David Campbell
Analyst · Wolfe Research. Your line is open
So, Michael, I won't get ahead of the results in terms of the total renewables build-out plans. What I'll note is that beneath the surface of the water, there's been a ton of churn just because the combination of -- we didn't include the kind of renewables incentives you've seen in the IRA because their last RFP update, that law was in effect. So that's a big change. At the same time, we have bids from our all-source request for proposal that we can integrate the capital costs from that real-time market information in the IRP. That's -- most of those costs have trended higher. So, there's some offsets there. So beneath the service, there are significant changes in assumptions on commodity costs. We went through a lot of volatility in natural gas prices in the back half of the year, maybe we're back to low gas forever, but I think we're probably back to is that, hey, there's potential volatility in natural gas. So there are a lot of different factors, but when you sort of run them through the modeling process, which is still ongoing, it reinforces the value of renewables over time and a lot of it comes down to availability, particularly with supply chain challenges. So I would note that I think the robust support for renewables as being low-cost opportunity for customers in a long-term research plan that absolutely remains then in the near term, it's about supply chain and what that impacts in terms of resources that are available sooner rather than later. Now some elements that will change in the future, there's a number of different EPA builds. Our EPA rules that are in the mix right now, a couple of have been issued. Others have been press reports around. So I would not expect this IRP to reflect the greenhouse gas post rule, for example. That hasn't been formally issued yet. We've seen a lot of reports on it. Those kind of rules only further reinforce, I expect the relative value of adding lower-cost resources of the system, I think it will also further reinforce the importance of capacity. So, one thing from last year that has changed is -- and there's the benefits of having capacity or even higher. We've also seen increases in demand. So a long-winded way, I'm not giving you new numbers, but the dynamics that support the value to customers of adding renewables, the system are there, maybe some further impetus to capacity resources and then some supply chain issues in the near-term work through. But we're excited about the prospects, and we'll -- obviously, I have a comprehensive update when that's when we issue the IRPs.