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Extreme Networks, Inc. (EXTR)

Q4 2013 Earnings Call· Tue, Jul 30, 2013

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Extreme Networks Q4 '13 Financial Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, John Kurtzweil, Chief Financial Officer. You may now begin.

John T. Kurtzweil

Analyst

Thank you, Nicole, and welcome to the Extreme Networks fiscal 2013 fourth quarter conference call. On the call with me today is Chuck Berger, Extreme Networks President and CEO. This conference call is being broadcast live over the Internet and is being recorded on behalf of the company. The recording will be posted on the Extreme Networks' website for replay shortly after the conclusion of the call and will remain there for the next 7 days. The presentations and the recording of this call are copyrighted property of the company, and no other recording or reproduction is permitted unless authorized by the company in writing. By now, you should have had a chance to review today's fourth quarter fiscal 2013 earnings press release. For your convenience, a copy of the release and supporting financial materials are available in the Investor Relations section of the company's website at www.extremenetworks.com. This conference call contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties, including statements regarding the company's expectations regarding its financial performance, the impact of its restructuring efforts, strategies, growth, customer demand, development of new products, customer acceptance of the company's products, customer buying patterns and spending patterns and overall trends and economic conditions in the company's markets. Actual results could differ materially from these projected in the forward-looking statements as a result of certain risk factors, including, but not limited to, a challenging macroeconomic environment worldwide; fluctuations in demand for the company's products and services; a highly competitive business environment for network switching equipment; the company's effectiveness in controlling expenses, including the company's cost restructuring efforts; the possibility that the company might experience delays in the development of new technologies and products; customer response to its new technologies and products; the timing of any recovery in the global economy; risks related to…

Charles W. Berger

Analyst

Thanks, John, and thanks, everyone, for joining us today. In addition to announcing the results for our fourth fiscal quarter and full 2013 fiscal year, I have now been with the company for 90 days and would like to share with you with what we will be focused on in the upcoming fiscal year and beyond. First, let's talk about the quarter. After a frankly disappointing Q3, we showed strong sequential quarter-over-quarter revenue growth, reporting revenues of $79.5 million, up 16.5% from the prior quarter and above the high end of our guidance, which was $77 million. At $0.07 non-GAAP EPS, we were also towards the high end of our guidance for earnings. Our balance sheet remains strong as cash and investments reached $205 million and we generated free cash flow of nearly $17 million. We also strengthened the management team significantly. Just yesterday, we announced that Ed Carney joined Extreme Networks as Executive Vice President of Products and Customer Success. Ed brings with him over 3 decades of experience in the networking industry, first with IBM and, more recently, with Cisco. Ed will be managing all of our product development, product planning and services. He will combine our product development organization with the service and support team to ensure that our product innovation is guided by the experiences and input from our large customer base. Ed is very well known and very respected across the networking industry. The fact that he chose Extreme has sent a strong message to the market that people who know this industry and know the technology that drives it are picking Extreme. The Raleigh Press described Ed, a former Army Ranger, as someone who knows only one direction, forward. Allison Amadia also joined the company as General Counsel, bringing with her over 20 years…

John T. Kurtzweil

Analyst

Thank you, Chuck. I will now provide a review of our fiscal Q4 financials and our financial target for our Q1 of fiscal 2014. Revenues for Q4 fiscal 2013 were $79.5 million, which exceeded our guidance of $73 million to $77 million. Sequentially, revenues were up from Q3 by $11.3 million or 16.5% and down $8.2 million or 9.4% year-over-year. The book-to-bill ratio was slightly over one for the quarter and we entered our first fiscal quarter of 2014 with a healthy backlog. During the quarter, we again experienced key component shortages, which we believe should be resolved in the early September time frame. Overall momentum in North America, Asia-Pacific and Latin America is also improving as we have seen a greater number of deals, as well as decision timelines that are moving back to more industry norms. In addition, we are beginning to see signs of stabilization in our EMEA region, most notably in the Northern region, but we are still concerned with the overall general economic conditions in that region. Product revenues were $64.5 million, an increase of 19.3% or $10.4 million sequentially. Service revenues were $15 million, an increase of 6.4% or $0.9 million, sequentially. America's revenues were $39.4 million and were up 40.7% or $11.4 million from Q3 FY '13. North America was a primary contributor to the increase in revenue as was expected during the time of summer upgrades for our campus products. The June quarter is typically our strongest quarter of the year. EMEA revenues were $26.6 million or down slightly 6.7% or $1.9 million from Q3 FY '13. Southern Europe, including the Middle East were the weakest regions with stronger results in the Eastern Bloc. Asia-Pacific revenues were $13.5 million, up 15.4% or $1.8 million sequentially from Q3 FY '13. We had solid…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from line of Christian Schwab of Craig-Hallum.

Christian D. Schwab - Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC, Research Division

Analyst

As we look to Lenovo relationship, our checks kind of suggest that they're going to have kind of bundled products for distribution kind of in the fall time frame, so call that September. How should we be thinking about -- obviously, it certainly depends upon Lenovo's success, but is there a broad range of which you guys are thinking about as far as the revenue opportunity driven by them over the next few years?

Charles W. Berger

Analyst

Christian, thanks for your comments and question. Frankly, we're being pretty cautious on how we look at the Lenovo partnership going forward. This is unchartered territory for both of us. I think we will begin to see activity in the fall into winter time frame as they ramp up their business and as they particularly increase their focus on rack-based products as opposed to tower-based products, which they traditionally sell in the SMB marketplace. So there's a number of variables here as Lenovo ramps the business. As they ramp to a higher end than they've typically sold to and then start to attach our networks to those solutions. So we've kept a pretty cautious estimate in our forecast for the upcoming year, but can't be more specific than that at this point.

Christian D. Schwab - Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC, Research Division

Analyst

And then following up on the other strategic partnership announcement with EMC joining Cisco and Brocade, with your switches into their storage platform, is that a sale that potentially will just be a line item for customers to choose which they want? How is the sale of your product into that going to work? Can you just kind of help us understand that?

Charles W. Berger

Analyst

Sure. We are, as John mentioned at our Worldwide Sales Conference, as we speak, and Lenovo actually presented to our sales team yesterday, and we are the partner they are focused on for networking in the server business between servers and between servers and the outside world. What they do on the storage part of this is yet to be seen, but I think the bulk of what they sell and resell as network solutions will certainly be Extreme Networks' products.

Christian D. Schwab - Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC, Research Division

Analyst

Excellent. And just a couple more questions, if I may. The migration from 1G to 10G is probably still in the early stages and 40G has kind of just begun, and it sounds like you have 100-gig product in the first half of next year. As we exit next fiscal year, is there any broadbrush percentage of product revenue you think will come from 10 gig and above?

Charles W. Berger

Analyst

We're certainly seeing the 1 gig to 10 gig transition gain momentum. We showed 90% year-over-year growth in our 10 gig revenues and 300% year-over-year growth for the 40 gig. We also saw tremendously at the high end, with the strongest quarter for our BDX8 data center solution. So as that transition is in its very early stages, we expect to see significant growth in that as a percentage of our business, but we haven't given specific guidance on that.

Christian D. Schwab - Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC, Research Division

Analyst

Great, and then last quarter, you guys kind of talked about a record backlog. This year, you've kind of described it as kind of healthy. Obviously, we shipped some of that backlog. Is the dialogue -- this will be my last question, by the way -- is the dialogue regarding backlog something you want to discuss now over these last couple of quarters because we're seeing component shortages, or is that a discussion we should expect in every conference call?

Charles W. Berger

Analyst

The dialogue regarding backlog is truly driven by the decision that was made in the March quarter, I will emphasize, before I got here, to fairly dramatically reduce inventories. And as demand happily grew it's taking us some time to catch up with that demand and rebuild our inventories, particularly, unfortunately, because lead times with our largest vendor, Broadcom, have extended fairly significantly over the past 90 days, going from roughly 18 weeks to north of 21, 22 weeks. That said, it was one of the first decisions I made when I joined the company to increase our inventory position given that we have very long-lived products. Roughly 80% of our components are common parts and we certainly have a cash position that can afford an investment -- a bigger investment in inventory. We expect by the end -- therefore, we expect that by the end of August, we will have caught up with demand and we'll come into September and the rest of the calendar year in a strong position to fill the demand that's out there.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Flanagan with Wedbush.

Ryan Flanagan - Wedbush Securities Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Wedbush.

I had a question on deal sizes. Last quarter, you mentioned you had some $1 million plus-size deals in the pipeline. Were these closed, are they still out there? And just maybe any color you can give, just generally around deal sizes will be appreciated.

Charles W. Berger

Analyst · Wedbush.

We had 2 or 3 deals during the quarter in the 7-figure category. We extended our business with Intel, with Samsung and with a couple other customers. So we're seeing large purchases from our larger customers, both repeat business or expansion business, as well as new business. That said, we still get a significant part of our business in the $10,000, $100,000 range. In fact, we're happily today announcing close to a dozen of those deals as part of our sales conference already in the quarter.

Ryan Flanagan - Wedbush Securities Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Wedbush.

Okay, great, that's helpful, guys. And then I also want to ask about some different verticals, maybe some points of strength and some points of weakness you're seeing out there.

Charles W. Berger

Analyst · Wedbush.

Sure. Particularly in our Data Center business, we have focused heavily on high-performance computing centers, with customers like Abbott Labs and we're now competing for the business with their spinoff Abbott B. Where in a number of ISXs -- IXPs, excuse me, around the country, including Moscow, London and a couple of the Asia-Pacific region. We are sitting here today in the Wynn Hotel of Las Vegas, who is a very large customer in the gaming industry, both here and in Macau, as is the Galaxy. So we've had a strong presence in the casino and gaming industry. Beyond that, it's pretty much across the board.

Ryan Flanagan - Wedbush Securities Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Wedbush.

Got it. And then I also want to ask, on competition, seeing some of the larger networking companies out there competing by bundling. Can you just give some commentary on what you're seeing in the competitive landscape? If any of that type of bundling activity has impacted you guys at all?

Charles W. Berger

Analyst · Wedbush.

To be honest with you, I have not heard that from our sales team. So if it was impacting us, I'm sure I would have. So I would say, at the moment, that has not been a factor in any of the deals that I've been brought in the loop on.

Ryan Flanagan - Wedbush Securities Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Wedbush.

Great, great. That's real helpful. Last one for me is, I want to ask about -- on the guidance there, it looks like revenue is guiding up a little bit, but EPS were about the same. Is there a margin impact we should be looking at on the guidance?

John T. Kurtzweil

Analyst · Wedbush.

No. In our forward-looking guidance, we have given guidance between 55%, 56% and...

Charles W. Berger

Analyst · Wedbush.

Gross margin.

John T. Kurtzweil

Analyst · Wedbush.

Gross margin. And as a little bit of a background is that all of our manufacturing, essentially all of it is outsourced to a company called Alpha Networks. And we don't typically see, what you would call, overhead absorption or factory absorption costs from quarter-to-quarter. So the margin is pretty stable, except for pricing or mix.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Ross Berner with PCO Capital.

Ross Berner

Analyst · PCO Capital.

Just a quick couple questions. Could you give us a rough estimate or take a stab at guiding to how much revenue got pushed out because of the inventory shortages and just how we could think about that a little bit?

Charles W. Berger

Analyst · PCO Capital.

Roughly, it was in the $4 million to $6 million of revenue orders that we know about. Frankly, my greater concern is the resellers who didn't place orders because they knew there wasn't product availability and filled demand with other products because they had their targets to meet for the June quarter and the month of June. So I think there's more business out there to be had once we had inventory than what we actually saw orders on the books for. But physical orders in hand for revenue as opposed to channel stocking orders was in that range.

Ross Berner

Analyst · PCO Capital.

Okay. And prior to your arrival, Chuck, last year, there's been lots of talk about pricing competition, and given just the falloff in demand, how tough the environment was. Given that you're starting to see demand pick up and you've already got into kind of 55% to 56% gross margins, are you seeing price not be an issue out there? I know what you said in terms of bundling products. But is pricing starting to feel better to you?

Charles W. Berger

Analyst · PCO Capital.

Well, this is a competitive marketplace, and I think pricing will always be a factor. And to the question earlier of the 1 gig to 10 gig and 40 and 100 gig transitions eventually, those switches, today, are at a higher price point, reflecting our higher capacity, but we expect we'll see erosion of that going into the future. The price competition has not been so intense as to materially reduce our gross margin. I think we're pretty disciplined at holding our price points and selling the added value that we have in our switches, both from the hardware perspective, as I mentioned, and the incredible characteristics we have there, as well as leveraging XOS as a key differentiator. So I think we will be able to hold margins in the hardware part of our business and I have a strong confidence, over time, in our ability to grow margins by monetizing our software assets better than we do today and increasing our service attach and renewal rates.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst · PCO Capital.

Okay. And my last question, Chuck, is the -- you talked kind of earlier on about being consciously optimistic about maintenance and service contracts as a kind of low-hanging revenue growth opportunity in terms of attachment rates and getting that higher. Can you give any more clarity or visibility, as you've come up on your 90th day now, what you're seeing out there in terms of that opportunity?

Charles W. Berger

Analyst · PCO Capital.

Well, again, as I mentioned my comments, it's one of the 5 or 6 key areas that we're going to focus on. It's one of the areas that Ed Carney will now manage, and he's got tremendous experience from running several different services organizations over his years at Cisco. So I think we are quickly building a credible capability to increase that. Today, we're at just slightly under 20% of tax rate on service products. And I think an industry standard is more in the upper 20s to low 30s. So that's where we need to be, and I think that will take several quarters to start to move in that direction and get to those kind of levels.

Operator

Operator

And I'm showing no further questions at this time. I'd like to hand the call back over to Chuck Berger for any closing remarks.

Charles W. Berger

Analyst

Thanks, everyone, and I appreciate, again, the interest in the company. This is the beginning of a very long path for me. I have been with the company for only 90 days. I will reiterate what I said on the last earnings call where I'd only been with the company 3 days, I think we have unbelievable potential with a very large customer base, with the best technology in the industry, both hardware and software and an incredibly strong financial position to back that up. That said, as I commented in the press release, there's room for far better execution in virtually everything we do. We've started to strengthen the management team towards that end, along with me joining, and we hope to continue to deliver improved results going into the future.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference call. This does conclude today's program. You may all disconnect. Have a great day, everyone.