quarter in the Pacific Northwest and Northern California and remains robust today. While Southern California's revenue results were more muted, they were still favorable on a sequential basis, and gains in rent accelerated the most in June and have continued at a healthy clip in July. Occupancy for the portfolio was essentially flat for the quarter, but we saw a dip in June as peak demand season began in earnest and we continued to ask for higher rents across the board. As stated on our first quarter call, we've achieved market rent growth earlier in the year than initially forecasted. Therefore, we have revised our economic forecast up for 2011. You can review these details on S-15 of the supplement, but of note is an increase in our portfolio rent growth assumptions from 5% to 7.5%, with the biggest gains in the Pacific Northwest and Northern California and a reduction in our job growth forecast for Los Angeles. I will comment on these items along with supply expectations later when I summarize each region. The continued acceleration of rent growth throughout the second quarter gives us good reason to believe in a sustainable recovery and better results for 2011 in all of our markets. The actual rent growth results have improved every month since March and are on pace to continue that trend in August. In the nation's leading markets, it is no surprise that the Pacific Northwest and Northern California lead the charge for Essex. What we see that should help our continued growth is a more recent improvement in Bay Area rents outside of the Silicon Valley, where 60% of Essex's Bay Area portfolio is located and healthier rent gains throughout much of Southern California. Overall, the Essex portfolio saw market rents increase 11% since the second quarter of 2010 and 4.7% over the first quarter. As expected, this improvement in market rents has resulted in a growing loss to lease. At the end of the second quarter, this number stood at 6.8% of scheduled rent compared to 4.1% at the end of last quarter. This obviously represents a growing opportunity to increase revenue. Renewals continued to grow during the quarter and were at 4.9% higher than expiring leases. May renewal results eclipsed 5%, but June renewals didn't quite reach the 6% as expected. This is due in part to some residents with larger increases choosing to move. However, July saw a 6.6% gain in renewal rents, and the first 1,200 renewals in August have posted a gain well over 7%. Average rent gains on new lease transactions were 8.1% during the quarter, but June had a 10.2% gain over expiring leases compared to April at 5.9%. July results were comparable with a 10.8% increase over expiring rate. Again, the Pacific Northwest and Northern California are still leading the overall revenue growth for Essex but Southern California results have improved from 3.6% in April to 7% in July. So again, we have confidence that Southern California is gaining steam and should contribute to a better second half. Therefore, with the growing loss to lease, we plan to take advantage of the expected decline in occupancy and push rents throughout the portfolio during the high demand period through September. While the financial occupancy was essentially flat at 96.9% compared to the first quarter, physical occupancy had actually dropped to 95.9% at the end of June with a 6.5% availability and 95.5% occupancy, with a 6.7% net availability at the end of July. For reference, physical occupancy was more than a point higher last year at this time. The strategy will be to maintain this level of availability in an attempt to gain consolidated increases greater than 8% on expiring and new leases for the remainder of the year, with a watchful eye on the relationship between scheduled rent gains and financial occupancy during the fourth quarter. When executed properly, this approach will allow Essex to post sequential gains in revenue for the third and fourth quarters, achieve our revised revenue guidance for 2011 and put the company in a strong position for revenue growth in 2012. So although our revenue results were respectable and look promising for the second half of the year, the spike in expense growth during the second quarter put a damper on sequential NOI growth. I don't believe there's any reason to be alarmed as expense timing can often be lumpy. Onetime repair and maintenance items, especially duct and gutter cleaning, tree trimming, landscape enhancement, along with an 11% increase in turnover and an increase in actual turn cost accounted for most of the second quarter rise in expenses. Distinct from our redevelopment program, we have completed modest upgrades in apartments upon turn in an effort to meet market expectations for these units getting higher rent. This practice will continue as appropriate but is more prevalent among units vacating after a longer-term residency. One element of expenses that will remain is the wage increase that was effective April 1 following a 2-year salary freeze. However, modified office hours, shared responsibilities and centralizing some of our processes will moderate this expense impact. Given a lower-than-expected increase in utilities for the rest of the year, further savings in property taxes and reduced turnover assumption, we actually expect annual expense growth for 2011 to be lower than initial expense guidance. Expense control will continue to be a focus for Essex. We have expanded our internal resource management group recently to intensify focus on reducing utility consumption. We've also increased our attention on aggregated purchasing and vendor consolidation. These efforts will bear fruit in the second half of the year and continue to help us manage operating expenses throughout 2012 and beyond. Finally, we continue to invest in technology to help us improve efficiencies, enhance customer service and ultimately reduce costs. Currently, there are 10 active initiatives in various stages of deployment at Essex, including centralized invoice processing, check scanning, resident portal, customer surveys, online renewal capabilities. Given evolving technologies and a deserving industry experience, we think our patience will lead to improved efficiency and expense reductions at a lower cost to implement. On our new lease-up activities, these all remained on track with Skyline, Muse and Allegro now stabilized. Via, 284 units under development in Sunnyvale, is off to a phenomenal start, with Phase I 96% leased and 67% occupied. Phase II is already 35% leased and move-ins will begin next month. Santee Village, Bellerive and Reveal are all leasing within plan. Now to comment on the region. Starting with Seattle. Seattle leads all markets for Essex. Essex market rents were up 6.6% sequentially and nearly 12% since the first of the year. We are now only 3% from the previous peak in 2008. At the end of June, occupancy was 95.8% among stabilized assets with a 6% availability. The job picture continues to be strong in Seattle. And related to our improved forecast, Boeing added some 4,000 jobs since the end of last year. Additionally, the number of Microsoft employees moving in to our communities since last quarter has increased by 225 residents. Multi-family supply picked up 250 units but remains at a low 0.4% of total stock. In Northern California, Essex market rents in the Bay Area were up 5.7% sequentially and 9.7% since the first of the year. During the quarter, market rents in San Francisco and Santa Fe have actually crossed over their previous peak in 2008 by about 3%. At the end of June, occupancy was 96.3% with a 6% net availability. Our job forecast is up, and for the first time since 2007, all of our Northern California regions are adding jobs. Office and R&D absorption remained strong in the region with San Francisco MSA leasing an additional 800,000 square feet of office space and 1 million square feet of industrial space during the quarter, while San Jose added 500,000 square feet of office space and 2.5 million of R&D space. Collectively, that equates to more than 6 million square feet of absorbed commercial space during the past 4 quarters in San Jose. Finally, in Southern California, as expected, Southern California trails our other markets, but Essex market rents were up 2.9% sequentially and 4.8% since the first of the year. San Diego has actually led the charge this year posting a 5.2% gain in market rents since January. While San Diego rents have virtually returned to their 2008 peak, Los Angeles and Orange County still have about 4% to 5% to go to close the gap before reaching their prior peak. At the end of June, Southern California was occupied at 95.5% and had a 6.5% net availability. As mentioned earlier, we have revised our job forecast down by 16,000 positions for 2011. Although driven by losses in the government sectors, the reductions posted in business services will be a segment for us to watch closely. Multi-family supply was bumped up 300 units related to a delivery in the first quarter versus the fourth quarter of last year. However, we are tracking over 4,000 units under construction in our market with deliveries spread out through 2013. There is no material change in commercial space absorption during the quarter for Southern Cal. So in conclusion, we saw a fair amount of good news on the rental rate front, and we have to continue to execute wisely to convert those results at a meaningful NOI gain for the rest of this year and into 2012. With that, I will turn the call over to Mike Dance.