Robert L. Shanks - Ford Motor Co.
Management
Yes. So, first of all, you shouldn't assume that our own point of view in terms of where the business is at the midpoint. But you are right. I mean you can calculate and figure out what the midpoint is and it would be further below the prior guidance of $9 billion and just a bit below which is where the top end is. But, please don't assume that's necessarily where we are in terms of our own single point estimate. But to the point you are raising, we are looking at the business both in terms of market factors and cost performance. We are trying to provide some recognition of the fact that we don't have control over everything and so there's two I would highlight. One is the commodity cost, which as I said, will be up based on what we think right now about $1.2 billion on a year-over-year basis. By the way, they were favorable last year by $900 million, so you can see how they can swing. The exchange is another factor that obviously will be what it's going to be and then frankly, the other one is around warranty expense and the potential for recalls. We don't forecast recalls. In fact we don't know, I personally don't know about recalls or others until the team has done the work and the data supports an action and then we move and we move very, very quickly. But as you are very well aware we have seen, some recalls that have had material financial impact over the last number of quarters, and so this provides us a little bit of space for that as well. But I would add, Brian, that a couple of things since the first quarter guidance that has taken place, actually three things, very specifically that we've accommodated in this range, one is higher incentives across all regions of the world, not really large in any one region, but when you add them up, it's a factor. The second is higher warranty expense already in North America and that's related to coverages. So, not recalls, but coverages, normal 36 months, 36,000 miles that sort of thing. Also something, some related to our extended warranty that we provide on some of our components. And then the last, which is an offset, which is what you raised is a favorable view of what Ford Credit is going to bring to the business. So those three together, in an absolute sense, will take you a bit lower than $9 billion, but contained within the upper end of the guidance. The rest of it is really a risk assessment.