Earnings Labs

European Wax Center, Inc. (EWCZ)

Q4 2023 Earnings Call· Wed, Mar 6, 2024

$5.82

+0.09%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to European Wax Center's Fourth Quarter and Full-Year Fiscal 2023 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a Q&A session. [Operator Instructions]. On the call today are David Willis, Chief Executive Officer; and Stacie Shirley, Chief Financial Officer; and Andrea Wasserman, Chief Commercial Officer. I would now like to turn the conference over to Stacie for opening remarks. Ma'am, you may begin.

Stacie Shirley

Analyst

Thank you, and welcome to European Wax Center's fourth quarter fiscal '23 earnings call. For today's call, David will begin with a brief review of our fourth quarter and full-year performance and discuss our priorities for fiscal 2024. Then I will provide additional details regarding our fiscal 2023 financial performance and our fiscal 2024 outlook. Following the prepared remarks, we will be available to take questions. Before we start, I would like to remind you of our legal disclaimer. We will make certain statements today, which are forward-looking within the meaning of the federal securities laws, including statements about the outlook of our business and other matters referenced in our earnings release issued today. These forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Please refer to our SEC filings as well as our earnings release issued today for a more detailed description of the risk factors that may affect our results. Please also note that these forward-looking statements reflect our opinions only as of the date of this call, and we take no obligation to revise or publicly release the results of any revision to our forward-looking statements in light of new information or future events. Also during this call, we will discuss non-GAAP financial measures, which adjust our GAAP results to eliminate the impact of certain items. You will find additional information regarding these non-GAAP financial measures and a reconciliation of these non-GAAP to GAAP measures in our earnings release. A live broadcast of this call is also available on the Investor Relations section of our website at investors.waxcenter.com. I'll now turn the call over to David Willis.

David Willis

Analyst

Thank you, Stacie, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. We ended 2023 on a strong note with fourth quarter performance in line with our expectations. We made progress on our strategy of expanding net new centers and driving in-center sales, which are both key to the European Wax Center growth story. Additionally, we were pleased with our ability to drive in-center reservations during the quarter, which capped off a solid year of growth for European Wax Center. In 2023, we opened 100 net new units, driven by our committed franchisees and are proud to have delivered meaningful top line and bottom line growth across the Board, generating $955 million in system-wide sales, $221 million in revenue and $76 million in adjusted EBITDA. Even in a challenging macroeconomic environment, the European Wax Center business model is consistent, anchored by the resiliency of our core guests whose commitment to their personal care routines did not waver throughout the year. Reflecting on my first six months as CEO, I could not be prouder of our teams. I want to thank our associates, franchisees, and in-center partners for their relentless focus on the work that drives results for our network and for living our values every day. This year, we're excited to celebrate the 20th anniversary of the European Wax Center brand. In 2004, our founders created this category of out-of-home waxing when they realized that waxing was an essential and recurring service often performed in salons as an afterthought. They introduced a high standard of professionalism by creating a business concept solely focused on a consistent, hygienic and efficient wax experience. 20 years later, we remain the undisputed leader in this industry. I believe that our leadership team and Board have advanced our founders' vision and set our company…

Stacie Shirley

Analyst

Thanks, David. Before I begin my remarks, I'd like to remind everyone that in some instances, I will speak to adjusted metrics on this call. And as I mentioned, you can find reconciliation tables to the most comparable GAAP figures in our press release and 10-K filed with the SEC today. Turning to our financial performance. As David mentioned, we delivered strong results in line with expectations, thanks in part to our core guests remaining committed to their waxing routines. Q4 system-wide sales increased 7.2% to $241.7 million and total revenue increased 5.2% to $56.3 million. Top line growth was primarily a result of unit expansion including 18 net new centers during the quarter. Same-store sales also increased 1.3%. From a profit standpoint, fourth quarter gross margin improved approximately 240 basis points to 72%, primarily due to favorability in our wholesale margins. Fourth quarter SG&A decreased 6% to $13.7 million and as a percent of revenue was 24.4% compared to 27.3% last year. This decrease was driven by lower technology and insurance costs for the quarter, partially offset by increases in payroll and benefits and expenses related to the pilot of laser hair removal. Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $19.3 million, an increase of 0.3% versus last year. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA margins decreased 170 basis points to 34.2%, driven by higher advertising, some of which was a shift into the fourth quarter and expenses related to our laser pilot. GAAP net income increased 59.1% to $3.6 million, while adjusted net income declined from $48.7 million in Q4 2022 to $6 million in Q4 2023, primarily due to the income tax benefit recognized in fiscal 2022 from the release of a valuation allowance on deferred tax assets. For the full-year, we opened 100 net new centers, approximately 10.6% unit growth, above…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. And our first question coming from the line of Randy Konik with Jefferies. Your line is now open.

Randal Konik

Analyst

Thanks a lot and good morning everybody. I guess, David, maybe we could get a little bit more of a deeper discussion on learnings from the brow test, the continued testing of laser. Maybe give us some perspective on what you're seeing in terms of lift in revenue per visit? What are you seeing in the differences in the type of guests entering to test those products? Are they already waxed customers that are now trying an additional service or vice versa? Just be really helpful to understand what you're seeing more specifically. And then as it relates to just long-term store growth, we're coming off a year where you had peak, I think unit openings ever showing a lot of underlying strength in demand from existing franchisees. What do you think is a kind of a doable long-term kind of thought around openings per year? Would we be thinking this 75% to 80% is kind of the most realistic to think through over the medium term? Just that would be helpful as well. Thanks guys.

David Willis

Analyst

Sure, Randy. Good to talk to you. Let me -- maybe take those in reverse order, if that's okay. As it relates to kind of our view on new units per year, the high-single digit outlook for 2024 is in line with our long-term growth algorithm. We're taking a deliberate approach on markets this year. As you mentioned Randy, we were well ahead of our high-single digit algo the last two years and we plan to focus on markets this year that have had less development activity over the last couple of years to allow those markets that were most active time to absorb those centers. We believe delivering the high-single digit unit growth after two years of exceeding these targets is candidly a testament to the strength of the overall model. We have a robust pipeline of licenses that gives us confidence and visibility to delivering high-single digit unit growth not just for 2024, but for 2025 and beyond. So overall, I think we continue to feel really good about kind of our unit growth algorithm. As it relates to laser, you may recall, we had a handful of initial objectives we wanted to pressure test in this pilot. One is can we attract more new guests to the brand with laser? The second is can we increase share of wallet from our existing waxing guests? And the overall assessment was can we enhance what we think are already robust four wall economics. So the trends to date have demonstrated encouraging results on all of these. The one franchisee that is participating in our pilot and the six center pilot up in New York has seen enough to want to extend to some additional centers in the same market. We still have some things to learn. So we do…

Randal Konik

Analyst

Super helpful. And just a quick follow-up. Just on capital structure, how do we -- you bought back nice amount of stock, you've fully completed the authorization on the share repurchase program. How do you want us to think about your optimal leverage ratios, your thirst for -- in the Board for future share repurchase activity? Just kind of remind us how you think about capital structure in the business given the healthy amount of strong and predictable cash flow? Thanks guys.

David Willis

Analyst

Yes. Thanks, Randy. So our asset light, capital light model does continue to enable us to generate meaningful free cash flow. So I think it really gives us flexibility. We will continue to evaluate best options on excess cash, how to deploy that and drive value for shareholders, we'll continue to evaluate that with our Board, Randy.

Randal Konik

Analyst

Thanks guys.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question coming from the line of Lorraine Hutchinson from Bank of America. Your line is now open.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Hi, this is Melanie on for Lorraine. I was just hoping you could break down the components of the 2024 comp guidance. What are the puts and takes to achieve the low end versus the high end? And is there any implication for price changes for the year? Thanks.

Stacie Shirley

Analyst

Yes. Hi, Melanie, this is Stacie, and thanks for being on the call. The guidance we gave was 2% to 5% for the year. And as we look at that over the course of the year, we'll ramp as the number of initiatives that David spoke about both in-center and from a marketing perspective as those continue to gain traction. And so think of that as you go through the year. Q1 will be the lowest and will continue to ramp. From a system-wide sales perspective, similarly Q1 will be our lightest quarter with Q2 being the heaviest quarter, which is similar to what we've seen in the past. From a pricing perspective, we have not baked in kind of an EWC corporate enterprise-wide guidance into our guide on the top line. However, as you know, our franchisees often take price where they think that it is appropriate. And we will continue to monitor is there opportunity whether that is again a broad based price increase recommendation or even service-by-service. But today, that's not necessarily baked into those projections.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Thank you.

Stacie Shirley

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. One moment please for our next question. And our next question coming from the line of Scot Ciccarelli from Truist. Your line is open.

Josh Young

Analyst

Hey. Good morning. This is actually Josh Young on for Scot. So another one on that '24 sales guidance. What have you guys baked in terms of trends for the different guest cohorts, specifically around that more episodic guest?

Stacie Shirley

Analyst

So we don't really break that out as far as how that would come into play on the guidance. But what I would tell you is as we exited Q4, I think from a macro perspective, not big changes, right? Not necessarily a deterioration, but not really an improvement. We had started to see an improvement in that, can call it, non-core guest as we entered into Q4 as a result of the number of things that we were doing. But we haven't really, we're not breaking that out. Our Wax Pass or core guests, right, which is Wax Pass and our routine guests, those continue to be very strong and their behavior has not changed as it relates to their spend and their frequency of visits. Again, that represents a little more than 75% of our total system-wide sales. Anything to add?

David Willis

Analyst

No. The only thing I would add to that, Josh, is as we had mentioned in our prepared remarks, we've onboarded this new media agency that's hyper focused on driving in-center reservations. We have a number of initiatives focused on driving new guests to the brand. And we also candidly in this macro environment believe we can control the things that we can control. So we're redeploying our field trainers to embed them in markets working with our franchisees to drive impact at the local level. Now, a number of those initiatives we would expect to see materialize in terms of tickets and transaction growth throughout the year. So we feel very good about our overall guidance, but it will build, we do expect that to build throughout the year.

Josh Young

Analyst

Yes, that's helpful. Thank you. And then one more follow-up, if you could talk about the trends you're seeing in terms of hiring, retaining wax specialists. And then any thoughts there as it relates to the outlook for '24?

David Willis

Analyst

You bet. So candidly, we ended the year, we think in a very healthy position in terms of overall network levels of staffing. The average center had the requisite number of -- target number of wax specialists, our operations and industry relations teams supporting our franchisees made some good headways throughout 2023 and actually elevating the mix of our more experienced waxers relative to our less experienced waxers. We've extended our beauty school partnership programs. I think we're now in 31 schools in eight different states. So overall, I think we feel like the network is adequately staffed and we are well positioned to support continued growth for the brand.

Josh Young

Analyst

Got it. That's helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question coming from the line of Korinne Wolfmeyer with Piper Sandler. Your line is open.

Korinne Wolfmeyer

Analyst

Hey, good morning team. Thanks for taking the questions. I'd like to touch a bit on the expectations for EBITDA for the year. I think you said about like excluding the laser investment about 130 basis points of margin expansion. Is that how we should be thinking about the expansion beyond 2024? And then as you continue to roll out laser, should we expect further investments in the out years to help support that, or is this more of a onetime thing here in 2024? Thank you.

Stacie Shirley

Analyst

So we haven't given guidance, obviously, outside of 2024. But I think as you think about that, right, we show typically, we show leverage on our SG&A. And then I would consider some level of margin expansion, gross margin expansion would be built into those numbers. So you would expect some level of expansion year-over-year for sure. From a laser perspective, the investments that we're making this year, some of those are just one time foundational type investments, some of which are also to build the infrastructure that we would need to expand this test and to further centers. So there would continue to be investments, but not I wouldn't assume at this level.

Korinne Wolfmeyer

Analyst

Very helpful. Thank you. And then if you could just touch a little bit on what's driving the improvement that you saw in Q4 for those episodic guests. How much of it you think is attributed to your increased marketing efforts that you've been implementing versus just general market improvement? Thanks.

Andrea Wasserman

Analyst

Hi, thanks for the question. This is Andrea. I'll take that one. So when we think about our marketing efforts, it's really focused on two segments of our guest population. First and foremost, bringing new guests to the brand, and secondarily, making sure that we're increasing the conversion of Wax Pass once we have guests in the fold. And so that really is our focus as opposed to the smaller segment of the guest population that is more episodic, as you said. That said, we do think about what will motivate that population, and we know which portion of that segment is responsive to promotions. We can be very tailored in doing that, so that we're not promoting more often than necessary or doing things in a blanket way and so some of that certainly does help as we think about the right times and tactics to use in increasing visits among that episodic guests.

Korinne Wolfmeyer

Analyst

Very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question coming from the line of Dana Telsey with Telsey Advisory Group. Your line is open.

Dana Telsey

Analyst

Hi, good morning everyone. As you think about market pricing, how do you think about it this year as compared to last year? How do you think of pricing whether it's for Wax Pass for different services and given that you set the market pricing any changes that you expect as we go through the year? And then I believe that one thing you are working on was launching a new center opening playbook in this upcoming first quarter. Where do you stand on that? What will be the differences? And is there a different cadence this year of the timing of new center openings versus last year? Thank you.

David Willis

Analyst

Hey, Dana, this is David. Let me start with the NCO playbook and then I'll hand it off to Andrea on pricing. So I think we've talked on prior calls that we've been studying new centers that have opened over the last couple of years that have performed the best. We've refined our playbooks. We've made additions. These are not wholesale new written playbooks, but in some cases we've dramatically modified. These modifications are informed with data to be a bit more prescriptive on the pre-opening spend requirements in the channels where our franchisees should spend, all of that is important to ensure that they open with the requisite number of new guests in their file on day 1. We also want to ensure post day 1 opening that they continue, what are the marketing activities and the digital channels they should be using to ensure they can continue to drive momentum. And then finally, we've analyzed kind of the both the headcount numbers and the levels of experience for our wax specialists and our center managers and we've seen so we're being more prescriptive on what does the staffing model need to look like in day 1, what does it need to look like in month three and month six. Ultimately, these centers have driven higher sales and greater predictability versus the average benchmark and their just faster revenue ramp. So we dialed out the playbook, we shared that this was coming with our franchisees at our Vegas Conference a couple of weeks ago. So we will be rolling this out across the network this year. As it relates to pricing, as you know Dana, we always evaluate this. And when we make a recommendation to our network, it's typically informed with either guest survey work or price elasticity work as it relates to the things we're looking at in 2024, I'll pass it over to Andrea to address that.

Andrea Wasserman

Analyst

Sure. Hi, Dana. So in thinking about what the network needs to hear from us in terms of pricing insights, we're obviously looking at past trends for how the market has reacted, how our target audience has reacted to price changes. We're looking at the latest transaction trends, certainly thinking about our costs as well as very, very importantly four wall margins for our franchisees and then also thinking about what the rest of the market may be doing and what elasticity as David said, we think that there is at this time. So we're always looking at that, always pulling in a wide array of data points to determine what insights we want to provide to our franchisees. Dana, I think you also asked the question about the timing of the new centers. And so it will be back half weighted, a third roughly in the first half and two thirds in the second half. And then we also talked about Q1 that we expect to open seven net centers.

Dana Telsey

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. One moment for next question. And our next question coming from the line of Simeon Gutman from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Simeon Gutman

Analyst

Hey good morning everyone. First question, Stacie, the extra weeks that we had, are you suggesting that sales and EBITDA are the right way that they were even or is there a greater EBITDA contribution? And if you could just remind us why do we have 53 weeks, two years in a row?

Stacie Shirley

Analyst

So the contribution, yes, I think rough estimates is about an average, an average fourth quarter week is what we're using for kind of top line and bottom line guidance. And the reasons we had it for two years, I was not here for that. David, this was just get on to a regular retail calendar. This first year was do you recall what that?

David Willis

Analyst

I think the second year was just aligned with everyone else's retail calendar.

Simeon Gutman

Analyst

Okay. No worries. It's a minor question. The other one, this is back to the 2.5 comp, which you've gotten a lot of different ways because if 75% of your business is relatively recurring, trying to think about it in different buckets, meaning is the Wax Pass customer, is it frequency or is there some ticket? I know you mentioned we're not -- we don't explicitly think about it that way or ticket. Trying to understand what is driving the business. Is it mature versus immature stores? Any other breakdowns that you can provide?

Stacie Shirley

Analyst

Well, so as is typical when we look at our comp, I mean the ramping centers are the biggest driver of that comp as we move into the 13th month. So that we would expect to be continue in just the New Year.

David Willis

Analyst

No, Randy, I mean, you're familiar enough with our model. Ramping is usually has an outsized impact on the overall comp in terms of the number and we're expecting this year that the ramping centers will be a bigger contributor to the comp than the mature centers.

Simeon Gutman

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

David Willis

Analyst

Sure.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question coming from the line of John Heinbockel with Guggenheim Securities. Your line is open.

John Heinbockel

Analyst

So guys want to start with, it looks like adjusting for the extra week, right, that AUV sort of flat in '24 versus '23. So my guess down in the first half, up in the second. Would that be right? And when I think about the drivers of that, is that more the units that have opened in the last two years picking up or better performance from centers this year? And then I guess the last part of that, right, if I think about maybe David touch on the maturation curve, right, because I think normally you've opened up at maybe 450 in year 1. Can we now do you think with the playbook we can now do 500, 500 plus in year 1?

David Willis

Analyst

I would tell you, John, on this most recent point on NCOs, that would be the goal. We want to ramp faster. We are not immune to the elevated construction costs. When we went public in 2021, the average build out cost was 350, that's crept up to 400 to 450. I think our development teams have done a great job value engineering cost out of the fixtures to absorb -- partially absorb some of the elevated construction costs. But when you factor that in with elevated labor costs in various markets, we want to ramp faster. And the 450 has been our historical ramp. Candidly, that's been consistent cohort to cohort to cohort. But the purpose of the NCA playbook is to drive the average center to be north of that, so our franchise owners can get to the very attractive cash on cash returns faster. In terms of your questions on AUVs being flat in terms of the overall drivers, I would say we're focused on as we outlined in our prepared remarks, new guest acquisition across the brand for every center in driving greater rate and frequency throughout the system. So if I put aside the ramping centers, which you can kind of get lost in how much of that is just natural ticket growth because of the maturation. We do expect to drive our mature centers continue to drive strong four wall profitability, but the initiatives that we've outlined for 2024, we expect to drive both more tickets, more guests into those centers and a greater spend from the average ticket within those centers. So I don't know if that's directly addressing your question, John, but our goal this year with the priorities and initiatives that we've outlined is to drive improvement in what we think are already robust four well economics, but to drive improvement in our mature centers through both the addition of new guests and increased spend from existing guests.

John Heinbockel

Analyst

Well, as a follow-up, you raised the point, right of higher CapEx, right. So I think about and I know you've done this in the past, like with the ancillary supplies. What else can you do to reduce the cost of operations right for a franchisee? And that kind of brings us back to I know you've been thinking about over the years, supply chain on wax and getting that cost down and passing that along. Is that now more urgent than it might have been or same?

David Willis

Analyst

I would say we've always viewed that with a high priority. I mean, we recently I think Stacie touched on this in her prepared remarks as we've been monitoring ocean freight. A couple of years ago, we put in place this freight surcharge to cover those elevated costs. Those have dropped down to a level where we could remove that and that should generate couple of million dollars on an annualized basis of savings. If you think about all the stuff that's not doesn't sound that exciting, but literally the wax applicator blades, the table paper, the gloves that we use that our aestheticians use in providing the service, we are constantly monitoring the market and working with our vendor partners to drive those costs down. On an individual service basis, it's a few cents here and there, maybe a dollar, but that ultimately adds up for our franchisees. So our supply chain team is candidly, it's not a new priority or an elevated priority. We've been doing this over the last several years, pre-COVID and post COVID, to ensure we can control what we can control to help our franchisees maximize profitability within their four wells.

John Heinbockel

Analyst

Thank you, guys.

David Willis

Analyst

Sure.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. Our next question coming from the line of Jonathan Komp with Baird. Your line is open.

Jonathan Komp

Analyst

Yes. Hi, good morning. David, I wanted to just follow-up a little further on the development plans. You touched on a few markets sort of digesting the growth the last few years. And could I just ask, are you seeing any divergences in the opening performance or volumes when you look across markets? And then as you think about the plans this year, just two-thirds back weighted on openings, can you comment on the visibility since that looks quite a bit different from last year?

David Willis

Analyst

Yes, I would say, Jon, thank you for the question. That overall performance as Heinbockel, I just mentioned in our question-and-answer session there. We continue to see AUBs at 4.50, but we want those to be higher to get our new centers faster to breakeven and a faster ramp to get to the very robust cash on cash returns. So we haven't seen a degradation in opening performance, but I would say we are motivated to open with faster ramps than what our -- than our brand has experienced over the last several years. I wouldn't look too much into the timing. The demand remains incredibly robust from both our existing partners, our growth partners, and we still have a number of folks looking for entry points into our network. So in terms of the timing and shaping of the NCOs, I think first quarter last year, we were at 34. There was no real magic to that delivering 34. And our seven that we've guided to this year, just given we're so close to the end of first quarter, we wanted to be a bit more prescriptive. But I wouldn't look too much into the one-third front half, two-thirds back half. That's truly where just kind of the timing of what we've slated to open this year is expected to fall.

Jonathan Komp

Analyst

Okay. That's really helpful. And one follow-up, if I could just ask on the laser initiative. It looks like your corporate started recruiting last month for a fairly senior role to lead that effort. So David, I'm wondering if you could just comment on what we should read into maybe the multiyear aspirations as you start to line up. It looks like maybe some more corporate resources behind that division?

David Willis

Analyst

Yes, Jon. Great of course. Great question. As I had mentioned earlier, we do view laser as an accretive and additive component to our core business. Our franchisee has been an amazing partner in terms of the effort and resources he's invested to help us pilot this in the handful of centers in New York. Candidly for our corporate staff, we have maintained focus on delivering our core business and supporting our franchisees in our core waxing business. So while this laser pilot we've given this a fair amount of air cover as we didn't want to catch anyone off guard that we're dabbling in this, but it's been a little bit of a night and weekends project for our corporate staff. We've seen enough in the trends to say it's certainly worth making a few investments in some dedicated resources to ensure we can further support this extended pilot. I hope that helps, Jon.

Jonathan Komp

Analyst

Yes, very helpful. Thanks again.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And I'm showing no further questions in the queue at this time. I would now like to turn the call back over to Mr. David Willis for any closing remarks.

David Willis

Analyst

Lydia, thank you for hosting today, and thank you everyone for your time on the call today. We look forward to speaking with you in the days and the weeks to come. Have a great day.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.