Earnings Labs

First American Financial Corporation (FAF)

Q2 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Jul 23, 2015

$70.44

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings and welcome to the First American Financial Corporation Second Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. A copy of today's press release is available on First American's website at www.firstam.com/investor. Please note that the call is being recorded and will be available for replay from the company's investor website for a short time by dialing 877-660-6853 or 201-612-7415 and enter the conference ID 13614230. We will now turn the call over to Craig Barberio, Director of Investor Relations, to make an introductory statement. Thank you.

Craig J. Barberio - Director-Investor Relations

Management

Good morning everyone and thank you for joining us for our second quarter 2015 earnings conference call. Joining us on today's call will be our Chief Executive Officer, Dennis Gilmore; and Mark Seaton, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. At this time, we would like to remind listeners that management's commentary and responses to your questions may contain forward-looking statements, such as those described on page four of today's news release, and other statements that do not relate strictly to historical or current fact. The forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and the company does not undertake to update forward-looking statements to reflect circumstances or events that occur after the date the forward-looking statements are made. Risks and uncertainties exist that may cause results to differ materially from those set forth in these forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause the anticipated results to differ from those described in the forward-looking statements are also described on page four of today's news release. Management's commentary contain and responses to your questions may also contain certain financial measures that are not presented in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles, including personnel and other operating expense ratios and success ratios. The company is presenting these non-GAAP financial measures because they provide the company's management and investors with additional insight into the operational efficiency and performance of the company relative to earlier periods and relative to the company's competitors. The company does not intend for these non-GAAP financial measures to be a substitute for any GAAP financial information. In the news release that we filed today, which is available on our website, www.firstam.com, the non-GAAP financial measures disclosed in management's commentary are presented with and reconciled to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures. Investors should use these non-GAAP…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Mark Hughes with Sun Trust. Please proceed. Your line is live.

Mark Douglas Hughes - Suntrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · Sun Trust. Please proceed. Your line is live

Yeah. Thank you very much. Good morning. Dennis J. Gilmore - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning, Mark. Mark E. Seaton - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Good morning, Mark.

Mark Douglas Hughes - Suntrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · Sun Trust. Please proceed. Your line is live

The refi you expected normalized at about 1,500 orders per day in June. Should it hold steady at 1,500 orders or will it drop a little bit from here? Dennis J. Gilmore - Chief Executive Officer & Director: No. At this stage, I think it will hold around our range. It could drop a little. It's really interest rate dependent, though. So we're running around that number, so I think it's a good number for the rest of the year at this stage.

Mark Douglas Hughes - Suntrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · Sun Trust. Please proceed. Your line is live

In your revenue per order, the historic relationship between the transaction size and the value of the property versus your revenue, are you doing better these days in terms of capturing more of that? Dennis J. Gilmore - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, we're getting – a couple of things that are helping us. One is housing prices naturally are rising, that's certainly helps our revenue per order. We're also getting more orders in – I'm sorry – a higher mix of our business in some of the higher priced areas like California and Texas. So those are really the key drivers in what's driving the revenue per order per purchase transaction.

Mark Douglas Hughes - Suntrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · Sun Trust. Please proceed. Your line is live

Okay. And then the incentive comp, was there any catch up in the quarter? Did you over accrue or catch up from Q1? Mark E. Seaton - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: There was a little bit of catch up just in the sense that we book our bonuses and our 401K accrual based on expected earnings for the year and since our earnings have been really rising better than our expectation there was a little bit of a catch up Q2, but I wouldn't say it was material though.

Mark Douglas Hughes - Suntrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · Sun Trust. Please proceed. Your line is live

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Mark DeVries with Barclays.

Mark C. DeVries - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst · Barclays

Thank you. For the second straight quarter your commercial revenues have grown at nearly 30% clip year-over-year. I know you said you expect that to slow over time, but should this strong growth rate persist through the latter half of the year? Dennis J. Gilmore - Chief Executive Officer & Director: This is Dennis. Yeah, we did. We have a very strong commercial quarter again, again with our revenues up 29%. And we've had a number of strong quarters, actually a number of strong years at this point. We have a good momentum going into the second half of 2015, and I think that momentum will carry us into 2016. With all that said, it's my expectation that we'll start to see some moderation of commercial growth rate. Now, this is still running at a very elevated marketplace right now.

Mark C. DeVries - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst · Barclays

Okay, got it. You posted very strong margins during the quarter. You guided to 10 to 12 and came in above that. I guess what I'm trying to get a sense is how much of that is driven by the outperformance in commercial versus how much might have come from better expense management on your residential side? Dennis J. Gilmore - Chief Executive Officer & Director: It is definitely both, but we've gotten really good operating leverage in this business just overall. Our success ratio came in a 47% for the quarter, significantly better than our target of 60%. And when we look at it on a yearly basis, for the first half of the year we're running at 52%, 53%, again better than our 60% success ratio. So we're getting leverage across the complete business right now.

Mark C. DeVries - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst · Barclays

Okay. But any sense for how much of the margin improvement just came from the better, more favorable mix of commercial in the quarter? Dennis J. Gilmore - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Again, it's a blend from both our residential and our commercial.

Mark C. DeVries - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst · Barclays

Okay. All right. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Eric Beardsley with Goldman Sachs. Eric Beardsley - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Hi, thank you. I was wondering if you could share any data points that you're seeing in July so far in terms of year-over-year growth in purchase orders as well as any trends in commercial? Dennis J. Gilmore - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Specifically on the residential side, we are in the normal seasonal decline on our purchase – on our spring buying season right now. I will say again that the spring selling season for us has been very strong. We classified it is healthy for sure. Right now through the July 20 timeframe, we're up 6% on a year-over-year basis. So strength continues into July. Eric Beardsley - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Got it. That's on open or close? Dennis J. Gilmore - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Open. Eric Beardsley - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Open, okay. And on the commercial front, in terms of the moderation that I guess it's hard to call if and when that happens but would you actually expect to start to see year-over-year declines in ARPU or volume, or are you actually expecting it just to level out at current run rates? Dennis J. Gilmore - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Again, it's my expectation that we'll just start to see it probably more level out. At some point, we're going to not see 30%-plus growth rates on a quarterly basis. So I think we'll start to see the market to level out. But again, I've been wrong on that call now for two quarters in a row. It's a good problem to have, but the market still is very strong. Eric Beardsley - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Got it. So if we…

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Bose George with KBW. Bose George - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc.: Hey, good morning. Dennis J. Gilmore - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning. Bose George - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc.: Just one on commercial, during the Investor Day, you had broken out your share in Commercial and you noted that the agent side you're about 10% below the direct side. Can you just talk about the potential growth in that channel over the next, say, 12 months to 18 months? Mark E. Seaton - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Well, it's something we're very focused on. Historically our commercial agency business just hasn't been an emphasis for us, so we really haven't participated heavily in that market, but we feel like we have advantages and we feel like we can definitely gain revenue and gain share, because we know the customers and we're starting to penetrate that market more and more. So I think over the next year or two, you'll definitely start to see us increase our commercial agency business. Bose George - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc.: Okay, then great. Thank you. Just switching over to the – in New York there was – they refinanced the rate cut. Just wanted to get an update on the potential impact of that and has that gone into effect yet, or isn't that still kind of being negotiated? Dennis J. Gilmore - Chief Executive Officer & Director: The reduction in the Refinance rate, if I'm not mistaken, is going into effect right now. So it's kind of happening right now. And from our perspective, it really will not make a material difference to us at all. We primarily play in New York in a commercial perspective. We have more of a limited residential footprint. Bose George - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc.: Okay, great. Excellent. A quick one on the tax rate, the 36% number, is that good, going forward? Mark E. Seaton - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: We think of 36% as a good normalized rate. However, for the rest of this year, just in Q3 and Q4, we think it'll be more around the 35% range just because, as I mentioned, we're getting more of a mix of insured versus non-insured income and we don't really pay – generally, we don't pay state taxes on insured income. And because of some changes that we've done on the annuity side of the investment portfolio, we think those are going to last for at least the rest of the year. So I would say the tax rate for the rest of the year should be about 35%, but longer term after that, we think a normalized rate is more closer to 36%. Bose George - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc.: Okay, great. Thanks. Dennis J. Gilmore - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from John Campbell with Stephens, Inc.

John Campbell - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst · Stephens, Inc

Hey, guys, good morning. Congrats on a great quarter. Dennis J. Gilmore - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you.

John Campbell - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst · Stephens, Inc

Just back to the title pre-tax margin range, you guys said 10% to 12%. I think, at the end you said you were basing that on a $1.2 trillion market. MBA was out yesterday; I think they revised up to like a $1.35 trillion or so market in 2015. If that plays out, just curious about the sensitivity to you guys. Is there a rule of thumb – Mark, I don't know if you've done this – but is there a rule of thumb just for the margin impact for every, call it, $100 billion or so, of incremental origination? Mark E. Seaton - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: There's not. We've talked about hitting a 10% to 12% margin on a full year basis excluding any realized gains or losses, and we've said that we could do that in a $1.2 trillion – somewhere between $1.2 trillion and $1.5 trillion, so it's not that sensitive. And that also assumes 35% refi mix, 65% purchase mix. So I think once we get over a $1.5 trillion dollar market, that's when we can start talking about something higher than the 10% to 12% range, but it's not – the difference between $1.2 trillion and $1.35 trillion for origination, it's not material to us really in terms of our margin target.

John Campbell - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst · Stephens, Inc

Got it. And then back to commercial, I don't know if you guys have this type of granularity, but can you suss out the refi versus the purchase on the commercial side? Mark E. Seaton - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: We used to track that, and we can. I don't have those numbers here. We used to track commercial refi and commercial purchase, and we have all the data; but really the price differential between a commercial purchase and a commercial refi, even though there's a difference, it's not nearly as meaningful as it is on the residential side. So for management purposes, how we manage the business, we don't really look at it that way.

John Campbell - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst · Stephens, Inc

Got it, got it. That makes sense. And then good job on hitting the success ratio. I think you said 47%. How do you expect that to trend out over the next two quarters? And then is that 60% goal, is that kind of a medium-term type goal, something we should be thinking about for 2016? Dennis J. Gilmore - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, it is. The 60% is a good term – a good goal for us over a longer term, and we will be volatile in any one quarter depending on the magnitude of the change up or down, but we're running strong right now. We're really showing the leverage on this business. Again, half of the year of 2015, we're running at 52% right now. So we're doing very well against our success ratio objectives.

John Campbell - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst · Stephens, Inc

Excellent. Thanks, guys. Dennis J. Gilmore - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

[Operator instruction]. Our next question comes from Kevin Kaczmarek with Zelman & Associates. Kevin Kaczmarek - Zelman & Associates: Good morning, guys. When you're considering the effects of the October 3 trade implementation, a lot of our industry contacts say there's going to be – they think that the market share winners will include underwriters, direct operations and large agents. And I was wondering, do you guys have a sense of what percentage of your agent order flow is from very small agents? I'm just trying to get a sense of how much market share might be up for grabs. Mark E. Seaton - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: I would say, Kevin, generally speaking, it's the 80-20 rule. We've got about 6,500 agents in the company and 80% of the revenue comes from the top 20% of the agents. So, it's definitely heavily concentrated for the bigger agents. Kevin Kaczmarek - Zelman & Associates: Okay. And sorry, one more question on the commercial. At this strength, it's hard not to wonder about it. But can you talk about where you're seeing the strength now? Like, were there any big transactions in the quarter, like, did the GE commercial property sale have any effect, if you were involved there? Can you give us some color on the drivers, such as their geographies or maybe private equity buyers that are driving a lot of this strength this year? Dennis J. Gilmore - Chief Executive Officer & Director: It's really is broad-based. It really goes across all of our geos and across all our market segments. Clearly, we had some large transactions in the quarter, but we just – our overall number of transactions increased and the size of those transactions decreased. So, again, broad-based strength across all of our segments. Kevin Kaczmarek - Zelman & Associates: Okay, great. Thanks. Dennis J. Gilmore - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Jason Deleeuw with Piper Jaffray. Jason S. Deleeuw - Piper Jaffray & Co (Broker): Yeah, thank you and good morning. I'm just kind of wondering the visibility you guys have for commercial activity as we go into the second half of this year. What is the lag in terms of the openings versus the closings for commercial? Is it similar to residential or is there a difference? And can you just kind of give us a sense for the type of visibility, how you guys get visibility into commercial activity going forward? Mark E. Seaton - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: The visibility is very difficult. Like on the residential purchase side, we know that a transaction's going to close, for the most part, 60 days after it opens. On a residential refinance side, we know it's going to close 50 days after. The commercial side, it's really all over the board. We can open up and order and close it two weeks later. We can open up an order and close it 12 months later. So that's what makes forecasting the business very tricky. So we feel like we have a healthy pipeline of orders that we did, but it's very difficult to tell which quarter they're going to actually close in. Jason S. Deleeuw - Piper Jaffray & Co (Broker): Got it. And then, Dennis, I was wondering, I was hoping to get your thoughts here on the sustainability of the residential home purchase market strengths. What are you looking at? What metrics are you looking at that gives you confidence that we can sustain? Dennis J. Gilmore - Chief Executive Officer & Director: I mean really we look at just a tremendous amount of data and personally I feel better…